Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 Most people is stupid _and_ most stupid people have an instinctive
 drive to mindlessly obey the orders of those that they believe are
 more intelligent - and this is what prevents extinction.

 This is an interesting pair of claims and I'd be intrigued to know
 what evidence you have to support either one of them, 

Evidence? None, except accumulated experience that comes with
old age.

 and more
 particularly why you've arrived at the conclusion you have. What I
 mean is that it almost looks like you've made a decision and are doing
 a post hoc analysis to support it.

Which decision?

 It might help to define what you mean by stupid, but what I'm
 reading here could be inverted as this:

Stupid = not able to think clearly. People who believe that
a fairy may turn 2 + 2 into fish.

 Because many people tend to be followers rather than leaders, and
 because many people prefer the comfort of feeling part of a group to
 the relative discomfort of being trend-setters, most people tend to
 align with a leader of their choice. This can lead to destructive,
 mindless behavior and inculcate intellectual laziness, which can often
 be characterized as rank stupidity.

 That's not the same thing as saying that most people are stupid, but
 it might be a middle ground that's more conducive to productive
 discussion regarding what to actually *do* about it.

 And with groups in play, stupidity might be relative. Consider, for
 instance, that a YEC would consider most biologists, paleontologists,
 anthropologists, physicists and geologists as being incredibly stupid
 for not seeing the obvious clarity of the point of view that aligns to
 strict Biblical interpretation.

Ah, the relativity of evaluation...

 And that is relevant, because Isaac Newton was a young-earth
 creationist and, when he wasn't inventing calculus in order to define
 physics and optics, he was trying to find proofs of a literal
 interpretation of Biblical teachings. So which was he? Stupid or
 brilliant?

At that time? He was extremely brilliant! Not being a literal interpreter
of the Bible had dangerous consequences those times, like having his
brain physically separated from his heart by more than 2 meters.

 Or consider what might happen if I were to begin holding forth on the
 subject of opera, about which I know essentially nothing. To an
 aficionado I'd sure as hell look plenty stupid, but it would
 (probably) be a mistake to characterize me as being so, instead of
 simply labeling me a loudmouthed ignoramus on the topic.

This is not stupidity, this is ignorance of a specialized field.

 The point is that we might be more inclined to consider those who are
 not part of our in-crowd as being stupid simply because they aren't
 part of our in-crowd, but as with the case of Newton, it seems unwise
 to apply one label to all members of a clade.

 If you're thinking of stupid as meaning inclined to mental
 laziness, I'd probably agree, but my personal working definition of
 stupid is (more or less) totally incapable of comprehending
 something. I don't believe the concepts are equivalent, and I don't
 believe most people fit that definition of stupid.

Maybe everybody is totally incapable of comprehending something -
after all, human knowledge is much bigger than the size of human
brains :-)

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Nick Arnett wrote:

 Emergence has applications in ecosystems, crowd control, city design,
 animal behaviour, surveillance, neural nets, and so on.

 Economics.  Must not omit economics.  The implications for economics are,
 in my mind, too interesting to make a list and leave it out.  Just a point
 of personal preference...but money makes the world go 'round.

Yes. It doesn't matter that 10 million scientists warn us of the dangers
of Global Warming or other horrible scenarios, but when the barrel gets
to 100 dollars, everybody talks about alternative energies :-)

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 6 Dec 2007, at 03:46, Julia Thompson wrote:



 On Wed, 5 Dec 2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 If you're thinking of stupid as meaning inclined to mental  
 laziness,
 I'd probably agree, but my personal working definition of stupid is
 (more or less) totally incapable of comprehending something. I  
 don't
 believe the concepts are equivalent, and I don't believe most  
 people fit
 that definition of stupid.

 I have several categories for people who don't have given  
 information or
 knowledge:

 1)  Ignorant (but probably willing to learn, or at least not  
 rejecting the
 information)

 2)  Willfully ignorant (actively rejecting the information)

 3)  Stupid

 Ignorance can be cured with information.  Stupidity can't.  Willful
 ignorance is the worst, IMO.  Brittle dogmatism leads to willful  
 ignorance
 in a number of cases, hence is a very negative thing.



That's another reason religion is evil. People with faith will tie  
themselves in knots to avoid confronting information that conflicts  
with their beliefs.

-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

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Lies and Damn Lies

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
May be helpful if those are not good enough:

http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/
http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/

Today (Thursday) only.


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Lies and Damn Lies

2007-12-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Dec 6, 2007 5:45 AM, Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

 May be helpful if those are not good enough:

 http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/
 http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/

 Cool, thanks... Never heard of this site before.

Nick



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Dec 6, 2007 3:31 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



 That's another reason religion is evil. People with faith will tie
 themselves in knots to avoid confronting information that conflicts
 with their beliefs.


But thank goodness that people with scientific beliefs never have any
trouble confronting information that conflicts with their beliefs.   If
scientists weren't so open-minded and willing to abandon old theories in a
flash, science would hardly move forward at all!

