Robert, We see that your infatuation with Tsonis et al. continues.
Perhaps it is a bit premature to claim no warming for the next 10 or 20 years. After all, the Arctic sea-ice is still melting. The latest data on sea-ice extent shows that the cycle is running nearly identical to that of 2007. The maximum extent is due this month and then we will then have about 6 months to watch the recession during the annual melt season. While we are at it, have you noticed that the UAH and NOAA data indicates January to be a rather warm month? That in spite of the cold and snow over the Eastern US and also over Northern Europe. Then too, it looks like the solar cycle is beginning to pick up, with more sunspots being reported, as happened just before 1998. I would not be surprised if 2010 comes in as a rather warm year, maybe even warmer than 1998. E. S. ------------------------------- On Mar 3, 4:46 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]> wrote: > The thread was about 'sensitive dependence' in the sense of chaos > theory - abrupt and major climate shifts on decadal timescales in > particular as a result of small changes in initial conditions. We are > talking about abrupt 'major climate shifts' around 1910, the mid > 1940's the late 1970's and 1998/2001. > > See for instance Tsonis et al (2007) 'A new dynamical mechanism for > major climate shifts' - find it > athttps://pantherfile.uwm.edu/aatsonis/www/2007GL030288.pdf > - and Swanson et al (2009) "Has the climate recently shifted. You can > find a discussion under 'warming interrupted: much ado about nothing' > at realclimate. 2 to 3 decades of no warming from 1998 is fairly > significant I would have thought - but I am not > realclimate. > > It is foolish to continue to ignore this and concentrate on one > statement for which you think you have a 'simple' answer. > > On Mar 3, 8:52 pm, Bart Verheggen <[email protected]> wrote: > > > In the trend of global average temperature over the past 35 years > > (0.17 degrees per decade for HadCRU, GISS and NCDC) there is no sign > > of a change in such trend during the past 10-12 years. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
