The top 1% starts at $367,000.

Joel Blau

Eugene Coyle wrote:
> Hans,
>
>       You paraphrased a slide thus:
>
> Here is my paraphrase of the slide at 17:40, using Kevin's
> words:
>
> Who is in that 1 percent?
> Every climate scientist.
> Every climate journalist and pontificator
> All academics in OECD (and elsewhere)
> Anyone who gets on a plane at least once a year
> In the UK anyone earning above 30,000 pounds a year
>
> 2 questions:
>       1.  Do you know of US figures on the earnings level that put people in 
> the 1 percent of emissions?
>
>       2.   Can you steer me to the background for Kevin Anderson's slide that 
> you paraphrased?
>
> Gene
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On May 20, 2013, at 9:10 AM, [email protected] wrote:
>
>   
>> Dear Joseph, Gar, Patrick, and others:
>>
>>
>> Here is my thesis, broken down into five points.
>>
>> (1) This late in the game, suddenly and drastically limiting
>> consumption of high fossil fuel products by the prosperous
>> middle class is the best and perhaps even the only way we can
>> initiate the changes allowing the world to stay within the 2
>> degrees limit.  Production measures will follow after the
>> producers realize that their market has started to shrink.
>>
>> (2) You don't need policies to limit consumption.  You can
>> for instance decide no longer to fly without waiting for
>> policies forbidding you to fly or making it too expensive to
>> fly.
>>
>> (3) For instance, if all the subscribers of PEN-L were to
>> decide that from now on they no longer fly to conferences,
>> this would not remain un-noticed and make an impact.  Pen-L
>> might in this way become a pioneer for academia and
>> play a historic role.
>>
>> (4) Once this shift in consumption has begun and say 20% of
>> the population is doing it voluntarily and it has become a
>> cultural force, then we have to put rules in place so that
>> the other 80 percent have to pull their weight too.  If
>> there is a movement with voluntary efforts, ways have to be
>> found to discourage free riders because otherwise this
>> movement will not last.
>>
>> (5) for this purpose, a downstream carbon rationing scheme
>> is the best policy instrument I can think of.  Although I
>> fully agree with Patrick's critique of cap and trade as a
>> bogus solution (I arranged Larry Lohmann's visit in Utah in
>> 2006), I think carbon rationing is immune to the critiques
>> of privatizing the sky and bogus solution.
>>
>>
>> By coincidence, the Bill Totten mailing list last night 
>> emailed a blog by the climate researcher Kevin Anderson,
>> one of the originators of the budget approach to climate
>> change policy.  In this blog, Anderson is not talking about
>> climate science but about economics.  The title of the blog
>> is:
>>
>> Hypocrites in the Air: Should Climate Change Academics
>> Lead by Example?
>>
>> http://kevinanderson.info/blog/hypocrites-in-the-air-should-climate-change-academics-lead-by-example/
>>
>> Anderson makes similar points in this youtube video:
>>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KumLH9kOpOI
>>
>> Around 16:40 he says: 50% of emissions come from 1% of the
>> world's population.  Who are those 1%?  He tells his audience
>> to look in the mirror.
>>
>> Here is my paraphrase of the slide at 17:40, using Kevin's
>> words:
>>
>> Who is in that 1 percent?
>> Every climate scientist.
>> Every climate journalist and pontificator
>> All academics in OECD (and elsewhere)
>> Anyone who gets on a plane at least once a year
>> In the UK anyone earning above 30,000 pounds a year
>>
>> Are we willing to change our lives?  We have that choice.
>> Demand opportunities dwarf supply opportunities in the short
>> run.  We can do this today.
>>
>> Kevin Anderson himself is no longer flying.  He took a train
>> to attend a climate conference in Shanghai.  I know of
>> another climate communicator in England, George Marshall,
>> who has publicly announced over 10 years ago that he is not
>> flying.
>>
>> I myself, Hans G Ehrbar, stopped flying in 2006, made one
>> exception in 2010 which I regret now.  My son in Washington
>> DC had to re-schedule his wedding last year so that I could
>> use Spring break to come by train.  I refused an expense-paid
>> invitation to Singapore for September 2012 because I could
>> not justify flying.  My aunt in Germany, who was like a
>> mother to me, just passed away at the age of 97 without
>> having seen me since 2006 since I no longer fly.
