Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 4:14 PM, William T Goodall wrote:
and (in my estimation) it is profoundly intellectually arrogant -- as 
well as probably disprovable -- to suggest that atheism is an 
insulation against nonsense.
I don't think atheism is insulation against nonsense. I think atheism 
is an indicator that someone is insulated against nonsense.
This suggests infallibility. I think you've missed what I was driving 
at, which is that *all* people are susceptible to flawed thinking; a 
good self-correcting process for thinking is certainly helpful, but 
using atheism as a litmus test to determine whether any given 
individual is less prone to believe other fanciful notions is itself, 
to me, flawed thinking, or a belief in nonsense.

As an oblique corollary, Newton was one hell of a fine rational 
thinker. His treatises on physics and optics are very good examples of 
that. However, he also attempted to use that fine rational mind of his 
to try to prove Biblical claims. Erik might suggest that Newton was 
addled, and maybe he was in the religious arena.

Gregor Mendel, even tough he was a monk, did some seriously 
groundbreaking work in genetics. His pea-plant charts are virtually 
cliche in science classrooms in the US, a little like the eye charts in 
optician's offices that read E FP TOZ LPED... This suggests that even 
though he might have been addled in some ways, he was an incisive 
thinker in others.

The corollary is this. While one could argue that atheists are being 
fine rational thinkers in the arena of religion, there's pretty strong 
circumstantial evidence to suggest that they (we) can also be addled in 
ways not apparent to them (us).

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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 6:38 PM, William T Goodall wrote:
On 6 May 2005, at 12:58 am, Dave Land wrote:

I bet that listening to authorities is evolutionarily favored, and 
listening *critically* to authorities even more so. Categorically 
disregarding authority is no better than categorically following 
them: it is equally foolish.
That's why one needs to figure out which authority figures actually 
know what they are talking about and which are authority figures 
because of monkey tribal nonsense. Which is why epistemology is 
important. I think you missed the 'just' in 'just because' in the last 
sentence you quoted.
Yes; deductive thinking is important. It's very valuable. And it's not 
being inculcated properly, I think; students accepting the fact of 
evolution by rote are no more capable of thinking clearly (a priori) 
than other students accepting that the six-day creation was the way it 
really happened. (I know my phrasing here shows my bias. While I can 
argue for the contrary regarding matters of faith, I cannot in 
seriousness present evolution as anything but fact or creation as 
anything but fantasy.)

I'm not personally trying to question your decision about nonexistence 
of deity. I'm just suggesting that not believing is not necessarily any 
different -- or any better, at its core -- than believing. There has to 
be something behind the declaration, something that approximates 
self-correcting ideation.

[me re acceptance of authority]
I think the tendency persists, and it's hard to counter its effects 
sometimes. This suggests to me that those who do not believe in a 
deity are no more proof from believing wacky things than those who 
do,
It's true that many people are gullible and credulous and easily 
taken in by charlatans, and that this is a good  explanation for the 
frequency of religious belief.
And, naturally, anti-religious belief. There is a God and there is 
no God are equally statements of faith.
No, they aren't actually. There is no God is a rational claim based 
on evidence. There is a God is a statement of faith made in the face 
of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
That's not a valid statement without a lot of qualifiers; for instance 
you don't describe here what sort of god you're talking about. If a 
believer is a Deist, he might assert that the only role his god had was 
in the initial creation of the universe, perhaps twiddling the laws a 
bit in such a way that life could exist (a kind of anthropic principled 
god). If that Deist than went on to say that, after getting things 
going, that god has been totally hands-off, the results we see today 
would not in any way be affected; that is, that entity's presence would 
not be reflected in anything e see around us now. No fingerprints, no 
shadows, no hairs left behind at the crime scene. Therefore denial of 
that god's existence might be as much a statement of faith as asserting 
that such a god exists.

Now Occam would probably disagree, but we have to start balancing 
elegances here a little. The universe's physics do seem to be slanted 
pro-life, as it were (contrarily, that's not surprising, because if 
they weren't slanted that way we couldn't be here); and of course we 
can't meaningfully speak of anything that happened before the universe 
we inhabit now came into existence. What we have, really, is something 
that is not testable or falsifiable, which precisely places a Deist's 
claim in the realm of faith. Thus it's meaningless to assert there's 
evidence either way, ultimately.

What I see when I look around is a cosmos that suggests there is no 
deific entity currently pulling any strings anywhere. Thus the idea of 
an involved, omnipresent, -scient and -potent god is not one I can 
accept. But if we put on the table the suggestion that a hands-off 
entity got everything started and has since been watching things play 
out -- well, while I find the idea unlikely, ultimately I can't 
disprove it. It was this uncertainty that kept me an agnostic for quite 
some time, FWIW.

So, depending on how you define your gods, denial of their existence 
can reasonably (I think) be seen as an expression of faith. A Pauline's 
involved god or a six-day clay shaper doesn't strike me as being 
remotely possible, and I don't think that statement is one of faith; 
however, the Deist idea is not one I can simply dismiss as readily.  
There, I'll freely concede, I am expressing a faith rather than a 
proximate certainty.

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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 7:41 PM, William T Goodall wrote:
Lack of evidence for something is evidence against it. Overwhelming 
lack of evidence for something  is overwhelming evidence against it.
That's a fair premise, I think.
The claim is that there is a god, omniscient, omnipotent, created the 
universe and so on. A remarkable claim.
Not the least because I didn't see anyone putting forth that claim in 
this thread; you're arguing against an idea no one's actually proposed 
in this discussion. Your straw god is easy to knock down but is not the 
focus of this flurry of electrons, I think.

And after thousands of years not one shred of evidence or plausible 
argument to support the idea. Case closed.
For the personally involved god idea, sure. Unless, of course, that god 
was something more like a universal scientist, possibly something akin 
to Sawyer's entity in _Calculating God_ -- one who got involved only in 
the most extreme moments, and even then indirectly, acting as a force 
of nature a la Job's whirlwind.

That, you could argue, is a sophistry, and I'd likely agree. I'm 
presenting it here partly to be the Devil's advocate and partly to 
point out that not all conundrums necessarily have binary resolutions.

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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 7:23 PM, Dave Land wrote:
Also, it apparently matters to you that there is no God, or you 
wouldn't
continue spamming the list with your refutations.
You know, atheists getting pissed off about others' faith seems 
classically sysiphian. There are about 220 million of us opposed to the 
rest of the world. Like it or not we live in a world of faith; the best 
approach is probably not to get angry about that. It's a little like 
being furious at gravity for existing.

And it really is insupportably arrogant to presume that the simple fact 
of atheism is sufficient to suggest a given individual is clear-minded, 
thinking rationally or proof against crackpottery. Unfortunately 
another hallmark of arrogance is being unable to concede being wrong, 
so I don't expect anyone who disagrees with that statement to suddenly 
change tune.

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RE: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Andrew Paul



From William T Goodall
 
 On 6 May 2005, at 3:19 am, Dave Land wrote:
 
  WTG: No, they aren't actually. There is no God is a rational
  claim based on evidence. There is a God is a statement of faith
  made in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
 
 
  Do you have evidence of the non-existence of God, or do you merely
  conflate the lack of evidence of the existence of God with evidence
  of God's non-existence? I know that I ask questions by way of
  making an argument, but this time, I really want to know what you
  consider to be the hard evidence of the non-existence of God.
 
 
 
 Lack of evidence for something is evidence against it. Overwhelming
 lack of evidence for something  is overwhelming evidence against it.
 
 The claim is that there is a god, omniscient, omnipotent, created the
 universe and so on. A remarkable claim. And after thousands of years
 not one shred of evidence or plausible argument to support the idea.
 Case closed.
 

Isn't it part of the God design specs that you can't prove its
existence?
It has to be a faith thing, not a proof thing. You may call that a
slight
of hand, but if I was on the design team, I would call it intelligent
design. So, God is outside the normal bounds of proof, I guess that's
part of the point of being/having a God. Those of a scientific bent may
claim that's not fair, equally, those who have faith (And I am not
amongst that number) would say that it is in fact crucial and very
germane to the whole God caper.


Andrew


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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 3:28 PM, Nick Arnett wrote:
On Thu, 5 May 2005 14:01:00 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote
Sometimes, it seems to me, anger is really a masking emotion for fear.
Only sometimes?  How about always?  Although other things may lie 
behind
anger, I tend to think that fear is always there.
That could well be true. I was thinking more, however, of the emotional 
range to which many men seem socially constrained -- anger or 
horniness, possibly exuberance. That is, when a man says he's angry, he 
could really be feeling fear, but expressing that fear in the only way 
he knows how. That's what I meant by masking emotion -- he's afraid 
but can't admit it, basically.

