Brian
I wish I knew more biology. My guess would be that lots of what
evaporates in the morning comes back in the afternoon so that a
conventional rain gauge with evaporation carefully prevented gives a
false impression.
But we would only be changing the CCN concentration over the sea. The
concentration values over land are so much higher that we cannot have
much effect. What happens after we spray depends on what the winds are
doing. My engineer's simplified model is that the first effect is we
cool the sea surface. This will reduce the evaporation rate but also
increase the temperature difference between sea and land to give a
stronger monsoon. More CCN will also reduce the size of cloud drops
which inhibits rain over the sea to leave more to fall over land. Then
cooler air over land will reduce evaporation rates there. The may also
be other effects to do with breaking waves and air bubbles but I think
that the first four are the main ones having a private 3 to 1 tug of war.
We may be able to influence the outcome by choosing the times and places
we do the spraying. We want to be able to adjust these in the light of
day-to-day observations. It is like have a steering wheel and brakes on
a road vehicle, much better than using fixed wheel angles or commands
downloaded from a read-only memory.
Stephen
Emeritus Professor of Engineering Design. School of Engineering,
University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Scotland
s.sal...@ed.ac.uk, Tel +44 (0)131 650 5704, Cell 07795 203 195,
WWW.homepages.ed.ac.uk/shs, YouTube Jamie Taylor Power for Change
On 01/06/2015 14:01, Brian Cartwright wrote:
Thanks, Stephen, but isn't it true that most CCN over the Amazon are
of biological origin?
To put it in very plain language, the typical assumption about where
rain comes from is that it blows in from the ocean. I'm interested to
what extent it is pulled in by forests. Do you think deforestation and
degradation of vegetation on drylands create weather dead zones, by
losing the biological capacity to transpire moisture?
Thanks to all for your input!
Brian
On Monday, June 1, 2015 at 7:53:52 AM UTC-4, Stephen Salter wrote:
Hi All
Below is a map from Ben Parkes PhD thesis which tested the idea
for coded-modulation of the CCN concentrations in a climate model.
Marine cloud brightening in a pink sea area will increase
precipitation in the black target area. The blue bits will dry
it. These blue bits are in reasonable agreement with the Jones
Haywood Boucher paper which said bad things would happen if we did
MCB off Namibia.
It seems that there are plenty of pink places which can rescue the
Amazon but not many climate modeller who are interested in
replicating the Parkes work. If anyone asks I can send them maps
for the world-wide effects of 89 spray regions and an explanation
of the coded modulation idea. Understanding why spray south of
the Aleutians will help the Amazon ought to be worth a prize or two.
The next bit would be to test marine cloud brightening according
to the phase of el Nino and Monsoons.
Stephen
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