Steve, Indeed, I wish I could be in Oyster Bay to enjoy its hospitality and also its snug harbor... It is a better hurricane hole than a lot of our choices... with no appreciable fetch as I see it.
The holding here in Gloucester where we are anchored is a little too spongy and delicate for my tastes. Many have dragged just in normal anchoring. Its nowhere near as nice as Oyster Bay, NY As you point out, you are safe. Sorry my earlier humor attempt got the best of me! <grin> We were originally only going to stay in Gloucester through August before heading back south (we will see you & also work the Sailboat Show in Annapolis by Oct). So going down toward the South and West was within our plan, and going early will allow us to get in better holding and shelter to be better prepared if it does develop further.. But you are right who knows what and where it will be up here. It is Russian Roulette with a big gun with more chambers than some guns. Still, as it is set to go to CAT 5 in a few hours and moves ever closer, I want to Prepare for the Worst, hope for the best. No cost and possible benefits. We are sponsors of Chris Parker, and got a recent email on developments, as follows as of this Monday night: NOAA revised numbers at 7pm: now 939mb. Earl may go to Cat5 Hurricane in 12-24hrs. . . . W-component motion necessitates raising of Tropical Storm Warning for T&C "Once N of 30N, Earl should continue turning gradually N then NNE...passing near or within 200mi E of Hatteras & NC/VA OuterBanks Thu2 night...paralleling mid-Atlantic US Coast NNE-ward Fri3...then accelerating NE-ward in a higher-shear environment as an approaching TROF/FRONT lifts Earl out to the NE. Earl is likely to remain a Hurricane until he's N of 45N. Problem is...Earl may lie sufficiently-far-West that parts of NewEngland are in his NE-ward path: --NovaScotia may have a 50/50 chance of direct landfall of Hurricane Earl Sat4. --E half of Maine & SE NewEngland (Nantucket & SE MA & RI) all have about 1-in-4-chance of landfall late Fri3 night (Sat4 morning Maine). --Rest of NewEngland has 1-in-5-chance of landfall. --Hatteras & NC OuterBanks 1-in-5-chance of landfall Thu2 night. --Immediate Coast from VA-DelMarVa-NJ-NYCity 1-in-10-chance of landfall (even if there's landfall, wind will be from N which will tend to blow water OUT of ChesapeakeBay, so NO surge expected)." Definitely something for prudent boaters to watch. Ed Ed & Sue Kelly aboard USSV Angel Louise DC Based SKYPE Phone # (202) 657-6357 please leave message for us You can see map and travel progress at http://tinyurl.com/EdandSue On Aug 30, 2010, at 10:30 PM, Steve Weinstein wrote: The difference is, Ed, that with a sailboat at a mooring - at least up here in the NY area - there aren't any hurricane holes I have to move the boat to - wait a minute, I'm ___in____ a hurricane hole! The only exposure deep down into Oyster Bay where you anchored and I'm moored, the only 'open' path is out of the N or NNE. Even when Bob trashed the east coast from NY up to Newport, we sustained minimal damage on our respective moorings and actually only two boats broke their mooring lines (from their mooring ball) and sailed across the harbor. Having said that, if decision time comes, I'm only an hour drive to the boat and within 3 hours can have the bimini and dodger off, the jib hauled down and stowed below, and the main trussed up from mast to clew. And still have time to double or triple the mooring lines to the ball. Don't forget, we're in an extremely muddy bottom area and all the moorings are on large mushrooms. I'm on a 500 lb mushroom even though "specs" call for only a 350 lb for my displacement. And since the moorings are set the first week or three in April, this time of the year they're well and truly buried. I'm talking like about 5 feet down into the muck. As regards, flying, though, I agree 150%. I'd rather be on the ground look up and wishing I were there than in the air looking down wishing I were there! On some long distance x-country's I've spend more than one extra night in a motel 'cause I didn't like what flight service was telling me. Even though I'm rated in light twins (actually probably going for a tail-dragger endorsement in my friend's Stearman - I've got about 8 hours in that puppy and LOVE it!!!) about 95% of my hours are in light singles and I'd rather not be in a position where I just don't have the power or ability to climb out above stuff. Give me a lousy changed on route forecast and a 2500 grass strip and I'm landing! Anyway, I'm not familiar with the Gloucester area and places to run to up there so early pre-planning in your case is most likely the right choice. I'd rather be saying "that was a pain in the ass" than calling my insurance company! Best to you and Sue and we're waiting in Oyster Bay for your arrival! And tell Norm and Jan to get their butts down here also! Steve Steve Weinstein S/V CAPTIVA 1997 Hunter 376, Hull #376 Sailing out of Oyster Bay, NY All outgoing mail protected by VIPRE A/V ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ed Kelly" <[email protected]> To: <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, August 30, 2010 6:49 PM Subject: Re: [Liveaboard] Amended Post = = = Re: Earl Too Close Steve, The theory on waiting till the night before and checking then has a name. Its been proven and works well most of the time. Its officially called the "Ray Nagin" Approach and has always been proven accurate in his city of New Orleans, except for once, about five years ago this week. But nothings perfect, right? I just saw it hit Cat Four. I am a chcken sailor