Hi,
I currently have a discusion with a skeptic. I am trying to get the
point across that the radiation balance of the earth can only be
influenced by the three factors 1) solar radiation, 2) albedo and 3)
absorption of long wave radiation by the atmosphere (see here:
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faq-1.1.html). If we have high
average temperature during El Nino, and low during La Nina periods,
then this *seems* to contradict that. I understand that in El Nino,
warm ocean water releases heat to the atmosphere, and during a La Nina
the cold ocean water soaks up that heat. Since we measure surface
temperatures and not deep ocean temperatures, there is no
contradiction. Is that correct? Would it also be correct to conclude
that long term changes in ocean currents therefore cannot change the
average temperature of the earth (disregarding feedbacks), but just
local climates, because the amount of energy that can be released/
soaked up by the oceans is finite? (The guy I have the discussion with
seems to be a fan of William Gray)
Thanks,
Oliver
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