the gut feeling is working...now add Mactomack...you beaut!
Garry
----- Original Message Follows -----
> This is so exciting. I can hardly contain myself.
> Since the drought was broken, after R2 at Wingatui it has
> now picked 5 of the last 7.
> Ah ... statistical heaven.
>
> Peter Harrop wrote:
> >
> > Hi Garry,
> > There is a 1 in 38,000 chance that there will be a run
> > of 35 or more 'non-winners' at any time. It could start
> > today, or it may not ever happen again. RaceBase picked
> > the winner of Race 1 at Wingatui, so we are on a mini
> > run of 4 wins from the last 6 races :) It is quite weird
> > though. It seems that whenever I make a positive
> statement, a la last week, the statistical gods want to
> > put me back in my place.
> >
> > garrymillar wrote:
> > >
> > > Peter
> > > What are the statistical chances of the near future?
> > > or do we take a gut feeling of probability and say
> > > that we are in for an exceptional run?
> > > GarryM
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message Follows -----
> > > > Hi,
> > > > With the win of Al Jameel at Te Rapa in Race 8
> > > > today, it brought to an end the longest losing run
> > > > in the 10 years I have been doing my RaceBase
> > > > software ratings (Margins Method). An incredible 35
> > > > races without a top pick win. The strike rate
> > > > overall is 26%. This means the chances of a losing
> > > > streak of 35 or more races is 1 chance in 38,000
> > > > (roughly) races. The stats include about 20,000
> races so the losing streak fell slap-bang in the middle in
> > > > terms of being 'due'. Within this 35 races, the top
> > > > pick finished 2nd 12 times and 3rd 9 times, showing
> > > > how fickle statistical fortune can be. Peter H.
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
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