"markmeredith2002" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 
> The 5 yr trend is meaningless - the trend for violent crime was
> significantly up during the 80s and then it unexpectedly and
> dramatically turned down in the 90s, then flattened out near the end
> of that decade.  All sorts of studies came out in the 90s supposedly
> proving that this or that particular program was reducing crime in
> this or that city, but in retrospect we now know that crime was 
> going down in all large cities, even ones not doing this or that.  

Yes. Thats key to look at.
...
 
> I was on the DC committee that originally came
> up with the DC course idea a couple yrs before 93 at which time MMY
> trashed it saying the M-effect had already been proven enough.  

Which is too bad if there is a ME effect. But perhaps M has the same
reservations he had with the Kaplans "we really don't know what the
effect would be." Or he has figured out, he is a smart guy, that the
FF and Iowa crime rates do not seem to have been significantly
affected by ME effect and that ME is just a smoke and mirrors "dog and
pony show". Who knows.

The research payoffs are huge if there is an ME effect. In a quick
search, it appears that the collective law enforcement budget for
local police and sheriffs is at least 70 billion per year. Add federal
and state and its probabably at least 120 billion. Add corrections
facilities probably 200 billion. And thats not even counting the total
social costs which might exceed 500 billion per year. 

If ME could be shown to reduce crime 20 %, for a cost of 5 - 10% of
current LE costs, it would be worth annual contracts for "virual LE"
of  say 6 billion / year. (5% of 120 bil). 

How much would you invest in tight comprehnsive research to obtain a 6
billion annual contract. The presnt value of such is worth at least 60
billion. 100 billion plus if you assume the contracts will grow over
time as more value is found. 10 % of the lifecycle value of the
contracts would be quite cost effective -- yielding a $10 billion
research budget. Way more than needed.

The point is, if M. wants immense funds for implementing "the total
vision", facilitating and enabling top rate comprehensive ME research
(a la 100 observations / see below) would be hugely cost-effective,
paying itself back many fold.

What are the costs? Conducting a study of 100 observations as I
outlined, 10 cities, 10 interventions over time per city, would not be
that expensive. Particularly "back in the day" when you had tons of
"free labor" practicioners who would even pay for facilities, aka
"course fees". Set up 10 ME/rounding centers and simply track the
participation. Almost zero cost. Collect crime and social data. Cost,
next to nothing. Promote the research opportunity and turn datasets
over to researchers at multiple universities to crunch it and publish
it how they see fit. The researchers might even have to cough up
research dollars to help defray costs. Analysis costs, next to nothing.

But that train has passed. All the free labor, course fee paying ME
techs are now tied to mortgages or impovershed. 

Maybe the peace palaces could be good data sources. 20-40 peaace
palaces over 3-4 years, tracking their programs. That would the crime
and social data could be a great research data set.

Or travelling pundits. Have 3-4 teams of 108 tour the country, 6
months in each locale. 

Or go back and collect data crime and social data, and tm program/
rounding/ME numbers for all the European courses in the 70s, 
Fairfield dome, Purusha locations, and long term course centers. There
is enough exisiting, yet to be pulled together, data to create a
wonderful research data set tht could be turned over to multiple
independnet, credible, established researchers. If there is an effect,
they will find it. Without all the TMO researcher bias issues.
















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