On Jan 18, 5:55 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Don Libby wrote:
> > Today I read a statement in the popular press that strikes me as absurd, but
> > is it true?
>
> > "The world must reduce carbon emissions by 90% by 2030 to avert an ecosystem
> > collapse..."
>
> This is probably based on the +2C "dangerous climate change": it is true
> enough if you equate (the *risk* of) dangerous climate change with "an
> ecosystem collapse".
>
> If, however, you view the +2C threshold as a bit of political theatre
> and a "nice to have" rather believing it heralds an "ecosystem collapse"
> then the sentiment seems a bit extreme.
>
> Mind you, I'm sure someone will be able to attribute some sort of
> (local) ecosystem collapse to AGW. After all, it's already been done
> with frogs (even though they are being killed by a disease which prefers
> cool conditions and which is spread by human activity to populations
> with no natural resistance to it).
>
> James
He's assuming (1) a 2C threshold, and (2) a per capita limit, same for
each human, so the West needs a 90% reduction.
Ironically, he's engaging in unwarranted optimism on one issue:
China's negotiating position is that we impose per capita limits *and*
we need to require that those in the West inherit the carbon that
earlier Western generations put up there. If you add in the
inheritance part it gets even worst for the West. Depending on how
fast the West has to work off it's carbon debt, I guess you might find
that we in the West needs to go negative (that is, fund offsetting
reductions elsewhere in the world.)
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