>>
>> If all subscribers to Pen-L would decide no longer to fly
>> but only attend conferences they can reach by bus or train,
>> this would make a difference.  It would set a signal, it
>> could be the beginning of a movement.  It would also be not
>> entirely foolish career-wise, because it is not just one
>> individual.  Your competitors in the job and publications
>> market are not flying either, i.e., it is still a level
>> playing field.
>>
>>
>> Who is in?  Can we establish a list of non-flying economists?
>> Which web page should we use to publicize the growing list
>> of academic economists taking a no-flying pledge?
>>
>>
>> Hans G Ehrbar.
>>
>>
>> ------- Start of forwarded message -------
>> From: Bill Totten <[email protected]>
>> Date: Mon, 20 May 2013 09:01:35 +0900
>> Subject: [R-G] [BillTottenWeblog] Hypocrites in the Air
>>
>>
>> Should climate change academics lead by example?
>>
>> by Kevin Anderson
>>
>> http://kevinanderson.info/blog (April 12 2013)
>>
>> (The arguments outlined in this commentary apply equally to
>> any politician, civil servant, journalist, NGO or business
>> leader calling for stringent mitigation)
>>
>> From the World Bank and PricewaterhouseCoopers through to
>> Stern and the International Energy Agency, analyses
>> increasingly demonstrate how, without urgent and radical
>> reductions in emissions, global temperatures are set to
>> rise by four degrees Celsius or higher - with, as the IEA
>> emphasise, "devastating" repercussions for the planet.
>>
>> But whose responsibility is it to initiate such radical
>> mitigation?
>>
>> *****
>>
>> My partner and I recently arrived in Sicily for a couple of
>> weeks' camping and rock climbing - not exactly sun-kissed
>> limestone (fifteen degrees Celsius and damp), but still a
>> little warmer than the Arctic blasts battering the UK at the
>> moment.
>>
>> As we try to avoid flying we've travelled here by train:
>> Manchester to London and then onto Paris, overnight Paris to
>> Rome, a day strolling between the Pantheon and the
>> Colosseum, before another overnight train to Palermo in the
>> North West corner of Sicily.
>>
>> The journey took longer than flying, but we get a day each
>> way to explore Rome and overnight travel to and from Sicily,
>> so in terms of price and time it isn't that different to
>> flying. But when it comes to emissions I stand by the
>> arguments I made following my train trip to Shanghai in 2011
>> (for work on that occasion). At a system level, trains have
>> an order of magnitude lower emissions than the metal bird
>> alternative - the saving is that significant.
>>
>> If my arguments are valid, surely those of us intimately
>> engaged in climate change should, at the very least, curtail
>> our use of the most carbon-profligate activity (per hour)
>> humankind has thus far developed.
>>
>> For those interested, the arguments I previously posted on
>> the Tyndall Centre website are repeated below. In addition,
>> I've included a few thoughts in response to the comeback
>> often made - "those of us with children can't afford the
>> longer journey times as we have overriding parental
>> commitments".
>>
>> *****
>>
>> Slow and low - the way to go: A systems view of travel
>> emissions
>>
>> When planning the journey from Broadbottom (UK), to
>> Shanghai, and also since my return, I have been asked
>> frequently about the associated emissions:
>>
>> * "I thought trains weren't much better than planes, what's
>>  the difference?"
>>
>> * "Was it worth the effort for whatever you saved?"
>>
>> On the face of it, these and many similar queries are
>> completely reasonable questions to ask. But, in my view,
>> they miss the point, and without trying to be overly
>> provocative (that's for later), I don't think they are so
>> reasonable - particularly from the array of informed experts
>> who asked them. So why do I think the questions are
>> unreasonable - and what would I suggest as an alternative
>> framing for assessing emissions from travel?
