Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread Stuart A. Yeates
(a) Much software downloadable from the internet is legal (think gGo,
GnuGo, linux, etc), therefore downloading it from the internet is not
necessarily piracy.

(b) Most of the sums of money I've seen for competitions are trivial
(except the Ing Prize). This might easily change if/when computer go
programs reach high dan level.

(c) There is a large market for Go equipment. I've been told that go
sets are Nintendo's #1 selling product line. I've never bought go
equipment in asia, but the market seems huge.

(d) If I woke up tomorrow with a winning go program, I'd be tempted to
market it as a service. There certainly seems to be a large market for
go services in asia.

If you have what you think is a winning computer-go program, I suggest
you invest in a business plan
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_plan) sooner rather than later.

cheers

On Fri, Nov 21, 2008 at 8:53 PM, Michael Gherrity [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 Hi,

 I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go program
 would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the amount of
 money that such a program would earn selling to the general public. I have
 also read that the biggest pirates of computer software come from Germany,
 the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we are hosting from Beijing
 China said that most people in China do not buy software, but download it
 for free off the net.

 So what is true?

 mike
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Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread Petri Pitkanen
Commercial market for Go software is in Japan in Korea. Western player
do not make significant numbers and Chinese probably find bettre uses
for money - although there more reach Chinese people than people in
Finland.

Petri

2008/11/21 Michael Gherrity [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
 Hi,

 I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go program
 would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the amount of
 money that such a program would earn selling to the general public. I have
 also read that the biggest pirates of computer software come from Germany,
 the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we are hosting from Beijing
 China said that most people in China do not buy software, but download it
 for free off the net.

 So what is true?

 mike



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e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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[computer-go] RE : UCT RefBot

2008-11-21 Thread Denis fidaali


 I think that most people trying go-programming will try at least to experiment 
once with UCT.
The first logical step, is to build an amaf-bot. The other logical step, is to 
build a UCT bot. That's exactly the path i followed. And i bet many others have 
done that too. So it may be guessed that many more will do so. I feel that the 
most important thing is to be able to be rightly confident that the 
implementation is roughly right. It's true that an implementation can also 
serves as a basis for something else. But that will not be possible if you 
can't get a strong confidence that it is rightly done.

 So i guess that you should keep things as simple as you can in your 
reference-implementation. Litles tweaks will be easily doable after you get the 
specification understandable once. For exemple, i do not think that the 
explore the pass lines are a must have. You can test an UCT implementation 
that never pass as long as there are valid moves left. (valid in the sense 
nor suicide, nor pseudo-eyes). That's simple. And yet i think the program can 
play strongly enougth (given enougth simulations are made - Say 50 000).

 UCT has many constants built in. (By the way, i don't really understand those 
2 and 10 factors. Wouldn't that go in the exploration-factor ?? as *sqrt(1/5) 
). I guess that any value would be good enougth, as long as it makes the 
behavior of the bot rather clear. So other people can adjust this factor, and 
compare their results. If later on, after the implementation has cought some 
attention, if one value get to be known as better, it'll still be time to put 
it in. It probably won't be a big fuss to adjust anyone's implementation to it 
anyway. You have to set up a conventionnal value that people can use as a 
reference, be it bad. SO 1.0 (or sqrt(1/5) would be Okay i suppose).

 I don't think that wasting simulations in the end-game is really a problem for 
a reference implementation.

The main problem i spot, is that you may need a fair number of simulations, to 
get some inter implementations reproducible data. Not everyone will be able or 
willing to put so much computing power to that usage. But even then, to have a 
reference specification will never be a loss. Especially once the 
AMAF-reference-specification start to get it's own pages (if it's not already 
the case : i have always have great trouble to track out all the links. Maybe 
it would be good to put it as a CGOS partner or something :) Then all people 
have to know is where to find CGOS. So the goal of the UCT-reference would be 
to be presented along with the AMAF-reference, with all the data that has been 
collected about how to make sure that one implementation behavior is correct. 
And also maybe, along with some popular boost (like the weight for the 
AMAF-ref), or a Basic way of making RAVE work with it. But that'll be later.


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Re: [computer-go] Re: UCT RefBot

2008-11-21 Thread Don Dailey
On Fri, 2008-11-21 at 01:34 +, Claus Reinke wrote:
 As a relative beginner in these matters, the more I look at AMAF,
 the less I like it, and I think that has to do with AMAF ignoring
 relative sequencing. By looking at all moves as if they were played
 first, it ignores that some moves only make sense after certain other
 moves. 

