On Mon, Aug 30, 2010 at 03:51:10PM -0400, Steve Weinstein wrote: > > On the other hand, all the computer models in the world don't mean squat if > the storm decides to change it's mind and double back on itself. It's > happened before! Wasn't there a hurricane about 5 or 6 years ago which was > supposed to veer out to see and not be a threat and then it did a 180, > doubled back on itself, and hammered South Florida?
Pretty much every year. :) Here's the last one that went over me, TS Flo; note the NOAA "predictions" vs. the actual path. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al06/loop_5W.shtml If you step through the above graphic for the US locations, they had it headed for: Alabama Missouri South Carolina North Carolina Louisiana Virginia West Virginia Georgia Tennessee Florida As an actual storm, it hit _only_ Florida. Also, note the constant predictions of it becoming a hurricane - which it never did. 1 out of 10 for location, and a fail on the strength prediction... that's about average. But they sure do generate pretty graphics. I knew a guy down in the islands who could outrun the average 'cane on his trimaran - in fact, his well-tested strategy was to run down to Venezuela or so whenever one was definitely coming into the neighborhood - but barring that, most of us move too slowly to make a difference, and could even run straight into the path while trying to move to safety. Random, as any mathematician could tell you, is random. :) > But as far as Earl is concerned for the NY/Long Island area, I'm not > planning on removing anything from the boat until I check the forecasts > again on Thursday night. If, by that time, it looks like the same forecast > (some rain and a few gusts of wind) then I'm going to ignore it... Seems like a reasonable call to me, skipper. :) -- OKOPNIK CONSULTING Custom Computing Solutions For Your Business Expert-led Training | Dynamic, vital websites | Custom programming 443-250-7895 http://okopnik.com _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html