>>
>> Analysis
>>
>> The following blog-style analysis is a mix of provocation,
>> parody and some different ways of thinking about emissions
>> from our travel. I've tried to make a coherent case on the
>> basis of argument, but some of the language may not be what
>> you would typically find in an academic paper. Nonetheless,
>> I stand by the well-intentioned thrust of the case and if
>> anyone has any substantive disagreements I'd be pleased to
>> hear them. It is intended to hold a mirror up to the climate
>> change community - and as with all mirrors, it can make for
>> grim viewing. I know: it's a fit 36-year-old who looks in
>> the mirror - but a less fit grey-haired and 49-year-old
>> bloke who stares back at me!
>>
>> My concerns about the questions I've been asked fall into
>> three broad and related categories. They were asked by folk
>> who work intimately on climate change as a system. But not
>> one person asked a systems-level question, 'How are you
>> going to compare the plane and train emissions?' - or -
>> 'Have you thought about rebound, where time saved via faster
>> travel is spent on additional carbon-emitting activities?'
>>
>> Instead, all of the questions relegated climate change to a
>> purely technical, quantitative or efficiency issue - none of
>> which address what we need to do to reduce total emissions.
>>
>> The opportunity costs, rebound effect, carbon intensity of
>> time, technical and financial lock-in/lock-out, early
>> adoption, role models, diffusion and so on, are all concepts
>> the climate change community are familiar with. Asking
>> emissions questions without direct or indirect recourse to
>> any of these is, in my view, neither responsible nor
>> reasonable.
>>
>> Unreasonable reasonableness - another Rumsfeldian paradox
>>
>> The first argument for my concluding the reasonable
>> questions aren't so reasonable relates to it being academics
>> working on climate change (amongst others) who asked them.
>>
>> For the last decade the language of climate change used in
>> proposals for funding, research council calls, brochures,
>> government documents and so on, has been awash with terms
>> such as 'whole systems', 'systems thinking',
>> 'interdisciplinary', and the like. Put us in a room and
>> we'll espouse eloquently the virtues of such approaches,
>> noting if we're to tackle big issues like climate change we
>> have to think on a systems level. But as soon as there's
>> something that can be readily quantified we're like moths to
>> a flame: here's something familiar to our 2000 years of
>> reductionism, some knowledge - but without
>> understanding. The virtues of systems thinking that we were
>> waxing lyrical about moments before are quickly forgotten in
>> the mad scrabble to get to the numbers. We know what to do
>> with numbers and, as Lord Kelvin so persuasively put it,
>> 'When you measure what you are speaking of and express it in
>> numbers, you know that on which you are discoursing, but
>> when you cannot measure it and express it in numbers your
>> knowledge is of a very meagre and unsatisfactory kind'. Well
>> I'm not sure this always holds, and when we do use numbers
>> they have to be meaningful. Isolated numbers tell us little
>> about the system, and worse, they can lead to decisions
>> based only on the bit we can measure. This may be worse than
>> doing nothing or taking random action; at the very least
>> numbers have to be contextual.
>>
>> So having made the argument that systems thinking requires
>> some systems thinking itself, the following sections outline
>> more precisely defined and technical matters that underpin
>> my concern that the climate change community continues to
>> take overly narrow views of systems-level issues. In 2011,
>> we ought to know better.
>>
>> System Saving Number One: Relative dimensions in distance,
>> time and emissions
>>
>> If we accept temperature as an adequate proxy for our
>> various concerns about climate change, then there is broad
>> acceptance we must stay below a two degrees Celsus increase
>> in global temperature. Thus the climate is only really
>> concerned with our cumulative emissions over a relatively
>> short period of time - a period longer than the Broadbottom
>> to Shanghai train journey, but stretching only about as far
>> as 2020 for two degrees Celsus (and for four degrees Celsus
>> sometime around 2030). There is some mathematics behind
>> these dates linked to how high we are already on the
>> emissions curves, the 'real' emission growth trend,
>> realistic peaks and the proportion of our carbon budget
>> we've squandered already. See Beyond Dangerous Climate
>> Change {1}.
