Indeed this would be a serious setback in the short term, inevitably. As James points out on his blog, it will also provide an interesting test of model fidelity. I think it will be of some use polemically if it verifies and of some use scientifically in either case.
Note that there is substantial decadal variability so such a hiatus is to be expected sooner or later. David Appell has a nice terse summary and an instructive graphic. http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2008/05/coming-global-cooling.html As a sort of tarnished silver lining, if this pans out, when things bounce back people will overestimate the rate of warming yielding some overcompensation for imminent underestimation. mt On 5/1/08, Raymond Arritt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Tom Adams wrote: > > "Average temperatures in areas such as California and France may drop > > over the next 10 years, influenced by colder flows in the North > > Atlantic, said a report today by the institution based in Kiel, > > Germany. Temperatures worldwide may stabilize in the period." > > > > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU.evtnk6DPo&refer=worldwide > > They showed these results at the EGU meeting a couple of weeks ago. > When Keenlyside said that internal decadal variability could offset > expected warming over the next decade, I shuddered... certain people > will use the spurious break in the trend as an excuse to delay > addressing the long-term problem. > > Ray > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
