The same equation applied to TB gives .814 to .548 95% confidence as to how good Tampa Bay is. The .814 is silly, but the low end gives a 95% confidence that TB will win more than 88 games.
Probably fair. Ray On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:59 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>wrote: > No. It's too early to say whether this team WILL make the playoffs. It's a > fact that they CAN make the playoffs. > > Steve O > > On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:44 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is >> this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, >> and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the >> games, that the season is over for Baltimore. >> >> How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore >> has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 >> team on a bad streak. >> >> That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . >> What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad >> streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give >> us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the >> Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. >> >> Here's the equation: >> >> Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) >> >> So for the Sox we have: >> >> 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 >> >> So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is >> between two numbers >> >> .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games >> .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games >> >> And so the final result? >> >> It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. >> >> Ray >> >> >> On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us >>> here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement >>> has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this >>> season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we >>> have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will >>> be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. >>> >>> -Larry >>> >>> -- >> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >> www.fpgasimulation.com >> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
