*IMD upgrades monsoon to ‘above normal' * **
** ** ** ** ** ** ** Vinson Kurian Thiruvananthapuram, June 25 The country is heading for an above-normal monsoon this year, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its updated long-range forecast on Friday. The IMD has estimated that seasonal rainfall would be 102 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) with a model error of four per cent. MAJOR UPGRADE The first stage of long-range forecast issued in April had estimated that the monsoon would be normal with seasonal rainfall of 98 per cent. Friday's update is a significant upgrade, and is being attributed to brewing La Nina conditions (reverse of monsoon-killer El Nino) in the east equatorial Pacific. The IMD said that there is very high probability for La Nina to develop during the season, which favours stronger than normal monsoon. The last time the country had an above normal monsoon was in 2007 that saw 105.7 per cent of the LPA being delivered. Again, this was achieved on the back of a prevailing La Nina, bolstered by a second consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another monsoon enabler. The IOD mimics El Nino-La Nina conditions locally within the Indian Ocean basin. This time, too, models indicate the possibility of a weak positive IOD emerging, but not strong enough to significantly alter the rainfall scenario. WEAKER OVER CENTRAL A month-wise disaggregated forecast said that July could deliver 98 per cent of the LPA and August, above normal rainfall at 101 per cent with a model error of 9 per cent. The months of June, July, August and September contribute 18 per cent, 33 per cent, 29 per cent and 20 per cent share respectively to the June to September rainfall, says Dr Akhilesh Gupta, operational forecaster and Advisor to Department of Science and Technology. As for the four broad geographical regions, the IMD said the monsoon is likely to be 102 per cent over northwest India; 103 per cent over northeast; 99 per cent over central India and 102 per cent over south peninsula, all with a model error of 8 per cent. Giving his outlook for the next 10 days, Dr Gupta said that rainfall over entire peninsular India, especially the west coast, is likely to be good. It may scale up July 1 onwards owing to strengthening of monsoonal flow over Arabian Sea. At present the wind flow over the northwest India (including Delhi) is predominantly westerly in the lower levels. OUTLOOK FOR DELHI The seasonal trough is currently north of its normal position allowing westerlies to flow south of this trough. After transiting east Uttar Pradesh, the monsoon may cover areas of west Uttar Pradesh during the weekend and early next to reach Delhi anytime after July 1 (Thursday), Dr Gupta said. Northwest India is currently under the influence of a western disturbance which may hang in there for three more days, bringing partly cloudy sky conditions and isolated thunderstorms/light rainfall. Given these, severe heat wave conditions could be wished away but day temperatures may not fall below normal. The low-pressure area currently located over the North Bay of Bengal off Orissa coast may move inland and weaken. But this might help formation of a cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas by Monday. Two major developments are likely to take place from Tuesday onwards. The western disturbance may start moving eastwards and help reduce the westerly dominance. The cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh would start moving west-northwestwards to bring the seasonal trough back to its normal position. The above two scenarios are expected to set the stage for further advancement of monsoon over the Gangetic plains. Beginning Wednesday, there may be fairly widespread rainfall activity over Bihar, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh and parts of north Madhya Pradesh. With this, it is expected that monsoon may cover remaining areas of Bihar and Jharkhand, parts of Madhya Pradesh and may enter into certain areas of west Uttar Pradesh from Tuesday to Thursday. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/06/26/stories/2010062651301600.htm -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en.
