On Mar 3, 1:46 pm, Robert I Ellison <[email protected]>
wrote:
> ... We are
> talking about abrupt 'major climate shifts' around 1910, the mid
> 1940's the late 1970's and 1998/2001. ...
Sorry, but I don't see that by simply using the Arrhenius formula and
using A=0.333 of AMO (as an internal variability index), all on a
decadal basis. Here it is.
OGTR for 2xCO2 = 2.304 A= 0.333 RMS= 0.022 R^2= 0.991
decade GTA AE residual AMO
1880s -0.275 -0.258 -0.017 +0.052
1890s -0.254 -0.236 -0.018 -0.017
1900s -0.259 -0.247 -0.012 -0.124
1910s -0.276 -0.243 -0.033 -0.205
1920s -0.175 -0.179 +0.004 -0.138
1930s -0.043 -0.044 +0.001 +0.150
1940s +0.035 -0.013 +0.048 +0.107
1950s -0.020 +0.011 -0.031 +0.138
1960s -0.014 -0.006 -0.008 +0.003
1970s -0.001 -0.013 +0.012 -0.241
1980s +0.176 +0.145 +0.031 -0.098
1990s +0.313 +0.325 -0.012 +0.009
2000s +0.513 +0.524 -0.011 +0.187
2010s ??.??? +0.690
So all but 0.9% of the variance is explained
just by these two factors; looks fairly simple
to me. [Note the prediction for serious continued
warming in this decade.]
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