You know how I feel about your data. Sox can still take the division.
I don't think it's 93% vs 5.5%. More like 80/20. It can all change in one week. They have to play the games. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 10:57 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Murder's Row Here are the odds based on the baseball-prospectus simulation: Average wins by position in AL East: 100.2 93.2 88.5 76.2 66.1 AL East <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/aleast.png> W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Yankeespsodds.php> 79 47 .595 100.1 61.9 93.24358 5.94766 99.19125 .50389 .49115 Red Sox <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/RedSoxpsodds.php> 73 53 .556 92.6 69.4 5.55098 60.68733 66.23831 7.06311 15.53897 Rays <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Devilpsodds.php> 69 57 .583 89.3 72.7 1.20543 19.73397 20.93941 -5.91593 -8.73648 Blue Jays <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Bluepsodds.php> 58 67 .524 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00203 .00203 .00106 -0.03042 Orioles <http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Oriolespsodds.php> 52 75 .447 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox have a 60% chance of getting the wildcard. Rays 19%, Rangers 18%. On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Tom Salemi<[email protected]> wrote: > Phew, for a second I thought the Yankees had the best record in baseball and > a six game lead in the division. > > I think Ray correctly pointed out that the Yankees now have a killer combo > in Texiera/A-Rod that will fuel a potent line up. They also have > Sabathia/Burnett, not quite Beckett/Lester but close. > > It's fine to believe in the Sox, but shouting down talk of the Yankees > talent is just yahooism. > > So, the Sox will win the wild card. The Yanks will win the division. Then it > will come down to whose pitchers shows up for the games. > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> > wrote: >> >> Perect phrase for me, too. I've been mildly annoyed since everyone started >> freaking out when the Sox got swept in NY and still maintained a 9-4 head to >> head record against the Yankees on the season. >> >> The Sox have a great team. The let downs have been in the middle of the >> season this decade instead of the end, like the 30 years we were all living >> before. Now they come back and win championships. I believe it's due in >> large part to a manager who manages for the season and not just a series or >> a game. Tito knows if someone needs a rest. They know whose arm is dead and >> how long it takes to recover and how long it will last after returning. Nuff >> said? No more freaking out. >> >> Bow to the Yankees all you want. Our pitching will kick their asses in a 7 >> game series. >> ________________________________ >> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> Sent: Thu Aug 27 04:31:58 2009 >> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >> >> No, they're a good hitting team ... but I don't think they're the best in >> history and I'm sick of genuflecting to the Yankee empire. That's all. >> There's a defeatist attitude going around (not necessarily you) and I'm >> mildly annoyed. >> >> Steve O >> >> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 7:07 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> So my comment about the lineup was wrong? >>> >>> On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM, Steve Ouellette<[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> > Yeah, yeah. Yankees are invincible, yada yada yada ... >>> > >>> > Steve O >>> > >>> > On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >> >>> >> it seems to me that the Yankees have pulled it off, the murder's row >>> >> of a lineup with no holes. >>> >> >>> >> -- >>> > >>> > >>> > > >>> > >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >>> Productivity...Quickly" >>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>> >>> >> >> >> >> -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity...Quickly" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