>>
>> Coming back to the train and its emissions relative to other
>> transport modes: from a systems perspective, it's a good
>> enough approximation to consider the carbon dioxide per
>> passenger kilometre for planes, trains and automobiles to be
>> similar. Okay, alone in a Ferrari with your foot to the
>> floor will be many times worse than being sardined into one
>> of EasyJet's relatively new aircraft. Similarly, four people
>> cosying up in a small Fiat Panda will knock the socks off
>> any scheduled airline (that is, have much lower carbon
>> dioxide emissions). But put a couple of academics in a
>> diesel family saloon and any disparity in emissions between
>> the modes over the same distance will be lost in the system
>> noise. The difference, of course, arises from the distance
>> we deem reasonable to travel - and really this is less about
>> the distance and more about the time.
>>
>> Attending an 'essential' conference to save the world from
>> climate change in Venice, Cancun or some other holiday
>> resort, is perfectly do-able by plane. However, the rising
>> emission trends don't seem to have registered the sterling
>> work we have achieved at such events. Perhaps if we flew to
>> more of them, emissions would really start to come down - we
>> may even spot some flying pigs en route. Instead, junk the
>> plane and get together with a few other UK speakers heading
>> to the same event, cram yourself in a trusty Fiat Panda and
>> set off for Venice. Somewhere around Dartford, what was
>> previously 'essential' begins to take on a different hue,
>> and by Dover a whole new meaning has evolved. Essential has
>> become a relative term, dependent on: Can we get there by
>> plane? Are our friends also attending? Is it somewhere nice
>> to visit (or name-drop)? Will we be taxied around? Are we
>> staying in a plush hotel?
>>
>> This is where the first major saving resides: slow forms of
>> travel fundamentally change our perception of the
>> essential. We consequently travel less (at least in
>> distance), and given that air travel is the most
>> emission-profligate activity per hour (short of Formula 1
>> and possibly space tourism) the emission-related opportunity
>> costs are knocked into a cocked hat. Of course, as climate
>> change specialists we are exempt from such analysis - our
>> message truly is essential - so we're the exception that
>> should be able to carry on emitting as before.
>>
>> Ah, yes, and business folk - we need them to drive the
>> economy. Tourists are yet another really important economic
>> driver (not to mention the great cultural gains from staying
>> in western-style hotels with like-minded folk and observing
>> other cultures pass by the windscreens of our air
>> conditioned taxis). Next there are the pop stars and
>> celebrities - the world would be such a dull place if they
>> weren't able to prance about at international festivals. The
>> football and tennis players must test their mettle in the
>> international arena - and of course they need their fans to
>> cheer them on.
>>
>> We can then turn to whole industrial sectors' that put
>> forward an equally bewildering array of 'reasons' why they
>> should be the exceptions and exempt from major emission
>> reductions. This extends to government departments, climate
>> change think tanks and some NGOs - with the remaining less
>> deserving sectors and individuals taking up the slack. It
>> really is a puzzler as to why emissions keep on rising - all
>> the more so since fuel prices have rocketed to levels way in
>> excess of any carbon price economists previously told us
>> would collapse the economy! Still, a few more international
>> conferences and guidance from the carbon-market gurus will
>> have us turn the corner on this one, I'm sure.
>>
>> Obviously these caricatures are so far from reality that we
>> don't recognise ourselves in any of them - but nevertheless
>> the message is clear. Travelling slowly forces us to travel
>> much less, to be much more selective in what events we
>> attend, and to endeavour to get more out of those trips we
>> do take. Fewer trips and potentially longer stays: not
>> rocket science - just climate change basics.
>>
>> System Saving Number Two: Iteration, adaptive capacity and
>> indulgences - how to avoid carbon lock-in
>>
>> It may be apocryphal, but I have heard from several
>> reputable sources that China is in the process of
>> constructing 150 new international airports. This perhaps
>> sounds implausible, but China's population is approximately
>> 22 times the UK's, and the UK has around 25 international
>> airports. Proportionately, China would need 550
>> international airports to match the per capita equivalent of
>> the UK. Suddenly their construction rate seems less
>> implausible. Either way, flying to Shanghai sends a very
>> clear market signal: expand your airport. And that is
>> exactly what they're doing right now, so they're reading our
>> repeated signal loud and clear.
>>
>> But how is that worse than expanding the rail network?