Please excuse the sarcasm... but there are benefits of the existence of
conservatives in faith, science and other endeavors.  Even though I'm not
one of them in most domains, I can see the value.  And you, William, seem to
be a radically conservative atheist, apparently utterly unwilling to
confront any ideas that would conflict with your belief.

Nick

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 6 Dec 2007, at 15:17, Nick Arnett wrote:

 On Dec 6, 2007 3:31 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED]  
 wrote:



 That's another reason religion is evil. People with faith will tie
 themselves in knots to avoid confronting information that conflicts
 with their beliefs.


 But thank goodness that people with scientific beliefs never have any
 trouble confronting information that conflicts with their beliefs.
 If
 scientists weren't so open-minded and willing to abandon old  
 theories in a
 flash, science would hardly move forward at all!

This is completely irrelevant misdirection and entirely typical of the  
faith-addled response to a reasonable discussion.

This is arguing that smoking doesn't cause cancer because sunbathing  
causes cancer.



 Please excuse the sarcasm... but there are benefits of the existence  
 of
 conservatives in faith, science and other endeavors.  Even though  
 I'm not
 one of them in most domains, I can see the value.  And you, William,  
 seem to
 be a radically conservative atheist, apparently utterly unwilling to
 confront any ideas that would conflict with your belief.


I confront them all the time. Vigourously. That's how this discussion  
got started!

Gentle Correction Maru
-- 
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Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Dec 6, 2007 7:47 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:




 This is arguing that smoking doesn't cause cancer because sunbathing
 causes cancer.


No, it's arguing that people tend to cling to their beliefs for reasons
other than logic.

The same challenge exists in faith as in science -- to remain open-minded.
You seem to be claiming that religion is inherently close-minded... perhaps
you might consider the possibility that it isn't so, even though some
religious people, like some of all people, are close-minded and seek to
convert others to close-mindedness.  Politics is much the same.  And science
is riddled with politics.


 I confront them all the time. Vigourously. That's how this discussion
 got started!


Then you get the point of my sarcasm.

Is it confrontation if your mind is already made up?  Perhaps so, but it is
certainly not engagement.

Nick


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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 6 Dec 2007, at 16:14, Nick Arnett wrote:

 On Dec 6, 2007 7:47 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED]  
 wrote:




 This is arguing that smoking doesn't cause cancer because sunbathing
 causes cancer.


 No, it's arguing that people tend to cling to their beliefs for  
 reasons
 other than logic.

People cursed with faith do, but I don't. My beliefs are what the  
evidence and logic lead me to.



 The same challenge exists in faith as in science -- to remain open- 
 minded.
 You seem to be claiming that religion is inherently close-minded...  
 perhaps
 you might consider the possibility that it isn't so, even though some
 religious people, like some of all people, are close-minded and seek  
 to
 convert others to close-mindedness.  Politics is much the same.  And  
 science
 is riddled with politics.

Creeds, dogma, holy texts, Papal infallibility, God revealing the  
Qur'an to Muhammad - this is all extremely close-minded and not open  
to discussion. You either accept it or you're not part of that  
religion. There is no open-mindedness there. Try having an open-minded  
discussion with a Muslim about whether Muhammad might not have been  
the last prophet, or a Catholic about that 'every sperm is sacred'  
gibberish.




 I confront them all the time. Vigourously. That's how this discussion
 got started!


 Then you get the point of my sarcasm.

 Is it confrontation if your mind is already made up?  Perhaps so,  
 but it is
 certainly not engagement.


Why would I want to 'engage' with ideas I have already proved to be  
false and evil? That would just be stupid and I'm not stupid.

Clever Maru

-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system,  
and possibly program, of all time. - Bill Gates, 1987


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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Nick Arnett
On Dec 6, 2007 8:35 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:


 People cursed with faith do, but I don't. My beliefs are what the
 evidence and logic lead me to.


Haven't you seen, in science fiction, what happens when intelligent
computers and robots operate entirely on evidence and logic?

Did I miss the memorial service for your emotions, or should we be planning
one?  ;-)



 Creeds, dogma, holy texts, Papal infallibility, God revealing the
 Qur'an to Muhammad - this is all extremely close-minded and not open
 to discussion. You either accept it or you're not part of that
 religion. There is no open-mindedness there. Try having an open-minded
 discussion with a Muslim about whether Muhammad might not have been
 the last prophet, or a Catholic about that 'every sperm is sacred'
 gibberish.


You're just wrong.  You're basing this on the false idea that everybody is
conservative.  They are not.  For example, you are entirely welcome in my
church and many others.  The only requirement for entrance is to walk in the
door... and we'll lend a hand with that if you need it.  And you can keep
coming back without subscribing to any of our beliefs.

Try having an open-minded discussion about faith with an extremist
atheist ;-)

Nick


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Messages: 408-904-7198
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 6 Dec 2007, at 16:58, Nick Arnett wrote:

 On Dec 6, 2007 8:35 AM, William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED]  
 wrote:


 People cursed with faith do, but I don't. My beliefs are what the
 evidence and logic lead me to.


 Haven't you seen, in science fiction, what happens when intelligent
 computers and robots operate entirely on evidence and logic?

