[PEN-L:7472] Int'l Day of Protest Against War in Yugoslavia
For folks in the Toronto area. -- BOMBS WON'T BRING PEACE STOP THE WAR International Day of Protest Saturday, June 5, 1pm Liberal Party HQ 10 St. Mary St. (2 blocks south of Bloor on west side of Yonge) ENDORSED by: Coalition Against the War in the Balkans, Labour Council of Toronto and York Region, Centre for Peace in the Balkans, People Against the MAI, Canadian Federation of Students Ontario, Canadian Federation of Students National, Youth Against the War in Yugoslavia, Citizens Concerned About Free Trade, Womens' International League for Peace and Freedom Toronto Branch, Association of Serbian Women, Toronto Kurdish Community and Information Centre, Federation of Mainland Chinese Organizations of Ontario, YugoslavChinese Friendship Alliance, Communist Party of Canada Toronto Cttee, Parkdale for Peace, Ontario College of Art and Design Student Union, Federation of Chinese Students and Professionals in Canada, Canadian Voice of Women for Peace. For more info or to endorse call: (416)812-6702
[PEN-L:6878] Yeltsin is a US President?
Hi folks, This is a funny misprint, originally from Agence France Presse. It seems Boris Yeltsin is identified as a US President? The mistake is ironic, but at the same time not very surprising, because the discussion is about the impeachment of a President. In solidarity, Greg. -- Washington "Pleased" Russian Law Respected in Duma Vote WASHINGTON, May. 16, 1999 -- (Agence France Presse) The White House said Saturday it was pleased Russia's lower house of parliament respected the constitution during impeachment proceedings against US President Boris Yeltsin, but shied away from commenting on the vote's outcome. "The impeachment vote is an internal Russian political matter, but we are pleased constitutional procedures were respected," National Security Council spokesman Mike Hammer told AFP. "We look forward to working in the coming days with the Russian leadership and Duma on a full range of international issues, including our joint efforts on Kosovo," he added. The Russian Duma voted down an effort to impeach Yeltsin, rejecting all five charges against him. The impeachment charges blamed Yeltsin for the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the war in Chechnya and the armed assault on parliament in 1993. He was also charged with ruining the army and with committing "genocide" against the Russian people. ( (c) 1999 Agence France Presse)
[PEN-L:6625] Re: POST-WAR DISILLUSIONMENT AHEAD; Yugoslav Army OrdersKosovoPullout; Chicano POWs Return; Clinton Quest for Appearance ofVictory
Just so people know, Michael Bliss (see article below) is a right-wing history professor (or as many of us on the local activist scene like to label him - the myth maker of Western civilization) at the University of Toronto. The article is written for a right-wing newspaper, which is owner by a real right-wing media mogul (owning something to the tune of 70% of Canada's printed media), Conrad Black. Nevertheless, Bliss's anti-war position (however misguided his analysis and however sinister the intentions that belie it) is praiseworthy. In an anti-war movement, "rag-tag" is inevitable. In solidarity, Greg. Michael Eisenscher wrote: > IN THIS MESSAGE: POST-WAR DISILLUSIONMENT AHEAD; Yugoslav Army Orders Kosovo > Pullout; Chicano POWs Return; Clinton Quest for Appearance of Victory > > The National Post Monday, May 10, 1999 > > POST-WAR DISILLUSIONMENT AHEAD > > We've reached such a level of callousness that our media > barely notice NATO's accidental murder of scores of civilians > in one incident after another. After the war ends, we'll surely > question > the barbarism into which we've descended. > > By Michael Bliss > > The idealists who support NATO's war against Yugoslavia will > suffer multiple disillusionments in its aftermath. > The ability to mobilize idealism has been the key to the public > support NATO's attacks on Yugoslavia have enjoyed. Important > legal and strategic issues have been swept aside by the claim that > the Milosevic regime represents radical evil, that it is pursuing a > genocidal policy of ethnic cleansing, which, according to NATO > and many Western politicians, includes systematic rape, mass > executions, and other atrocities. We are fighting a regime that > commits crimes against humanity, we are told, a government that > ranks with Hitler's or with the murderous regimes of Cambodia and > Rwanda. > Our side has no aim in the war except to stop the evil. We > desire no territory, and we are promising to spend billions after the > war rebuilding Yugoslavia and neighbouring countries. Even if the > war isn't going very well, we can at least take comfort in knowing > that our intentions are honourable. It's all OK, Gwynne Dyer told > Canadians early on in The Globe and Mail, because "at last," we > were involved in "a good war." The editors of the National Post > seem to take the same consolation. > Canadians are a particularly idealistic people when it comes to > world affairs, and this explains why we are one of the more hawkish [snip]
[PEN-L:6161] World Bank: Hardship for Eastern Europe
Dear pen-l'rs The following is a report from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a Federal US agency established at the height of the Cold War as a propaganda tool of the West for dealing with Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. Today it continues 'sucessfully' to carry on its mission! Regards, Greg. -- WORLD BANK PREDICTS ROUGH YEAR AHEAD FOR MOST EAST EUROPEAN STATES by Robert Lyle The World Bank's top official dealing with Russia and the other transition states in Central and Eastern Europe paints a sobering, even daunting, picture of what many in the region will face over the next year or so. Johannes Linn, the bank's vice president for Europe and Central Asia, says the region faces a protracted crisis of economic, social, and, most recently, security problems, especially over the next 12 months. Speaking to reporters in Washington on 25 April, before the start of this week's annual meetings of the bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Linn said Russia and Ukraine especially face serious economic difficulties "We continue to expect a decline in output and an uncertain political outlook due to elections that are coming up this year and next year," he said. "The social situation in these countries is fragile since incomes are continuing to decline and social support systems are continuing to weaken. Poverty is on the rise, in Russia, for example, in our estimate, almost 20 percent of the population is in extreme poverty. And we of course also see a situation where structural and social reforms are incomplete and proceeding only very slowly and with limited political support." Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic are the good news, he said, noting that these countries remain relatively stable and unaffected by the ongoing Russian financial crisis because of early reforms and strong policies. But for most former Soviet countries, the impact of that crisis has been severe and will be felt for a long time to come, according to Linn. The global economy won't make the real difference among these nations, he says, it depends on their own policies and their proximity to Russia. Asked about the lessons learned from the Asian and Russian financial crises, Linn said there were many, including the basics of strong domestic reforms. But one lesson that was part of Russia's collapse last summer was its strong defense of currency exchange rates. A major part of the IMF's last loan drawing for Russia was eaten up in the Central Bank's attempt to defend the exchange rate of the ruble. Linn says it is clear now this can lead to severe crises: "Ukraine is a good example where in fact a rather sensible management of getting away entirely from a fixed exchange rate in fact prevented the kind of meltdown we see in Russia. "The weakness of banking systems and supervision, linking this of course also with the exposure of short term debts, in appropriate foreign exchange positions--again Russia being a good example--are another important lesson that we are drawing for much more work and attention has to be given." Another significant lesson, according to Linn, is the danger of a weak social safety net. Very weak social protection systems are unable to deal with the fallout of severe economic crisis, he argued, noting that the case of Russia was particularly bad. "We had difficulty in engaging the Russians through 1996 in an active dialogue on social reforms," he noted, "and still have difficulty in Ukraine today. Earlier attention to social system reforms of social systems and then more significant action also would have helped in crisis response." Linn pointed out that Russia has still not dealt adequately with its social safety net and the deepening crisis only makes clearer that Russia cannot afford further postponement of reform. He said that in a recent study of the social system in Russia, the bank predicted that the worst of the crisis is still ahead in the coming 12 months. Next winter will be the hardest time, said Linn, far worse than this year. The bank projects that real personal incomes in Russia will fall an average of 13 percent through 1999, with the extreme poverty rate rising to more than 18 percent of the population, while social expenditures by the government will fall by 15 percent. More broadly for the region, Linn said the major lesson from the crisis has been the necessity of a political consensus on reforms. He compares the examples of Bulgaria and Romania: "Bulgaria has now in fact recovered from a severe financial crisis only two years ago because in fact it has pursued a consistent and comprehensive reform and stabilization process based on a reasonably clear and sustainable political consensus between the president, the government, parliament, and wide segments in the population. Romania, by contrast, has had considerable difficulties that one can trace back to the lack of
[PEN-L:6159] Imperialist strategy for "reconstructing" the Balkans
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PLANS BALKAN RECONSTRUCTION STRATEGY. Representatives of seven international agencies and 33 countries met in Washington on 27 April to discuss ways of meeting the immediate financial needs of and developing long- term reconstruction plans for Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, and Romania. The heads of the World Bank and IMF chaired the session, AP reported. Participants concluded that the international community is likely to underestimate the needs of the countries most affected by the conflict and that the international community should constantly review those estimates. In Athens, several government ministers appealed to Greek businessmen to take an active part in postwar regional reconstruction efforts. PM
[PEN-L:6160] Russia: New Military Doctrine/"Top Secret" Nukes
NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE TO BE READY IN THREE MONTHS. Talking to journalists on 27 April, Defense Minister Igor Sergeev expanded on his recent comments about the revision of Russia's military doctrine. Sergeev said Moscow is particularly concerned about two provisions of NATO's new strategic concept that enable the alliance to use force outside NATO's zone of responsibility and without the UN's consent. He added that the possibility of Baltic States' joining NATO "poses a serious threat to Russia" and "we will never be able to agree." If the Baltic States join NATO, Russia will have to take additional steps to minimize its security risks, he said. In an interview published in "Krasnaya Zvezda" the same day, Ivanov said that Russia's new military doctrine will be finished in three months and submitted to President Yeltsin for approval. Before NATO began air strikes against Yugoslavia, Ivanov predicted that a plan merging the armed forces strategic nuclear forces would be ready by May (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 11 February 1999). JAC NEW 'TOP-SECRET' NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM DISCUSSED. Russian President Boris Yeltsin on 29 April chaired a closed-door meeting of the Security Council on the development of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons policy. Russian Television reported that Yeltsin said Russia's nuclear forces are the "key element in ensuring the country's national security." After the meeting, Security Council Secretary Vladimir Putin told reporters that Yeltsin signed two decrees on the development of strategic nuclear and tactical weapons and approved the adoption of one program, which is of a "top- secret nature," ITAR-TASS reported. Putin also said that "Russia has not tested its nuclear weapons for a longer period of time than all other countries and this raises certain problems." He added that Russia is thinking of giving its specialists the possibility of moving ahead in "this sensitive sphere" without withdrawing from outstanding agreements. JAC
[PEN-L:5879] Toronto anti-war demo, coalition
If in Toronto and area, please join! -- PLEASE FORWARD WIDELY! Anti-war demo: 2 pm, Sunday, April 25 Starting at Liberal Party HQ, 10 St. Mary's @ Yonge (2 blocks south of Bloor, opposite the Church of Scientology) Demands: Stop the bombing! NATO out of Yugoslavia! Canada out of NATO! next meeting of Coalition Against the War in the Balkans: Wednesday, April 28 6:30 pm International Student Centre, 33 St George
[PEN-L:1981] Re: INTERNATIONALIZE THE CORPORATIONS !