>> Firstly, there is potential to radically improve the
>> efficiency of train travel - until very recently efficiency
>> has not been a major concern for the industry. This is not
>> the case for aviation. Jet engines and current plane designs
>> have pushed the orthodox design envelope about as far as it
>> can go; so one to two per cent per annum improvement is
>> about as much as can be wrung out of the aviation industry
>> in the short to medium term. In the longer term things may
>> change, but this will not be within the short timeframe
>> associated with climate change. Consequently, flying now
>> locks the future into a high-carbon aviation
>> infrastructure. By contrast, trains have substantial
>> efficiency potential (though this may be compromised with
>> the very high-speed trains) and, more significantly, trains
>> can run on electricity (many already do) and electricity can
>> be low-carbon (some of it already is). Trains can also have
>> regenerative breaking (tricky with aircraft) and overnight
>> trains can be used to flatten demand curves (and cut back on
>> hotel emissions). Planes are currently locked into
>> high-carbon kerosene whilst trains already have several
>> low-carbon options.
>>
>> So there you have it. Jump on a plane and you send a suite
>> of very clear market signals. Please buy some more aircraft
>> that will operate for twenty to thirty years and have a
>> design life of forty years. Please build some more
>> airports. Please divert public transport funds so passengers
>> (and shoppers) can travel to the airport on low-carbon
>> trains or trams. Please expand the airport car park for when
>> bags are just too heavy to lug on a tram. Please keep
>> producing the black stuff - without it we will have invested
>> billions in an industry dependent on kerosene; lock-in par
>> excellence. They don't tell you all this on the back of the
>> ticket - though there may be some oh so useful advice on
>> carbon offsetting. Again, is it any wonder that emissions
>> aren't coming down when we, the high-emitters, can buy
>> indulgences so easily and cheaply?
>>
>> System Saving Number Three A: Opportunity costs constrain
>> carbon
>>
>> Here we turn to the old chestnut, opportunity
>> costs. Basically if I had flown - and assuming the direct
>> emissions per capita were the same between the plane and the
>> Trans-Siberian Express - then what would I have been doing
>> for the time I wasn't on the train?
>>
>> Let's say the plane took two days - one day each way (UK to
>> Shanghai), while the train took a total of twenty days (ten
>> each way), leaving an opportunity cost period of eighteen
>> days. If at home, I certainly would have been taking the
>> train to and from work each day. I'd probably have had
>> around four longer UK trips, typically at around 650
>> kilometres per return trip. I'd have visited a few
>> rock-climbing venues in my immediate vicinity around the
>> Peak District (say 200 to 300 kilometres in total, probably
>> shared with a couple of others in the car); I'd have watched
>> a few movies, listened to the radio a lot - and all the
>> usual stuff. The total distance travelled would be
>> equivalent to 3000 to 5000 kilometres, that is, very roughly
>> ten to twenty per cent of the Trans-Siberian trip
>> distance. But if I was a regular flyer, in twenty days I may
>> have taken a flight or two, and if I was one of the great
>> and the good this would have been business or first
>> class. Added to this (if we treat offsetting with the
>> disdain it deserves) the opportunity-cost emissions could
>> easily have exceeded those from the full return journey to
>> China by train. And if offsetting had been used, I take the
>> view that the emissions would have been still higher
>> (increased lock-in, reduced incentive for the 'donor' to
>> change behaviour and the economic multiplier effect for the
>> 'recipient'. See: The Inconvenient Truth of Carbon
>> Offsetting {2}. All of this assumes that during my twelve
>> days in China I emitted roughly the same quantity of carbon
>> dioxide per day as if I'd remained at home in the UK. This
>> is probably not too unreasonable, but again if I were one of
>> the great and good, I'd no doubt would have had much higher
>> emissions from further business-class travel to champion my
>> low carbon message in yet more exotic venues.
>>
>> By including opportunity costs, this slow-travel stuff
>> really starts to notch up the carbon savings for those of us
>> who travel a lot - particularly if it includes international
>> travel.
>>
>> System Saving number Three B: The slippery slope: thinking
>> low-carbon engenders thinking low-carbon which engenders ...