Made up stories aren't actually evidence you know. Oh! Of course you  
don't know because you think made up stories in religious books are  
evidence.



 Did I miss the memorial service for your emotions, or should we be  
 planning
 one?  ;-)



 Creeds, dogma, holy texts, Papal infallibility, God revealing the
 Qur'an to Muhammad - this is all extremely close-minded and not open
 to discussion. You either accept it or you're not part of that
 religion. There is no open-mindedness there. Try having an open- 
 minded
 discussion with a Muslim about whether Muhammad might not have been
 the last prophet, or a Catholic about that 'every sperm is sacred'
 gibberish.


 You're just wrong.  You're basing this on the false idea that  
 everybody is
 conservative.  They are not.  For example, you are entirely welcome  
 in my
 church and many others.  The only requirement for entrance is to  
 walk in the
 door... and we'll lend a hand with that if you need it.  And you can  
 keep
 coming back without subscribing to any of our beliefs.

Would it make you happy if I added the occasional (almost all) here  
and there?



 Try having an open-minded discussion about faith with an extremist
 atheist ;-)

 Nick


I've never met an extremist atheist. They're all moderate and  
reasonable like me.


Almost all religion is evil Maru


-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

Two years from now, spam will be solved. - Bill Gates, 2004


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Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread jon louis mann
Creeds, dogma, holy texts, Papal infallibility, God revealing the Qur'an to 
Muhammad - this is all extremely close-minded and not open to discussion. You 
either accept it or you're not part of that religion.  
  Try having an open-minded discussion with a Muslim about whether Muhammad 
might not have been the last prophet, or a Catholic about that 'every sperm is 
sacred' gibberish.
William T Goodall 

You're basing this on the false idea that everybody is conservative.  They are 
not.  Try having an open-minded discussion about faith with an extremist 
atheist ;-)
Nick
   
  william does seem to be saying that all catholics and muslims are narrow 
minded, which is not true.  there are many catholics who question the papal 
infallibility, and many moderate muslims who do not follow sharia law.  
according to asimov there are a billion names for god and many of their 
followers are not true believers.  
   
  martin luther is one of many heretics who turned from the corrupt catholic 
church and it is still going on.  some of the cults are even more dogmatic.   
some, like some unitarians and reconstructionist jews do not even require a 
belief in god.  
   
  i may be an extremist atheist, but i will respect your faith, nick, 
especially since you do not attempt to force it on others, despite some of us 
who try to convince you to abandon your faith.  i just have a hard time 
understanding why anyone with your obvious intelligence (whiich is superior to 
my own) is so easily duped into believing in a deity that is born of a virgin 
and is ressurected from the dead.
  jon


   
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Julia Thompson


On Thu, 6 Dec 2007, jon louis mann wrote:

  william does seem to be saying that all catholics and muslims are
  narrow minded, which is not true.  there are many catholics who
  question the papal infallibility, and many moderate muslims who do not
  follow sharia law.  according to asimov there are a billion names for
  god and many of their followers are not true believers.

I thought it was Clarke, not Asimov.

Julia

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Re: Weekly Chat Reminder

2007-12-06 Thread Olin Elliott
I have tried several times to join the weekly chat, but despite following all 
your instructions and trying every approach I could think of, I can't seem to 
get it to work. 
  - Original Message - 
  From: William T Goodallmailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
  To: brin-l@mccmedia.commailto:brin-l@mccmedia.com 
  Sent: Wednesday, December 05, 2007 11:02 AM
  Subject: Weekly Chat Reminder



  As Steve said,

  The Brin-L weekly chat has been a list tradition for over six
  years. Way back on 27 May, 1998, Marco Maisenhelder first set
  up a chatroom for the list, and on the next day, he established
  a weekly chat time. We've been through several servers, chat
  technologies, and even casts of regulars over the years, but
  the chat goes on... and we want more recruits!

  Whether you're an active poster or a lurker, whether you've
  been a member of the list from the beginning or just joined
  today, we would really like for you to join us. We have less
  politics, more Uplift talk, and more light-hearted discussion.
  We're non-fattening and 100% environmentally friendly...
  -(_() Though sometimes marshmallows do get thrown.

  The Weekly Brin-L chat is scheduled for Wednesday 3 PM
  Eastern/2 PM Central time in the US, or 7 PM Greenwich time.
  There's usually somebody there to talk to for at least eight
  hours after the start time.

  If you want to attend, it's really easy now. All you have to
  do is send your web browser to:

http://wtgab.demon.co.uk/~brinl/mud/http://wtgab.demon.co.uk/~brinl/mud/

  ..And you can connect directly from William's new web
  interface!

  My instruction page tells you how to log on, and how to talk
  when you get in:

http://www.brin-l.org/brinmud.htmlhttp://www.brin-l.org/brinmud.html

  It also gives a list of commands to use when you're in there.
  In addition, it tells you how to connect through a MUD client,
  which is more complicated to set up initially, but easier and
  more reliable than the web interface once you do get it set up.