This is rather millenerian? "The rapid development towards the political/environmental catastrophe"? That's what they said in ancient Egypt, Mesopotamia, and Greece (since these societies have left us written words). We are still here today, aren't we. It is simply called change! It's not good change; it is change we have little control over, and perhaps that's why, just like in the past, it seems rapid and suggests tomorrow's catastrphe. But it equally stands to reason that no change historically has been without an injury to 'good,' in the sense that good is scarcely to be found in the past few thousand years, at least. Some would say (myself including) we have been living in 'catastrophe' conditions since the development of speech, because that was the first time a human could share with other humans and realise that he/she was not alone in feeling the fact that today has replaced yesterday. "You never step into the same river twice." This has nothing to do with 'change' as a temporal phenomena; only with its quality. We will always feel that changes are "rapid" and may be even "towards a catastrophe," because they seem so rapid. So, the monopoly stage of capitalism might have seemed to some to represent the few final seconds of jouissance before the armaggedon. Well, Einstein's theory is again proven correct; one hundred years later we are still labouring through those last few seconds. Also, if I am chosing to fight homelessness in my neighbourhood, or the opression of women, or for adequate day-care facilities for children, or capitalism as a socio-cultural system generally, am I reactionary, because I am not fighting the transnational corporation, per se? Does not the transnational corporation exist by virtue that all those issues I have just mentioned worth fighting for have been supressed by the very logic the corporation operate (i.e. capital over labour)? To put _all_ your efforts into fighting the transnational corporation, and only the transnational corporation, is tantamount to waving your fists at the enemy while having the consequence of pushing him up to the higher ground and allowing him to gain more leverage over you as the basis on which he stands (i.e. the suppressed social costs) give him more room and firmer ground for manouvre. I would rather see the ground sink under him as I and my comrades shovel it out, for the beast we are attacking is no fist-fighter. In solidarity, Greg. U.P.secr. wrote: > > The rapid development toward the political / environmental > > catastrophes has reached the stage where only those > > aiming directly at terminating the transnational corporations > > are entitled to call themselves progressive. > > The march of events seems accelerating. > Here is another example seen on Leftlink. > Ole, [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://home4.inet.tele.dk/peoples > > -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1918] Russia: Zyuganov Statement on 'Jewish Question'
ia -- which are waging a destructive campaign against our fatherland and its morality, language, culture, and beliefs -- is concentrated in the hands of those same individuals. I am convinced that Russian citizens of all ethnic groups will have the wisdom to figure out these issues calmly and in a balanced way, without giving in to provocations and without allowing themselves to be whipped up into a state of nationalistic intoxicationt. There is a growing understanding among the people that all their current woes are based on the criminal policy of the antipeople non-national [vnenatsionalnyy] oligarchy which has seized power. Only the restoration of people's power and a decisive change of socio-economic course will ensure the revival and prosperity of Russia and its entire multi-ethnic people.[Signed] G. Zyuganov -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1916] Russia: Homeless Kids on New Year's
FEW HOMELESS KIDS SEE COMFORT ON NEW YEAR'S MOSCOW, Dec. 31, 1998 -- (Agence France Presse) At least 17,000 homeless St. Petersburg children will greet New Year's, Russia's most-awaited holiday, in freezing cellars and streets. Only 10 percent of that number have lost their parents, Anatoly Zheleznev, head doctor of the Tsimbalin hospital -- the only one to serve orphans in Russia's second city -- told Itar-Tass news agency. The rest have simply been abandoned. Those 32 children who will meet the new year in the hospital are the lucky ones. Many of them have never received a traditional present for New Year's. Most also do not enjoy the luxury of heat in winter, comfort and clean clothes. Hospital workers teach children to read and write in addition to treating their illnesses and injuries. Around 1 million children are estimated to be homeless in Russia, which has a population of 148 million, according to Interfax news agency, citing figures from a conference on the protection of children. Among factors contributing to homelessness are divorce resulting in one spouse losing residence privileges, confidence tricksters who cheat people out of their homes and a growing number of underage runaways. Another factor is that the government has been unable to provide housing for needy individuals like those who grew up in state-run orphanages and those recently released from prison. Russia's current economic crisis has only increased the number of abandoned children. As for the orphans in the Tsimbalin hospital, the St. Petersburg city administration and the Petersburg Tradition Fund have provided toys and food for their New Year's presents Some of the luckier patients are even taken for excursions around the Baltic city at the mouth of the Neva river. "The children don't recognize the city. They've only seen fences and basements and not luxurious palaces," for which the city is famous, Zheleznev said to Itar-Tass. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1914] Russia: Weir on Orphanages
hat Ms. Ternovskaya believes should be
widely adopted.
``We pay professional foster parents, often unemployed
women, to do what we cannot: give the children some sort of
normal family life,'' she says.
``It doesn't cost more, but it seems to work much
better.''
--
Gregory Schwartz
Department of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada
tel: (416) 736-5265
fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1841] Russian Stalinists Commemorate Dictator's Birthday
Stalinists Commemorate Dictator's Birthday MOSCOW, Dec. 22, 1998 -- (Reuters) Several hundred Russian Communists marched to Red Square on Monday to lay carnations at the Kremlin wall tomb of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin on the 119th anniversary of his birth. The solemn scene, amid a light drizzle, underscored the extent to which the question of Stalin's legacy still divides Russians seven years after the fall of the Soviet Union. Most Russians have come to regard Stalin as he is regarded in the West -- a capricious tyrant who murdered millions during nearly three decades of repressive rule. Some years after his death in 1953, the Soviet Communist party took down nearly all of Stalin's statues and moved his embalmed body from the ostentatious mausoleum in the center of Red Square -- where it lay next to that of Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin -- to a more prosaic grave nearby. But many, especially some elderly people, still recall with fondness the days when Russia was a superpower, and credit Stalin for leading the country to victory in World War II. Although open signs of reverence toward Stalin remain rare, even among the Communists who make up the largest party in parliament, a few Stalinists gather at the anniversaries of his birth and death each year. Despite an exhortation from the man next to her not to "give an interview to the Zionists," Tatyana Kryzhanovskya told reporters that she remembered her childhood under Stalin with pride. Clutching a portrait of the dictator, she described the celebrations his birthday once drew. "In 1940, we gathered with our teachers in Moscow. They put red Young Pioneer ribbons around our necks with metal clasps. And now, our teachers walk by and do not say that this is our beloved father," she said. "During the war I lost my mother and father. We worked alongside the adults and defended our motherland, believing in our own Stalin." Mikhail Ivanov, who said he was a child during the 900-day siege of Leningrad, said: "Under Stalin, Russia became a great power that helped other countries fight for their freedom." Russia's NTV television over the weekend reported another sign of how Stalin's image continues to haunt Russians. A bust of the dictator was unveiled in a provincial Ural Mountains Russian school on Saturday, to applause from local Communists and protests from some teachers. NTV said it was the first time a memorial to Stalin had been restored in Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. "It was because of his command that the Soviet Union achieved victory in World War II," one schoolgirl told NTV. But liberals held a demonstration outside the school. "Those who are for Stalin today are simply trying to blame the present government for all their troubles," one man said. Liberal politicians have warned in recent months that the economic crisis which has engulfed the country since August is fuelling political extremism. They point to a recent spate of anti-Jewish statements by Communist party leaders. During Stalin's reign, Jews were widely persecuted by Soviet officials. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1305] Russia: Weir on Primakov at World Economic Forum
From: Fred Weir in Moscow Date: Sat, 05 Dec 1998 For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT) -- The Russian government will not abandon market economics but intends to make sweeping policy changes to escape the disaster left by years of misguided reforms, Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov said at the weekend. "Unsuccessful reforms have given birth to economy of distrust in Russia," Mr. Primakov told the World Economic Forum, which wrapped up in Moscow Saturday. "The toughest consequence of the crisis and the most serious lesson we must draw does not concern the fall in production or decline in the rouble exchange rate, but a total credibility gap, a crisis of confidence," he said. In a biting assessment of the country's worst post-Soviet crisis, Mr. Primakov told the assembly of 200 global corporate and banking leaders that Russia's economic potential has been drained by massive capital flight, its banking system is in ruins, the government is almost incapable of effective action and the people are running out of patience. Mr. Primakov put the blame on his predecessors, who built a huge pyramid of government debt, encouraged the growth of a parasitical banking sector and fumbled the task of revitalizing Russian industry. In August the entire house of cards came tumbling down, after the government was forced to default on its domestic debts and stop defending the national currency. The rouble plummeted to about a third of its pre-crisis value, and in recent days has been sliding dramatically again. Foreign investment has fled Russia, and even the International Monetary Fund suspended payments on a $22-billion bailout package after the August crisis broke. The IMF's chief, Michel Camdessus, concluded talks in Moscow last week with no indication of when, or whether, aid might be resumed. "There is no and there will be no isolation of Russia from international financial organisations," Mr. Primakov said. "We are interested in close ties with them. But the real market strategy in future must be Russian, based mostly on Russian resources." In the absence of foreign investment and credit, Russia's options are cruelly limited. The country must drastically slash its reliance on imported goods and find ways to protect and promote domestic manufacturing, he said. One idea is to declare an amnesty on Russian capital that fled abroad during the post-Soviet era -- which Mr. Primakov put at $15-billion per year -- in order to draw it back into the domestic economy. "This is a paradoxical situation where Russia, which does not have means for development of its own economy, finances development of other countries," he said. Another proposal would be to allow foreign banks to open retail branches in Russia, which is currently against the law. Russians have an estimated $40-billion kept in their mattresses, thanks to their extreme lack of faith in national banks. That skepticism proved justified, Mr. Primakov said, when most domestic banks failed in August, vapourizing the savings of millions of depositors. "The Russian banking system proved weak and artificial, able only to feed on the state budget," he said. Russian citizens, whose living standards collapsed with the rouble, urgently need to be given fresh hope, Mr. Primakov said. "Mistrust of reforms has spread far enough," he said. "The only way is to consolidate social accord." Mr. Primakov's warning was echoed at the weekend by another top Kremlin official, presidential aide Oleg Sysuyev, who urged Western countries to step in with major new loans to Moscow or risk social collapse this winter. "We must think of new credits to fulfill our government's major obligation, that of covering its social expenses, to bar a social explosion," Mr. Sysuyev said.