I feel the same way, but the bottom line is that it WORKS.  It works
incredible well in fact.  I was hard pressed to prove that just looking
at the FIRST move only is better, although intuitively I'm sure it
is.   

What you do is only look at the first move if you want to be anal about
it.Or if you have lots of time only look at the first move.   Or you
can be adaptive about it.   Look at ALL moves then as the number of
playouts increase, gradually give less and less priority to the
remaining moves. 

Michael Williams suggested de-emphasizing later moves but still using
them and this works quite well.

- Don



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Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread Don Dailey
On Thu, 2008-11-20 at 23:53 -0800, Michael Gherrity wrote:
 Hi,
 
 I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go  
 program would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the  
 amount of money that such a program would earn selling to the general  
 public. I have also read that the biggest pirates of computer software  
 come from Germany, the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we  
 are hosting from Beijing China said that most people in China do not  
 buy software, but download it for free off the net.

My first chess program only sold a few copies in Europe.  But I came to
find out that thousands of people had a copy of it.I met many people
in Europe who said they had a copy and many of their friends did.
Someone pointed me a site where you could download it for free.

For some reason I believed that Europeans in general would be more
honest about stuff like this and that we were wild and violent, they
were more civilized (we have guns like you wouldn't believe, they have
very few) etc.Maybe we are more violent but more honest too?   But I
know that as a culture we are not very honest either ... 

- Don


 So what is true?
 
 mike
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Re: [computer-go] RE : UCT RefBot

2008-11-21 Thread Mark Boon


On 21-nov-08, at 09:34, Denis fidaali wrote:
 I think that most people trying go-programming will try at least  
to experiment once with UCT.
The first logical step, is to build an amaf-bot. The other logical  
step, is to build a UCT bot. That's exactly the path i followed.  
And i bet many others have done that too. So it may be guessed that  
many more will do so. I feel that the most important thing is to be  
able to be rightly confident that the implementation is roughly  
right. It's true that an implementation can also serves as a basis  
for something else. But that will not be possible if you can't get  
a strong confidence that it is rightly done.


 So i guess that you should keep things as simple as you can in  
your reference-implementation. Litles tweaks will be easily doable  
after you get the specification understandable once. For exemple, i  
do not think that the explore the pass lines are a must have. You  
can test an UCT implementation that never pass as long as there are  
valid moves left. (valid in the sense nor suicide, nor pseudo- 
eyes). That's simple. And yet i think the program can play strongly  
enougth (given enougth simulations are made - Say 50 000).


 UCT has many constants built in. (By the way, i don't really  
understand those 2 and 10 factors. Wouldn't that go in the  
exploration-factor ?? as *sqrt(1/5) ). I guess that any value would  
be good enougth, as long as it makes the behavior of the bot rather  
clear. So other people can adjust this factor, and compare their  
results. If later on, after the implementation has cought some  
attention, if one value get to be known as better, it'll still be  
time to put it in. It probably won't be a big fuss to adjust  
anyone's implementation to it anyway. You have to set up a  
conventionnal value that people can use as a reference, be it bad.  
SO 1.0 (or sqrt(1/5) would be Okay i suppose).


 I don't think that wasting simulations in the end-game is really a  
problem for a reference implementation.


The main problem i spot, is that you may need a fair number of  
simulations, to get some inter implementations reproducible data.  
Not everyone will be able or willing to put so much computing power  
to that usage. But even then, to have a reference specification  
will never be a loss. Especially once the AMAF-reference- 
specification start to get it's own pages (if it's not already the  
case : i have always have great trouble to track out all the links.  
Maybe it would be good to put it as a CGOS partner or something :)  
Then all people have to know is where to find CGOS. So the goal of  
the UCT-reference would be to be presented along with the AMAF- 
reference, with all the data that has been collected about how to  
make sure that one implementation behavior is correct. And also  
maybe, along with some popular boost (like the weight for the AMAF- 
ref), or a Basic way of making RAVE work with it. But that'll be  
later.


Denis,

I agree with most of what you write. But there's a bit of friction  
between two of the goals. On the one hand a reference implementation  
is ideally as simple as possible. On the other hand you need to take  
limited computing power into account for testing. For testing new  
ideas you want your base-line (which will be something similar to the  
reference-bot) to have as good a strength/CPU-time ratio as possible.


The simplest and cleanest would be a UCT-search without AMAF (or  
RAVE). But if it turns out AMAF would give a big boost in strength  
for virtually the same performance I think it should be considered.  
In my search implementation AMAF adds something like 20-30 lines of  
code in a single place, so the impact on the complexity is not so  
large. So far I'm still testing whether AMAF actually adds much or  
not. But if it turns out it doesn't it will be easy to remove.


