Hilarious stuff. Glad I like to just watch the game. If I spent my time embroiled in past numbers, I might be inclined to think it was a rebuilding year as early as late April.
Comebacks are great stories. Seasons without drama and without streaks and lead changes are boring. I like the Sox' chances ________________________________ From: [email protected] <[email protected]> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> Sent: Thu May 27 07:10:04 2010 Subject: Re: Statistics says : "John and Steve are right. It's too early to know." Dang! I screwed this up. I forgot to multiply by 1.96. Now the range is .140 which means .422-.703 real skill level for the team. Which is the same as saying we have no additional information. On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:44 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the games, that the season is over for Baltimore. How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 team on a bad streak. That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. Here's the equation: Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) So for the Sox we have: 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is between two numbers .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games And so the final result? It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. Ray On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. -Larry -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
