This is so exciting. I can hardly contain myself.
Since the drought was broken, after R2 at Wingatui it has now picked 5
of the last 7.
Ah ... statistical heaven.
Peter Harrop wrote:
>
> Hi Garry,
> There is a 1 in 38,000 chance that there will be a run of 35 or more
> 'non-winners' at any time. It could start today, or it may not ever
> happen again. RaceBase picked the winner of Race 1 at Wingatui, so we
> are on a mini run of 4 wins from the last 6 races :)
> It is quite weird though. It seems that whenever I make a positive
> statement, a la last week, the statistical gods want to put me back in
> my place.
>
> garrymillar wrote:
> >
> > Peter
> > What are the statistical chances of the near future? or do
> > we take a gut feeling of probability and say that we are in
> > for an exceptional run?
> > GarryM
> >
> > ----- Original Message Follows -----
> > > Hi,
> > > With the win of Al Jameel at Te Rapa in Race 8 today, it
> > > brought to an end the longest losing run in the 10 years I
> > > have been doing my RaceBase software ratings (Margins
> > > Method). An incredible 35 races without a top pick win.
> > > The strike rate overall is 26%. This means the chances of
> > > a losing streak of 35 or more races is 1 chance in 38,000
> > > (roughly) races. The stats include about 20,000 races so
> > > the losing streak fell slap-bang in the middle in terms of
> > > being 'due'. Within this 35 races, the top pick finished
> > > 2nd 12 times and 3rd 9 times, showing how fickle
> > > statistical fortune can be. Peter H.
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/racebase/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
