*11% rain deficit overall, surplus in south * **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 24 The South-West monsoon has run up a deficit of 11 per cent for the country as a whole as on June 23, an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. This represented a ‘spectacular' improvement year-on-year on the disastrous 54 per cent deficit recorded during the comparable period (up to June 25) last season. The year 2009 season had witnessed the worst drought in three decades. Excess rain Nine met subdivisions have returned ‘excess' rainfall so far this season (four last year); ‘normal' in 11 (four); ‘deficient' in 11 (11); and ‘scanty' in five (17 last year). Interestingly, the maximum surplus rain (+214 per cent) is shown as having been recorded in western Rajasthan, where the monsoon is yet to set in. As on Thursday, the monsoon has just about reached fringes of Bihar-east Uttar Pradesh, a long way off to the east of west Rajasthan. The surprise bounty for west Rajasthan is attributed to the non-seasonal rains triggered in the region by a weakened circulation of Super Cyclone Phet early this month. Saurashtra (+42 per cent); Himachal Pradesh (+82 per cent); and Jammu and Kashmir (+40 per cent) also have benefited from early rains without having had to wait for the monsoon. Deficit regions Some of these areas are currently witnessing maximum heating as a stubborn upper air trough has prevented soothing easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal from penetrating the region. While monsoon has been surplus rain over the southern peninsula (+16 per cent), the three other major geographical regions have reported varying, though not overly worrying, deficits. Northwest India has only seven per cent deficit, central India 18 per cent, and east and northeast India, 21 per cent. But the status of some individual met subdivisions with scanty or deficient rainfall merits attention. The individual deficits range from 21 per cent in Assam and Meghalaya to as much as 85 per cent in west Uttar Pradesh. Current weather conditions, however, promise to alter at least some of these figures favourably during the days ahead. Still, overall, there has been a tendency for rains to be tentative over parts of central and east-central India, which, according to some forecasting agencies, could be the overall pattern going forward as well. The IMD has said that it would come out with an updated long range forecast on Friday with respect to expected monsoon performance for the rest of the season. IMD may likely stick to the ‘normal' monsoon (if not an upgrade) forecast what with a friendly La Nina reportedly brewing in the east Pacific (as against the feared alter ego and suspected monsoon-killer, El Nino, last year). It said in an outlook on Thursday that conditions are becoming favourable for the advancement of monsoon into remaining parts of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, more parts of Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. A crucial low-pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. It is likely to become ‘well marked' by Friday. The IMD says the ‘low' might track to the northwest (towards Orissa-Jharkhand). But a ‘low' is known to take a more westerly track during an active phase of monsoon such as now, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecaster and Advisor to the Department of Science and Technology. The system is forecast to run into a western disturbance approaching from the northwest and set up clouds over the Gangetic plains, and rain in some places, bringing some respite from the severe heat. Satellite imagery on Thursday showed convective clouds over parts of Orissa, north coast Andhra Pradesh, central Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Orissa and Chhattisgarh in the east as well as Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka on the west coast during the next two days. Scattered rainfall is likely over Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the IMD outlook said. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/06/25/stories/2010062553481700.htm -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
