Wasn't feeling it last year. Yankees in '03 had that same old feeling of somehow screwing it up like in '86 et al. Come on. You KNOW what I mean.
In '05, was still euphoric about 2004 and not feeing greedy. In 2004, I have witnesses that I just knew it. Never acted like that or openly stated that in any other year. Not even 2007. I'm not bragging. Just stating that we all have inclinations beyond data. Data is past. Intuition is future. The past (data) may be a good indicator, but it is not a predictor. ________________________________ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Tom Salemi Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:17 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Murder's Row let me guess...you didn't like the sox chances against the rays last year...or the white sox in 05.....or the yankeess in 03. On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:13 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> wrote: Really. I'm not surprised by anything like this any more. I wasn't surprised by the 4 game comeback when down 0-3 against the Yankees in 2004. Ask Ralph. I called 8 in a row and I'd never said anything like that before. Sometimes you just know a team will do it. And I'm feeling pretty good about this team. Not quite like I felt in 2004, but still pretty good. -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:10 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Murder's Row Sure I am. That's built into the 5.5%. Let's put it this way. If the Red Sox won the division, I would be VERY surprised. Ray On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:07 AM, Beaudoin, John<[email protected]> wrote: > > No, they're not. Because you're not counting on it changing back in another week. ;-) > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:05 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: Murder's Row > > > Sure, it can all change in one week. > > The odds of that are 5.5% > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Beaudoin, > John<[email protected]> wrote: >> You know how I feel about your data. >> >> Sox can still take the division. >> >> I don't think it's 93% vs 5.5%. More like 80/20. It can all change in one >> week. They have to play the games. >> >> ________________________________ >> >> From: [email protected] >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi >> Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 10:57 AM >> To: [email protected] >> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >> >> >> >> Here are the odds based on the baseball-prospectus simulation: >> >> Average wins by position in AL East: 100.2 93.2 88.5 76.2 66.1 >> >> AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card >> Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change >> >> >> >> >> >> Yankees 79 47 .595 100.1 61.9 93.24358 5.94766 >> 99.19125 .50389 .49115 >> >> Red Sox 73 53 .556 92.6 69.4 5.55098 60.68733 >> 66.23831 7.06311 15.53897 >> >> >> >> >> >> Rays 69 57 .583 89.3 72.7 1.20543 19.73397 >> 20.93941 -5.91593 -8.73648 >> >> Blue Jays 58 67 .524 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00203 >> .00203 .00106 -0.03042 >> >> >> >> >> >> Orioles 52 75 .447 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 >> .00000 .00000 .00000 >> >> Red Sox have a 60% chance of getting the wildcard. Rays 19%, Rangers 18%. >> >> >> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Tom Salemi<[email protected]> wrote: >>> Phew, for a second I thought the Yankees had the best record in baseball >>> and >>> a six game lead in the division. >>> >>> I think Ray correctly pointed out that the Yankees now have a killer combo >>> in Texiera/A-Rod that will fuel a potent line up. They also have >>> Sabathia/Burnett, not quite Beckett/Lester but close. >>> >>> It's fine to believe in the Sox, but shouting down talk of the Yankees >>> talent is just yahooism. >>> >>> So, the Sox will win the wild card. The Yanks will win the division. Then >>> it >>> will come down to whose pitchers shows up for the games. >>> >>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>>> >>>> Perect phrase for me, too. I've been mildly annoyed since everyone >>>> started >>>> freaking out when the Sox got swept in NY and still maintained a 9-4 head >>>> to >>>> head record against the Yankees on the season. >>>> >>>> The Sox have a great team. The let downs have been in the middle of the >>>> season this decade instead of the end, like the 30 years we were all >>>> living >>>> before. Now they come back and win championships. I believe it's due in >>>> large part to a manager who manages for the season and not just a series >>>> or >>>> a game. Tito knows if someone needs a rest. They know whose arm is dead >>>> and >>>> how long it takes to recover and how long it will last after returning. >>>> Nuff >>>> said? No more freaking out. >>>> >>>> Bow to the Yankees all you want. Our pitching will kick their asses in a >>>> 7 >>>> game series. >>>> ________________________________ >>>> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>>> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>>> Sent: Thu Aug 27 04:31:58 2009 >>>> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >>>> >>>> No, they're a good hitting team ... but I don't think they're the best in >>>> history and I'm sick of genuflecting to the Yankee empire. That's all. >>>> There's a defeatist attitude going around (not necessarily you) and I'm >>>> mildly annoyed. >>>> >>>> Steve O >>>> >>>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 7:07 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> So my comment about the lineup was wrong? >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM, Steve >>>>> Ouellette<[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> > Yeah, yeah. Yankees are invincible, yada yada yada ... >>>>> > >>>>> > Steve O >>>>> > >>>>> > On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>> > wrote: >>>>> >> >>>>> >> it seems to me that the Yankees have pulled it off, the murder's row >>>>> >> of a lineup with no holes. >>>>> >> >>>>> >> -- >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > > >>>>> > >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >>>>> Productivity...Quickly" >>>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >> >> -- >> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >> Productivity...Quickly" >> www.leadingafteralayoff.com <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> >> >> >> >> >> >> > >> > > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity...Quickly" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> > > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity...Quickly" www.leadingafteralayoff.com <http://www.leadingafteralayoff.com/> <br --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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