Lowrie has been a huge disappointment. I was hoping for big things. On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 10:48 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
> Actually, as previously reported, I was unimpressed with this team as > early as January. I have a strange habit of using my mind, reaching > conclusions, offering opinions and, if wrong, saying so. > > Guess that makes me a weirdo. > > Things I'm wrong about... > > Buchholz is a monster. Honestly, I can't believe he was lumped in as part > of the V-mart discussions. He's a 1a guy today.* > > Martinez is still an effective catcher, but we'll need to see the entire > season. > > Varitek is an effective back up. > > Beckett is a worry. > > Papi isn't Papi, but he's not done. That's a good thing. > > > *As an aside, I'd like personally thank the Minnesota Twins for not > accepting the Red Sox offer for Johan Santan, a deal that reportedly would > have included Lester. (It's laughable that there was debate as to whether > Ellsbury should have been tossed in as well.) The Twins got very little in > the trade. Three of the four players they secured from the Mets aren't even > with the organization. One of the departed includes Carlos Gomez who was > traded for decent SS JJ Hardy. > > The Sox deal reportedly include Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie and > Masterson. The last two aren't successful yet, but at least they can play in > the majors. > > The Twins got shinola for their Ace. The Sox offer was much better. > > > > > > > > > > On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 10:24 AM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected] > > wrote: > >> Hilarious stuff. >> Glad I like to just watch the game. >> If I spent my time embroiled in past numbers, I might be inclined to think >> it was a rebuilding year as early as late April. >> >> Comebacks are great stories. Seasons without drama and without streaks and >> lead changes are boring. I like the Sox' chances >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> >> *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> *Sent*: Thu May 27 07:10:04 2010 >> *Subject*: Re: Statistics says : "John and Steve are right. It's too >> early to know." >> >> Dang! I screwed this up. I forgot to multiply by 1.96. >> >> Now the range is .140 which means >> >> .422-.703 real skill level for the team. >> >> Which is the same as saying we have no additional information. >> >> >> >> On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:44 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is >>> this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, >>> and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the >>> games, that the season is over for Baltimore. >>> >>> How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore >>> has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 >>> team on a bad streak. >>> >>> That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . >>> What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad >>> streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give >>> us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the >>> Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. >>> >>> Here's the equation: >>> >>> Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) >>> >>> So for the Sox we have: >>> >>> 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 >>> >>> So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is >>> between two numbers >>> >>> .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games >>> .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games >>> >>> And so the final result? >>> >>> It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. >>> >>> Ray >>> >>> >>> On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us >>>> here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement >>>> has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this >>>> season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we >>>> have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will >>>> be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. >>>> >>>> -Larry >>>> >>>> -- >>> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >>> www.fpgasimulation.com >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" >> www.fpgasimulation.com >> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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