Michael Tobis wrote:
> The NY Times has a story which attributes part of the problem to
> Australia no longer growing rice, though interestingly they seem to be
> growing wine grapes.
>
> The article is accompanied by a map of estimates of future
> agricultural productivity by region in a 2080 climate change scenario.
> It assigns rapid growth to a few cooler regions and severe contraction
> to many warmer ones.
>
> http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/business/worldbusiness/17warm.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
IMO it's hard to justify the term "rapid" to a change that is nowhere as
high as 1% per year in the worst cases. Moreover, it seems that this
analysis (like so many others) does not actually attempt a prediction,
but merely performs a sensitivity analysis in which it is assumed that
there is (almost?) no adaptation or technological development. Don't
forget, the same scenario that causes this climate change also implies
that the poor countries are at least 10x richer than at present!
If anyone present wishes to bet with me that agricultural production
will actually decline in Zimbabwe (to mention a topical example) over
any reasonably long interval in the future, then we should be able to
arrange a deal.
Actually, no, scratch that, I'd be willing to consider *any* country of
your choice, although I may not accept all offers (some countries may
have good reasons to reduce food production, external to climate change).
James
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