I bet this guy would agree with me and Ray. http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html
On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:57 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > I agree with all the commentary about why the Pats never should have been > in that position to begin with (poor time management, sketchy play calling, > questionable penalty calls, etc.). However, I think Belichek's call was > just ridiculous. Steve correctly points out that Manning had moved the team > down the field on the previous drive (even that Pass Interference aided > drive took 1:49), however the defense had stopped the Colts several times > prior to that. They forced them to punt 8 times in the game (I think that > was a record) and had 2 INTs. It is much tougher to score in 2 minutes from > your own 30 than your opponents 30 - I don't think that is up for debate. > You have simply GOT to give your defense a chance to keep the Colts from > gaining ~70 yards on a drive in the final two minutes with one timeout (I > stand corrected) left. It was just a bad call, and in an honest moment I > think even BB would admit it. > > ------------------------------ > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette > *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 1:17 PM > > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers > > First, they still had one timeout, plus the two minute warning. And second, > you must have missed the previous drive where they went through the Patriots > like a hot knife through butter (albeit helped by a bogus 30-yard pass > interference call) in less than two minutes, using no timeouts. > > Steve O > > > > On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 12:49 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > >> OK, Since we're talking about imaginary numbers.... >> >> I think your estimate is a little on the low side, but for the sake of >> argument I will give it to you. I think the Colts have a less than 30% >> chance of scoring with no time outs if we kick it away. >> >> Any other coach in the league would be in danger of being fired today >> after that call. >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 11:08 AM >> >> *To:* [email protected] >> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >> >> I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes to >> go is 50% >> >> and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%. >> >> So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%. >> >> I'm OK with that. >> >> Ray >> >> >> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid. Are you really >>> telling me that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no >>> time outs are equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same >>> conditions? No matter how you slice it, it was a bad call. It cost the >>> Patriots home field advantage in the playoffs, which can be the difference >>> in a Superbowl drive. >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM >>> *To:* [email protected] >>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>> >>> Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach >>> >>> It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of >>>> making two yards than they had of stopping the Colts. >>>> >>> >>> I bow to his explanatory powers! >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in >> Just 12 Weeks" >> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >> >> >> >> > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