  -- 
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  This message was sent automatically using launchd. But even if WTG
   is away on holiday, at least it shows the server is still up.
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Richard Baker
Nick said:

 And just what Kauffman (or is it Axelrod) suggests is signified by the
 mathematical relationships between gene counts and cell  
 differentiation
 counts, if I am remembering it correctly.  I'm struggling to recall  
 (and
 away from my books), but isn't the mechanism of cell differentiation  
 still
 quite a mystery?  Of course, with all the stem cell research going on,
 perhaps there's a lot of new evidence coming out all the time.

If you're interested in that sort of thing, I can highly recommend  
Sean Carroll's _Endless Forms Most Beautiful_, a good recent popular  
book on evo-devo, the evolution of development.

Rich
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Re: Weekly Chat Reminder

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 6 Dec 2007, at 19:23, Olin Elliott wrote:

 I have tried several times to join the weekly chat, but despite  
 following all your instructions and trying every approach I could  
 think of, I can't seem to get it to work.


It works on Mac OS X, Windows XP,  Linux and other OS's using the  
Safari, Firefox or even Internet Explorer web browsers.

You do need to have Java installed and enabled which is by default on  
Mac OS X  but not on Windows XP. Linux users can sort themselves out I  
trust :-)


-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
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Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread jon louis mann
according to asimov there are a billion names for god and many of their 
followers are not true believers.
  jon
   
  
I thought it was Clarke, not Asimov.
  Julia
  
you are right, julia,  i stand corrected.  
  the title was, `the NINE billion names of god', by arthur c. clarke c. 1953.
  jon

   
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 6, 2007, at 3:40 AM, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 Most people is stupid _and_ most stupid people have an instinctive
 drive to mindlessly obey the orders of those that they believe are
 more intelligent - and this is what prevents extinction.

 This is an interesting pair of claims and I'd be intrigued to know
 what evidence you have to support either one of them,

 Evidence? None, except accumulated experience that comes with
 old age.

Which can be translated as curmdgeonhood. ;)

 and more
 particularly why you've arrived at the conclusion you have. What I
 mean is that it almost looks like you've made a decision and are  
 doing
 a post hoc analysis to support it.

 Which decision?

That people are stupid. The argument you offered suggests you decided  
that people are stupid, and were doing an after-the-fact expansion on  
the point of view. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but that  
the structure of what you wrote seemed to be justifying a conclusion  
rather than building a foundation for it.

 It might help to define what you mean by stupid, but what I'm
 reading here could be inverted as this:

 Stupid = not able to think clearly. People who believe that
 a fairy may turn 2 + 2 into fish.

Oh, that's not stupid; it's surrealism! :D

More seriously, though, even the term not able to think clearly  
doesn't necessarily indicate much about a given person's mind or  
mental faculties. Many people are not able to think clearly when  
they're angry, for instance, which renders temporary stupidity; as  
Julia pointed out some *choose* not to think clearly, which tends to  
lead others into ... anger. Some people don't have the tools to think  
clearly but that's only because they lack the training; others are  
genuinely organically dysfunctional and blameless about their  
inability to think clearly.

 And with groups in play, stupidity might be relative. Consider, for
 instance, that a YEC would consider most biologists, paleontologists,
 anthropologists, physicists and geologists as being incredibly stupid
 for not seeing the obvious clarity of the point of view that aligns  
 to
 strict Biblical interpretation.

 Ah, the relativity of evaluation...

Yes, that's correct. Were you rebutting the validity of the above?

 And that is relevant, because Isaac Newton was a young-earth
 creationist and, when he wasn't inventing calculus in order to define
 physics and optics, he was trying to find proofs of a literal
 interpretation of Biblical teachings. So which was he? Stupid or
 brilliant?

 At that time? He was extremely brilliant! Not being a literal  
 interpreter
 of the Bible had dangerous consequences those times, like having his
 brain physically separated from his heart by more than 2 meters.

During the Enlightenment? Not so much so. Inventing physics from  
nothing was a heck of an achievement, but the literalism he tried to  
justify was much more than simply a hobby or something he was doing to  
save face. He was genuinely committed to proving the literal truth of  
the Bible.

 If you're thinking of stupid as meaning inclined to mental
 laziness, I'd probably agree, but my personal working definition of
 stupid is (more or less) totally incapable of comprehending
 something. I don't believe the concepts are equivalent, and I don't
 believe most people fit that definition of stupid.

 Maybe everybody is totally incapable of comprehending something -
 after all, human knowledge is much bigger than the size of human
 brains :-)

Yeah, you're probably right that everyone is probably guaranteed to be  
incapable of total comprehension of *something*; I was being a little  
narrower in intent, though, as in Totally incapable of comprehending  
X, where X is something presumably simple to grasp, such as number  
lines or the dangers of lighting firecrackers and swallowing them.

--
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Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 5, 2007, at 8:54 PM, jon louis mann wrote:

  in that sense stupid is not only relative, but its definition  
 depends on what one chooses to believe to be true knowledge.   
 perhaps how you determine what is truth is genuine wisdom.

Or at least one aspect of it, yeah, maybe.

 one who chooses to remain ignorant about arguments that logically  
 refute their belief system may instead excercise their consider  
 intellect to rationalize their belief just as newton tried to  
 resolve religion with science to keep the church off his back.

