On Fri, Jan 23, 2009 at 6:06 PM, Eugene Deon <[email protected]> wrote: > I've been trying to tune my leave estimation strategy by solving for the > exact values of my commonly considered estimation variables as to minimize > the sum of squared errors between my strategy estimates and all the leaves > in Quackle's "superleaves" file. > > So far my variables include only: > > -single letter values > > -double/triple/quad-letter penalties > > -vowel/consonant imbalance penalties > > -bonuses for number of tiles in CANISTER > > -a couple of letter pair values (QU, YY, IY, FF, ING)
Why all the special cases? The value of a leave is how much it contributes to the next play. So... enumerate every possible play that can be made next with the unseen tiles and the leave. (This sounds like a lot of computation but it isn't) For each word, calculate the probability of drawing the tiles you need to make the play given the tiles you are holding (ie the leave). (I have the code that enumerates that probability function) Do this for other leaves, and compare. Special cases like letter pair values etc fall out in the wash; in fact, it works for larger leaves the same way (and faster, as the play choices are more limited) Graham
