Sure I am. That's built into the 5.5%. Let's put it this way. If the Red Sox won the division, I would be VERY surprised.
Ray On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:07 AM, Beaudoin, John<[email protected]> wrote: > > No, they're not. Because you're not counting on it changing back in another > week. ;-) > > -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi > Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 11:05 AM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: Murder's Row > > > Sure, it can all change in one week. > > The odds of that are 5.5% > > On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 11:01 AM, Beaudoin, > John<[email protected]> wrote: >> You know how I feel about your data. >> >> Sox can still take the division. >> >> I don't think it's 93% vs 5.5%. More like 80/20. It can all change in one >> week. They have to play the games. >> >> ________________________________ >> >> From: [email protected] >> [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Salemi >> Sent: Thursday, August 27, 2009 10:57 AM >> To: [email protected] >> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >> >> >> >> Here are the odds based on the baseball-prospectus simulation: >> >> Average wins by position in AL East: 100.2 93.2 88.5 76.2 66.1 >> >> AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card >> Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change >> >> >> >> >> >> Yankees 79 47 .595 100.1 61.9 93.24358 5.94766 >> 99.19125 .50389 .49115 >> >> Red Sox 73 53 .556 92.6 69.4 5.55098 60.68733 >> 66.23831 7.06311 15.53897 >> >> >> >> >> >> Rays 69 57 .583 89.3 72.7 1.20543 19.73397 >> 20.93941 -5.91593 -8.73648 >> >> Blue Jays 58 67 .524 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00203 >> .00203 .00106 -0.03042 >> >> >> >> >> >> Orioles 52 75 .447 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00000 >> .00000 .00000 .00000 >> >> Red Sox have a 60% chance of getting the wildcard. Rays 19%, Rangers 18%. >> >> >> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 9:49 AM, Tom Salemi<[email protected]> wrote: >>> Phew, for a second I thought the Yankees had the best record in baseball >>> and >>> a six game lead in the division. >>> >>> I think Ray correctly pointed out that the Yankees now have a killer combo >>> in Texiera/A-Rod that will fuel a potent line up. They also have >>> Sabathia/Burnett, not quite Beckett/Lester but close. >>> >>> It's fine to believe in the Sox, but shouting down talk of the Yankees >>> talent is just yahooism. >>> >>> So, the Sox will win the wild card. The Yanks will win the division. Then >>> it >>> will come down to whose pitchers shows up for the games. >>> >>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 8:25 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>>> >>>> Perect phrase for me, too. I've been mildly annoyed since everyone >>>> started >>>> freaking out when the Sox got swept in NY and still maintained a 9-4 head >>>> to >>>> head record against the Yankees on the season. >>>> >>>> The Sox have a great team. The let downs have been in the middle of the >>>> season this decade instead of the end, like the 30 years we were all >>>> living >>>> before. Now they come back and win championships. I believe it's due in >>>> large part to a manager who manages for the season and not just a series >>>> or >>>> a game. Tito knows if someone needs a rest. They know whose arm is dead >>>> and >>>> how long it takes to recover and how long it will last after returning. >>>> Nuff >>>> said? No more freaking out. >>>> >>>> Bow to the Yankees all you want. Our pitching will kick their asses in a >>>> 7 >>>> game series. >>>> ________________________________ >>>> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>>> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>>> Sent: Thu Aug 27 04:31:58 2009 >>>> Subject: Re: Murder's Row >>>> >>>> No, they're a good hitting team ... but I don't think they're the best in >>>> history and I'm sick of genuflecting to the Yankee empire. That's all. >>>> There's a defeatist attitude going around (not necessarily you) and I'm >>>> mildly annoyed. >>>> >>>> Steve O >>>> >>>> On Thu, Aug 27, 2009 at 7:07 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> So my comment about the lineup was wrong? >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:59 PM, Steve >>>>> Ouellette<[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> > Yeah, yeah. Yankees are invincible, yada yada yada ... >>>>> > >>>>> > Steve O >>>>> > >>>>> > On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 9:46 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> >>>>> > wrote: >>>>> >> >>>>> >> it seems to me that the Yankees have pulled it off, the murder's row >>>>> >> of a lineup with no holes. >>>>> >> >>>>> >> -- >>>>> > >>>>> > >>>>> > > >>>>> > >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >>>>> Productivity...Quickly" >>>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >> >> -- >> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's >> Productivity...Quickly" >> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >> >> >> >> >> >> > >> > > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's > Productivity...Quickly" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity...Quickly" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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