let me guess...you didn't like the sox chances against the rays last year...or the white sox in 05.....or the yankeess in 03.
On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:13 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]>wrote: > > Really. > I'm not surprised by anything like this any more. I wasn't surprised by > the 4 game comeback when down 0-3 against the Yankees in 2004. Ask Ralph. > I called 8 in a row and I'd never said anything like that before. > Sometimes you just know a team will do it. And I'm feeling pretty good > about this team. Not quite like I felt in 2004, but still pretty good. > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:10 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: Murder's Row > > > Sure I am. That's built into the 5.5%. > > Let's put it this way. If the Red Sox won the division, I would be > VERY surprised. > > Ray > > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:07 AM, Beaudoin, > John<[email protected]> wrote: > > > > No, they're not. Because you're not counting on it changing back in > another week. ;-) > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > > Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:05 AM > > To: [email protected] > > Subject: Re: Murder's Row > > > > > > Sure, it can all change in one week. > > > > The odds of that are 5.5% > > > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Beaudoin, > > John<[email protected]> wrote: > >> You know how I feel about your data. > >> > >> Sox can still take the division. > >> > >> I don't think it's 93% vs 5.5%. More like 80/20. It can all change in > one > >> week. They have to play the games. > >> > >> ________________________________ > >> > >> From: [email protected] > >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > >> Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 10:57 AM > >> To: [email protected] > >> Subject: Re: Murder's Row > >> > >> > >> > >> Here are the odds based on the baseball-prospectus simulation: > >> > >> Average wins by position in AL East: 100.2 93.2 88.5 76.2 66.1 > >> > >> AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card > >> Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Yankees 79 47 .595 100.1 61.9 93.24358 5.94766 > >> 99.19125 .50389 .49115 > >> > >> Red Sox 73 53 .556 92.6 69.4 5.55098 60.68733 > >> 66.23831 7.06311 15.53897 > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Rays 69 57 .583 89.3 72.7 1.20543 19.73397 > >> 20.93941 -5.91593 -8.73648 > >> > >> Blue Jays 58 67 .524 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00203 > >> .00203 .00106 -0.03042 > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> Orioles 52 75 .447 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 > >> .00000 .00000 .00000 > >> > >> Red Sox have a 60% chance of getting the wildcard. Rays 19%, Rangers > 18%. > >> > >> > >> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Tom Salemi<[email protected]> wrote: > >>> Phew, for a second I thought the Yankees had the best record in > baseball > >>> and > >>> a six game lead in the division. > >>> > >>> I think Ray correctly pointed out that the Yankees now have a killer > combo > >>> in Texiera/A-Rod that will fuel a potent line up. They also have > >>> Sabathia/Burnett, not quite Beckett/Lester but close. > >>> > >>> It's fine to believe in the Sox, but shouting down talk of the Yankees > >>> talent is just yahooism. > >>> > >>> So, the Sox will win the wild card. The Yanks will win the division. > Then > >>> it > >>> will come down to whose pitchers shows up for the games. > >>> > >>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, Beaudoin, John < > [email protected]> > >>> wrote: > >>>> > >>>> Perect phrase for me, too. I've been mildly annoyed since everyone > >>>> started > >>>> freaking out when the Sox got swept in NY and still maintained a 9-4 > head > >>>> to > >>>> head record against the Yankees on the season. > >>>> > >>>> The Sox have a great team. The let downs have been in the middle of > the > >>>> season this decade instead of the end, like the 30 years we were all > >>>> living > >>>> before. Now they come back and win championships. I believe it's due > in > >>>> large part to a manager who manages for the season and not just a > series > >>>> or > >>>> a game. Tito knows if someone needs a rest. They know whose arm is > dead > >>>> and > >>>> how long it takes to recover and how long it will last after > returning. > >>>> Nuff > >>>> said? No more freaking out. > >>>> > >>>> Bow to the Yankees all you want. Our pitching will kick their asses in > a > >>>> 7 > >>>> game series. > >>>> ________________________________ > >>>> From: [email protected] < > [email protected]> > >>>> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> > >>>> Sent: Thu Aug 27 04:31:58 2009 > >>>> Subject: Re: Murder's Row > >>>> > >>>> No, they're a good hitting team ... but I don't think they're the best > in > >>>> history and I'm sick of genuflecting to the Yankee empire. That's all. > >>>> There's a defeatist attitude going around (not necessarily you) and > I'm > >>>> mildly annoyed. > >>>> > >>>> Steve O > >>>> > >>>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 7:07 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> > wrote: > >>>>> > >>>>> So my comment about the lineup was wrong? > >>>>> > >>>>> On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM, Steve > >>>>> Ouellette<[email protected]> > >>>>> wrote: > >>>>> > Yeah, yeah. Yankees are invincible, yada yada yada ... > >>>>> > > >>>>> > Steve O > >>>>> > > >>>>> > On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> > >>>>> > wrote: > >>>>> >> > >>>>> >> it seems to me that the Yankees have pulled it off, the murder's > row > >>>>> >> of a lineup with no holes. > >>>>> >> > >>>>> >> -- > >>>>> > > >>>>> > > >>>>> > > > >>>>> > > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> -- > >>>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > >>>>> Productivity...Quickly" > >>>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com > >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > >> > >> -- > >> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > >> Productivity...Quickly" > >> www.leadingafteralayoff.com > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > >> > > >> > > > > > > > > -- > > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > Productivity...Quickly" > > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > Productivity...Quickly" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