and pilot. As one of my IFR trainers taught, "There are old Pilots, and there are Bold PIlots, But there are no Old Bold Pilots!" <grin> We checked a marina and were told that they have a policy that all must move off moorings if there is a storm! What wimps. Ed On Mon, Aug 30, 2010 at 6:09 PM, Steve Weinstein <[email protected]> wrote: > Okay, I just heard the 6/p news and it's now "official" according to the > local NBC weather guru and, presumably, the NWS and NOAA. > > Anyone living on the coastline from the mid-Atlantic region up through > Maine > and New Brunswick is warned to "carefully monitor the forecasted tracks of > the storm" between now and Friday. > > So I guess this isn't really an amendment of my earlier post this > afternoon. > Watch and monitor through Friday..... > > Hopefully this will be one of those no-big-deals as it swings away from > the > coastline. > > Although, to tell the truth, if I were anywhere between Jax and Maryland > I'd > probably be making "just-in-case" plans right about now! > > > Steve Weinstein > S/V CAPTIVA > 1997 Hunter 376, Hull #376 > Sailing out of Oyster Bay, NY > > All outgoing mail protected by VIPRE A/V > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Steve Weinstein" <[email protected]> > To: <[email protected]> > Sent: Monday, August 30, 2010 3:51 PM > Subject: Re: [Liveaboard] Earl Too Close > > >> I looked at the NOAA site and also this morning's news carried a short >> segment on it. I doubt we'll see much of anything up hear in the NY, Long >> Island Sound area other than a few showers and some mild gusting on >> Friday >> and possible Saturday morning. >> >> According to the NWS, at this point in time, all 6 or 7 computer models >> show >> that puppy heading back northeast into the Atlantic by the time it comes >> close to our latitudes. The mid-Atlantic states might get some strong >> wind >> and rain bands but they're also supposed to miss the brunt of the storm. >> >> On the other hand, all the computer models in the world don't mean squat >> if >> the storm decides to change it's mind and double back on itself. It's >> happened before! Wasn't there a hurricane about 5 or 6 years ago which >> was >> supposed to veer out to see and not be a threat and then it did a 180, >> doubled back on itself, and hammered South Florida? >> >> But as far as Earl is concerned for the NY/Long Island area, I'm not >> planning on removing anything from the boat until I check the forecasts >> again on Thursday night. If, by that time, it looks like the same >> forecast >> (some rain and a few gusts of wind) then I'm going to ignore it... >> >> >> Steve Weinstein >> S/V CAPTIVA >> 1997 Hunter 376, Hull #376 >> Sailing out of Oyster Bay, NY >> >> All outgoing mail protected by VIPRE A/V >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "spetri" <[email protected]> >> To: <[email protected]> >> Sent: Monday, August 30, 2010 10:09 AM >> Subject: [Liveaboard] Earl Too Close >> >> >>> http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/windSpeeds.asp?storm=Earl >>> >>> -- >>> Stephen Petri >>> S/V Witchcraft, Ranger 33 No. 161 >>> http://www.teamwitchcraft.com >>> >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Liveaboard mailing list >>> [email protected] >>> To adjust your membership settings over the web >>> http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard >>> To subscribe send an email to [email protected] >>> >>> To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] >>> The archives are at >>> http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ >>> >>> To search the archives >>> http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] >>> >>> The Mailman Users Guide can be found here >>> http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Liveaboard mailing list >> [email protected] >> To adjust your membership settings over the web >> http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard >> To subscribe send an email to [email protected] >> >> To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] >> The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ >> >> To search the archives >> http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] >> >> The Mailman Users Guide can be found here >> http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html > > _______________________________________________ > Liveaboard mailing list > [email protected] > To adjust your membership settings over the web > http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard > To subscribe send an email to [email protected] > > To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] > The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ > > To search the archives > http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] > > The Mailman Users Guide can be found here > http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html > -- Ed Kelly sailing vessel ANGEL LOUISE - Catalac 12m Skype Cell telephone: 202-657-6357 [email protected] _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html _______________________________________________ Liveaboard mailing list [email protected] To adjust your membership settings over the web http://liveaboardonline.com/mailman/listinfo/liveaboard To subscribe send an email to [email protected] To unsubscribe send an email to [email protected] The archives are at http://www.liveaboardonline.com/pipermail/liveaboard/ To search the archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected] The Mailman Users Guide can be found here http://www.gnu.org/software/mailman/mailman-member/index.html
