> "Last month was the wettest June the UK had seen since detailed > records began in 1914." > > That's only a 93 year data series, rather than the 241 years available > for England and Wales (where the June record of 1860 still stands). >
Some background here: http://www.climate-uk.com/page5.html > > Now, add in the fact that the values are calculated from spot > > measurements, and the second highest may well have been the highest in > > reality. > > Yes, past records may have been overlooked due to poor spatial > coverage missing the highest rainfall areas. > TBH I have no idea. I know that they very nearly lost the entire rainfall series after a hardware change in the '80s/90s, and I did some work on the move a newer, more robust, database in the early '90s, but have had no connection with it since. Which is a shame otherwise I'd have a direct access to the data and be able to talk to the people responsible for the series. > If 200 year events now regularly happen within 10 years, we've got a > very strong signal in the data making detection and attribution an > easier task. If we have thousands of data series, it's not that > surprising to find a few where two 200 year events happen within 7 > years of each other. True, but we are looking at regions here, rather than cities so the numbers of series involved would not necessarily be that high. That said I do take the point (in fact I think I made it) that it's still too early to draw a conclusion. > > I am also happy enough to accept that the average summer might get > drier, but the number of wet outliers simultaneously might go up > sufficiently to compensate. But is that actually predicted? Here's where I read it: www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/2005/clim_green/slide44.pdf It's a little ambiguous and there are caveats there. I admit that I should get round to tracking down the original paper...but then it'd just get added to the "to be read" pile. I think the UK impacts study of 2004 (forget it's proper title) also discusses it. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
