Peter
What are the statistical chances of the near future? or do
we take a gut feeling of probability and say that we are in
for an exceptional run?
GarryM
----- Original Message Follows -----
> Hi,
> With the win of Al Jameel at Te Rapa in Race 8 today, it
> brought to an end the longest losing run in the 10 years I
> have been doing my RaceBase software ratings (Margins
> Method). An incredible 35 races without a top pick win.
> The strike rate overall is 26%. This means the chances of
> a losing streak of 35 or more races is 1 chance in 38,000
> (roughly) races. The stats include about 20,000 races so
> the losing streak fell slap-bang in the middle in terms of
> being 'due'. Within this 35 races, the top pick finished
> 2nd 12 times and 3rd 9 times, showing how fickle
> statistical fortune can be. Peter H.
>
>
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