[PEN-L:1191] Russia: Yeltsin's illness spells disaster
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 From: Fred Weir in Moscow MOSCOW (HT Nov 23) -- In what has become a familiar occurrence of late, Russian President Boris Yeltsin was rushed to the hospital Monday. His spokesman said he is suffering from pneumonia. The Kremlin was quick to downplay this latest in a string of health problems for the 67-year old leader. Mr. Yeltsin's spokesman said the President was not too ill to fulfill his duties, and that he met in the hospital Monday afternoon with visiting Chinese President Jiang Zemin. But analysts say the depressing downward spiral of Mr. Yeltsin's health is taking a toll on Russia's fragile political stability. In recent months the ailing President has appeared rarely in public, and even on those occasions has seemed stilted, feeble and disoriented. "The president is no longer the president. It is clear he can no longer fulfill his functions," says Viktor Kremeniuk, an analyst at the Institute of Canada-USA Studies in Moscow. "This is yet another demonstration of how central the president is in Russia's Constitutional system," he says. "Without Yeltsin on the job, nothing gets done. So his illness is worsening our social and political crisis -- as he goes, so goes the country." Mr. Yeltsin had open-heart surgery two years ago, and has since been regularly sidelined by what his aides call minor illnesses. But Russia's political and economic crisis is growing critical. Without a strong President at the helm, the country appears to be drifting into a harsh and turbulent winter. The government of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has restored a semblance of stability following a near meltdown of the economy in August, but has not enacted any comprehensive program to extract Russia from its crisis. The apparently political murder of a leading liberal lawmaker, Galina Staravoitova, at the weekend has greatly heightened tensions and left many Russians convinced the country is headed for catastrophe and the return of dictatorship. "Extremists are already banging on the gates of power," says Mr. Kremeniuk. "Primakov has very little time to do something, and the chances of escaping collapse are getting worse every day." -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686
[PEN-L:1189] Russia: IMF Leaves without Offering New Deal
--4E12C7D109CECBB307F2D21F Tue., Nov. 24, 1998 at: NY 6:55 a.m. / Lon 11:55 a.m. / Pra 12:55 p.m. Mos 2:55 p.m. || IMF Leaves Russia without Offering New Deal MOSCOW, Nov. 24, 1998 -- (Agence France Presse) A top International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission left Moscow on Tuesday having refused to extend a fresh financial lifeline to the Russian government which is desperately short of funds. Russian Cabinet ministers pressed the IMF team to reschedule repayment of nearly $5 billion in old loans that come due next year. Moscow also hopes that the fund will make at least part payment of new loans that would help plug holes in next year's budget. But in an interview published on Tuesday, Russia's chief IMF negotiator gave a gloomy synopsis of the talks, revealing that the two sides had been unable to agree on either front. "They are delaying talks about the concrete size of a future loan and our repayment schedule of earlier loans until a later day," Deputy Finance Minister Oleg Vyugin said in an interview with Moscow's Vremya daily. "I am convinced that next year we will not receive as large a loan as is currently being written into the budget," Vyugin said. "It is clear from the official memorandum on the talk's results that the IMF envisions a tighter budget than we do." Vyugin said fund officials thought that Russia had overestimated next year's revenues by about 40 billion rubles ($2.4 billion). The government, despite promising a new economic course to arrest Russia's breathtaking financial decline, is expected to follow IMF prescriptions in drawing up its critical 1999 budget in order to maintain a glimmer of hope for further financing. "We need to clearly make sure that our budget will first guarantee the minimal social guarantees so that the country can remain stable. Then we need to finance the army," Vyugin said. "Everything else must be financed only as far as revenues allow," he added. Fund officials have not yet scheduled a return date to Moscow, although Russian officials predict future negotiations may be held in Russia next month. ( (c) 1998 Agence France Presse) -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686 mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --4E12C7D109CECBB307F2D21F Tue., Nov. 24, 1998 at: NY 6:55 a.m. / Lon 11:55 a.m. / Pra 12:55 p.m. Mos 2:55 p.m. || IMF Leaves Russia without Offering New Deal MOSCOW, Nov. 24, 1998 -- (Agence France Presse) A top International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission left Moscow on Tuesday having refused to extend a fresh financial lifeline to the Russian government which is desperately short of funds. Russian Cabinet ministers pressed the IMF team to reschedule repayment of nearly $5 billion in old loans that come due next year. Moscow also hopes that the fund will make at least part payment of new loans that would help plug holes in next year's budget. But in an interview published on Tuesday, Russia's chief IMF negotiator gave a gloomy synopsis of the talks, revealing that the two sides had been unable to agree on either front. "They are delaying talks about the concrete size of a future loan and our repayment schedule of earlier loans until a later day," Deputy Finance Minister Oleg Vyugin said in an interview with Moscow's Vremya daily. "I am convinced that next year we will not receive as large a loan as is currently being written into the budget," Vyugin said. "It is clear from the official memorandum on the talk's results that the IMF envisions a tighter budget than we do." Vyugin said fund officials thought that Russia had overestimated next year's revenues by about 40 billion rubles ($2.4 billion). The government, despite promising a new economic course to arrest Russia's breathtaking financial decline, is expected to follow IMF prescriptions in drawing up its critical 1999 budget in order to maintain a glimmer of hope for further financing. "We need to clearly make sure that our budget will first guarantee the minimal social guarantees so that the country can remain stable. Then we need to finance the army," Vyugin said. "Everything else must be financed only as far as revenues allow," he added. Fund officials have not yet scheduled a return date to Moscow, although Russian officials predict future negotiations may be held in Russia next month. ( (c) 1998 Agence France Presse) -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686 mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci">http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --4E12C7D109CECBB307F2D21F--
[PEN-L:975] Fred Weir: Russian Communists, Anti-Semites?
