The thread was about 'sensitive dependence' in the sense of chaos theory - abrupt and major climate shifts on decadal timescales in particular as a result of small changes in initial conditions. We are talking about abrupt 'major climate shifts' around 1910, the mid 1940's the late 1970's and 1998/2001.
See for instance Tsonis et al (2007) 'A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts' - find it at https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/aatsonis/www/2007GL030288.pdf - and Swanson et al (2009) "Has the climate recently shifted. You can find a discussion under 'warming interrupted: much ado about nothing' at realclimate. 2 to 3 decades of no warming from 1998 is fairly significant I would have thought - but I am not realclimate. It is foolish to continue to ignore this and concentrate on one statement for which you think you have a 'simple' answer. On Mar 3, 8:52 pm, Bart Verheggen <[email protected]> wrote: > In the trend of global average temperature over the past 35 years > (0.17 degrees per decade for HadCRU, GISS and NCDC) there is no sign > of a change in such trend during the past 10-12 years. > > An apparent plateau in temperature only exists when specific start- > and endpoints are picked, as well as a specific temperature series > (HadCRU as opposed to GISS or NCDC). It is therefore not a robust > feature of the temperature change, plus the period is too short to > unequivocally see the trend (0.17 deg/decade over 1975-2009) rise > above the yearly variability of the weather (sometimes exceeding 0.2 > degrees). > > See some graphs of all three temperature series > here:http://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2010/03/01/global-average-tem... > > Bart > > On 2 mrt, 23:34, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]> wrote: > > > David - you may quibble about reasons or significance but outright > > denial is not a good look. > > >http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/global_tempera... > > > On Mar 2, 11:54 am, "David B. Benson" <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > On Mar 1, 3:01 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]> > > > wrote:> ... > > > > ... the current warming hiatus ... > > > > does not exist by simple inspection of the decadal > > > GISTEMP averages I posted previously.- Tekst uit oorspronkelijk bericht > > > niet weergeven - > > > - Tekst uit oorspronkelijk bericht weergeven - > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
