--- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > If the DC crime rate was > > > > relatively flat during the 90s, maybe that's an ok methodology. But > > > > metro cities throughout the nation experienced a dramatic drop in > > > > crime rate starting around 1992-1993 and continuing for several yrs > > > > and therefore the study can't prove its point w/o controlling for > > > > this major factor. > > > > > > They did, by "predicting" what the crime rate *would* have > > > been for that period that year on the basis of the previous > > > five-year trend. It's true that there might have been > > > *somewhat* less of a reduction if the crime rate had started > > > going down in early 1993, but you would have no reason to > > > see the sharp, sudden drop they measured during the project > > > on the basis of the decline you're talking about (much less > > > the return to "normal" a few weeks after the study). > > The 5 yr trend is meaningless - the trend for violent crime was > significantly up during the 80s and then it unexpectedly and > dramatically turned down in the 90s, then flattened out near the end > of that decade. All sorts of studies came out in the 90s supposedly > proving that this or that particular program was reducing crime in > this or that city, but in retrospect we now know that crime was going > down in all large cities, even ones not doing this or that. > > I'm saying the study design needs to be revisited due to what we now > know about the unique crime trends in the 90s. As far as the sharp > dramatic drops and returns to normal, I want to see the actual data > before trusting these describtors of it. > > OF course, akasha is right that even if the statistics hold, you still > need more studies looking at it from different angles. I dont' see > that ever happening. I was on the DC committee that originally came > up with the DC course idea a couple yrs before 93 at which time MMY > trashed it saying the M-effect had already been proven enough. For > some reason he consented when hagelin revived the idea in 93, but I > don't see him agreeing again and I can't see the tmo ever getting > nearly enough people to participate in such an experiment. > > So what's going to be the practical result of all these half or 3/4 > baked M-effect studies? >
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