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 1998 For the Hindustan Times From: Fred Weir in Moscow MOSCOW (HT Nov 10) -- Several Russian politicians have called for banning the Communist Party -- the country's largest political formation -- after it failed to publicly condemn one of its members for anti-Semitic remarks. "The Communists should be banned as the carrier of an idea that could break Russia apart," financier Boris Berezovsky told a TV interviewer at the weekend. Mr. Berezovsky is a former deputy chairman of the Kremlin Security Council and current secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States. "They are turning into nationalists and for the first time they have declared this absolutely openly. . . The Communists have placed themselves outside the laws of the civilized world and outside the laws of Russia," he said. Mr. Berezovsky's demands were echoed by a number of leading politicians. Former Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar accused the Communists of turning into Nazis and said "if Russia wants to remain a democratic country it should ban the Communist Party." The controversy erupted last week when the vast majority of Communist parliamentarians refused to support a resolution of criticism against General Albert Makashov, a Communist deputy who referred to Jews in public speeches using an ethnic slur, blamed them for causing Russia's economic crisis and suggested they should be rounded up and jailed. The motion of censure in the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, was sponsored by film-maker Stanislav Govorukhin, a left-wing parliamentarian who warned that Gen. Makashov's inflamed rhetoric was a threat to Russian national unity and a disgrace to the Communist Party. But the measure failed when only a handful of Communists, who hold nearly half the Duma's seats, voted for it. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said the resolution was unnecessary because Gen. Makashov had already been reprimanded inside the Party. "We have a pluralism of opinions, and people can say what they want," says Yuri Ivanov, a Communist Duma deputy. "Makashov has been criticized by his comrades, and that's enough." But at a Moscow rally marking the 81st anniversary of the Bolshevik Revolution last Saturday, Gen. Makashov repeated his attacks on the Jews, and Communist Party leaders also present made no move to curb him. "The Communists have a serious internal problem," says Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow. "Zyuganov does not want a split, and so he's had to make allowances for Makashov". Mr. Zyuganov slammed Mr. Berezovsky's call to ban the Communist Party as "an expression of utter extremism" and warned that all such appeals are contrary to Russia's Constitutional law. The Communist Party was banned after the collapse of the USSR in 1991, but revived when Russia's Constitutional Court upheld its legality. But it has never declared a clear post- Soviet ideology, and Mr. Zyuganov tends to appear in the guise of nationalist, social democrat or Stalinist depending on his audience of the moment. It remains Russia's largest political party, and Mr. Zyuganov routinely leads the pack of possible presidential candidates in opinion polls. But the same polls show the Communists not only the most popular, but also the most unpopular party in the country -- a paradox that led to Mr. Zyuganov's defeat in 1996 presidential elections and would likely do so again. "This controversy reveals the basic problem the Communists have," says Mr. Petrov. "The Party's internal disunity and lack of ideological cohesion makes it impossible for Zyuganov to create an electable image for himself. The Party's enemies find it easy to exploit situations like this controversy over Makashov." -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686 mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:696] Kagarlitsky on Russia
IMF inevitably arouse a certain malicious joy among Russians. But the situation will not make things easier for us. To escape from the present dead end, we have to recognise our position in the modern world, our possibilities and our global responsibility. We have to learn to take decisions even painful ones independently. Democratic socialists have put forward a political project which includes not only nationalisation of the gas, oil and electricity companies, the metal industry, the largest banks and producers of vodka, but also the development of a new public sector decentralised, owned and controlled by provincial bodies and local communities. Indeed, this public sector has already started to be formed spontaneously by local governments renationalising failing private companies. Thus we may end up with a new model of decentralised planning co-ordinated through interregional networks, oriented not towards the orders of the central bodies but to the needs of communities The Communist Party (CPRF), in contrast, is reticent about making concrete proposals. The 'old left' not only lacks a vision for the future but also lacks the courage to fight for measures which come from their own tradition. Most hopeful are the groups which have transitional positions between the 'old' and 'new' left. Most important of them is The Youth Communist League (Russian Komsomol) which has broken with the CP leadership, and has one deputy in the state Duma. The Komsomol's central committee recently passed a resolution criticising the opportunistic policies of the 'old' party and asking its members to be prepared to go underground in case of repression. On 4 September Viktor Chernomyrdin presented his plan to the Duma. It included a promise to print more rubles to pay wage and pension arrears, possible renationalisation of failing companies, a flat 20 per cent income tax (most workers currently pay 12 per cent). He also promised to let the ruble float, giving up all efforts to control its rate against the dollar. After some time, according to Chernomyrdin, the ruble will be pegged to the rate it has reached as well as to the Central Bank's gold and currency reserves possibly by surrendering control of the money supply to a board of outside experts, 'as in Argentina'. Former Argentinian finance minister, Domingo Cavallo, was parachuted to Moscow where, after two days of talks with executives who had already destroyed their country's economy, he presented a salvation plan that was adopted by Chernomyrdin. Even commentators sympathetic to the government saw the inconsistency of this plan. TV opinion polls showed that no more then 7 per cent of the population had confidence in the prime minister. The president's popularity was even lower. A popular TV show asked viewers: 'What would you like to change?' The most popular answer was 'the president'. The second was 'If the president is going to stay, I want to move to another country.' On 7 September Chernomyrdin tried to present his plan to the Duma but he looked weak and tired. Before the vote there were rumors about deputies being offered bribes to vote for the government but not many deputies accepted the offer and even fewer carried out the promise because it was decided that the vote should be open and its results published. That ended up as a smashing defeat for the prime minister and a blow for Yeltsin. The deputies knew, though, that their voters would never excuse them for compromising with the hated regime. The only thing we need from the West now is for it to leave us in peace: to stop imposing ruinous economic policies on us under the pretext of aid; and to cease prolonging the death agony of the Yeltsin regime. The money that has been spent on supporting Yeltsin could have been used to create jobs in Europe and America, to help the poorest countries and to solve environmental problems. But international bankers don't give money for these purposes. Even neoliberal economists in Russia now accept that after the virtual bankruptcy of the Russian bourgeoisie, massive nationalisations are inevitable and that there is no way out of the financial mess without printing money. Communists are in strategic economic ministries. Yeltsin's alliance between the oligarchs and international capital is ending. Primakov's appointment means that for the first time there is a possibility that economic policy will be concerned with the welfare of the Russian people and stimulating the domestic economy. But radical ideas are needed to form a new model of the public sector dynamic, decentralised and democratic. Claims which might be presented to the IMF following the devaluation of the ruble are nothing compared to the accounts which Russia's own population will set before the authorities and the oligarchic elite. The people at the top are demoralised, and thos
[PEN-L:685] How to spot a new-centre socialist
nspan reputation -- that of being a hard-nosed central banker who has not hesitated to raise rates to pre-empt inflation and so has great credibility in financial markets -- he ignores. The combination, then, of a lax Mr. Lafontaine and a French Government that is already calling for lower interest rates to combat global recession represents an attitudinal change that could be decisive. Socialism's gift to the bourgeois and working class may, as a result, be a fiscal and monetary policy that is looser than at any time in the past 25 years (a period during which power in Bonn and Frankfurt has been held by anti-inflation hawks). What is a new-centre socialist who is not Blairite? One who is likely to take many more risks with inflation and recession. Peter Cook can be reached by E-mail at [EMAIL PROTECTED] ¿ THE GLOBE AND MAIL - 1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada tel: (416) 736-5265 fax: (416) 736-5686 mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:637] Warning! Anti-Communist!
this is what we contend with here -- Forwarded message -- Date: Mon, 19 Oct 1998 13:15:50 -0400 (EDT) From: Jennifer Jensen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Grad students <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: ltr to (fwd) This is an letter to Chancellor Hooker of UNC written by the mother of a polisci undergrad. It was posted to the UNC poli sci grad students' list. If you aren't interested delete. It's a long rant against feminism and communism, and everything else that we do here. Forwarded originally by Jennifer Jensen Department of Political Science University of North Carolina > -- Forwarded message -- > Date: Fri, 09 Oct 1998 14:22:33 PDT > From: Gloria Poole <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: ltr to Chancellor Hooker > > Dear Sir: I am writing because I have many concerns about the nature of > the education at UNC. My daughter is a sophomore here, and I have > recently visited her. I hear from her ideas that I find unacceptable. It > seems they will be reading Karl Marx's works in her Political Science > Class soon. I am adamantly against the teaching of communism, not only > at UNC, but anywhere in the U.S. If you have also studied Marx, then you > know that he is anti-God and anti-freedom. His basic premises that > government is god, and that government has the right to reallocate all > resources as they see fit, are directly opposed to the principles of > freedom that the United States was founded upon. If you understand the > principle of seed time and harvest, then you understand that when > students read something, anything, it plants seeds in their minds, that > later spring forth into action. I do not want my daughter, or anybody > else's taught anti-God, anti-freedom, communist principles. The Bible > says it is better not to even speak of the evil that occurs in dark > places. Communism is evil. Lest you forget, it has been responsible for > the deaths of millions of people--about 60 million in Russia, and > probably that many more in Cambodia, Afghanistan, Germany. The > principles of totalitarian government, whether it is called socialism, > fascism, communism, are against liberty. The Bible says, "now the Lord > is the Spirit and where the Spirit of the Lord is, there is liberty." If > you don't know the principles of communism, then I will sum them up for > you: government owns all assets, controls all assets, controls > education, brainwashes the population, eliminates God who is the source > of liberty, and uses strong arm tactics when the people do not willingly > comply, which explains the death of the millions. Does this