As to fear being present with anger in all cases ... that's a very 
interesting idea, and my inclination is to agree with your assessment. 
If anger is (in essence) a response to perceived threat -- any 
perceived threat -- it could be easy to support the suggestion that 
there's at least *some* fear there as well.

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Re: Babble theory, and comments

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
Warren Ockrassa wrote:
 Thanks. In my cynical youth I would have been more inclined, I 
think, to
 agree with the Good news from the Vatican sentiments. But in the
 intervening years my rebellion against (specifically) Christianity 
and
 (generally) religion has moderated some.
[KZK]
So you are saying that age enfeebles the mind.
I finally twigged to what troubles me with this statement; it's an 
inaccurate formulation of what I meant.

As I noted elsewhere, we live in a predominantly religious world, and 
to me the sentiments expressed in a thread title such as Good news 
from the Vatican are not functionally different from those that might 
have been expressed in a headline such as Good news from New York on 
September 12, 2001. From one perspective either expression is witty and 
will bring a smile; from another perspective either expression is 
reprehensible and callous.

Whether or not one subscribes to Catholicism, John Paul II's death 
caused a lot of sorrow in the Catholic world. Overlooking the 
(possibly-undeserved) post-mortem homilies, JPII was a figure looked 
upon with affection by millions, and their hearts were wounded by his 
inevitable end.

Capitalizing on that death to drive home a point struck me as being 
insensitive at the very best. The cause of atheism (such as it might 
be) is not furthered by increasing suffering or being insensitive to 
the sensibilities of others.

So no; age doesn't necessarily enfeeble the mind, but experience can 
lend insight into the minds of others.

 But there is wisdom to be found in doctrines which have endured for
 centuries or millennia, and it might even be argued that an organic,
 flexible interpretation of scriptures is more in keeping with the 
idea
 of a living gospel or living god than a rigid, hardline insistence on
 literalism. As an atheist, then, I might be more religious than many 
who
 claim to hold faith. At the very least I might understand 
Christianity
 better than some who claim to preach its truths.

To 'know' Evil is to fight against Evil, or on Evil's behalf.
Ah. So he who is not with us is against us? I can think of others who 
have used that simplistic formulation, and to great detriment too.

--
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 5, 2005, at 7:44 PM, Erik Reuter wrote:
One more time: it is foolish religious people that are the concern, not
the existence or non-existence of some god. Do you accuse psychiatrists
who want their patients to stop talking to invisible pink unicorns of
being worried about the existence of said unicorns? If so, you are in
worse shape than I thought...
For years I have struggled with the idea of sexual orientation. I'm 
currently of the inclination that it doesn't exist objectively. Gay, 
straight or in-between are, to me, ideas, nothing more.

All human behavior can become very complex when the factor of 
consciousness comes into play. When we're hungry we eat -- that's 
biology -- but *what* we eat is a product, to a significant extent, of 
culture. A Chinese person might find jellyfish a delicacy. I don't.

And within a given culture, there are subcultures; vegetarianism very 
probably is no more healthy than an omnivorous or carnivorous diet 
(there's essentially no objective evidence to show that one diet 
preference, within reason, is meaningfully healthy as opposed to 
another.

(That is, an all-Twinkie diet is not healthy, but a diet that includes 
no meat at all is not necessarily any healthier than one that is 
virtually Atkinsesque).

I've found through my own experience that my orientation is malleable. 
I used to identify as gay but for the last decade or so that's really 
been more a label of political convenience I use from time to time. In 
truth I'm comfortable with intimacy with any gender. I think I more or 
less talked myself to that point.

This is pertinent because I sense here an impression that religious 
people just don't get it -- but then, why should they?

If I'm right that sexual orientation is psychological rather than 
physiological -- no gay gene, mindset rather than hard-wired body 
response -- some might latch onto that and say, well, why don't gay 
people stop being gay?

Probably for the same reasons religious people don't stop being 
religious. It's a comfort issue, a personal issue, and to the extent 
that it doesn't harm others, it's no one's business.

If Person A has an outlook and set of behaviors that cause no harm to 
others, what right has Person B to suggest that Person A should change? 
Even if it's true that Person A could change any time he wants to, it's 
not really Person B's business to be demanding that change, at least to 
my mind.

A few years back I was amused at the response I got from a colleague 
who was shocked to learn I was an atheist. She said she'd never met 
anyone who admitted to it before, as though it was something 
shameful; well, how is that idea any different from someone 
confessing to being gay? Minorities can get defensive, particularly 
when they feel embattled. Surely part of many atheists' frustration 
comes from that.

But when atheists start behaving as though they're eminently right 
while everyone else is too restricted to see what's so obviously clear, 
I start wondering what the difference is between their views and that 
of gays and bisexuals who think avowed heterosexuals are afraid of 
themselves, or lack the insight necessary to appreciate sex outside 
their conformist views.

--
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Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
Too much coffee and sterling desert stars do make one wander.
For years a hallmark of whether computers were intelligent was taken to 
be their ability to beat a human at chess. Evidently the conceit was 
that humans, being intuitive thinkers taking concepts as logical chunks 
(etc.) were superior to computers in intuitive prediction.

This was happily held for quite some time until a computer beat a human 
at chess in the late 20th century.

Well, the argument then became that Garry Kasparov lost to Big Blue 
either because of a concession -- he forfeited the last match -- or 
because he was a human and so prone to being tired, wavering of 
attention, etc.

IOW, the goalposts moved. No, what we said before was wrong; computers 
really haven't become intelligent. The attack used by BB was a brute 
force approach. Kasparov was and is still human because of his 
fallibility, and BB is not the first example of emergent intelligence 
(as we define it this week) in silicon.

This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not 
know it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in the 
1900s, was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and he 
refused to accept the premise that the machine was superior to human 
ability. So he placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track before the 
machine could.

The terms were settled and the bet began. As the man and the steam 
mechanical raced, they were neck and neck (so to speak) for most of the 
contest, but ultimately Henry won when the steam layer blew a rivet and 
exploded. Unfortunately Henry himself also expired; he had worked too 
hard too fast.

The bet was declared in favor of Henry; he'd gone further. But had he 
really won, or had the goalposts for defining human just shifted 
slightly?

Buddhists spend a lot of time trying to define what consciousness is, 
what I is. These questions, it seems to me, are deeply interrogative 
of what human means. Is there instruction to be found in the ballad 
of John Henry, the acts of Garry Kasparov, or the way we've seemed to 
react culturally to both?

What happens in fifty or a hundred more years, when we will be able to 
upload our thoughts, ideas and dreams -- our consciousness -- into 
machines for permanent expansive storage? What happens when we develop 
machines that enable consciousness to exist indefinitely? Will it still 
be consciousness, or will we be arrogant and think it's just a copy? 
And if we think that, will it really be arrogance? Or will it just be 
John Henry driving steel until his heart burst?

--
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Erik Reuter
* Dave Land ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:

 Thanks for reminding me: the other pathetic logical fallacy that you
 frequently engage in is ad hominem attacks.

Awww, poor Dave. Can't think. Likes to whine. Aw.

--
Erik Reuter   http://www.erikreuter.net/
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Re: Earth has developed a slight eccentricity in its orbit...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 4, 2005, at 6:07 AM, Max Battcher wrote:
First source I could find (but it is mentioned in other places) that 
the
enhanced love story was Adams' idea:
Too bad. I was wanting to think the reason the movie sucked had to do 
with the shit introduced by others. Now I have to admit that some of 
the shit came from Adams.

That doesn't change my opinion of the movie. It was bad. Bad, bad, bad.
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Re: A very good NYT article on intelligent design

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 2, 2005, at 4:46 PM, Maru Dubshinki wrote:
On 5/2/05, Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
...
_Calculating God_, yeah. As it happens I just finished it this 
weekend.
It's an interesting read but Sawyer leaves a gaping hole in his story
(two, actually), which he also did with _Hominids_.

In CG Sawyer's aliens suggest that the current universe's physics are
too precisely honed toward life's development for it to be an 
accident;
the idea is that some kind of superbeing prearranged the current big
bang expansion to have the state it does. What we don't go into is 
how
that entity managed to survive the previous universe's big crunch.
That's a pretty significant omission, to me.

And of course the main basis for the argument that the Fohrlinors and
Wreeds propose is the way extinction events occurred simultaneously on
their homeworlds *and* ours (give or take a couple million years) --
now if something that incredibly improbable actually had happened,
sure, there'd be something worth looking at. But in order to knock
aside any doubts at all the book has to suggest an additional not one,
but two literal deus ex machina events.
Framed in that carefully constructed context it's hardly surprising 
the
idea of god finds a lot of support, but the fact is that without 
that
elaborately constructed set of premises, the argument falls flat.

