No, they're not. Because you're not counting on it changing back in another week. ;-)
-----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:05 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: Murder's Row Sure, it can all change in one week. The odds of that are 5.5% On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Beaudoin, John<[email protected]> wrote: > You know how I feel about your data. > > Sox can still take the division. > > I don't think it's 93% vs 5.5%. More like 80/20. It can all change in one > week. They have to play the games. > > ________________________________ > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 10:57 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: Murder's Row > > > > Here are the odds based on the baseball-prospectus simulation: > > Average wins by position in AL East: 100.2 93.2 88.5 76.2 66.1 > > AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card > Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change > > > > > > Yankees 79 47 .595 100.1 61.9 93.24358 5.94766 > 99.19125 .50389 .49115 > > Red Sox 73 53 .556 92.6 69.4 5.55098 60.68733 > 66.23831 7.06311 15.53897 > > > > > > Rays 69 57 .583 89.3 72.7 1.20543 19.73397 > 20.93941 -5.91593 -8.73648 > > Blue Jays 58 67 .524 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00203 > .00203 .00106 -0.03042 > > > > > > Orioles 52 75 .447 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 > .00000 .00000 .00000 > > Red Sox have a 60% chance of getting the wildcard. Rays 19%, Rangers 18%. > > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Tom Salemi<[email protected]> wrote: >> Phew, for a second I thought the Yankees had the best record in baseball >> and >> a six game lead in the division. >> >> I think Ray correctly pointed out that the Yankees now have a killer combo >> in Texiera/A-Rod that will fuel a potent line up. They also have >> Sabathia/Burnett, not quite Beckett/Lester but close. >> >> It's fine to believe in the Sox, but shouting down talk of the Yankees >> talent is just yahooism. >> >> So, the Sox will win the wild card. The Yanks will win the division. Then >> it >> will come down to whose pitchers shows up for the games. >> >> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> >> wrote: >>> >>> Perect phrase for me, too. I've been mildly annoyed since everyone >>> started >>> freaking out when the Sox got swept in NY and still maintained a 9-4 head >>> to >>> head record against the Yankees on the season. >>> >>> The Sox have a great team. The let downs have been in the middle of the >>> season this decade instead of the end, like the 30 years we were all >>> living >>> before. Now they come back and win championships. I believe it's due in >>> large part to a manager who manages for the season and not just a series >>> or >>> a game. Tito knows if someone needs a rest. They know whose arm is dead >>> and >>> how long it takes to recover and how long it will last after returning. >>> Nuff >>> said? No more freaking out. >>> >>> Bow to the Yankees all you want. Our pitching will kick their asses in a >>> 7 >>> game series. >>> ________________________________ >>> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> Sent: Thu Aug 27 04:31:58 2009 >>> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >>> >>> No, they're a good hitting team ... but I don't think they're the best in >>> history and I'm sick of genuflecting to the Yankee empire. That's all. >>> There's a defeatist attitude going around (not necessarily you) and I'm >>> mildly annoyed. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 7:07 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>> So my comment about the lineup was wrong? >>>> >>>> On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM, Steve >>>> Ouellette<[email protected]> >>>> wrote: >>>> > Yeah, yeah. Yankees are invincible, yada yada yada ... >>>> > >>>> > Steve O >>>> > >>>> > On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >>>> > wrote: >>>> >> >>>> >> it seems to me that the Yankees have pulled it off, the murder's row >>>> >> of a lineup with no holes. >>>> >> >>>> >> -- >>>> > >>>> > >>>> > > >>>> > >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >>>> Productivity...Quickly" >>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > Productivity...Quickly" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity...Quickly" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