With regards to the formula sqrt( 2 * (log(parent-visits) / (10*  
visits)) I admit I simply copied it from somewhere and never properly  
thought about it. so you're correct that in fact I'm using a  
exploration-factor of sqrt(1/5) instead of 1.0. I'll modify my code  
to make this more clear.


Mark

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Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread terry mcintyre
 From: Michael Gherrity [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 
 I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go program would 
 make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the amount of money that 
 such a program would earn selling to the general public.

That is obviously true. Prizes are measured in hundreds or perhaps thousands, 
whereas a top program can sell hundreds of thousands of copies, at $50 per; 
especially if there is a Japanese-language version. The author of Many Faces of 
Go, David Fotland, once posted some numbers to this list, if I recall 
correctly; they were fairly impressive, and certainly far greater than the 
prize money itself. But the prize certainly increases marketability and profits.

  I have also read that the biggest pirates of computer software come from 
 Germany, the UK, and the US. 
 The foreign exchange student we are hosting from Beijing China said that most 
 people in China do not buy software, but download it for free off the net.
 
 So what is true?

I don't have numbers regarding software piracy; I'm suspicious of anyone who 
claims to know how many bootleg copies of software are out there, unless the 
software somehow leaves footprints - for instance, it may phone home, or may 
need to access a server for some purpose. Microsoft, I think, has numbers of 
people who upgrade Windows, versus the number of copies actually purchased. 
Maybe this explains the quantity of bugs in initial releases -- incentive to 
phone home for security upgrades?

My thinking is that it is better to encourage people to support authors than to 
spend a great deal of effort making software unusable.


  
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Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread terry mcintyre
Americans have, generally speaking, more respect for the rights of others - and 
guns play a part in that, since many of us choose to defend our rights 
directly. As Heinlein wrote: An armed society is a polite society.

 
Google pink pistols and terry mcintyre if you wish.

I say in general, but there are of course subcultures which have a lot less 
respect for peace and honesty than others.

There was a fellow who sold bagels in office buildings in Washington, DC; 
customers paid on the honor system by dropping money into a box. A line to an 
article about his experiences is below. Paul F. found that 80-90% of customers 
would voluntarily drop money into a box to pay for his products. He also 
discovered that people in higher executive offices were less honest than the 
more ordinary working stiffs.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D04E1DA1431F935A35755C0A9629C8B63sec=spon=pagewanted=1

Terry McIntyre [EMAIL PROTECTED]


-- Libertarians Do It With Consent!


- Original Message 
 From: Don Dailey [EMAIL PROTECTED]

 
 On Thu, 2008-11-20 at 23:53 -0800, Michael Gherrity wrote:
  Hi,
  
  I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go  
  program would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the  
  amount of money that such a program would earn selling to the general  
  public. I have also read that the biggest pirates of computer software  
  come from Germany, the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we  
  are hosting from Beijing China said that most people in China do not  
  buy software, but download it for free off the net.
 
 My first chess program only sold a few copies in Europe.  But I came to
 find out that thousands of people had a copy of it.I met many people
 in Europe who said they had a copy and many of their friends did.
 Someone pointed me a site where you could download it for free.
 
 For some reason I believed that Europeans in general would be more
 honest about stuff like this and that we were wild and violent, they
 were more civilized (we have guns like you wouldn't believe, they have
 very few) etc.Maybe we are more violent but more honest too?   But I
 know that as a culture we are not very honest either ... 
 
 - Don
 


  
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RE: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread David Fotland
I've sold 3 copies of Many Faces of Go in China, but when I travel to China
I check in computer stores, they always have it available for a low price.
I have a collection of Chinese versions of Many Faces, one with a 30 page
Chinese language manual explaining all the features in Chinese.  I would say
that for computer go, China is the biggest pirate.

For version 11 I had very simple copy protection.  It only worked if you
installed it from the CD - copying the exe was not enough.  The CD image was
over 30 MB, and in 2002, that was too much for most people to email or
download.  Today that size is file is easy to transmit.  Last year I saw
sales of version 11 go down to about 1/3 of what they were.  Some of this is
due to the age of the program, but a lot must be due to piracy.  This is why
version 12 has copy protection.  I don't like copy protection, but the ease
of making free copies requires it.

Prizes in computer go today are small or nonexistent.  The ICGA world
championship makes you pay to enter.

