me: >> there's no down-side to "crying wolf"? it has no impact on one's >> credibility?<<
Carrol: > One can't be unreasonably unreasonable; there are limits. But actually, one > can make quite a few bad predictions without real loss of crdibility. And > people will certainly remember the correct ones! This is after all the way > real nuts and scalawags maintain credibility (e.g. astrologers), whowe > 'predictions' are nutty on the face of it. < astrologers can get away with it because they aren't talking about anything substantial or controversial. (One reason why people like to talk about sports, TV actors, and the weather is because it doesn't involve any real conflict.) Besides their predictions are always totally ambiguous (Delphic) and can be interpreted any way the reader wants. I try to predict the future, but I know that there are options. A couple of years ago, I predicted what's happening now (to a group of retired Jews) -- though not the same magnitude of melt-down. But I also predicted that the economy could avoid collapse if debt-peonage came back and military spending rose. See http://myweb.lmu.edu/jdevine/SHJtalk040805.htm. -- Jim Devine / "Nobody told me there'd be days like these / Strange days indeed -- most peculiar, mama." -- JL. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
