Dang! I screwed this up. I forgot to multiply by 1.96. Now the range is .140 which means
.422-.703 real skill level for the team. Which is the same as saying we have no additional information. On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 8:44 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > I think Larry has hit the nail on the head in this debate: "How good is > this team?" I think that even John would admit that, even though it's May, > and even though anything can happen, and even though you gotta play the > games, that the season is over for Baltimore. > > How do we know that the season is over for Baltimore? Because Baltimore > has a .319 winning percentage and we're sure that they are not really a .580 > team on a bad streak. > > That brings us to the Sox. They are playing at a .563 pace (91 wins) . > What are the odds that they are really a .586 team (95 wins) on a bad > streak? Statistics can tell us this based on the season so far. It can give > us the 95% confidence interval. So we can say with 95% confidence that the > Sox are between two possible numbers of wins. > > Here's the equation: > > Confidence interval = 1.96 * sqrt(WP(1-WP)/#games played) > > So for the Sox we have: > > 1.96 * sqrt(.563 * .437 / 48) = .071 > > So that means that there is a 95% chance that the Sox real skill level is > between two numbers > > .563 - .071 = .492 = 80 games > .563 + .071 = .634 = 102 games > > And so the final result? > > It's still too early to say whether this team can make the playoffs. > > Ray > > > On Thu, May 27, 2010 at 7:20 AM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Sweep or not - walking into Tampa no one (outside of maybe a few of us >> here) thought the Red Sox would take all 3 games. I think a statement >> has been made that indeed the Sox are a championship caliber club this >> season. Let's see where things fall by the All Star game however we >> have a lot of numbers to go in the season before a final decision will >> be made on the top 2 teams in the AL East. >> >> -Larry >> >> -- > Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" > www.fpgasimulation.com > > > -- Author of "FPGA Simulation: A Complete Step-by-Step Guide" www.fpgasimulation.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
