Hi Garry,
There is a 1 in 38,000 chance that there will be a run of 35 or more
'non-winners' at any time. It could start today, or it may not ever
happen again. RaceBase picked the winner of Race 1 at Wingatui, so we
are on a mini run of 4 wins from the last 6 races :)
It is quite weird though. It seems that whenever I make a positive
statement, a la last week, the statistical gods want to put me back in
my place.
garrymillar wrote:
>
> Peter
> What are the statistical chances of the near future? or do
> we take a gut feeling of probability and say that we are in
> for an exceptional run?
> GarryM
>
> ----- Original Message Follows -----
> > Hi,
> > With the win of Al Jameel at Te Rapa in Race 8 today, it
> > brought to an end the longest losing run in the 10 years I
> > have been doing my RaceBase software ratings (Margins
> > Method). An incredible 35 races without a top pick win.
> > The strike rate overall is 26%. This means the chances of
> > a losing streak of 35 or more races is 1 chance in 38,000
> > (roughly) races. The stats include about 20,000 races so
> > the losing streak fell slap-bang in the middle in terms of
> > being 'due'. Within this 35 races, the top pick finished
> > 2nd 12 times and 3rd 9 times, showing how fickle
> > statistical fortune can be. Peter H.
> >
> >
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
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