sound like > an improvement over the freedoms we are supposed to have in this > country? I ask you to stop the teaching of communism, socialism, and > anti-God doctrine at the University immediately. If you continue, then > you can be proud of the university's role in the destruction of America, > because you cannot both teach oppression and liberty simultaneously > without catastrophe. The Bible says a house divided against itself will > not stand. (Matthew) If you don't want your assets seized by the feds, > and your family waked up in the night and "escorted" to "protective > places" then don't teach communism. You reap what you sow, the Bible > says. > Also, I have another concern, some of the feminist doctrine is being > taught in the political science classes apparently disguised as > political science. Though I am a woman, I am not a feminist. The word > itself is offensive because it separates women into two groups, the > women who think that only women are competent, and the ones who know > that God set up men to be the heads of households, and the leaders of > the nation. I have diligently studied my Bible and I know that God put > Adam in charge when he made him, and said that Eve was the "helpmeet" to > Adam, not the other way around. I did not think it was so, but I ended > up divorced. I am old enough to know that men are designed by God to be > aggressive, not namby-pamby, "sensitive", half-men,half-nothing types. > They cannot be other than what God made them to be, nor can women. The > idea that women are to be worshipped as gods is as old as the first > story in the Bible, where Eve deliberately and willfully disobeyed God, > and then enticed Adam to do the same. But go back and re-read the story > and you will see that God punished Adam more than He punished Eve. Eves' > punishment was only in childbirth,but Adam's was daily. I do not want my > daughter taught the worship of women as truth, or as "politically > correct" or as "political science". Women have clearly defined roles, > and their power and influence over men is not insignificant in any way. > Women have always had the power to destroy men, when the women are > wicked. If you doubt that, then pay close attention to the impeachment > hearings that are about to begin. Wicked women do not deserve to be
[PEN-L:607] Russia: Poverty, Contraction, IMF
Here is the latest (horrifying) news from Russia. Greg. RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 2, No. 203, Part I, 20 October 1998 MORE RUSSIANS FALLING INTO POVERTY... More Russians slipped into poverty in September compared with August, Interfax reported on 19 October. Last month, the amount of the population living in poverty reached more than one-third. Real incomes plunged 12.4 percent during the first nine months of the year, compared with the same period in 1997, while consumer prices swelled 38.4 percent in September alone--the biggest monthly rise in three years. Nationwide, the number of unemployed increased by 0.5 percent, while the rate of unemployment as of 1 October was estimated at 11.5 percent. "Segodnya" reported on 17 October that the number of jobless in Moscow rose 10 percent from mid-September to mid-October. JAC AS ECONOMIC CONTRACTION ACCELERATES. Russian gross domestic product shrank 9.9 percent in September, following an 8.2 percent drop in August, Interfax reported on 19 October. The State Statistics Committee called it the largest economic drop since 1994. Industrial output dropped 14.5 percent in September; automobile production was particularly hard hit, sustaining a 35 percent decline. Among the nation's export industries, fuel dropped 4.6 percent, iron, steel, and non-ferrous metals fell 16 percent, and logging, timber, pulp, and paper industries 6.4 percent. First Deputy Prime Minister Yurii Maslyukov told a conference of defense industry executives that the nation's natural monopolies could be used to pull the Russian economy out of its crisis. According to Interfax, he added that "the lending potential of the Central Bank should be better used for export industries and for the construction of houses and roads." JAC IMF OFFERS FOOD, NOT CASH. The IMF mission arrived in Moscow on 20 October--one day after IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus declared that his agency is unlikely to provide any new money soon, calling on the West to provide Russia with humanitarian assistance to avert hunger. "Kommersant-Daily" dubbed the offer of humanitarian assistance "Camdessus's legs," a reference to "Bush's legs," or the U.S. poultry imports, especially chicken legs, that flooded the Russian market as food aid during President George Bush's administration. The newspaper noted that the IMF is waiting for the government to present its economic plan, but "all last week Maslyukov and other government officials said that the emergency budget for the fourth quarter was not yet ready." The newspaper also reported that Karelia and other raions in Leningrad Oblast have already received humanitarian assistance from Scandinavian countries. JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:425] Russia: Nation-Wide General Strike
THOUSANDS TURN OUT FOR NATIONWIDE PROTEST. According to Interfax, initial reports from the Interior Ministry suggest that more than 60,000 people turned out for public protests in the Far East on 7 October--a much smaller turnout than organizers had expected. In Vladivostok only 3,000, rather than the expected 5,000 citizens, participated, AP reported. ITAR-TASS estimated that turnout in Novosibirsk was some 35,000 people. Nakhodka witnessed one of its largest protest meetings the previous day when about 3,000 gathered in the city's main square. An RFE/RL correspondent in Novosibirsk noted that the centerpiece of protesters demands was the payment of back wages but that they also called for the resignation of President Boris Yeltsin. An RFE/RL correspondent in Irkutsk reported that cold weather thinned the ranks of protesters in that Siberian city, with mostly pensioners and Communist Party activists showing up. JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:382] Russia: Protests
Russians protest as government plan still unclear By Dimitry Antonov MOSCOW, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Around six thousand Russians marched through the streets of the capital on Sunday to mark the 1993 crushing of a coup attempt by the Soviet-era parliament and prepare for a day of nation-wide strikes next week. The protests, mostly by people from Russia's left-wing, were held as the government of new Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov faced the tough task of coming up with a clear plan to end the ex-Soviet giant's deep economic crisis. Russian officials in Washington acknowledged after talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that negotiations on further credits would have to start from scratch given the serious turn for the worse the economy had taken. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, leading the march to the White House government building, urged the protestors to take part in a nationwide day of action next Wednesday. The October 7 protests are against the slide in living standards and the economic and political crisis. They are also aimed at pressuring President Boris Yeltsin to quit. ``I call for you and your relatives to go on October 7 and support these demands (the resignation of Yeltsin and the creation of a coalition government),'' Zyuganov said. A Moscow police spokesman said that around six thousand people had joined the Sunday march. ``I have spoken with the governors of 45 regions and they told me their regions will take part,'' Zyuganov added. ``We don't trust the Yeltsin regime and we hate it,'' said one middle-aged woman who held a big banner with the words ``Long live the Soviet Constitution'' emblazoned across it. The Sunday demonstration was the second of the weekend to mark the 1993 putsch attempt and its violent quelling by Yeltsin. Several hundred people joined a protest on Saturday. Dozens of people were killed when Yeltsin sent in tanks on October 3, 1993, against hardline opponents who had defied his decision to dissolve the Soviet- era parliament by occupying the White House parliament building. Every year since then anti-Yeltsin forces have staged marches and rallies on this date but now their protests carry added resonance as Russia grapples with soaring prices, job losses and a sliding rouble. Primakov is the latest to take on the task of ending Russia's crisis but has still to come up with a clear plan some three weeks after taking office. He must find a definite set of measures to stabilise the rouble, which has plunged 60 percent since mid-August, pay back billions of dollars of debt and salaries and find ways to ensure the proper funding of the budget. Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov, one of the few remaining liberals in Primakov's cabinet, said in Washington after talks with the IMF that any further credits will depend on the economic plans that the new government comes up with. ``It is us who will make the decisions. The position of the international (institutions) will depend on what budget and tax laws are adopted by the parliament,'' Zadornov told reporters after meeting ministers and central bank chiefs of the wealthy Group of Seven industrialised countries. Zadornov also scaled down the estimate for external financing for the fourth quarter, saying a budget would be presented with a figure of just $2.5 billion. This compares with $4.3 billion that Russia had been hoping to receive in a second tranche of expected IMF credits. ``We have a totally different situation now so we basically have to start talks with the IMF from scratch,'' said one Russian senior official in Washington who declined to be named. Primakov has tried to allay fears that he was planning to reintroduce Soviet- style economic management. He reassured a group of top foreign investors on Saturday that the dollar would be allowed freely to circulate and that privatisation would not be reversed. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:298] Russia: Stranger Things Have Happened
It seems the paternalistic Federation of Independent Trade Unions (FNPR) and its silent partner (the Communist Party) have made a deal that, as a result of pressure from the rank and file against the dominance of the Communists the FNPR will nominally lead the 7 October Day of Action. No promises here, folks. The FNPR leadership is as careerist and as cynical as the Communists. In other news, the proto-Fascist mayor of Moscow (who, before the 850th anniversary of the city last summer had all the homeless and other 'unsightly' elements, including some refugees from the Caucasus and dogs *removed* (this meant that the homeless were driven out 200(?) km away from the city, the Caucasians were sent to their now non-existent homes/villages/towns while dogs were simply shot)) promises to run for the position of President in 2000 on a Labour platform. I hope "Stranger Things Have Happened". Greg. ** COMMUNISTS, TRADE UNIONS FORM ALLIANCE? "Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported on 29 September that top Communist Party officials finally agreed to cede leadership of the national day of protest on 7 October to the Federation of Independent Trade Unions. The Communists also agreed to follow the union's wishes on a number of other issues, including support for a law raising the official minimum wage. The newspaper concluded that only time will tell whether Russia has witnessed the formation of a "mighty new opposition alliance." "Nezavisimaya gazeta" receives financial backing from Boris Berezovskii's LogoVAZ group. On 30 September, Communist Party activists, members of some trade unions, as well as scientists and teachers are planning to hold a protest action and block several major highways to Moscow for one hour beginning at mid-day, local time. The protesters are demanding the resignation of President Boris Yeltsin. LUZHKOV TO RUN AS NEW LABOUR CANDIDATE? In an interview with Reuters on 29 September, Moscow Mayor Luzhkov hinted that he might run for president in Russia's elections in 2000. He said, "If I see that the only [candidates] with a change of getting elected are those who are not capable of leading the country sensibly and correctly, then I will enter the race." Currently on a trip to England, Luzhkov also said that he found the philosophy of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's New Labour party appealing. He said, "It's organizing the economy on market principles--it's capitalism but with a very serious system of social support for the people. The Moscow city government is following these principles, perhaps in a rather primitive way. Our slogan is: working like capitalists, sharing like socialists." The following day, ITAR-TASS cited members of Luzkhov's delegation in England as saying that media reports that Luzhkov will run for president are "premature." -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:288] Russia: Peppered Vodka - New(?) Cure
