This general observation regarding last year is not evidence that the impact of climate is small "as a factor". It means that gross measures such as total rainfall are poor indicators, and naturally they would be poor indicators, because crops and other vegetation do not respond to total rainfall or to seasonal averages, etc. In 1988, Prairie Canada (the grain belt) had one of the lowest rainfalls ever, but produced an excellent crop on dryland farms. Every western Canadian farmer knows how sensitive grain production is to drought, which can be the most destructive factor in yields. So, why was 1988 a good crop year for this dry region of Canada, despite the excessive drought? Because the very small amount of rain that fell mainly came in the early spring, timed just right for cereal crop growth. We have to consider (and model) more realistic mechanisms of responses to climate change.
Dan Johnson [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Apr 15, 11:58 am, "Michael Tobis" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Although drought is frequently listed among the causes of the sudden > spike in food prices, world grain production was at record levels last > year. So climate change as a factor is apparently small, at least as > yet. > > A reader of my blog points to this interesting report on current world > food supplies: > > http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/ai465e/ai465e01.htm > > mt --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
