*Monsoon covers entire country 10 days ahead: IMD * **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, July 6 India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared on Tuesday that the monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, covering the entire country about 10 days earlier than normal. This was achieved despite mounting rain deficits to the east of the country with east Uttar Pradesh (-71 per cent) and west Uttar Pradesh (-50 per cent) leading the pack of six worst affected Met sub-divisions. HEAVY RAINS The rains received over the last two days in the Northwest (save Uttar Pradesh) have been heavy to very heavy at times. They had largely made up for the prolonged delay and helped bring down the mercury by several notches, apart from boosting farm prospects. But monsoon watchers in north and northwest India said that classical monsoon onset conditions were conspicuous by their absence wherever it rained. They were of the view that ‘convergence rain' set up by monsoon easterlies and a prevailing western disturbance may have offered the perfect cover for declaring the onset. As if on cue, weather charts late on Tuesday revealed that the easterlies may have been compromised yet again by flows from the North Arabian Sea, now blowing straight into the latter's path. This has confined the convergence rain to over west Rajasthan; easterlies have ceased to exist over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and have become southerlies. FRESH ‘LOW' The IMD, meanwhile, traced a fresh low-pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal on Tuesday. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) saw a largely westward movement for the system, which would bring another round of rains for the peninsula. The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services suggested that this could be the first weather event during the season with the signature of the evolving La Nina conditions written over it. La Nina, which is the exact reverse of suspected monsoon-killer El Nino, has been found to coincide with a largely successful Indian monsoon. The CPC saw increased chances of above normal rainfall for parts of peninsular India and parts of Bay of Bengal during the week ending July 12. But, as has been forecast, Arabian Sea flows are likely to enter another weakening phase towards the end of the week. MJO ACTIVITY The lull may last three to four days, and is likely to be broken by a fresh Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave activity around Friday, says the ECMWF. Resulting wet cover is forecast to be prominent over peninsular India, with a causative ‘low' expected to spearhead the activity from west-central Bay of Bengal. ‘Low' forming in the North Bay alone can set up classical monsoon conditions in the northwest India, but there is no sign of one spinning up any time soon. The IMD said in an update on Tuesday that the monsoon-friendly offshore trough from Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast persisted. Forecast until Friday said that widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Konkan and Goa. WIDESPREAD RAIN Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Gujarat State, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka and Kerala also during this period. In the northwest, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over Haryana, Punjab, Chandigarh, Delhi, east Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days and lose intensity thereafter. A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Orissa, Gujarat, East Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. Extended outlook until Sunday spoke about the possibility of an increase in rainfall over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