First they (the Western pharmaceutical companies) poison people world-wide with their drugs, producing acute dependence, obliterating generations of accumulated knowledge concerning natural medicines, all under the rubric of promoting 'advanced' health care (as though headaches or colds required surgery), not to mention that despicable appeal to our empathy through (insulting) cultural platitudes in the form of "World Children's Fund", etc.. Then, when you've run out of money, all of a sudden it's 'the bottom line'; no more talk of the benevolence and the virtuous metropolitanism of 'Western civilization'. Thankfully for the Russian workers, they have not been under the 'aegis' of the West for too long and have retained some traditional medicinal practices. Cheers, Greg ** Peppered Vodka -- One Way to Replace Vanishing Western Drugs MOSCOW -- (Agence France Presse) Russians will soon be forced to return to the home cures of their grandmothers to replace the foreign drugs which have become well nigh impossible to find since the devaluation of the ruble in mid-August. "Do you still have Upsa aspirin?. ... And no Coldrex either?" The pharmacies of Moscow have been under siege since the first weeks of the crisis and stocks have run out. Sales have increased by up to 500 percent, such as in Nizhny Novgorod on the banks of the Volga, the daily newspaper Kommersant reported. Analgesics, anti-inflammatory and anti-viral medicines were the first to go. "If you have caught a cold, put mustard powder in woolen socks at night and it will go away," a Muscovite woman advised another as they stood in front of a shop window displaying only a few bottles of Russian and foreign medicines. "Even better, drink a glass of vodka with pepper and honey, like people used to do. Personally, I drink it hot and say goodbye to a cold," a pensioner advised. The media has also produced time-honored recipes for grandmothers' herbal teas which can help cure illness. Diabetics have exhausted the stocks of insulin in the Altai region in western Siberia, and the pharmacists of Volgograd are already sounding the alarm bells: their stocks will run out in a week. Many hospitals that are short of drugs, including the prestigious Central Kremlin Hospital in Moscow, are asking their patients to bring their own remedies with them. The hospital in Stavropol in the northern Caucasus announced the suspension of all surgery because of a shortage of drugs, the Izvestiya daily newspaper revealed last week. The central hospital of the Kurgan region in Siberia only has 15 percent of the drugs it requested. "The patients of regional hospitals have flooded us with complaints of this kind," said Health Ministry spokesman Vladimir Vyunitsky. "We cannot do anything about it because it is the regional authorities who distribute the grants which we send out. The hospitals are not obliged to inform us of their reserves. Sometimes they resell them on the black market," he added. Russians, especially the seriously ill, had grown used to an abundance of Western drugs, previously reserved to the Communist elite, and can no longer imagine life without them. But the collapse of the ruble, which has dropped in value by about 60 percent since August, has ruined half of the estimated 3,500 distributing companies, with the rest forced to suspend their purchases abroad. The 20 main Russian distributors have survived, but have increased the prices of foreign drugs by as much as 200 percent and Russian products by up to 100 percent. Experts are already predicting that the foreign drug market -- more than 70 percent of the total market -- will be reduced five or six times as a result of the financial crisis, said Vyunitsky. As for the small number of home-produced products, they are often made with imported raw materials and they are also likely to become more scarce, according to the weekly Diengui (Money) magazine. "It takes three or four months to launch the production line of a new drug. The pharmacies will be totally empty well before that. And you need credits to buy raw materials and machinery. But Russian banks are paralyzed and Western banks refuse to give credits to Russian debtors," said Mikhail Groshenkov, the director of Russian pharmaceutical company Farmatsentr. To limit buying, the Ministry of Health is already preparing to stop 16 million low-income Russians from obtaining the reduced prices which they enjoy for pharmaceutical products. These people -- including pensioners, the disabled and war veterans -- have until now made up the 20 million people, or 14 percent of the population, who consumed between 70 and 80 percent of the drugs sold in Russia, according to Kommersant. ( (c) 1998 Agence France Presse) -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:187] Russia: Unemployment rising/Communists desperate for votes
RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 2, No. 184, Part I, 23 September 1998 RUSSIAN UNEMPLOYMENT INCREASING. Russia's financial crisis is already impacting on the labor market, according to "Kommersant-Daily" on 22 September. The newspaper predicts that between 500,000 and 1 million people across the country will lose their jobs. The number of people applying to Moscow employment services has grown by 30 percent, compared with September 1997. The demand for specialists in Moscow has fallen by 30-40 percent, and some 30,000 vacancies have been cut. Most job openings in Moscow are for manual labor or junior medical personnel, and 40 percent of those jobs pay no more than 900 rubles. The newspaper predicts that over the next few months, the number of registered unemployed in Moscow may rise to 55,000, while the total number of unemployed could be two or three times higher. LF COMMUNISTS OUT OF TOUCH WITH WORKERS. According to a resolution passed by the Communist Party's recent Central Committee Plenum and published in "Sovetskaya Rossiya" on 22 September, labor protests are growing but the Communist Party does not have firm control over the movement. The resolution cites a '"fivefold increase" in the number of striking enterprises since the beginning of 1998 but notes that many Communist Party raion and city organizations have "little influence" on local labor collectives. Also included in the resolution is the Central Committee decree that the council of the Communist Party's Duma faction should set up public tribunals throughout the Russian Federation "to bring charges against Boris Yeltsin for the acts he has committed against the people." JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:147] Russia: Economy Is As Bad As It Was
A Political Consensus Has Been Reached, but the Economy Is As Bad As It Was Yevgeny Primakov will become a reliable cover for the unknown vice Premier, who will really manage the economy Nezavisimaya Gazeta 09/11/98 Yevgeny Primakov's nomination as prime minister was a strong political move by President Boris Yeltsin. Primakov is an outstanding diplomat and one of the strongest foreign ministers in the world. His diplomatic achievements are so great that he is sometimes called the "Russian Churchill." However, his economic views are hardly well developed, because he has never been a professional economist, the daily noted. Primakov is a complete contrast to his predecessor, Sergei Kiriyenko, who had economic experience but lacked political weight. Nezavisimaya wrote that Primakov's great intuition can help him find the right decisions. Besides, all the "dirty work" will be performed by his first deputy prime minister, or a whole bunch of deputies brought from various political parties. The daily wrote that candidates for the post of first deputy premier including acting deputy prime minister Boris Fyodorov, Communist Yury Maslyukov, Yabloko leader Grigory Yavlinsky and former Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin. They all have very different economic programs, ranging from Yavlinsky's liberal economy to the purely monetarist program of Fyodorov and the command economy program of Maslyukov. The daily concluded that Primakov will have to make his choice, based on political compromise. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:146] Russia: Desperation on the Submarine
Teenage Sailor Kills Eight on Russian Submarine MOSCOW -- (Reuters) A teenage conscript sailor killed eight crew mates aboard a Russian submarine of the Northern Fleet on Friday, the Defense Ministry said. "An emergency occurred on a submarine of the Northern Fleet involving the death of personnel," it said in a statement. The ministry said Alexander Kuzminykh, aged 18 or 19 and drafted in St Petersburg 18 months ago, had seized an assault rifle from a sentry on duty above decks, killed him and then turned his fire on other crew mates, killing seven of them. The ministry said the submarine was not in danger and that there were no nuclear weapons aboard. Kyzminikh had barricaded himself in a compartment of the submarine but had made no demands. The head of the navy, Adm. Vladimir Kuroyedov, had flown to the scene. Spokesmen declined further comment. Interfax news agency, quoting sources at the Northern Fleet's headquarters at Severomorsk near Murmansk and at the admiralty in Moscow, said the vessel was an Akula (Shark) class nuclear-powered attack submarine moored at Skalisty. Kuzminykh had been held in detention and broke free in the early hours of the morning, Interfax said. A spokesman for the Federal Security Service (FSB) told NTV television that a special commando unit trained to operate in nuclear installations was preparing to tackle the killer. The Murmansk region is base for dozens of Soviet-era submarines, many of them nuclear powered, which rarely put to sea for want of fuel and even food. Similar incidents have become commonplace in the Russian armed forces since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of Communist rule deprived them of much state funding. Past shootings, too frequent to count, have been provoked by conscripts' anger at poor conditions or at endemic bullying by other servicemen. In April, a conscript killed three members of his unit at a border post in the remote Far East. In January, a private slaughtered seven from his unit on the Pacific island of Sakhalin. In December, a drunken soldier opened fire with a machine-gun at a barracks in southern Russia, killing three servicemen and wounding five. Last November, a border guard private massacred five comrades at an isolated post on the Chinese frontier. Last month, a group of soldiers and civilians led police and troops a bloody four-day chase across a remote Arctic peninsula after shooting their way out of jail. And just last Saturday, the Northern Fleet suffered another incident of mutiny when five sailors from the ethnic region of Dagestan killed a fellow guard at a nuclear installation on the Arctic Island of Novaya Zemlya and took 48 hostages, including dozens of schoolchildren. They were later overpowered. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:145] Russia: Weir - More on Capital flight
