Hi,
With the win of Al Jameel at Te Rapa in
Race 8 today, it brought to an end the longest losing run in the 10 years I
have been doing my RaceBase software ratings (Margins Method).
An incredible 35 races without a top pick win.
The strike rate overall is 26%. This means the chances of a losing streak of
35 or more races is 1 chance in 38,000 (roughly) races. The stats include
about 20,000 races so the losing streak fell slap-bang in the middle
in terms of being 'due'. Within this 35 races, the top pick finished 2nd 12
times and 3rd 9 times, showing how fickle statistical fortune can
be.
Peter H.
Hi Peter,
Maybe the following needs to be taken into
account too:
1. The fields at Paeroa and Avondale were some of
the worst imaginable formwise and only the desperate would have bet at those
two meetings :-] Especially with Avondale being the first bog in the
north of the autumn/winter period.
2. Tracks have been firmer than normal in the
north [apart from the aforementioned Avondale meeting] and we have had a
mixture of dry and rain-affected tracks in the North Island overall. And few
true winter gallopers have hit form in their preferred
conditions.
3. Hastings was abandoned and may have given you
an opportunity to snag a winner [Or increased the run of outs to 44
:-]
All three points above could have combined
to influence the run of outs. That said I could be talking a
load of rubbish ... we'll never know.
Regards
Neil F