In _Hominids_, BTW, the problem I had was his suggestion that
consciousness developed in human brains initially as a quantum state
change, something random rather than emergent that altered the way a
given brain operated once and forever in the distant past. Well, how
exactly did that trait get passed along to offspring? It *must* have
been an emergent property of brain complexity, something that existed
in DNA, or else it would never have occurred again.
--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
A goof point Warren, but you forget that genes aren't the *only* unit
of inheritance- culture is also inherited.
Yes -- but not biologically. If there is a discontinuity the culture 
gets lost. It is not innate.

Sawyer could have just as
well postulated a race of hominids, humanoid pre-cursors, which are
poised just on the critical cusp of breaking into counsciousness, and
only need an inspiration or model to make the leap themselves.  One of
them would be bound to 'get' counsciousness eventually, and by
imitation it would spread vertically and horizontally (and would
exterminate any groups that didn't 'get' it.)
Reasonable, but not an argument for inheritance of a quality.
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Ronn!Blankenship
At 12:29 AM Friday 5/6/2005, Dave Land wrote:
On May 5, 2005, at 7:44 PM, Erik Reuter wrote:
* Dave Land ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:
On May 5, 2005, at 6:44 PM, Erik Reuter wrote:
The statements There is [a/no] God matter to people so much so
that
   ^ some ^ foolish
Another argument from conclusion.
Also, it apparently matters to you that there is no God, or you
wouldn't continue spamming the list with your refutations.
Or, you are including yourself among some foolish people. You wouldn't
be the first person on this list to self-identify as a Fool.
Think, Dave. I know it is hard with your infection, but try! Or just pay
attention, since William already explained a couple times.
Thanks for reminding me: the other pathetic logical fallacy that you
frequently engage in is ad hominem attacks.

Though after the first few times they generally become ad nauseum . . .
-- Ronn!  :)
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Re: Close, but not yet...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 2, 2005, at 5:06 PM, Maru Dubshinki wrote:
On 4/25/05, Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
OK, fair enough -- but how would that really supply you with an 
answer?
If you simulated all senders and receivers, how would that be
significantly different from the message content's encryption itself?
You'd have a reduced range of possible transmitters, sure, but you'd
still have a range of equally-likely interpretations, wouldn't you?
You are not working from a priori principles are you?  You (as in the
ridiculously wellfunded hypothetical opponent, Carl) have tons of
information about your targets already, so you can narrow it down
enough to be useful.  It is placed in a somewhat Transparent Society
right?
Why would it be? The TS presupposes transparency...
So the more I thought about that, the more it seemed that only 
people
with actual organic abnormalities might be possessed of a different
enough neural map that a Rosetta device couldn't read them. They'd
have to be conscious, capable of more or less high function, but 
also
organically variant. That pointed to schizophrenia.

The tragedy of it, of course, is that in such a future it's in
government and corporate interests *not* to treat or cure
schizophrenia. I love it when dilemmas like that get dropped in my
lap;
they really punch up a story.
I'm afraid I'm not following why the schizophrenics would be
unreadable: if 'Rosetta' is flashing all its inputs and storing the
(arbitrary) responses, simply differing from other humans wouldn't
make much difference, I would think- the differences could be as
random as one pleases, and they would still be compensated for. Now,
if the Rosetta's were working from a precomputed table of
action/reactions to decipher the thoughts, then I could see why
neurologically atypical individuals would be useful.
That's the idea, yeah -- there's basically a very large table of 
neural
responses to stimuli, and as the patterns are matched the ways of
reading those neurons become slowly more clear. It's based on a pretty
big database; the only reason it takes a while to get a Rosetta
translation to work is the human bottleneck. Sensations, images and so
on have to be fed in and responses read, and that's what really takes
the time.

But since schizophrenic brains are both nonstandard -- significantly
deviant from the normative clusters Rosetta would already contain --
*and* (presumably) unique from one another, there's never been a way 
to
pattern their neural responses to anything. In essence each set of
responses in a schizophrenic brain comprises its own database entry in
the set, with no correlates. So 100 such brains would equal 100 
entries
with no (or proximally no) cross-matching of patterns.
No 'correlates'?  How realistic is it that schizophrenics are *that*
alien?
I really have no idea. All I know is that they don't respond 
isomorphically to pharmacological intervention, and that what drugs 
*do* work don't work consistently over time in even one schizophrenic 
brain. That's not necessarily meaningful to a scientist, but to an SF 
writer it's interesting.

Look, I try to base my stories in the plausible, not the truly really 
hard SF, and that's why I have FTL transport and schizophrenic couriers 
as opposed to deep-enciphered data and lightyears' passage of messages 
between stars.

I want my stuff to work in science, but I'm very very interested in 
human dynamics. To me the idea of a boy caught in interplanetary 
politics -- and so unable to get the help he needed -- was much more 
interesting to me than the idea that in the future, all wrongs will be 
righted.

My SF is not about tech, or at least not totally, though I want to make 
that relevant. It is about what human means. I like those kinds of 
questions, and I like exploring them in my stories. I'm willing to 
fudge a bit to make them happen; for instance I have one deeply 
shattered character reflecting thus:

==
  He fell, he fell four hundred years in forty days, cast from hell to 
watch a star rise on distant textured shores.
  He fell and in the fall was safe wrapped proof against cold, death so 
chill not even stars warmed it, and it was all around him and he had 
taken it with him and it is outside him still and he knows, he knows 
the others sense it.
  And they do not make him see it himself, they do not call it from his 
depths to hang before him, and he can stay wrapped in the shroud and 
hold still. If he holds still the pocket stabilizes, it is like not 
moving in cold water, thin layer of heat vanishing with any motion.
Because outside, in the dark, is
  It is dark like a mirror of black water and it stirs and in it faces 
not his own reflect on him.

[From my _A Fire in Arcadia I: Kindling_]
==
Now I'm talking here about a boy with a broken mind, and he's slowly 
reintegrating that. But how to make it sensible? He's been sent to 
another world by parents desperate to help him, but the trip itself 
cost time and he was affected by it 

Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Keith Henson
At 01:28 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
For years I have struggled with the idea of sexual orientation. I'm 
currently of the inclination that it doesn't exist objectively. Gay, 
straight or in-between are, to me, ideas, nothing more.
Given the scientific evidence piled up in the last 30 years that's an 
amazing statement.

Keith Henson
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Keith Henson
At 02:52 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not know 
it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in the 1900s, 
was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and he refused to 
accept the premise that the machine was superior to human ability. So he 
placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track before the machine could.
Please excuse my annoyance, but taking the very first Google link on John 
Henry would have taken you here:

http://www.ibiblio.org/john_henry/
One such chore that figures heavily into some of the earliest John Henry 
ballads is the blasting of the Big Bend Tunnel -- more than a mile straight 
through a mountain in West Virginia.

Steel-drivin' men like John Henry used large hammers and stakes to pound 
holes into the rock, which were then filled with explosives that would 
blast a cavity deeper and deeper into the mountain. In the folk ballads, 
the central event took place under such conditions. Eager to reduce costs 
and speed up progress, some tunnel engineers were using steam drills . . . .

The contest was about drilling holes into rock for explosives, not track 
laying machines.

Keith Henson
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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread Gary Denton
On 5/5/05, JDG [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 At 10:24 PM 5/5/2005 -0500, Dan M. wrote:
  Unless you and Dan have some brilliant economic theory as to why
  Republicans tend to cause recessions and Democrats tend to produce
  uninterrupted economic growth regardless of the business cycle, your
  analysis is deeply flawed.
 
 This is one area where we differ. I believe that data come first, theory
 comes second.
 
 In Economics, the prevalence of spurious correlations makes that a
 dangerous paradigm. I won't say that no serious Economists follow that
 paradigm, but data mining is broadly looked upon with skepticism in
 Economics.
 
 One reason for this is that Economics relies heavily upon time-series 
 data,
 and any two non-stationary time series will tend towards correlation over
 time.


Sorry, you need to go back to class on that one. The spurious regression 
problem applies to time series where they both grow over time.

The binary variable 'party of President', or 'party in control on Congress', 
the economic data works for both, is not a time-series growing over time.

To give an example from another case of mixing Economics and Presidential
 Politics, there is a Economics professor - I believe at Yale - out there,
 who on a bit of lark constructed an Economic model that predicts the
 outcome of the two-way US Presidential race based upon economic factors.
 By all the usual statistical tests, this model is very robust. And yet,
 every four years that same model is spectacularly wrong. And so, after
 each Presidential election the model is tweaked to account for the latest
 observation - all to no avail. Every four years the model's future
 predictions are invariably wrong.


