On Apr 28, 5:14 pm, Raymond Arritt <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
> Alastair wrote:
> > The IPCC
> > have not included exchange of heat with the ocean as a factor,
> > presumably because the exchange is always temporary.
>
> This is incorrect. The climate models referenced in AR4 are coupled
> ocean-atmosphere GCMs, which include exchange of heat, mass and
> momentum between the atmosphere and ocean.
>
> Ray
I was not criticising the IPCC climate models (although they are
wrong. :-)
I was trying to answer the question posed: Why do El Nino's cause
global warming?
The IPCC FAQ at http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/FAQ/wg1_faq-1.1.html
says:
"There are three fundamental ways to change the radiation balance of
the Earth: 1) by changing the incoming solar radiation (e.g., by
changes in Earth’s orbit or in the Sun itself); 2) by changing the
fraction of solar radiation that is reflected (called ‘albedo’; e.g.,
by changes in cloud cover, atmospheric particles or vegetation); and
3) by altering the longwave radiation from Earth back towards space
(e.g., by changing greenhouse gas concentrations)."
Oliver wanted to know which of these three causes the warming during
an El Nino.
Because the IPCC are writing about radiation balance, they have
omitted the fourth factor involved in heat balance and that is input
to and output from ocean storage of heat. Of course that factor is
included in the ocean atmosphere coupled general circulation models
but it is not included in the FAQ.
It seems to me that during an El Nino the water collected in the Warm
Pool floods back over the Pacicfic Ocean. The surface then loses heat
as latent heat which rises, condenses, and radiates blackbody
radiation both upwards cooling the climate system, and downward
raising the surface air temperature giving the effect of warming the
planet. It cools and warms the planet at the same time!
It's an interesting problem.
Cheers, Alastair.
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