If you could predict how the financial crisis were to turn out you' could make a lot more money by quitting this translation stuff and shorting the market if you thought it were going to continue falling or picking up stocks at bargain prices if you thought the market was going to recover in the long run. However as Yogi Berra once said: "It's tough making predictions, especially about the future". When speculating about these kind of things, it’s important to be careful about the recency bias.
ご参考まで Recency Bias. We tend to associate more importance to recent events than we do to less recent events (e.g., during the great bull market of '95-'99, many people implicitly presumed that the market would continue its enormous gains forever, forgetting the fact that bear markets have tended to occasionally happen in the more distant past). from: http://www.altruistfa.com/behavioralinvestingpitfalls.htm --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Persons posting messages to not_honyaku assume all responsibility for their messages. The list owner does not review messages prior to posting, and accepts no responsibility for the content of messages posted. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