I'm not convinced he was doing it to avoid evangelical persecution.  
There appears to have been a little too much zealotry in his pursuit  
to make it seem entirely like a cover story.

--
Warren Ockrassa
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Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
Web   | http://www.nightwares.com/

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 5, 2007, at 8:46 PM, Julia Thompson wrote:

 On Wed, 5 Dec 2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 If you're thinking of stupid as meaning inclined to mental  
 laziness,
 I'd probably agree, but my personal working definition of stupid is
 (more or less) totally incapable of comprehending something. I  
 don't
 believe the concepts are equivalent, and I don't believe most  
 people fit
 that definition of stupid.

 I have several categories for people who don't have given  
 information or
 knowledge:

 1)  Ignorant (but probably willing to learn, or at least not  
 rejecting the
 information)

 2)  Willfully ignorant (actively rejecting the information)

 3)  Stupid

 Ignorance can be cured with information.  Stupidity can't.  Willful
 ignorance is the worst, IMO.  Brittle dogmatism leads to willful  
 ignorance
 in a number of cases, hence is a very negative thing.

I like the categories. Willful ignorance is inarguably the worst.  
Stubbornness in general is frustrating, but when it's combined with  
wealth and/or power, and particularly with willful ignorance, the  
combination is much more than annoying; it can be actively,  
aggressively dangerous.

For instance, CNN reported today that Bush was told back in August  
that Iran had dismantled its nuke program -- yet he continued pushing  
the panic button and beating the war drum, *exactly as he did with  
Iraq*. And yet no one is commenting on the obvious inability he has to  
either (1) learn from history; or (2) give a shit.*

Of course it goes both ways -- Huckabee's rising in popularity despite  
the fact he's clearly an even more deranged, fundamentalist wacko than  
Bush. Despite the last seven ghastly years, there are people in the US  
who want even *more* of this kind of garbage.

And no, you can't fix stupid. ;)

==

* Either choice works, and of course it doesn't have to be either/or.

--
Warren Ockrassa
Blog  | http://indigestible.nightwares.com/
Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
Web   | http://www.nightwares.com/

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 For instance, CNN reported today that Bush was told back in August
 that Iran had dismantled its nuke program -- yet he continued pushing
 the panic button and beating the war drum, *exactly as he did with
 Iraq*. And yet no one is commenting on the obvious inability he has to
 either (1) learn from history; or (2) give a shit.*

Bush did that because he's a genius, who sees far into the future, much
clearly than any of us. The panic button raises the price of oil, etc, etc.

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Correlation v. causality (was Re: Poll finds more Americans believe in devil than Darwin)

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 05:47 PM Wednesday 12/5/2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
On Dec 5, 2007, at 5:39 AM, William T Goodall wrote:

 
  On 5 Dec 2007, at 00:55, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
 
  On Dec 4, 2007, at 10:56 AM, William T Goodall wrote:
 
 
  And people who think like that are dangerous to themselves and
  others.
  Hence religion is evil.
 
  No more nor less so than any other institution.
 
  Other institutions don't necessarily require people to believe untrue
  things.

Some religions require that, yes. That does not justify tarring the
entire field with the same brush.

The UU church, for instance, doesn't particularly have any articles of
faith (which could be one reason membership* numbers seem so low) and
doesn't particularly care if you ascribe to any given belief system.

Furthermore there are ample cases of individuals being motivated to
perform good deeds as a direct result of religious teachings, which is
pretty much inarguable proof that the statement religion is evil is
simply not correct.

It *can* be evil, there are myriad times when it *is* evil, but your
statement that religion *is* evil is functionally equivalent to saying
that, since some people are anaphylactically allergic to shellfish,
all shellfish are lethal poisons to all individuals. It's just not true.


Agreed.


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 09:55 PM Tuesday 12/4/2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:

Anthropic principle aside, sexual selection might go a pretty decent
way toward explaining why we have such vastly oversized brains with
which to observe the universe, make deductions and inferences about
it, and contemplate a nice cup of gyokuro tea.

Sexual selection in birds, for instance, appears to be the reason
for a peacock's tail; an analogous mechanism in primates might have
led to a positive feedback loop that resulted in a ludicrously
disproportionate enlarging of the brain.

So, alas, size might matter after all.


Yes.  Most of us have observed how the high school coeds all flock to 
the big-brained geeks and nerds and leave the jocks to sit home alone 
on Friday nights.


-- Ronn!  :)



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Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread jon louis mann
snippits:
  I'm not convinced he was doing it to avoid evangelical persecution.  
There appears to have been a little too much zealotry in his pursuit  
to make it seem entirely like a cover story.
  Warren Ockrassa 

people, after all, built the Parthenon, the Soyuz and nukes, so there
must be something that forces people to act non-stupidly sometimes.
   
