First, thanks for expressing your solidarity with my case!
Concerning your considerations what Hamas leaders expected and did not
expect. As you will understand, it is a bit difficult for us to know
what exactly they expected. Certainly, they did hope for popular mass
mobilizations in the region, pressure on Arab/Muslim regimes to take a
stance against Israel, torpedoing the Abraham Axis project, etc.
It is a bit early to make a balance sheet since we are still in the
middle of the war. Still, I would state the following provisional theses
(being aware that this an incomplete list):
1.There has been a huge of global mass mobilizations in solidarity with
the Palestinian people – bigger and longer than in 2003. Antizionism (or
at least strong critique of Israel) is stronger than ever before –
including within the Jewish community.
2.Mass mobilizations are strong in some Arab/Muslim countries (Türkiye,
Morocco, Yemen, Jordan) but not in others. The reason for this is the
huge repression by the dictatorships (most importantly in Egypt which is
of crucial importance for obvious reasons). The resistance in the West
Bank has increased but it is not at the level of the Intifada in
1987-1993 and 2000-02.
3.Hamas leadership most likely expected more from Hezbollah. They are
nationalists first and foremost, so they don’t to risk too much for the
sake of the Palestinians. (Nasrallah was ready to risk much more for
Assad but this was because Syria is crucial for Iranian supplies.)
However, to call the latter actions as “/performative/” is idiotic.
Israel had to evacuate the northern border region for nearly a year now
which puts high costs and public pressure on the Netanyahu government.
The Houthis, on the other hand, did certainly much more in solidarity
actions than Hamas could have expect.
4.Some Arab/Muslim regimes have been under public pressure to cut trade
with Israel (Türkiye) while other manage to continue their treacherous
business.
5.The war has caused gigantic destruction and misery on the Palestinian
people in Gaza.
6.I think nobody expected the Palestinian resistance in Gaza to hold out
for such a long period. This is obviously a huge embarrassment for
Israel and weakens it power of deterrence.
7.Israel today is more isolated, globally discredited and internally
divided than ever before. It has never been so weak. Its economy suffers
a lot. My comrades in Israel have predicted for some time that the
Zionist state will collapse within the next decade. Now, there is an
increasing number of bourgeois commentators in Israel who are also
seriously worried about such a prospect.
8.It is difficult to imagine that an Abraham Axis project could be
implemented in the foreseeable future. Or it might be implemented but
only with such a huge internal turmoil in Israel (because of the
strength of the fascists who hate anything close to a Palestinian
mini-state) and such a huge amount of repression in Arab countries that
it would provoke more destabilizing than stabilizing effects. In my
view, 7/10 transformed the Middle East into an explosive powder keg for
a long time.
Certainly, this is not a complete list. But I leave it with this for now.
Best wishes,
Michael
Am 23.08.2024 um 01:08 schrieb Mark Baugher:
Hi Michael
On Aug 22, 2024, at 6:19 AM, RKOB via groups.io<[email protected]>
wrote:
Dear Mark,
probably my English is not good enough but I am not sure if I ask your question
correctly. Do you ask me why I think Rashad Khalidi has written this? (Of
course, I do not know.) Or did you mean something else?
Best wishes!
My question was a rhetorical question, and it's unclear for an international
list. But first, let me express solidarity with your legal plight, and I hope
there is some recourse remaining in the legal system and that it continues to
pull people together.
Government agencies and private employers US have begun persecuting people for their speech,
notably their opinions on Israel. In my state of Oregon, more than eight-thousand letters of
support were submitted to the state legislature urging that they adopt the International Holocaust
Remembrance Center (IHRC) definition of "antisemitism" [1]. This resolution is
"non-legally binding" but is nonetheless being brought to state legislatures that pass
and rescind laws. So far, 35 out of 50 US states have passed resolutions supporting the IHRC
guidelines by their legislatures [2].
IHRC antisemitism includes
"Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination, e.g., by claiming
that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist endeavor."
That would make investigating Israeli as an apartheid state, for example, an antisemitic act. So too, maybe,
for Shlomo Sand's historical finding that the notion of "the Jewish people" is an invention;
someone might conclude, for this reason, that the right of self determination is irrelevant. Moreover, it
might be deemed "antisemitic" to hold that there was never a mass exile or any justification for
the European Ashkenazim to "return home," or that Israel citizens should not lay claim to the land
but fairly share it instead with the indigenous populations.
I can imagine this "non-legally binding" resolution being a step along the path
of legal repression. Repression including revoking citizenship or residency has been
done in the US past for syndicalists, socialists, anarchists and communists.
Authoritarian forces in the US might use Israel as a bludgeon against groups who want to
change US foreign policy away from forever wars. The reasons may differ and the legal
repression is worse than the US when someone gets sentenced for six month in prison for
their speech,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aDKwrivTzM (closed caption and transcript
roughly translated into English).
Regarding my rhetorical question
fromhttps://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/31706, Theses on World Perspectives:
In the Midst of a Cycle of Wars and Revolutions, I think Khaladi makes two
important points: First, the idea that Hamas could start a regional war is an
idea based on false assumptions about the regional powers; second, a regional
war would only further devastate the people in Gaza and play into the Israeli
goal of ethnic cleansing both Gaza and the West Bank.
My two cents.
thanks, Mark
[1]https://www.ajc.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2020-04/IHRA%20Working%20Definition%20of%20Antisemitism%20Booklet%20Web%20-%203.20.pdf
[2]https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/states-adopt-ihra-definition-of-anti-semitism
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