I wouldn't expect anything on the corporate income tax this year. Obama thinks the statutory rate is too high. Reducing it without losing revenue (with base broadening) is too complicated to gin up in less than six months. I also very much doubt anything happens to mortgage interest or health care. The housing market is still fragile and the health insurance exclusion is bound up with health care reform, in other words, too complicated to deal with quickly.
In the grand scheme of things, the tax side doesn't matter much at the moment. There is no political appetite on either side for expanding the revenue system very much. The bigger impact -- if the Republicans cave on taxes -- is on the spending side. If they don't cave, I'd expect excitement and not the good kind in financial markets. On Thu, Nov 15, 2012 at 9:19 PM, michael perelman < [email protected]> wrote: > Max, I want to believe you. I think that the WSJ's targets are more > likely -- home mortgage deductions, employer provided health care ... > things that will hit the middle class & leave the corps unscathed. > > On Thu, Nov 15, 2012 at 5:59 PM, Max Sawicky <[email protected]> > wrote: > > I was reacting to Michael's premature condemnation of liberal groups for > > their expected acceptance of SS & Medicare cuts. Most will not accept SS > > cuts, and anything that looks like a cut in Medicare benefits will get a > > negative reaction as well. The extent of their power is a different > matter. > > They don't have much. > > > > I think people discount the likelihood that the WH will stand on the 39.6 > > top rate restoration (on 'ordinary' income). I also think there is a good > > chance of increased rates on capital gains, estates & gifts, and > dividends. > > Note in one sense this has been a fight between the deficit reducers and > the > > tax rate reducers, and the former won. > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, Nov 15, 2012 at 3:06 PM, Jim Devine <[email protected]> wrote: > >> > >> michael perelman wrote: > >> >> >> I think I know what the grand bargain will be. Obama will be a > hero > >> >> >> to the left by marginally increasing taxes on the people who earn > >> >> >> more > >> >> >> than $250,000. Then you will cave on Social Security and Medicare > >> >> >> while bragging about his dedication to progressive causes. Also, > in > >> >> >> the name of reforming taxes, he will close the loophole on tax > >> >> >> breaks > >> >> >> that the middle class relies on by, for instance current > collecting > >> >> >> taxes on medical insurance provided by employers. > >> > >> > >> Max Sawicky wrote: > >> >> > Bullhocky. If he does that virtually every leftish group will cry > >> >> > foul. > >> >> > Will > >> >> > not happen. > >> > >> me: > >> >> what power do these groups have when the DP and the GOP unite to > >> >> promote a program? > >> > >> Max Sawicky wrote: > >> > Power is a different question. They don't have much. > >> > >> Power is crucial in politics. One reason for these groups' lack of > >> power is that the DP's leadership knows that they will support the DP > >> as long at it's seen as the lesser of two evils.They're not like > >> "swing voters" to be courted. > >> -- > >> Jim Devine / "Segui il tuo corso, e lascia dir le genti." (Go your > >> own way and let people talk.) -- Karl, paraphrasing Dante. > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> pen-l mailing list > >> [email protected] > >> https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > pen-l mailing list > > [email protected] > > https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l > > > > > > -- > Michael Perelman > Economics Department > California State University > Chico, CA > 95929 > > 530 898 5321 > fax 530 898 5901 > http://michaelperelman.wordpress.com > _______________________________________________ > pen-l mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l >
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