  But since it's impossible to define stupidity, it's also impossible to
prove that most people are stupid. If we take an average brinller
as the measure, it's obvious that most (other) people are stupid...

  human knowledge is much bigger than the size of human brains :-)

  most people *are* incapable of comprehending simple things... due to a lack 
of education or lack of nutrients during an early phase of the life; otherwise, 
the future of mankind will be horrible.
Alberto Monteiro

  newton had to adapt to the context of his times and find a way to resolve 
mathematics and the church.  he didn't succeed, but he wasn't burned at the 
stake.  
  social insects create incredible engineering marvels, and so do humans, but 
few individuals can understand relativity.  our scientists stand on the 
shoulders of giants, and with the help of guided research and quantum computer 
modeling, we may be approaching the trans human singularity.  
  ayn rand believed the masses of humanity were morons and would return to 
bestiality if not for the altruism of the elite who were kind enough to harness 
their labor so we plebians could reap the benefits of civilization.
  jon


   
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 08:07 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, jon louis mann wrote:

   ayn rand believed the masses of humanity were morons and would 
 return to bestiality if not for the altruism of the elite who were 
 kind enough to harness their labor so we plebians could reap the 
 benefits of civilization.
   jon


Whereas various Christian religions teach that man is a child of 
God or was made a little lower than the angels and so that every 
human being has worth first of all and foremost because s/he IS a 
human being, and that we should treat them as having that worth.


Again Practice Sometimes Falls Short Of The Ideal Maru


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 08:30 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
On Dec 6, 2007, at 7:24 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:
  At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:
  On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:
 
  The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
  stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
  argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.
 
  Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to
  something new?
 
  I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared
  with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .

This should not, of course, be confused with Satan's pr0n.

I'm not sure what that would be, and I'm quite confident I don't want
to know.



I suspect, however, that if your curiosity ever gets the better of 
you entering that term into a (non-net-nannied) search engine would 
turn something up . . .


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 6, 2007, at 7:24 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:

 At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:


 On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to  
 something new?

 I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared
 with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .

This should not, of course, be confused with Satan's pr0n.

I'm not sure what that would be, and I'm quite confident I don't want  
to know.

--
Warren Ockrassa
Blog  | http://indigestible.nightwares.com/
Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
Web   | http://www.nightwares.com/

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Ronn! Blankenship wrote:

 It might help to define what you mean by stupid

 As opposed to common working definition used by many people of
 disagrees with me . . . ? ;)

It's not true that everybody that disagree with me is stupid! There are
those that are really smart, but disagree because they are evil, and
want to deceive other people into their evil ways.

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Julia Thompson wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?

Ok, Satan's pawns. Or Satan's claws, if you want to get methaphorical :-)

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:


On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

  The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
  stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
  argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?

 Julia



I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared 
with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .



Hot As You-Know-What Maru


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Lies and Damn Lies

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 09:10 AM Thursday 12/6/2007, Nick Arnett wrote:
On Dec 6, 2007 5:45 AM, Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:

  May be helpful if those are not good enough:
 
  http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/
  http://www.giveawayoftheday.com/statplus/
 
  Cool, thanks... Never heard of this site before.

Nick


You're welcome.  As with everything, much of what is offered there 
may not be useful or interesting to any given user, but if you're 
patient from time to time you may get something you can really use.


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Julia Thompson


On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?

Julia

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 06:07 PM Wednesday 12/5/2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:

It might help to define what you mean by stupid


As opposed to common working definition used by many people of 
disagrees with me . . . ? ;)


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
Warren Ockrassa wrote:

 Which decision?

 That people are stupid. The argument you offered suggests you decided
 that people are stupid, and were doing an after-the-fact expansion on
 the point of view. I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but that
 the structure of what you wrote seemed to be justifying a conclusion
 rather than building a foundation for it.

No, I _observed_ that people are stupid. This conflicts with the data that
people, after all, built the Parthenon, the Soyuz and nukes, so there
must be something that forces people to act non-stupidly sometimes.

 Stupid = not able to think clearly. People who believe that
 a fairy may turn 2 + 2 into fish.

 Oh, that's not stupid; it's surrealism! :D

Of course you don't have pre-teen children, or you would not miss
the reference :-)

 More seriously, though, even the term not able to think clearly
 doesn't necessarily indicate much about a given person's mind or
 mental faculties. Many people are not able to think clearly when
 they're angry, for instance, which renders temporary stupidity; as
 Julia pointed out some *choose* not to think clearly, which tends to
 lead others into ... anger. Some people don't have the tools to think
 clearly but that's only because they lack the training; others are
 genuinely organically dysfunctional and blameless about their
 inability to think clearly.

Ok, so we are just diverging on the _number_ of stupid people.

 And with groups in play, stupidity might be relative. Consider, for
 instance, that a YEC would consider most biologists, paleontologists,
 anthropologists, physicists and geologists as being incredibly stupid
 for not seeing the obvious clarity of the point of view that aligns
 to
  strict Biblical interpretation.

 Ah, the relativity of evaluation...

 Yes, that's correct. Were you rebutting the validity of the above?

The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

But since it's impossible to define stupidity, it's also impossible to
prove that most people are stupid. If we take an average brinller
as the measure, it's obvious that most (other) people are stupid...