From: Fred Weir Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 Subject: Capital Flight By Fred Weir MOSCOW (CP) -- Capital has hemorrhaged out of post-Soviet Russia on a scale unseen anywhere else in the world, leaving the country without needed resources to rebuild its economy, a joint Canadian-Russian report says. The 18-month study, sponsored by Russia's official Institute of Economics and the University of Western Ontario's Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations, concluded that as much as $140-billion (US) -- almost $2-billion per month -- fled Russia during the first six years of market reforms. ``There has been a very large net outflow of capital from Russia, and this certainly has aggravated the present crisis,'' says John Whalley, one of the report's main authors. ``It means Russia has lost crucial development capital, money that could otherwise have been invested in Russia and used to generate economic growth.'' Five Canadian and five Russian economists worked on the study, which is the first to put a reliable figure on the headlong flight of wealth out of Russia after the onset of market reforms in 1992. The amount of money escaping Russia was greater than the combined capital flight from Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico and Peru during the turbulent 1980's, the study said. ``While capital movements are very common the world over, Russia has experienced an abnormal, even cataclysmic, loss of vital resources,'' said Leonid Abalkin, head of the Russian team. ``Now Russia's economy is like a locomotive headed downhill.'' The report was completed before Russia's current financial collapse, but at a public presentation Thursday the authors said many of the warning signs of incipient crisis were detailed in it. Russia's economy has imploded in recent months. The Moscow stock exchange has lost 80 per cent of its value since January, the buying power of the rouble has halved in barely a month, and most private banks are teetering on the brink of insolvency. Although Thursday's appointment of the popular foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov, as acting prime minister may take the steam out of a tense political standoff between President Boris Yeltsin and the opposition-led parliament, Russia still faces rising social unrest and a growing wave of labour protests. ``We have emphasized that the numbers for capital flight are so large, this issue is clearly central to Russia's political disaster,'' said Whalley. Political instability, a lack of legal property rights, haphazard privatization of state-owned assets and widespread official corruption are underlying reasons that Russia's new rich have exported their wealth in such prodigous amounts, the report says. When the study began last year the Russian economists favoured cracking down on capital flight while the Canadians argued it was just a symptom that could only be cured by tackling the basic causes. But on Thursday their positions appeared slightly reversed. ``I have gone from a supporter of strong capital controls to a believer in the senselessness of trying to fight the problem head on,'' said Abalkin. ``That would only lead to criminalization of the process.'' Capital flight will only cease when Russia's legal environment and business climate become attractive enough to keep money at home and attract foreign investors, he said. Whalley said all that is true, but the global financial meltdown beginning in Asia last year and now tearing through Russia has given many Western economists pause to rethink a few beliefs. ``A lot of voices are now arguing that some degree of insulation from international markets may be necessary,'' he said. ``The Russians did everything Western agencies told them to do, and when you look at the outcome now, it's pretty catastrophic. You can't just come here and tell people it's the magic of the marketplace.'' -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:144] Russia: Weir on Gorbachev, Capital Flight
From: Fred Weir Date: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 17:36:34 (MSK) Subject: Gorbachev on Primakov and Yeltsin Mikhail Gorbachev happened to be at a press conference today, a joint Russian-Canadian academic project on capital flight, and he offered his remarks on Primakov. For the record, here they are, Gorbachev on Primakov and Yeltsin. Question: What do you think about Primakov's appointment? Gorbachev: In the current situation he is the best candidate. Primakov is a moderate person who has no extreme views of either liberal or orthodox variety. He's a man of broad outlook and culture, and he is well-known around the world. The politicians before him promised a lot to people but delivered nothing. Now he's been given the job of saving Russia from the consequences of their adventurism. His predecessors brought Russia to collapse by trying to make the leap to heaven in one jump. Primakov's task is very hard, but he can do it because he has the support of the people. It's not like Yeltsin, who has less than 10 per cent popularity; it's not like Zyuganov, who has 20 per cent of mainly old and orthodox people. Primakov has really wide support. He will fight for the interests of Russia because he is a man of principle. He has been able to solve many of Russia's foreign policy problems and set the Foreign Ministry in order; what he did for the Foreign Ministry, he can do for Russia. Question: What do you think of Yeltsin's position now? Gorbachev: Yeltsin is politically, morally and physically finished. Changes are coming and he should leave. But there are two ways he can go: he can be pushed, or he can draw the necessary conclusions himself and take the appropriate steps. Appointing Primakov was a very good step. The next step would be to schedule emergency elections for a new president. A president has reached the end of his rope when he has less than 10 per cent popular support, as Yeltsin has today. Let the country have a leader who has the support of the people. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:143] Russia and Regulation
Flawed Capitalism Requires Regulation, State Role, Jospin Says Paris, Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Responsible government and effective regulation must play a role in the world economy next century to counterbalance the effects of unbridled capitalism, French Prime Minister Lionel Jospin said. ``Capitalism is its own worst enemy,'' Jospin said in an editorial appearing in French magazine Le Nouvel Observateur tomorrow. ``The crises we have witnessed teach us three things: capitalism remains unstable, the economy is political and the global economy calls for regulation.'' Citing the economic and political problems that have struck Russia, Jospin said modern market-driven economies need ``rules, solid institutions, stability and organization'' from the state. He criticized the way in which emerging economies such as Russia's have been made to undergo a ``forced march'' towards liberalization from centrally-planned systems without a sufficient transition period. Jospin said the Western world must share part of the blame in ``imposing on some countries a model which is quite alien to it.'' The prime minister also urged better cooperation between governments to develop common policies and to find solutions to shared problems. Jospin called on fellow members of the International Monetary Fund to give the body and its 24-member Interim Committee the means to act as a sort of ``political government'' to oversee regulation in world markets. ``The current crisis shows us quite clearly and brutally that the market must have rules, which run big risks if under- estimated,'' he wrote. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:142] RUSSIA'S CRISIS AND THE BIRTH OF A NEW LEFT
hese mechanisms remain in place, and are allowing many commercial operations to continue even though the ruble is scarcely worth picking up off the pavement. Justifiably, most Russians have always considered the post- Soviet ruble suspect as a store of value. As a result, savings are usually kept in the form of dollar notes stuffed in hard-to- guess corners of people's homes. Estimated at US$20 billion - roughly twice the state's official foreign currency reserves - these hoards will survive the crash both of the ruble and of the banks, and are likely to provide a buffer against complete economic paralysis. In coming weeks, more and more dollars can be expected to emerge from beneath the mattresses. Increasingly, the dollar will become the mechanism not just of saving, but also (and although this is illegal) of everyday exchange. Another godsend for Russia's rulers is barter. Said to account for as much as 70 per cent of the value of transactions between enterprises, this is the main reason why production in wide areas of the economy did not come to a total halt long ago. Barter deals have not needed rubles in the past, and do not need them now. A dollarised, barterised Russian economy might keep ticking over for years, at abysmal levels of efficiency. But there are countless functions required by modern industrial society - starting with the regular payment of wages and pensions - that such an economy cannot perform. Even if barter could be phased out, a dollarised Russian economy, in which the government had few meaningful levers of financial regulation, would still be incompatible with the task of rebuilding the country's social infrastructure and productive plant. Nevertheless, this is the choice which Russia's elites now seem determined to adopt - in the form of a ``currency board''. Under this system, the government would be legally bound to keep the number of rubles in circulation in a fixed proportion to the country's reserves of US dollars. A simpler variant of this system would be the one used for many years in Panama - not to bother printing the national currency, but to use dollar bills instead. At least the Panamanians are frank about their semi-colonial status. The relations that Russia has with international economic forces are a matter for very careful, discriminating choice. Wholesale surrender will only worsen the country's dilemma. But at the same time, Russia cannot develop in isolation from the world economy. This implies that neither market-worshipping neo-liberals, nor economic xenophobes from Russia's Stalinist-chauvinist ``left'' can contribute to saving Russia from economic decay and political dismemberment. The need is for radical new ideas and activism from social layers that have not so far made much of an impact on the country's politics. And this is where Rod's ex-students, or people like them, may have a role to play. In capitalist society, middle classes ruined by economic depression are a notorious breeding-ground for fascism. But where the people involved are educated and well-travelled, their disillusionment with the system is more likely to thrust them toward the left than the right. The educated young Russians who are now to find their career hopes blasted will not finish up more disgusted with capitalism than millions of the country's wage workers are already. But they will differ from the mass of the workforce in a key respect. They will not have had beaten into them, year upon year, the conviction of their powerlessness and unfitness to influence the circumstances under which they live. The coming radicalisation of Russia's ``middle layers'', it follows, has real potential to create forces with the program, energy and organisation to achieve what today's opposition has never looked like doing - to crack the ice of popular passivity and lead much broader social layers in the active defence of mass interests. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:140] RUSSIAN DISASTERS AND WESTERN COMPLICITY
if Moscow sent a message to the US Congress urging it, say, to impeach Clinton. Of course, not every Western commentator went along with conventional wisdom. Some have urged an end to unalloyed approval of disastrous policies, no more financial aid unless Russia reinstated temporary price controls, invested in the production of consumer goods, reasserted control over foreign trade, installed a soal welfare net, and other measures. But their warnings and advice went unheeded. No one can be so foolhardly as to predict what will happen in the new few weeks or months. But the West must cease placing all theblame on the Communists (themselves a motley force) and demand a true search for alternatives. And that can only start with a merciless reappraisal of past mistakes. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:141] Russia:Violence Unlikely, but Many Worried