David

 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:computer-go-
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Don Dailey
 Sent: Friday, November 21, 2008 5:34 AM
 To: computer-go
 Subject: Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program
 
 On Thu, 2008-11-20 at 23:53 -0800, Michael Gherrity wrote:
  Hi,
 
  I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go
  program would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the
  amount of money that such a program would earn selling to the general
  public. I have also read that the biggest pirates of computer software
  come from Germany, the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we
  are hosting from Beijing China said that most people in China do not
  buy software, but download it for free off the net.
 
 My first chess program only sold a few copies in Europe.  But I came to
 find out that thousands of people had a copy of it.I met many people
 in Europe who said they had a copy and many of their friends did.
 Someone pointed me a site where you could download it for free.
 
 For some reason I believed that Europeans in general would be more honest
 about stuff like this and that we were wild and violent, they were more
 civilized (we have guns like you wouldn't believe, they have
 very few) etc.Maybe we are more violent but more honest too?   But I
 know that as a culture we are not very honest either ...
 
 - Don
 
 
  So what is true?
 
  mike
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RE: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread David Fotland
My sales in Japan through AI IGO are 10x or more the sales of Many Faces
English.  English sales are about evenly split between USA and Europe.  I
have more sales to Finland than to China.

David

 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:computer-go-
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Petri Pitkanen
 Sent: Friday, November 21, 2008 12:23 AM
 To: computer-go
 Subject: Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program
 
 Commercial market for Go software is in Japan in Korea. Western player
 do not make significant numbers and Chinese probably find bettre uses
 for money - although there more reach Chinese people than people in
 Finland.
 
 Petri
 
 2008/11/21 Michael Gherrity [EMAIL PROTECTED]:
  Hi,
 
  I have read that the amount of money that a winning computer go program
  would make in a go tournament is insignificant compared to the amount of
  money that such a program would earn selling to the general public. I
have
  also read that the biggest pirates of computer software come from
Germany,
  the UK, and the US. The foreign exchange student we are hosting from
Beijing
  China said that most people in China do not buy software, but download
it
  for free off the net.
 
  So what is true?
 
  mike
 
 
 
 --
 Petri Pitkänen
 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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Re: [computer-go] Selling a computer go program

2008-11-21 Thread Don Dailey
On Fri, 2008-11-21 at 07:53 -0800, terry mcintyre wrote:
 Americans have, generally speaking, more respect for the rights of
 others - and guns play a part in that, since many of us choose to
 defend our rights directly. As Heinlein wrote: An armed society is a
 polite society.

I don't want to get into a political discussion here - but I did start
it!  

 
  
 Google pink pistols and terry mcintyre if you wish.
 
 I say in general, but there are of course subcultures which have a
 lot less respect for peace and honesty than others.
 
 There was a fellow who sold bagels in office buildings in Washington,
 DC; customers paid on the honor system by dropping money into a box. A
 line to an article about his experiences is below. Paul F. found that
 80-90% of customers would voluntarily drop money into a box to pay for
 his products. He also discovered that people in higher executive
 offices were less honest than the more ordinary working stiffs.

I can believe that.   The Detroit top executives went to Washington
asking for bail-out money - but they flew there in their private jets
and this offended some of the congressmen there.

It seemed crass to me too.   Even if I had a private jet I think I would
have at least not been so undignified about it.

- Don



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[computer-go] Handtalk's Chen Zhixing

2008-11-21 Thread Ian Osgood

The following was posted on Sensei's Library:

  Prof. Chen passed away at Oct 12, 2008, at the age of 77.

Can anyone confirm or deny?

Ian

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Re: [computer-go] Handtalk's Chen Zhixing

2008-11-21 Thread John Fan
I read it on Chinese news and forums as well.

On Fri, Nov 21, 2008 at 12:57 PM, Ian Osgood [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 The following was posted on Sensei's Library:

  Prof. Chen passed away at Oct 12, 2008, at the age of 77.

 Can anyone confirm or deny?

 Ian

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[computer-go] On Don Dailey's first chess program

2008-11-21 Thread Ingo Althöfer
Dear Don,

sorry to step in here, but I can't believe what you
write. So I would like to know some facts.

 My first chess program only sold a few copies in Europe.  

What was the name of your program?
In which year was it published?
For what platform had it been?

 But I came to find out that thousands of people had a copy of it.   

To which countries of Europe were your contacts?
(Europe is NOT one big uniform block...)

 I met many people in Europe who said they had a copy and 
 many of their friends did.

I was a very active chess software use for many years.
I never had heard that you had written some commercial
program. (I only know about Star Socrates - where you were
involved - and which was runner-up in the 1995 World
Championships.)

 Someone pointed me a site where you could download it for free.

Which was that site?

Ingo, European without pirated software.

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