It was not spectacularly or even invariablby wrong, although sometimes I 
believe he went back after the election and choose variables that could make 
it very wrong as a demonstration. There were several long discussions and 
papers I've read on using econometric models for elections and the problems 
of having a means of validating models before an election. People too often 
strive for these perfect models and use all the data and all the time series 
available which means there is no means of testing it.

So, to return to the original point, the data says that 8 out of 9
 recession have occurred under Republican Presidencies. Do you believe
 that this is inherently significant?


If you don't like where the the data is leading do you always close your 
eyes, stick your fingers in your ears and go Nah, Nah, Nah, Nah?

JDG
 

-- 
Gary Denton
Easter Lemming Blogs
http://elemming.blogspot.com
http://elemming2.blogspot.com
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Re: Galactic scripts.

2005-05-06 Thread Gary Denton
On 4/25/05, [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
 Has anyone worked on what the various galactic languages look like in 
 print?
 
 I have a theory that except for dots and dashes, there are no letters that
 could be either flipped or reversed.
 
 No dyslexia in the Civilization of the Four Galaxies.
 
 William Taylor
 

Google mail gives me Civilization 2 for $5 and a discount price for 
Civilization 3 Conquests advertisements for this email.

Sorry, I just thought that was cool when I was checking through some older 
emails. It also gives a link to a star image.

I would think that would apply to normal signage usage - not necessary for 
other communication. There may be formal, or ornamental fonts where possible 
mistaken communication is not a big issue and artistic or other 
consideration could override it.

.
 


 About these links support/bin/answer.py?ctx=gmailhl=enanswer=6603

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Space Ref - Apr 30, 2005 - Image: The Chandra image shows Mira A (right), a 
highly evolved red ...

-- 
Gary Denton
Easter Lemming Blogs
http://elemming.blogspot.com
http://elemming2.blogspot.com
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Soldier, Defender of the Truth, Fighter for Peace

2005-05-06 Thread Gary Denton
 
 Col. David. H. Hackworth, 1930-2005 Legendary U.S. Army Guerrilla Fighter, 
 Champion of the Ordinary Soldier
 
 Washington, D.C., May 5, 2005  Col. David H. Hackworth, the United States 
 Army's legendary, highly decorated guerrilla fighter and lifelong champion 
 of the doughboy and dogface, ground-pounder and grunt, died Wednesday in 
 Mexico. He was 74 years old. The cause of death was a form of cancer now 
 appearing with increasing frequency among Vietnam veterans exposed to the 
 defoliants called Agents Orange and Blue.
 

*http://tinyurl.com/7tfq3*

Both the Pentagon and the conservatives turned on him for being one of the 
first authentic heroes to say we didn't belong in Vietnam.

He continued fighting for the ordinary dogfaces until the day he died.


-- 
Gary Denton
Easter Lemming Blogs
http://elemming.blogspot.com
http://elemming2.blogspot.com
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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread Dan Minette

- Original Message - 
From: JDG [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: Killer Bs Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 10:58 PM
Subject: Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical


 At 10:24 PM 5/5/2005 -0500, Dan M. wrote:
  Unless you and Dan have some brilliant economic theory as to why
  Republicans tend to cause recessions and Democrats tend to produce
  uninterrupted economic growth regardless of the business cycle, your
  analysis is deeply flawed.
 
 This is one area where we differ.  I believe that data come first,
theory
 comes second.

 In Economics, the prevalence of spurious correlations makes that a
 dangerous paradigm.I won't say that no serious Economists follow that
 paradigm, but data mining is broadly looked upon with skepticism in
 Economics.

But, I asked a very obvious question: the effects of the implementation of
two general schools of thoughts on ecconomics.  It's not as thought I tried
hundreds of correlations, until I got a 3 sigma one.

 One reason for this is that Economics relies heavily upon time-series
data,
 and any two non-stationary time series will tend towards correlation over
 time.

 To give an example from another case of mixing Economics and Presidential
 Politics, there is a Economics professor - I believe at Yale - out there,
 who on a bit of lark constructed an Economic model that predicts the
 outcome of the two-way US Presidential race based upon economic factors.
 By all the usual statistical tests, this model is very robust.And
yet,
 every four years that same model is spectacularly wrong.And so, after
 each Presidential election the model is tweaked to account for the latest
 observation - all to no avail.   Every four years the model's future
 predictions are invariably wrong.

Do you know _why_ what I did and what he did are different?

 So, to return to the original point, the data says that 8 out of 9
 recession have occurred under Republican Presidencies.   Do you believe
 that this is inherently significant?

If you look at the policies that were undertaken by Democrats and
Republicans, then I would expect recessions to be more likely, longer and
worse when Republican economic techniques are used. In my time series, we
looked at two 12 consecutive year spans when Republicans had the White
House and one 20 year span when Democrats did.  Try a number of different
types of cyclical functions, and see how likely this type of occurrence
would occur randomly.  One would expect a cycle to have periodicity that
one doesn't really see here.

In short, I agree one has to be very careful about seeing correlations when
one tries hundreds of different combinations until one sees a signal.  But,
when one asks the one obvious question about Republican vs. Democratic
economic policy, one can use the statistics that are valid for asking 1
question, not trying hundreds of questions.

It  may be worthwhile to start a thread on statistics.  I'd be willing to
walk through the foundations of statistics and ways to check for valid vs.
invalid use of statistics.  As I've mentioned before; Monte Carlo
techniques are very good at turning tacit assumptions into explicit
assumptions, allowing one to  more clearly see the question one is asking.

Dan M.


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Re: Galactic scripts.

2005-05-06 Thread Maru Dubshinki
Hah- you obviously are not favored by our Google overlords; *I* can
get the Civilization board game for a mere 41.95$ !

Civilization Board Game
Only $41.95. Board game version of Sid Meyer's popular PC game.
www.gameoutfitter.com
http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/adclick?sa=ladurl=http://www.gameoutfitter.com/Browse_Item_Details.asp/Item_ID/465/categ_id/104/parent_ids/8,104/Name/Sid_Meierprime%3Bs_Civilization:_The_Boardgameai=B3o1ev457QvqAK5CUsAHfgtn7AoXctwij1oCdAcCNtwHQhgMQAxgDIIaPgAIoA0iQOaoBF0FjY291bnRBZ2UxMjB0b0luZmluaXR5sgEJZ21haWwuY29tyAEB2gEwaHR0cDovL2dtYWlsLmNvbS80NzNrZnVhaDl1NXU3aW5nN2xvc2d1MzkxM2hpcmR26AEBnum=3

~Maru
I for one...

On 5/6/05, Gary Denton [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 On 4/25/05, [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 
  Has anyone worked on what the various galactic languages look like in
  print?
 
  I have a theory that except for dots and dashes, there are no letters that
  could be either flipped or reversed.
 
  No dyslexia in the Civilization of the Four Galaxies.
 
  William Taylor
 
 
 Google mail gives me Civilization 2 for $5 and a discount price for
 Civilization 3 Conquests advertisements for this email.
 
 Sorry, I just thought that was cool when I was checking through some older
 emails. It also gives a link to a star image.
 
 I would think that would apply to normal signage usage - not necessary for
 other communication. There may be formal, or ornamental fonts where possible
 mistaken communication is not a big issue and artistic or other
 consideration could override it.
 
 .
 
