I am starting with the easy issues in this message and work myself up to the theoretical questions which I find more challenging in later posts. Please correct me if you see errors in my thinking, or otherwise help out of you can improve the argument.
Someone said that my refusal to fly has a very small effect because the plane would fly anyway whether or not the seat I would have taken is empty. Here the answer is that with my decision not to fly I do not affect the plane which I did not take. But the money I did not pay to the air line company will mean fewer investement into new planes and fewer scheduled flights in the future. I want to add that I also expect that my taking Amtrack leads to more trains in the future which has an autocatalytic or accelerator effect because more trains mean more convenient schedules which means even more demand for trains. In Salt Lake City, the amtrack trains come through at 2 am, which is terribly inconvenient. Amtrack trains apparently usually have empty seats but the sleeping compartments are filled up. Therefore I think I have most impact if I book a seat only and not a sleeping compartment, because then I don't bump others who decided not to take the train because they no longer could book a sleeping compartment. I must weigh that against my own convenience, because if I end up not taking the train at all because I do not allow myself to book a sleeping compartment then Amtrack loses business too. The Amtrack web site says that the carbon footprint of trains is 20% below that of a plain ride. I think this is regrettable. It should be 90% below. But fuel efficiency has not been a priority for trains in the past. Every train has a restaurant car and a panorama car. This is a good opportunity to talk to strangers about climate change, but hauling an entire hotel across the country together with the passengers has its cost in fuel efficiency. Cheap fuel left its mark on the design on the present rolling stock. It is to be expected that the next generation of trains will be much more fuel efficient. The possible efficiency improvements for trains are huge, while airplanes are already near the frontier of efficiency for its technology. If Amtrack gets more revenue this also means they have more money to upgrade the rails which leads to faster and more comfortable trains in the future. It will also lead to more of the rail network being electrified, which will be a quantum jump in carbon footprint improvements over the present diesel trains here in the West. To sum up, I see at least five autocatalytic effects: my taking the train now will lead in the future to more convenient schedules (attracting more riders) to more fuel-efficient rolling stock (better carbon footprint for every trip) to faster trains because of better rails *attracting more riders)) to a smoother more comfortable ride because of better rails (attracting more riders) to electrification (better carbon footprint). Marginal improvements will not get us to the 2 degree goal in time. If we can do it it has to be because of us passing some desirable tipping points. This is why I am paying attention to these autocatalytic effects. Hans G Ehrbar _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