 And that is relevant, because Isaac Newton was a young-earth
 creationist and, when he wasn't inventing calculus in order to define
 physics and optics, he was trying to find proofs of a literal
 interpretation of Biblical teachings. So which was he? Stupid or
 brilliant?

 At that time? He was extremely brilliant! Not being a literal
 interpreter
 of the Bible had dangerous consequences those times, like having his
 brain physically separated from his heart by more than 2 meters.

 During the Enlightenment? 

IIRC (I could wikipedia for it, but it's not worth it), Kepler's mother
had some problems one or two generations before Newton, for
being accused of witchery. England, around the time of Newton,
had a bloody revolution. Those were dangerous times - freedom
of speech was bought with the blood of martyrs [ouch, I sound
poetic...]

 Not so much so. Inventing physics from
 nothing was a heck of an achievement, but the literalism he tried to
 justify was much more than simply a hobby or something he was doing to
 save face. He was genuinely committed to proving the literal truth of
 the Bible.

So? Maybe he thought he had the mathematical tools to do that.

 Maybe everybody is totally incapable of comprehending something -
 after all, human knowledge is much bigger than the size of human
 brains :-)

 Yeah, you're probably right that everyone is probably guaranteed to be
 incapable of total comprehension of *something*; I was being a little
 narrower in intent, though, as in Totally incapable of comprehending
 X, where X is something presumably simple to grasp, such as number
 lines or the dangers of lighting firecrackers and swallowing them.

Ah, now we agree. From what I have seen, most people is totally
incapable of comprehending those simple things. I just hope this
is due to a lack of education or lack of nutrients during an early
phase of the life; otherwise, the future of mankind will be horrible.

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: Weekly Chat Reminder

2007-12-06 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
William T Goodall wrote:

 It works on (...) Linux (...)(

No, it doesn't.

Alberto Monteiro
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Re: dogmatism v. pragmatism

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 06:00 PM Wednesday 12/5/2007, Charlie Bell wrote:

On 06/12/2007, at 3:05 AM, Nick Arnett wrote:
 
  I'm also a committed Christian and there's nothing incompatible
  about the
  two.

Except insofar as Christianity makes claims about how the world is.
IIRC, you're a Lutheran, and the American Lutheran church is fairly
progressive. But saying there's *nothing* incompatible about the two
would seem to be a stretch - even if you subscribe to the viewpoint of
non-overlapping magisteria there are bound to be cases where you
simply have to make a value judgement between what your religion tells
you and how the world appears to actually be, no?

   My church and lots of others around here are full of scientists and
  engineers -- this is Silicon Valley, after all. Some may find that
  their
  beliefs and their science collide, but I assure you that most don't.

Because they genuinely don't collide at all, or because of
compartmentalisation?


The usual answer in practice to that question:

If »—› I ‹—« do it, it's because they genuinely don't collide.

If »—› you ‹—« do it, it's because of 
compartmentalization (aided perhaps by 
rationalization and/or self-delusion).  ;)


-- Ronn! :)

People who want to share their religious views 
with you almost never want you to share yours with them.
-- Dave Barry



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Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread jon louis mann
It's not true that everybody that disagree with me is stupid! There are
those that are really smart, but disagree because they are evil, and
want to deceive other people into their evil ways.
Alberto Monteiro
   
  no, alberto, the evil, smart people you are referring to want to deceive 
evil, stupid people into their evil ways, even though the poor fools are 
reaally victims who are paying high gasoline prices and losing homes they 
didn't really have the credit to purchase.
  jonathan mann
  
 

   
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 10:06 PM Tuesday 12/4/2007, Nick Arnett wrote:
On Dec 4, 2007 7:55 PM, Warren Ockrassa [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 
 
  BTW, are you referring to the strong or weak anthropic model?
 

Strong.

And I just have to add, to be reasonably silly... the weak one is doomed --
survival of the fittest.

Nick


Does that reasoning apply to nuclear forces, too?


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 6, 2007, at 7:36 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:

 At 08:30 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Warren Ockrassa wrote:
 On Dec 6, 2007, at 7:24 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:
 At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:
 On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to
 something new?

 I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared
 with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .

 This should not, of course, be confused with Satan's pr0n.

 I'm not sure what that would be, and I'm quite confident I don't want
 to know.

 I suspect, however, that if your curiosity ever gets the better of
 you entering that term into a (non-net-nannied) search engine would
 turn something up . . .

Very likely.

Which is why I'm not even going to try. Hysterical blindness is not  
something I want to experience.

--
Warren Ockrassa
Blog  | http://indigestible.nightwares.com/
Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
Web   | http://www.nightwares.com/

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Re: Weekly Chat Reminder

2007-12-06 Thread William T Goodall

On 7 Dec 2007, at 00:46, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 William T Goodall wrote:

 It works on (...) Linux (...)(

 No, it doesn't.