  About these links support/bin/answer.py?ctx=gmailhl=enanswer=6603
 
 Sponsored Links
 Civilization 2 CD-Rom
 $5http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/adclick?sa=ladurl=http://search.store.yahoo.com/cgi-bin/nsearch%3Fcatalog%3D5dollarsoftware%26query%3Dcivilization%2Bcombat%2Bwar%2Bbeach%26.autodone%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fshop.store.yahoo.com%252F5dollarsoftware%252Fnsearch.html%26submit.x%3D14%26submit.y%3D8ai=BQOxA64J7Qqb9Gc_ssQHP78WoBPz2wQKEnfsHwI23AdDoDBABGAEgho-AAigCSI05qgEmQWNjb3VudEFnZTEyMHRvSW5maW5pdHkrTmV3c0JvdHRvbUZsYXSyAQlnbWFpbC5jb23IAQHaATBodHRwOi8vZ21haWwuY29tL3F0Z3Azdmw3amZsczVkcWNtOGs5Z2Rqb2N6dGc0a3foAQEnum=1
 www.5DollarSoftware.com http://www.5DollarSoftware.com - The classic
 strategy game now at a classic price  other great dealsCivilization 3:
 Conquestshttp://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/adclick?sa=ladurl=http://www.trygames.com/game/aff%3Dt_06tno/vid%3Db7e83565a6f3cb42335c840bb209b1deai=BcT2K64J7Qqb9Gc_ssQHP78WoBN-4jwqR7c2UAcCNtwHAuAIQAhgCIIaPgAIoAkiQOaoBJkFjY291bnRBZ2UxMjB0b0luZmluaXR5K05ld3NCb3R0b21GbGF0sgEJZ21haWwuY29tyAEB2gEwaHR0cDovL2dtYWlsLmNvbS9xdGdwM3ZsN2pmbHM1ZHFjbThrOWdkam9jenRnNGt36AEBnum=2
 www.trygames.com http://www.trygames.com - Download a free trial or buy
 the full version for only $29.99. Aff
 
 Related Pages
 'Wonderful' star reveals its hot
 naturehttp://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/pageclick?client=ca-gmailtype=1channel=AccountAge120toInfinity%2BNewsBottomFlatredir_url=http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html%3Fpid%3D16788
 Space Ref - Apr 30, 2005 - Image: The Chandra image shows Mira A (right), a
 highly evolved red ...
 
 --
 Gary Denton
 Easter Lemming Blogs
 http://elemming.blogspot.com
 http://elemming2.blogspot.com
 ___
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Maru Dubshinki
On 5/6/05, Keith Henson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 At 02:52 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
 
 snip
 
 This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not know
 it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in the 1900s,
 was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and he refused to
 accept the premise that the machine was superior to human ability. So he
 placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track before the machine could.
 
 Please excuse my annoyance, but taking the very first Google link on John
 Henry would have taken you here:
 
 http://www.ibiblio.org/john_henry/
 
 One such chore that figures heavily into some of the earliest John Henry
 ballads is the blasting of the Big Bend Tunnel -- more than a mile straight
 through a mountain in West Virginia.
 
 Steel-drivin' men like John Henry used large hammers and stakes to pound
 holes into the rock, which were then filled with explosives that would
 blast a cavity deeper and deeper into the mountain. In the folk ballads,
 the central event took place under such conditions. Eager to reduce costs
 and speed up progress, some tunnel engineers were using steam drills . . . .
 
 The contest was about drilling holes into rock for explosives, not track
 laying machines.
 
 Keith Henson

He was referring to the popular legends/tall tales (not sure which;
both seem to apply) of Henry; not the historical facts. Every popular
depiction, cartoons, videos, shows, childrens' books, etc I've seen,
they all depict it as driving spikes into the ground to fasten down
rails. Not, though the truth is otherwise, as making holes for
explosives. Artistic license, anyone?

~Maru
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Re: A very good NYT article on intelligent design

2005-05-06 Thread Maru Dubshinki
On 5/6/05, Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 On May 2, 2005, at 4:46 PM, Maru Dubshinki wrote:
 
  On 5/2/05, Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  ...
  _Calculating God_, yeah. As it happens I just finished it this
  weekend.
  It's an interesting read but Sawyer leaves a gaping hole in his story
  (two, actually), which he also did with _Hominids_.
 
  In CG Sawyer's aliens suggest that the current universe's physics are
  too precisely honed toward life's development for it to be an
  accident;
  the idea is that some kind of superbeing prearranged the current big
  bang expansion to have the state it does. What we don't go into is
  how
  that entity managed to survive the previous universe's big crunch.
  That's a pretty significant omission, to me.
 
  And of course the main basis for the argument that the Fohrlinors and
  Wreeds propose is the way extinction events occurred simultaneously on
  their homeworlds *and* ours (give or take a couple million years) --
  now if something that incredibly improbable actually had happened,
  sure, there'd be something worth looking at. But in order to knock
  aside any doubts at all the book has to suggest an additional not one,
  but two literal deus ex machina events.
 
  Framed in that carefully constructed context it's hardly surprising
  the
  idea of god finds a lot of support, but the fact is that without
  that
  elaborately constructed set of premises, the argument falls flat.
 
  In _Hominids_, BTW, the problem I had was his suggestion that
  consciousness developed in human brains initially as a quantum state
  change, something random rather than emergent that altered the way a
  given brain operated once and forever in the distant past. Well, how
  exactly did that trait get passed along to offspring? It *must* have
  been an emergent property of brain complexity, something that existed
  in DNA, or else it would never have occurred again.
 
 
  --
  Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
 
  A goof point Warren, but you forget that genes aren't the *only* unit
  of inheritance- culture is also inherited.
 
 Yes -- but not biologically. If there is a discontinuity the culture
 gets lost. It is not innate.

Exactly- like I suggested, the character-in-charge-of-exposition could
use the historical examples of wolfling children to point that out
precisely.

~Maru
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 6, 2005, at 6:23 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 01:28 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
For years I have struggled with the idea of sexual orientation. I'm 
currently of the inclination that it doesn't exist objectively. Gay, 
straight or in-between are, to me, ideas, nothing more.
Given the scientific evidence piled up in the last 30 years that's an 
amazing statement.
Not when you've lived it.
--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
http://books.nightwares.com/
Current work in progress The Seven-Year Mirror
http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 6, 2005, at 6:39 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 02:52 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not 
know it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in the 
1900s, was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and he 
refused to accept the premise that the machine was superior to human 
ability. So he placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track before the 
machine could.
Please excuse my annoyance, but taking the very first Google link on 
John Henry would have taken you here:

http://www.ibiblio.org/john_henry/
Please excuse *my* annoyance, but the title of the note very clearly 
suggests I was referring to the LEGEND of John Henry, not the facts 
behind his story.

--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
http://books.nightwares.com/
Current work in progress The Seven-Year Mirror
http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Robert J. Chassell
Maru Dubshinki said

He was referring to the popular legends/tall tales (not sure
which; both seem to apply) of Henry; not the historical
facts. Every popular depiction, cartoons, videos, shows,
childrens' books, etc I've seen, they all depict it as driving
spikes into the ground to fasten down rails. ...

Amazing!  The words I know told me that John Henry was making holes
for explosives in a tunnel.  And that the contest was whether humans
or machines were stronger.

I had not realized there were other versions, although I am not
surprised.

Incidentally, I understood the song to be a recent mythological way
for people in our culture to say that technological advance has
overcome humans.  (I did not know that there were other ways of
depicting the contest besides the song.)

-- 
Robert J. Chassell 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8
http://www.rattlesnake.com  http://www.teak.cc
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Robert J. Chassell
On 5 May 2005, Warren Ockrassa wrote:

On another list there's been a discussion in the last few days
about the findings of science, and particularly how many of us
simply accept them without question.

Yes.  There is no way to avoid having to accept most things.  People
lack the time and the resources to do otherwise.

Since belief in the religion of one's culture is so important, people
do devote the time and the resources to it.  One consequence is that
many have numinous religious experiences.

As Roy Rappaport (1) said

 A numinous experience compounds the emotions of love, fear,
 dependence, fascination, unworthiness, majesty and connection.
 It does not have any particular references, but 'is powerful,
 indescribable, and utterly convincing.'

Traditionally, numinous religious experiences were interpreted in
terms of a culture's religion.

However, communications about numinous religious experiences often
fails to cross cultures.  In contrast communications about science
often succeed in crossing cultures.

This is because a scientific communication can also (but does not
always) provide a numinous experience.  In other words, a scientific
communication can be `utterly convincing'.

There are three ways that a person gains an undeniable, internal,
numinous experience from a scientific communication:

   * From replicated internal experience

 This is to say, the listener *replicates the reasoning*.
 Mathematical beliefs come from this, because people reason.

 At the same time, internal experience includes dreams, visions,
 and personal revelation.  Many religious beliefs are confirmed by
 revelation.

 Mathematics is transcultural because people from different
 cultures follow the same process of reasoning and come to the
 same conclusions.  But people from different cultures who each
 have revelations often interpret them differently.

   * From replicated observation

 This is to say, the listener *replicates the observations*

 Astronomical observations and old-fashioned biology are examples.
 The key is that the person himself or herself makes the
 observations, and understands how they are made.

 Otherwise, the `observation' is simply a report by another:
 another case of _replicated hearing_.

 In addition, the person must also reason that there are no better
 alternative interpretations of the observations.

   * From replicated action

 This is to say, the listener *replicates the experiment*.

 Again, a key is that the person do the experiment and not let
 another do it.

These three methods are successful because the person's own experience
is undeniable.

By the way, two other ways for gaining belief are:

   * From replicated culture

 For many people, this is the background of all their beliefs.