>>
>> A final point worthy of a brief note: making the transition
>> from fast to slower forms of long-distance travel may
>> engender slower forms of travel elsewhere. Once we've made
>> such a transition, it becomes more 'natural' to avoid taxis
>> and instead to seek out the public transport, walking or
>> cycling options we espouse for others. Taxis are another
>> market signal for more roads. Jamming our bodies onto the
>> Tube (or Beijing subway), or waiting for the reliable
>> late-night bus from Norwich station to the University of
>> East Anglia, all give much lower carbon signals, especially
>> if supported with the occasional letter, either chastising
>> the London Mayor for not doing more with the Tube and local
>> trains, or complimenting Norwich bus planners - or however
>> we think admonishment and praise should be meted out.
>>
>> So there you have it: my potted account as to why I think
>> the climate change community needs to put its own house in
>> order before wagging its hypocritical finger at others or
>> espousing low-carbon solutions to ministers that we simply
>> wouldn't accept for ourselves.
>>
>> Final thoughts: Can slow travel be justified in a busy
>> university life?
>>
>> My guess is that a common retort to my ramblings will be,
>> 'it's okay for him, I'm too busy to take such a long time
>> off work, it's just not practical - I've got to live in the
>> real world'. But the real world has us flying half way
>> around the world to give banal twenty minute presentations
>> to audiences who know what we're going to say. Even if our
>> talks are riveting canters through the intellectual surf,
>> are they really so important that we have to be there in
>> person and in an instant, before launching off to dispense
>> our pearls of wisdom to another packed house in another
>> exotic location? Isn't our situation emblematic of the
>> problems (such as fast and self-important lives for the few,
>> no time for thinking, reflexivity and humility) that we are
>> abjectly failing to shed any light on?
>>
>> My life is perhaps not as busy as some, but I still clock up
>> a fair few work hours, have meetings to attend,
>> administration to do and research to deliver on. The train
>> was certainly not as simple to organise as a plane - though
>> next time it would be much easier, and I wouldn't worry so
>> much about getting everything perfect and having back-up
>> plans in place. Long and unusual journeys inevitably take
>> more planning, not least to ensure the time spent travelling
>> can be productive. And in terms of cost, the reimbursement
>> system is just not set yet up to support such journeys, so
>> you'll likely have to dip into your pocket, as long train
>> journeys typically cost more than taking to the
>> air. Moreover, receipts don't come with purchases of strange
>> foods from sellers on station platforms and odd bits of
>> accommodation.
>>
>> So what of the work you can do while travelling? I had
>> planned and expected my many hours of mildly enforced
>> confinement to provide a good working environment. But I
>> wasn't prepared for what turned out to be the most
>> productive period of my academic career, particularly on the
>> return journey. During the outward trip, I read a range of
>> papers and managed to write another on shipping and climate
>> change. However, after having spent twelve days in China
>> bombarded with fresh experiences, new ways of thinking and
>> new information, the return journey was a wonderful
>> opportunity to begin to make sense of it all, embedding much
>> of it in a paper which a colleague and I had been working on
>> for the past year. This was the first time I had actually
>> put pen to paper with regard to that research.
>>
>> The train's ability to remove many of the choices that
>> clutter my daily life gave me the seclusion and
>> concentration I needed to set to work on what has proved a
>> very challenging paper. By the time Moscow arrived, I had
>> completed about 75 per cent of the writing; this would have
>> taken another six months had I flown to Shanghai.
>>
>> From a productivity perspective, the twenty-day train
>> journey easily trumped the two-day
>> flight. Counter-intuitive perhaps, but I remain convinced
>> that a carefully planned train journey not only delivers
>> lower emissions by an order of magnitude, but facilitates
>> the process of research in a way that universities and
>> daily life simply can't match. Add to that the 'slower'
>> ethos that such journeys engender, and I think there may be
>> early signs of making a meaningful transition to a
>> low-carbon future - or at least a bridging ethos - while we
>> wait for the panacea of low-carbon technologies to become
>> the norm.
>>
>> *****
>>
>> Addendum: Children, families and slow travel ...
