*Slight monsoon lag may extend hold-up over east UP * **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 28 Monsoon flows across the Arabian Sea may have slightly weakened ahead of an expected fresh spurt from July 1 (Thursday) onwards, according to latest updates. The unforeseen hold-up, though not as marked as the one during June 18 to 24, may set back the monsoon onset over east Uttar Pradesh by at least three days. The flows are not currently strong enough to sustain a low-pressure area/cyclonic circulation but for whose influence the monsoon would not be able to make much progress. Speaking to Business Line, a group of meteorological experts said that the normal date for onset over east Uttar Pradesh is June 14. The expectation was that entire Uttar Pradesh would get covered latest by June 30. But as of Monday, east Uttar Pradesh is already behind schedule by 14 days. The onset over east Uttar Pradesh may not happen before July 4, the experts said. In this manner, there could be a cascading impact on the expected onset over Delhi. The likely onset date could be July 5 (Monday) or thereabouts. But parts of northwest India could receive rains during the intervening period, thanks to the presence of a prevailing western disturbance. An India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said that isolated rain or thunderstorms would occur over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Rajasthan and West Uttar Pradesh. NURSERIES IN UP The transplantation in Uttar Pradesh happens between the first and the third weeks of July. But the nurseries are in need of rains ahead of this. Though the delay could cause some concern for farmers, the July forecast for 98 per cent rains and August with 102 per cent could be reassuring enough. But there is also no way to ensure a monsoon coverage that is evenly spread across spatial and temporal scales, the experts said. At best, the system progresses in fits and starts only. On Monday, an IMD update said that the northern limit of monsoon continued to pass through Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Indore, Seoni, Pendra, Ambikapur, Daltonganj, Gaya, Muzaffarpur and Raxaul. During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, widespread rainfall was reported from the Northeastern States while it was fairly widespread over West Bengal, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh and along the west coast. The seasonal trough aligned northwest to southeast across the plains in the north passed through Ganganagar, Pilani, Aligarh, Sultanpur, Daltonganj and Kolkata before dipping into east-central Bay of Bengal. On the other hand, the offshore trough along the west coast shifted alignment southward from Konkan coast to Kerala coast on Monday. WESTERN DISTURBANCE Sunday's western disturbance over north Pakistan and neighbourhood persisted on Monday. It is expected to affect the western Himalayan region and plains of northwest India during the next three to four days. The system is already bringing rains over parts of the northwest, which are in the nature of pre-monsoon showers. This has brought relief from the severe heat in the region. The IMD update further said that an upper air cyclonic circulation may form over Bihar around Thursday, which could rev up the flows and monsoon over adjoining Uttar Pradesh. Satellite imagery revealed convective (rain-producing) clouds over parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, the Northeastern states, southeast Arabian Sea, southeast Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea. Forecast until Thursday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Lakshadweep, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Gangetic West Bengal, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Kerala. Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, interior Karnataka, Uttarkhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha. ** -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