 Actually, this is a subset of _replicated hearing_, but people do
 not remember when they heard.  It is `knowledge that they have'.

   * From replicated hearing

 This is the dominant mode for establishing a new belief, since it
 means going by authority.  (It includes hearsay.)

These two ways do not cross cultures.

Dave Land is surely correct when he says that

I bet that listening to authorities is evolutionarily favored ...

After all, the children who didn't, died.

But I am not so sure that 

... listening *critically* to authorities even more so. 

As far as I can see, in periods during which nothing much changed
during a generation, many could survive by accepting what they were
told.

As for definitive statements:  any human decision regarding evidence
involves a judgement.  Is the evidence weak, suggestive, or strongly
suggestive?  Your judgement may be strong enough to bet your life on,
but it is not an absolute.

When the word `evidence' is used, should others presume that the
writer means `suggestive' even if he or she uses absolute language?

-- 
Robert J. Chassell 
[EMAIL PROTECTED] GnuPG Key ID: 004B4AC8
http://www.rattlesnake.com  http://www.teak.cc


(1) `Ecology, Meaning and Religion',
Roy Rappaport,
1979, North Atlantic Books, p. 217
ISBN 0-913028-54-1 paperback
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Julia Thompson
Robert J. Chassell wrote:
Dave Land is surely correct when he says that
I bet that listening to authorities is evolutionarily favored ...
After all, the children who didn't, died.
But I am not so sure that 

... listening *critically* to authorities even more so. 

As far as I can see, in periods during which nothing much changed
during a generation, many could survive by accepting what they were
told.
How often did things change significantly over the course of a generation?
How many iterations would there have to be for listening *critically* to 
authorities to be selected for to the point where over half the 
population had the traits for the tendency to do so?

Have we reached that point yet?  If not, will we ever?
Julia
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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Thu, 05 May 2005 23:58:34 -0400, JDG wrote

 By all the usual statistical tests, this model is 
 very robust.And yet, every four years that same model is 
 spectacularly wrong.And so, after each Presidential election the 
 model is tweaked to account for the latest observation - all to no 
 avail.   Every four years the model's future predictions are 
 invariably wrong.

Then it is an excellent predictor, isn't it?

If it were not, then it would be right half the time.

;-)

Nick
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Fri, 6 May 2005 00:01:30 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote

 As to fear being present with anger in all cases ... that's a very 
 interesting idea, and my inclination is to agree with your 
 assessment. If anger is (in essence) a response to perceived threat -
 - any perceived threat -- it could be easy to support the suggestion 
 that there's at least *some* fear there as well.

Behind anger, I think there's always a should.  That guy shouldn't have cut
me off on the freeway... Wes shouldn't have been killed in Iraq... I shouldn't
have wasted time arguing about politics.

And so, the opposite of anger is acceptance, in my view.  I'm not saying that
fear and anger don't are wrong... it is appropriate to be afraid of the lion
and to be angry when he eats our friend.  Fear and anger themselves call for
acceptance.

In another thread, I said I wanted to get out of the kill the other guy's
argument mode of talking about things here.  Another way to say that is that
I want to figure out how to talk about difficult issues -- politics, religion,
etc. -- while accepting others where they are.  Hard to do, which pisses me
off.  Okay, that was a joke, that last thing.  Mostly.

Nick
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Morality Redux (was: Br!n something-Neocon-or-other)

2005-05-06 Thread Deborah Harrell
I'm short on time, in-between lessons, but want to tie
up a few of the multiple loose ends from my last post
- I'll get to actual replies if it rains (ooh, being
egotistical in assuming that there _are_ responses
required! grin).

I was surprised to find that morality and ethics were
nearly interchangable according to my Oxford's
Unabridged (c. ~1996); 'ethics' was considered more
applicable in the context of professions, but each
word was used in defining the other.  I kind of
thought that ethics was 'more' defined.  That said, I
must agree with those who state that morality is
culturally-based, rather than an Absolute.  The idea
that morality has evolved as larger and larger groups
are acknowledged to be People (family - village/tribe
- city-state/tribal confederation - nation - race
- gender -- non-humans?) seems particularly apt.

While I try to live my life as a 'moral and upright'
person, I do think that being trained as a physician 
pushed me to look for more demonstrable reasons to do
- or not do - certain things.  Of course I realize
that science itself is susceptible to trends, slanting
and even fads, but it's a little less corruptible than
...because God told me this!  (Or maybe it just
really hacks me off to be told that somebody else has
The Whole Truth...wryness)

Back to clarify my response to one of Gautam's points
(IIRC):  so morality can be _a_ reason to do/not do,
but if it is _the_ reason, it needs to be above
reproach (I think Nick said something along that
line).  Paying small attention to what motivates other
governments WRT what the US should do/not do is 
presumptuously arrogant; OTOH, wanting the US to be
morally superior in all its actions is also arrogant,
maybe even more so? ...so I'm guilty of the latter.

WRT Sudan (I know that was another thread, but I can't
find that post right now), allowing the killing to
continue is wrong; so B pushing the UN/others to take
action is good and necessary, because the US cannot do
it alone, given military resources stretched so thin.

WRT Iraq, if Bush had stated that the US was morally
obliged to do something because of past US government
actions which helped Saddam stay in power/didn't get
rid of him sooner, I might actually have to agree with
that.

As Dan said, doing nothing is an option, but it
requires you to acknowledge that you have at least a
partial responsibility for whatever ill results.  It's
moot now, but before GWII began, I and others thought
that enforced inspections were a decent compromise
between 'sanctions as usual' and flat-out war; I said
something about 'the hammer of US troops hovering just
across the border' as proper incentive.  At the time,
some said that 'keeping troops standing around in the
desert summer' was not viable; yet I note that US
troops have actively patrolled/fought through two
summers, with another fast approaching.

Debbi
It's Not All-Or-Nothing Maru



Discover Yahoo! 
Have fun online with music videos, cool games, IM and more. Check it out! 
http://discover.yahoo.com/online.html
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Re: Galactic scripts.

2005-05-06 Thread Medievalbk
 
In a message dated 5/6/2005 7:53:43 A.M. US Mountain Standard Time,  
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:

I would  think that would apply to normal signage usage - not necessary for 
other  communication. There may be formal, or ornamental fonts where possible 
 
mistaken communication is not a big issue and artistic or other  
consideration could override it.



The big deal is that I'm working with Sah'ot's poetry holocube. The more 
unique it is, the better it works as a plot device to get him home.
 
Vilyehm
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Robert Seeberger
Erik Reuter wrote:
 * Dave Land ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:

 Thanks for reminding me: the other pathetic logical fallacy that 
 you
 frequently engage in is ad hominem attacks.

 Awww, poor Dave. Can't think. Likes to whine. Aw.

Eating more bran might help with that attitude, dude!



xponent
Peniscephalic Entropy Maru
rob 


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Re: Earth has developed a slight eccentricity in its orbit...

2005-05-06 Thread Robert Seeberger
Warren Ockrassa wrote:
 On May 4, 2005, at 6:07 AM, Max Battcher wrote:

 First source I could find (but it is mentioned in other places) 
 that
 the
 enhanced love story was Adams' idea:

 Too bad. I was wanting to think the reason the movie sucked had to 
 do
 with the shit introduced by others. Now I have to admit that some of
 the shit came from Adams.

 That doesn't change my opinion of the movie. It was bad. Bad, bad,
 bad.

Still have not seen it myself.
But you are the only person I've run across so far who dislikes it 
greatly.
(I don't pay a lot of attention to proffessional movie reviews, I 
disagree with them too often)


xponent
Coming Soon Maru
rob 


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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Keith Henson
At 11:50 AM 06/05/05 -0400, Maru wrote:
snip
He was referring to the popular legends/tall tales (not sure which;
both seem to apply) of Henry; not the historical facts. Every popular
depiction, cartoons, videos, shows, childrens' books, etc I've seen,
they all depict it as driving spikes into the ground to fasten down
rails.
Anyone who has ever paid the slightest attention when walking near a 
railroad track knows that spikes are driven into the wooden ties rather 
than into the ground.

Track laying machines might exist today, but they certainly did not for a 
*long* time after the early building of railroads.

Not, though the truth is otherwise, as making holes for
explosives. Artistic license, anyone?
Can you go on Google and point out a few places where John Henry is up 
against a track laying machine or driving spikes to hold down the rails?

I have *never* seen this, but your might be right.  It has been a really 
long time since I was a kid.

Keith Henson
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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread Erik Reuter
* Erik Reuter ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) wrote:

 Productivity data is from:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OPHPBS/2/Max
 
 You can see a graph of productivity growth here:
http://erikreuter.net/econ/ophpbs.png   
 
 *I did not include years 1953, 1961, 1969, 1977, 1981, 1993, or 2001 in
 the calculation of average annualized productivity growth for obvious
 reasons.