>>
>> Amongst the wealth of responses to the original blog, a
>> recurrent theme was "I really can't see how those of us with
>> young children could spend so much time travelling slowly
>> when we could, by flying, be back home quickly and spend
>> more time with our families". On a more altruistic note,
>> several colleagues with children suggested that they "should
>> perhaps avoid any longer-distance travel, as the emotional
>> pull to return quickly is inevitably very strong".
>>
>> I certainly can empathise with the challenge of balancing
>> work and family pulls on our time. Ultimately, climate
>> change is mostly about families and friends - but surely not
>> only ours in the here and now?
>>
>> If the science is broadly correct and the emissions trends
>> continue, then we're heading for enormous changes for many
>> families even in the short term. These families may not be
>> our own - much more likely they'll be those who have not
>> contributed to the problem, have little income and live in
>> areas geographically more vulnerable to climate change
>> impacts. So the choice is about whose family and friends
>> matter most. We choose to fly back to be with our family as
>> quickly as possible - so as not to be away for more than a
>> few days. But the repercussions (okay, not on a one to one
>> basis perhaps) are for another family in another place to
>> lose their home, suffer food and water shortages, social and
>> community pressures and wider conflicts - to put at risk the
>> very fabric of their families and communities.
>>
>> Moreover, our reducing time away from our families by using
>> fast and high carbon travel also has longer-term
>> repercussions for our own children. Are we rushing back for
>> the sake of our own families or for 'our' individual
>> engagement with our own families? This is a subtle but I
>> think important distinction. Are we concerned about our
>> families only whilst we're around to enjoy and benefit from
>> them, or are we more altruistically concerned regardless of
>> our own immediate returns? When we're dead and buried our
>> children will likely still be here dealing with the legacy
>> of our inaction today; do we discount their futures at such
>> a rate as to always favour those family activities that 'we'
>> can join in with?
>>
>> I'm not talking about this solely in an abstract manner;
>> most of my immediate family have gone on to more ethereal
>> activity leaving me with an uncle in Scotland and another in
>> Australia who is getting on in years and not in the best of
>> health. I last saw him in 2004 and have since stuck to the
>> difficult decision not to return to visit him. Okay I may
>> relent one day, but for now I'm unable to reconcile my
>> desire to share family memories with my fine Ozzie uncle and
>> the fact that my visiting him jeopardises others' abilities
>> to lead good lives with their families.
>>
>> Life in a changing climate is awash with such thorny issues
>> and tough decisions. To me the guiding principle (supported
>> by the mathematics) is that those of us responsible for the
>> lion's share of emissions are the same group that need to
>> drive emissions down - and fast.
>>
>> Technology alone cannot deliver the low carbon promise land
>> in a timely manner. The future is in our hands now, our
>> lifestyles, behaviours, practices and habits. If we are
>> truly concerned about families (others as well as our own -
>> now and in the future), then perhaps the overseas trip is
>> not as 'essential' as when we could travel quickly by
>> plane. Alternatively, if we still consider it an important
>> trip, we must assess whether the additional time away from
>> our family as a consequence of slower travel is compensated
>> by the value of our message. The decisions just got
>> tougher. Of course, it could be that we are that shining
>> example of an exception to the rule - enlightened beings
>> preaching real mitigation to our parishioners 32 thousand
>> feet below.
>>
>> *****
>>
>> Is it really surprising that the hoi polloi are indifferent
>> to our pronouncements and politicians pay only lip service
>> to our analyses, when those of us working on climate change
>> exhibit no desire to forego our own high-carbon lifestyles?
>>
>> Links:
>>
>> {1} http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html
>>
>> {2} 
>> http://kevinanderson.info/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/The-inconvenient-truth-of-carbon-offsets-Pre-edit-version-.pdf
>>
>> http://kevinanderson.info/blog/hypocrites-in-the-air-should-climate-change-academics-lead-by-example/
>>
>> TO POST A COMMENT, OR TO READ COMMENTS POSTED BY OTHERS, please click
>> the appropriate link at the top or bottom of
>> http://billtotten.wordpress.com/2013/05/20/hypocrites-in-the-air/
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