I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the games, that the season is over for Baltimore.
How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 team on a bad streak. That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. Here's the equation: Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) So for the Sox we have: 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is between two numbers .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games And so the final result? It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. Ray On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: > Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us > here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement > has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this > season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we > have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will > be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. > > -Larry > > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