I've added some more economic variables to the calculation. All data
is from the St. Louis Fed website given above, covers the period
1947-2004 but does not include the years given above. All data are
average annualized growth rate in percent, and all numbers are real
inflation-corrected numbers.


Rep  Dem  Statistic

4.7  7.2  Non-residential Investment
0.9  1.7  Hours worked business sector
1.7  1.6  Civilian Workforce
1.2  1.3  Population
3.4  4.6  Output business sector
2.5  2.8  Output per Hour business sector
3.2  4.0  Disposable Personal Income
2.5  4.8  Compensation, wages and salaries
3.2  4.3  Real GDP
2.0  2.9  Real GDP per capita
3.6  3.3  Inflation (personal consumption expenditure)


In addition to the Democrats doing better than the Republicans across
the board, two things are worth mentioning:

* Investment grew significantly faster under Democratic presidential
terms than Republican. This argues against the idea that the Democrats
are getting credit for long-term improvements made during Republican
terms. If investment pays dividends many years down the road, then it
would actually be the Republicans who would be getting unfair credit
from the Democrat's rapidly increasing investment.

* Hours worked increased faster than the civilian workforce under
Democrats, but hours worked lagged growth in the civilian workforce
under Republicans. Democratic policies seem to make better use of the
available workforce.

--
Erik Reuter   http://www.erikreuter.net/
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Keith Henson
At 01:11 PM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
On May 6, 2005, at 6:39 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 02:52 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not know 
it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in the 1900s, 
was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and he refused to 
accept the premise that the machine was superior to human ability. So he 
placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track before the machine could.
Please excuse my annoyance, but taking the very first Google link on 
John Henry would have taken you here:

http://www.ibiblio.org/john_henry/
Please excuse *my* annoyance, but the title of the note very clearly 
suggests I was referring to the LEGEND of John Henry, not the facts behind 
his story.
I might be wrong about this.  Can you point me to any accounts of the 
legend where John Henry was up against a track laying machine?

Keith Henson
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 6, 2005, at 5:16 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 01:11 PM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
On May 6, 2005, at 6:39 AM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 02:52 AM 06/05/05 -0700, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
snip
This reminds me of the Ballad of John Henry. You might or might not 
know it; the story is that John Henry, who worked on railroads in 
the 1900s, was faced with a steam-driven track laying machine, and 
he refused to accept the premise that the machine was superior to 
human ability. So he placed a bet: He would lay a mile of track 
before the machine could.
Please excuse my annoyance, but taking the very first Google link on 
John Henry would have taken you here:

http://www.ibiblio.org/john_henry/
Please excuse *my* annoyance, but the title of the note very clearly 
suggests I was referring to the LEGEND of John Henry, not the facts 
behind his story.
I might be wrong about this.  Can you point me to any accounts of the 
legend where John Henry was up against a track laying machine?
Doesn't look like it. It's entirely possible (probable) that I was in 
error. My impression had been that it was a tunnel driller (rathe than 
a steam drill or steam hammer), but that didn't make any sense to me 
because it seemed that a machine of that type wouldn't have existed 
either. Refs I've dug up, though, all seem to paint Henry as having 
been, basically, a hole driller; explosives, it seems, were put into 
the holes to blast out rocks.

--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
http://books.nightwares.com/
Current work in progress The Seven-Year Mirror
http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 6, 2005, at 4:51 PM, Keith Henson wrote:
At 11:50 AM 06/05/05 -0400, Maru wrote:
snip
He was referring to the popular legends/tall tales (not sure which;
both seem to apply) of Henry; not the historical facts. Every popular
depiction, cartoons, videos, shows, childrens' books, etc I've seen,
they all depict it as driving spikes into the ground to fasten down
rails.
Anyone who has ever paid the slightest attention when walking near a 
railroad track knows that spikes are driven into the wooden ties 
rather than into the ground.
Wow, it seems we have a budding Erik in our midst.
It astonishes me that anyone can overlook ten grafs of commentary on 
what consciousness means to get so anal retentive over a frickin' 
myth.

--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
http://books.nightwares.com/
Current work in progress The Seven-Year Mirror
http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On May 6, 2005, at 5:29 PM, I wrote:
Wow, it seems we have a budding Erik in our midst.
It astonishes me that anyone can overlook ten grafs of commentary on 
what consciousness means to get so anal retentive over a frickin' 
myth.
Bah. Sorry about that. Ignore the mood, please. That was rude and 
unnecessary.

--
Warren Ockrassa, Publisher/Editor, nightwares Books
http://books.nightwares.com/
Current work in progress The Seven-Year Mirror
http://www.nightwares.com/books/ockrassa/Flat_Out.pdf
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Maru Dubshinki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Henry_%28folklore%29

In a bid to save his job, and the jobs of his men, John Henry
challenges the inventor to a contest: John Henry VS. the Steam-Hammer.
John defeats the Steam-Hammer in driving spikes, but in the process he
suffers a heart attack and dies a martyr. In modern depictions John
Henry is usually portrayed as hammering down rail spikes, but older
songs often instead refer to him driving blasting holes into rock,
part of the process of excavating railroad tunnels.

~Maru

On 5/6/05, Keith Henson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 At 11:50 AM 06/05/05 -0400, Maru wrote:
 
 snip
 
 He was referring to the popular legends/tall tales (not sure which;
 both seem to apply) of Henry; not the historical facts. Every popular
 depiction, cartoons, videos, shows, childrens' books, etc I've seen,
 they all depict it as driving spikes into the ground to fasten down
 rails.
 
 Anyone who has ever paid the slightest attention when walking near a
 railroad track knows that spikes are driven into the wooden ties rather
 than into the ground.
 
 Track laying machines might exist today, but they certainly did not for a
 *long* time after the early building of railroads.
 
 Not, though the truth is otherwise, as making holes for
 explosives. Artistic license, anyone?
 
 Can you go on Google and point out a few places where John Henry is up
 against a track laying machine or driving spikes to hold down the rails?
 
 I have *never* seen this, but your might be right.  It has been a really
 long time since I was a kid.
 
 Keith Henson
 
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Robert Seeberger
Maru Dubshinki wrote:
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Henry_%28folklore%29

 In a bid to save his job, and the jobs of his men, John Henry
 challenges the inventor to a contest: John Henry VS. the 
 Steam-Hammer.
 John defeats the Steam-Hammer in driving spikes, but in the process 
 he
 suffers a heart attack and dies a martyr. In modern depictions John
 Henry is usually portrayed as hammering down rail spikes, but older
 songs often instead refer to him driving blasting holes into rock,
 part of the process of excavating railroad tunnels.


Maybe this will jog some memories.
This is much like the tool that was used:

Noun: star drill  staar dril
  1.. A steel rock drill with a star-shaped point that is used for 
making holes in stones or masonry; it is operated by hitting the end 
with a hammer while rotating it between blows

These were used in the construction industry well into the 70s.


xponent
Roto-Hammer Maru
rob 


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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread JDG
At 03:10 PM 5/6/2005 -0700, Nick wrote:
On Thu, 05 May 2005 23:58:34 -0400, JDG wrote

 By all the usual statistical tests, this model is 
 very robust.And yet, every four years that same model is 
 spectacularly wrong.And so, after each Presidential election the 
 model is tweaked to account for the latest observation - all to no 
 avail.   Every four years the model's future predictions are 
 invariably wrong.

Then it is an excellent predictor, isn't it?

If it were not, then it would be right half the time.

;-)

Cute.   Just in case I wasn't clear, though, the model predicts the
two-party popular vote percentage, not the binary outcome.

JDG
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Re: US riches, actual and hypothetical

2005-05-06 Thread JDG
At 10:25 AM 5/6/2005 -0500, Dan M. wrote:
 So, to return to the original point, the data says that 8 out of 9
 recession have occurred under Republican Presidencies.   Do you believe
 that this is inherently significant?

If you look at the policies that were undertaken by Democrats and
Republicans, then I would expect recessions to be more likely, longer and
worse when Republican economic techniques are used. 

Which policies and techniques are these?By what mechanism do these
policies and techniques translate into recessions?

 One would expect a cycle to have periodicity that
one doesn't really see here.

Why would one expect the business cycle to have periodicity?