It works in Firefox in Ubuntu Edgy Eft with  Java installed. I just  
tried it. Here is a .png of it working:-

http://idisk.mac.com/williamgoodall-Public/UbuntuChat.png


-- 
William T Goodall
Mail : [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Web  : http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk
Blog : http://radio.weblogs.com/0111221/

Two years from now, spam will be solved. - Bill Gates, 2004


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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 09:47 AM Thursday 12/6/2007, William T Goodall wrote:
On 6 Dec 2007, at 15:17, Nick Arnett wrote:

  But thank goodness that people with scientific beliefs never have any
  trouble confronting information that conflicts with their beliefs.If
  scientists weren't so open-minded and willing to abandon old
  theories in a flash, science would hardly move forward at all!

This is completely irrelevant misdirection and entirely typical of the
faith-addled response to a reasonable discussion.


No, it is an inevitable observation of anyone who has actually worked 
in scientific research and seen that Sturgeon's Law (and its 
corollary) applies equally as well to new scientific ideas (including 
ones they themselves come up with) as it does to the contents of the 
in-basket at any publisher of FSF . . .


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Weekly Chat Reminder

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 08:38 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, William T Goodall wrote:

Two years from now, spam will be solved. - Bill Gates, 2004


Is that anything like Fusion power is only about thirty years away 
(ca. 1970) ?


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 05:10 PM Tuesday 12/4/2007, hkhenson wrote:

snip

I favor direct selection via a primary mortality mode in the EEA,


EEA?

European Education Association?

Early Early A.M.?


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: dogmatism v. pragmatism

2007-12-06 Thread Ronn! Blankenship
At 03:31 PM Wednesday 12/5/2007, jon louis mann wrote:
i haven't seen him in years but hear that he has 
mellowed and no longer drinks excessively.
   jon



Last time I saw him in person was in 2005.  The 
latter condition has indeed made a noticeable 
difference since the first time I met him.

(I think that is a simple statement of fact — 
which can be verified independently by other witnesses — not gossip.)


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Correlation v. causality (was Re: Poll finds more Americans believe in devil than Darwin)

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 6, 2007, at 6:29 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:

 It *can* be evil, there are myriad times when it *is* evil, but your
 statement that religion *is* evil is functionally equivalent to  
 saying
 that, since some people are anaphylactically allergic to shellfish,
 all shellfish are lethal poisons to all individuals. It's just not  
 true.


 Agreed.

What, no Satan's prawn reference here? Or was that just too obvious?

--
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Blog  | http://indigestible.nightwares.com/
Books | http://books.nightwares.com/
Web   | http://www.nightwares.com/

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Julia Thompson


On Thu, 6 Dec 2007, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:

 At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:


 On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?

 Julia



 I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared
 with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .



 Hot As You-Know-What Maru

Not so bad if there's pickled ginger around.

At least, that's the case if the hot is from wasabi

Julia

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RE: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Pat Mathews
Does Satan have retractable claws at the end of his paws? 

http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/



Now is the winter of our discontent

 Date: Thu, 6 Dec 2007 20:24:41 -0600
 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject: Re: Correlation v. causality
 
 At 07:06 PM Thursday 12/6/2007, Julia Thompson wrote:
 
 
 On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:
 
   The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
   stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
   argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.
 
 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?
 
  Julia
 
 
 
 I thought it was a reference to satan's prawns:  seafood prepared 
 with an extra-hot spicy coating . . .
 
 
 
 Hot As You-Know-What Maru
 
 
 -- Ronn!  :)
 
 
 
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Re: dogmatism v. pragmatism

2007-12-06 Thread Julia Thompson



On Thu, 6 Dec 2007, Ronn! Blankenship wrote:


At 03:31 PM Wednesday 12/5/2007, jon louis mann wrote:

i haven't seen him in years but hear that he has
mellowed and no longer drinks excessively.
  jon




Last time I saw him in person was in 2005.  The
latter condition has indeed made a noticeable
difference since the first time I met him.

(I think that is a simple statement of fact —
which can be verified independently by other witnesses — not gossip.)


And this seems to be the case in general with people who drink in their 
youth and drink a lot less as they grow older.


Julia
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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Julia Thompson


On Fri, 7 Dec 2007, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 Julia Thompson wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to something new?

 Ok, Satan's pawns. Or Satan's claws, if you want to get methaphorical :-)

Claws works.  Thanks!

Julia

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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Dave Land
On Dec 6, 2007, at 6:22 PM, Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro wrote:

 Julia Thompson wrote:

 The datum can't be refutted: YEC would consider non-YEC as evil,
 stupid or satan's paws. I don't know how to connect this to the
 argument, namely, the measure of how many people are stupid.

 Do you mean satan's *pawns*, or have I just been exposed to  
 something new?

 Ok, Satan's pawns. Or Satan's claws, if you want to get  
 methaphorical :-)

No, no, no, you logic-addled fools, you Science-benumbed dupes!

They're Santa Claws, with which he holds the reins of his magical  
sleigh!

Sheesh.


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Re: Correlation v. causality

2007-12-06 Thread Warren Ockrassa
On Dec 6, 2007, at 10:37 PM, Dave Land wrote:

 They're Santa Claws, with which he holds the reins of his magical
 sleigh!

Slay. SLAY!

Sheesh indeed!

--
Warren Ockrassa
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