Actually, as previously reported, I was unimpressed with this team as early as January. I have a strange habit of using my mind, reaching conclusions, offering opinions and, if wrong, saying so.
Guess that makes me a weirdo. Things I'm wrong about... Buchholz is a monster. Honestly, I can't believe he was lumped in as part of the V-mart discussions. He's a 1a guy today.* Martinez is still an effective catcher, but we'll need to see the entire season. Varitek is an effective back up. Beckett is a worry. Papi isn't Papi, but he's not done. That's a good thing. *As an aside, I'd like personally thank the Minnesota Twins for not accepting the Red Sox offer for Johan Santan, a deal that reportedly would have included Lester. (It's laughable that there was debate as to whether Ellsbury should have been tossed in as well.) The Twins got very little in the trade. Three of the four players they secured from the Mets aren't even with the organization. One of the departed includes Carlos Gomez who was traded for decent SS JJ Hardy. The Sox deal reportedly include Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and Masterson. The last two aren't successful yet, but at least they can play in the majors. The Twins got shinola for their Ace. The Sox offer was much better. On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 10:24 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]>wrote: > Hilarious stuff. > Glad I like to just watch the game. > If I spent my time embroiled in past numbers, I might be inclined to think > it was a rebuilding year as early as late April. > > Comebacks are great stories. Seasons without drama and without streaks and > lead changes are boring. I like the Sox' chances > > ------------------------------ > *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> > *Sent*: Thu May 27 07:10:04 2010 > *Subject*: Re: Statistics says : "John and Steve are right. It's too early > to know." > > Dang! I screwed this up. I forgot to multiply by 1.96. > > Now the range is .140 which means > > .422-.703 real skill level for the team. > > Which is the same as saying we have no additional information. > > > > On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:44 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is >> this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, >> and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the >> games, that the season is over for Baltimore. >> >> How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore >> has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 >> team on a bad streak. >> >> That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . >> What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad >> streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give >> us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the >> Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. >> >> Here's the equation: >> >> Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) >> >> So for the Sox we have: >> >> 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 >> >> So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is >> between two numbers >> >> .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games >> .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games >> >> And so the final result? >> >> It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. >> >> Ray >> >> >> On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us >>> here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement >>> has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this >>> season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we >>> have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will >>> be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. >>> >>> -Larry >>> >>> -- >> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >> www.fpgasimulation.com >> >> >> > > > -- > Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" > www.fpgasimulation.com > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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