 But,
when one asks the one obvious question about Republican vs. Democratic
economic policy, one can use the statistics that are valid for asking 1
question,

Not when the data set is so obviously flawed.   If one reasonably expects
that recessions are more-or-less exogenous, that is if on reasonably agrees
that recessions are inavoidable in the long run, then one would expect them
to be distributed independently of the Party in power.   The fact that
eight out of nine recessions happened to occur on one side of the ledger
makes the eventual results a fait acompli - and in particular makes the
growth extrapolations utterly meaningless.   

You earlier asserted that you would expect recessions to be milder under
Democratic Presidencies - and yet, surely you would agree that there is no
data to support this conjecture?

Another important flaw is that economic growth for a given year is not an
independent variable.   It is serially correlated to the previous year's
economic growth.Again, returning to your earlier assertion that you
would expect recessions to be milder and expansions more robust under
Democratic Presidencies  - that suggests that what you are really looking
at here is cycles.   In which case, since World War II, we've only
experienced three full political cycles - swings from Democrats to
Republicans and backs (i.e. from the beginning of on Democratic
Administration to the beginning of the first Democratic Administration
following a Republican one.)  Thus, I don't think that there is anywheres
near enough data to run the type of analysis you are desiring.

JDG
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Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . .

2005-05-06 Thread Travis Edmunds

From: Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Reply-To: Killer Bs Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
To: Killer Bs Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Subject: Re: Permission Slips Re: blah, blah, blah . . . Date: Thu, 5 May 
2005 14:01:00 -0700

As I see it the problem is not religion; it's undisciplined, irrational 
thought -- and that is as prevalent *outside* of any church as it is 
inside. If you want to have a productive discussion with a religious 
person, attack the faulty thought process rather than its results.
That's a mouthful right there, let me tell ya. A little on the idyllic side 
of the fence considering the set human precedent, but such sublimity usually 
is. Besides, it bespeaks the will to carry forward through our own 
fallibility, which, in and of itself is a precedent that we try and set, 
again, through the veil of our own fallibility, to ultimately persevere in 
the struggle to ensure that the institutions we leave behind are better than 
those willed to us by our forefathers. Or something like that...

Warren, you are a noble beast!
-Travis
_
Powerful Parental Controls Let your child discover the best the Internet has 
to offer.  
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Re: Garry Kasparov was a Steel-Drivin' Man...

2005-05-06 Thread Keith Henson
At 09:35 PM 06/05/05 -0400, Maru wrote:
On 5/6/05, Keith Henson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 At 11:50 AM 06/05/05 -0400, Maru wrote:

snip
 Can you go on Google and point out a few places where John Henry is up
 against a track laying machine or driving spikes to hold down the rails?

 I have *never* seen this, but your might be right.  It has been a really
 long time since I was a kid.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Henry_%28folklore%29
In a bid to save his job, and the jobs of his men,
I should go fix the Wiki because while steel driving men were not the 
absolute bottom of the pecking order, they certainly didn't have an men 
under them--unless you count the poor dude turning the drill steel 
(shakers).  Of course when an 8 pound hammer missed the drill steel you 
needed a new shaker.

John Henry
challenges the inventor to a contest: John Henry VS. the Steam-Hammer.
John defeats the Steam-Hammer in driving spikes, but in the process he
suffers a heart attack and dies a martyr.
There is a decent account based more or less on what was historically 
possible here:

http://www.ancestry.com/learn/library/article.aspx?article=7228
Incidentally, a drill steel has a very different configuration to a 
spike  Spikes are pointed.  Drills today have carbide inserts half again 
as large as the stem that screw onto the end of the drill steel.  But up to 
perhaps the middle of the last century rock drills had a wide chisel shape 
on the end.  This was to drill a hole larger than the stem because 
otherwise the drill would get stuck.

There was a blacksmith shop associated with any rock drilling operation 
because the drills had to be reshaped in a forge after a few uses.  If you 
were drilling any direction except up, the drill had to be frequently 
pulled out of the hole and the rock dust scraped out with a spoon.

1849 Jonathan Couch patents first practical American percussion-style 
steam powered rock drill.

http://www.explosives.org/HistoryofExplosives.htm
Simon Ingersoll . . . . invented a steam-powered rock drill in 1871. 
Faster, lighter and more productive than its predecessors, the Ingersoll 
drill—the first to be mounted on a tripod—revolutionized the drilling 
industry.

http://www.irco.com/pressroom/irworld/irw1q05/centurydynamicgrowth1q05.html
The first large-scale application of compressed-air energy occurred in 
1871, during the excavation of the Mont Cenis railroad tunnel through the 
Alps. Engineers developed a water-wheel-driven air compressor that powered 
the rock drills used to dig the tunnel. Before the invention of air 
compressors, miners used steam-powered rock drills, but exhaust steam made 
working conditions in underground mines unbearable.

http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_1741500785_3/Air.html
In modern depictions John
Henry is usually portrayed as hammering down rail spikes,
He would be spinning in his grave, different occupation, lower status.  If 
you want a picture of what driving spikes using a spike maul looks like, 
try here a little more than half way down the page.  (Volunteers rebuilding 
a old line.)

http://rypn.org/rypn_files/articles/Articles/031028WWF/Default.htm
but older
songs often instead refer to him driving blasting holes into rock,
part of the process of excavating railroad tunnels.
Well, the men who built that steam drill, they thought they were mighty 
fine
John Henry, he drove his fourteen feet
That steam drill, it only made nine, Lord, Lord
That steam drill, it only made nine.
Excuse me for being a grump, but I dislike abusing legends for cartoons, 
especially when they mash all the engineering and historical sense out of a 
story.

Keith Henson
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Re: Soldier, Defender of the Truth, Fighter for Peace

2005-05-06 Thread Robert Seeberger
Gary Denton wrote:
 Col. David. H. Hackworth, 1930-2005 Legendary U.S. Army Guerrilla
 Fighter, Champion of the Ordinary Soldier

 Washington, D.C., May 5, 2005 – Col. David H. Hackworth, the 
 United
 States Army's legendary, highly decorated guerrilla fighter and
 lifelong champion of the doughboy and dogface, ground-pounder and
 grunt, died Wednesday in Mexico. He was 74 years old. The cause of
 death was a form of cancer now appearing with increasing frequency
 among Vietnam veterans exposed to the defoliants called Agents
 Orange and Blue.


 *http://tinyurl.com/7tfq3*

 Both the Pentagon and the conservatives turned on him for being one
 of the first authentic heroes to say we didn't belong in Vietnam.

 He continued fighting for the ordinary dogfaces until the day he
 died.

From the This Is True mailing list:

THIS WEEK'S HONORARY UNSUBSCRIBE goes to David H. Hackworth. An 
orphan,
  Hackworth paid an older man to pose as his father to certify he was 
old
  enough to join to join the U.S. Army because he hoped for sex and
  adventure. He was only 15. After enlisting he advanced quickly: he
  became the youngest Captain to serve in the Korean War, and then the
  youngest Colonel to serve in the Vietnam War. During his 
distinguished
  service he earned 91 medals (including two Distinguished Service
  Crosses, 10 Silver Stars, 8 Bronze Stars and an astounding 8 Purple
  Hearts). During his stay there he wrote a manual on how to fight 
back
  against guerilla warfare, and a General called him the best 
battalion
  commander I ever saw in the United States Army. But by 1971 
Hackworth
  was convinced that the U.S. could not win the war in Vietnam and 
said
  so -- publicly -- and boldly spoke up against suggestions that the 
U.S.
  use nuclear weapons there. The Army moved to court-martial him, but 
he
  was allowed to resign instead, ending his 25-year career with an
  honorary discharge. But he didn't go quietly: Hackworth went on to
  become an outspoken anti-nuclear activist, earning him another 
medal --
  the United Nations Medal for Peace. After his military career, he 
wrote
  a column on military matters for Newsweek magazine and newspapers,
  wrote several books, and served as a TV commentator during the 1991
  Gulf War, the conflict in the Balkans, and, in 2004, predicted that
  American troops could be stuck in Iraq for at least another 30 
years.
  Most combat vets pick their fights carefully. They look at their
  scars, remember the madness and are always mindful of the fallout, 
he
  said in early 2005. That's not the case in Washington, where the 
White
  House and the Pentagon are run by civilians who have never sweated 
it
  out on a battlefield. Col. Hack Hackworth, America's 
most-decorated
  living veteran, died May 4 in Mexico from bladder cancer. He was 74.
-- Honorary Unsubscribe archive: http://www.HonoraryUnsubscribe.com


xponent
Twice Is Nice Maru
rob 


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Einstein on Experiencing the Mysterious

2005-05-06 Thread Dave Land
The Mysterious -- Albert Einstein
The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is
the source of all true art and science. He to whom this emotion is a
stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe,
is as good as dead: his eyes are closed.
Dave
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