Russians Say Violence Unlikely, but Many Worried September 8, 1998 MOSCOW -- (Reuters) Tamara Kravtsova knows first-hand that life in post-Communist Russia can be violently unpredictable. An engineer by training, Kravtsova, 60, spent several decades living peacefully in the Chechen capital of Grozny until President Boris Yeltsin bombed the city of 400,000 in 1994 into rubble as he tried to block a separatist bid by the region. "Things are very hard to predict in Russia," she said when asked whether economic woes could lead to violence. "Back then it seemed unreal that war would happen and then it broke out." Some Russian politicians and newspapers are now warning that violence, a grim scourge that has repeatedly checked Russia's progress in the 20th century, could return as economic turmoil has again impoverished the Russian people. Yet most citizens have concentrated their energies on buying food and goods before prices rise rather preparing for the barricades or mounting protests. One central Moscow baby store was nearly empty on Tuesday after mothers bought up cribs, diapers and food in recent days. The head of the main opposition Communist Party, Gennady Zyuganov, said on Monday the tensions and frustrations in Russia parallel those in 1917 before the Bolshevik revolution. Also on Monday acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin said opposition deputies were pushing the country down the path of Indonesia, which has been hit by violence and riots this year. But Aleksei Lukyanov, 29, who imports clothing from abroad, was in Indonesia before unrest broke out this year, and said the troubles in Russia are different. "There was a different situation there because 90 percent of the business leaders are Chinese and Indians, not Indonesians, and the people were against them," he said as he waited for his daughter outside a Moscow school. "I think civil war is unlikely because Russian people are very patient and it's hard to push them in that direction," he said. "There won't be war." Lukyanov is a model of the young Russians who prospered by the thousands in the wild ride of capitalism's first years in Moscow -- and then took a severe hit after the ruble lost two thirds of its value over the last three weeks. He said his business had temporarily closed down because it can no longer make money importing goods at prices nearly four times what they were last month. With at least $20,000 in cash savings, Lyukanov said he could ride out the setback, but said he was suffering inside. "The goal is not to live on past savings but to move forward," he said. "You don't want to return to the past." Kravtsova, who spent the best part of her life in the Soviet past, said at least then people could count on stability. "My generation lived in stability, we were socially defended," she said. "You see how things have turned out differently today." She considers herself lucky to earn about $15 a day selling wallpaper at an outdoor Moscow market. She moved to Moscow in 1994 after bombs destroyed her home in Grozny. "I'm not doing badly for someone my age," she said, comparing herself to pensioners who can barely scrape up enough money to survive. One man said times were bad but violence would not happen. "I used to work in aviation, in the military industrial complex," he said, declining to give his name. "I now gather bottles for a living." "But there won't be civil war," he said. "The Russian people went through World War II, 1917 and won't let it happen again." So far, public demonstrations have been small and infrequent. About 70 atomic energy workers protested against unpaid wages in Moscow on Tuesday, and about 100 gathered at the central bank the day before. Still, some are bracing for the worst. "I think people are smart enough to come together and move forward," cycle repairman Vladimir Plazarev said as he fixed a mountain bike. "But if things get worse it would be good to have enough petrol to get to the Polish border." ( (c) 1998 Reuters) -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:139] Russia: Hunger and Shortages Bite
As Moscow dithers, shortages across Russia bite MOSCOW, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Russia's economic crisis has emptied shops, made basic goods scarce and stoked popular anger from the Pacific Ocean to the Baltic Sea, a survey by Reuters reporters across the country showed on Wednesday. While Moscow's central authorities are deadlocked over President Boris Yeltsin's attempts to appoint a prime minister, the rouble's free fall has caused a desperate rush for basic necessities not seen since the dying days of the Soviet Union. In the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, prices of sugar had tripled, flour had doubled and vegetable oil all but disappeared, the last few bottles trading hands on the street for more than five times their usual price. Buckwheat, a staple of the Russian diet, had vanished from shops and was being traded in 30 and 40 kilo (50-60 pound) sacks on the street. Coffee was nowhere to be found, and only the most expensive sorts of tea were left. ``Two women got into a vicious fight over our last piece of margarine this morning,'' said a saleswoman at one shop. At Novosibirsk's emergency hospital Number One, head doctor Nikolai Akenkev told Reuters there was only enough medicine on hand for 20 more trauma cases. Patients at the hospital were no longer being fed milk. Supplies of buckwheat, sugar, butter and meat would last only five more days, he said. A local government official in Vladivostok, Russia's main port on the Sea of Japan, said he was worried about unrest. ``In Moscow they have long forgotten about us and cannot solve their own problems. Here the population will soon take to the streets out of hunger and poverty, bash in shop windows and hang us,'' the official, who requested anonymity, said. Vladivostok has issued regulations making it illegal for shopkeepers to raise their prices, but the moves seem likely only to make the situation worse. ``Just about all our goods come from outside the province. If we cannot raise our prices along with the dollar rate, firms will simply burn out,'' a shopkeeper said. Shops in the Urals industrial city of Yekaterinburg were sold out of salt, sugar, buckwheat, macaroni and vegetable oil. ``They are sucking out all of our money. The banks, the shops are all speculating. What can you say if the dollar has gone up by three times and the prices have gone up seven or 10 times?'' said Sergei Solovyov, 27, a police employee. In Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave tucked between Poland and Lithuania, governor Leonid Gorbenko earlier this week declared an ``emergency situation.'' The wording was so alarmingly similar to a military ``state of emergency'' that Moscow protested, although it seemed to involve little more than asking producers not to raise their prices. A local journalist said there were lines outside shops. ``War goods -- buckweat, matches, salt -- have disappeared,'' Maksim Fyodorov, news editor at Kaliningrad television said by telephone -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:138] Russia: Weir on Wed. 09/09/98
From: Fred Weir in Moscow Date: Wed, 9 Sep 1998 For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT Sept 8) -- Russia is spinning out of control and even if the current government crisis is resolved the country is headed for a hard winter and possible dictatorship, analysts say. "The only thing we can count on is that tomorrow will be better than the day after," says Dmitri Trenin, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow. "All the chances to control this crisis have been used up, and we are definitely headed for hyperinflation and all its consequences," he says. "Within 6 months Russia's legal economy will be utterly destroyed." All eyes this week are focussed on the political drama unfolding in Moscow after the opposition-led State Duma for a second time rejected Viktor Chernomyrdin, President Boris Yeltsin's choice for prime minister. If the Duma turns the Kremlin's candidate down three times, it must be dissolved and new elections called. Under Russia's Kremlin-centred constitution, President Yeltsin could disband the Duma, appoint any prime minister he wants, and rule by decree. The third and final vote must take place within a week, and opposition leaders are vowing to reject Mr. Chernomyrdin again if his name is submitted to them. The Communists, parliament's largest party, have urged Mr. Yeltsin to withdraw Mr. Chernomyrdin in favour of a more acceptable candidate. Among the names Duma leaders have floated are Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, Upper House Speaker Yegor Stroyev and Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov. But analysts warn the political crisis is no longer particularly relevant to Russia's fate. "It really doesn't matter anymore who becomes prime minister," says Andrei Neshchadin, an economist with the Russian Union of Businessmen and Entrepreneurs. "They can bring in the most competent man in the world, but his options are going to be extremely limited. The economic crisis is driving everything down." Russia's beleaguered currency, the rouble, has gone into freefall, losing almost 80 per cent of its value in barely three weeks. Store shelves have been stripped bare by panicked Russians frantically trying to get rid of their money before it becomes worthless. Bank failure has shut down almost all economic activity and, as the crisis deepens, no one can say when any measure of stability will return. "Imports are already stopping, and soon there will be only Russian products to buy in the shops," says Mr. Trenin. "That means people are going to have to forget about the nice things they got used to over the past few years, and get ready for a very hard ride." In the midst of this crisis, a new public opinion survey showed this week that popular support for capitalism is at its lowest ebb in post-Soviet history. According to the survey, published in the newspaper Vremya on Monday, only one in ten Russians now backs continued market reforms, while 40 per cent want a sharp change of economic course "in the interests of the country." Sixty per cent of the respondents blamed President Yeltsin personally for the economic crisis. Some analysts are now warning that severe social unrest is on the horizon, to be followed by imposition of a dictatorship in Russia. "What will happen this winter if food and fuel supplies start to break down for people in the cities?" says Mr. Trenin. "I think we are in for a total mobilization regime, headed by an authoritarian figure. A dictatorship is looking very likely." -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:137] Russia: Miners call for Yeltsin's resignation
YELTSIN MUST GO, RUSSIAN MINERS SAY. PROTESTS CALLED FOR 7 OCTOBER. Russia's powerful mining unions are increasing their pressure for Boris Yeltsin to step down. As wage arrears continue to mount, other Russian unions are swinging behind the miners' call for a nationwide protest on 7 October, with the single aim of forcing the Russian President's early resignation. Unpaid wages owed to Russia's workers reached 70 billion redenominated roubles by the end of July (US$10 billion at the exchange rates of late July), and the backlog is continuing to grow. Miners have been in the forefront of worker protests. Their action in recent months has included work stoppages, the blockading of railway lines and other communications and, since June, a continuous picket of the White House, the Moscow headquarters of the Russian government. One strong campaigner for Yeltsin's resignation is Alexander Sergeyev, Chairman of the Miners' Independent Trade Union (NPG). Last month, Sergeyev was arrested and detained for several hours in connection with a blockade of the Trans-Siberian railway. "The miners lifted Boris Yeltsin up," Sergeyev says, "and the miners will bring him back down." That deep disillusionment is echoed in a long letter sent to Yeltsin last week by the Independent Coal Employees' Federation of Russia (Rosugleprof). The miners "supported the reforms started by the President and the Russian government," Rosugleprof President I.I. Mokhnachuk reminds Yeltsin. "However, today we have to discover that we are paying for this credulity." Mokhnachuk tells Yeltsin that Rosugleprof's extraordinary congress "suggested to Russia's industry unions to hold an All-Russian protest action on 7 October 1998 with a single demand: the early resignation of the President, who is not capable of guaranteeing the constitutional rights of the Russian citizens ... We call upon you, Boris Nikolayevich, to show civil courage and to resign ... Otherwise, you will oblige us to lead a more decisive struggle against the destruction of the coal industry, the pillage of national resources, the impoverishment of the people and the demolition of Russia." Among other unions backing the miners' call is the influential Oil, Gas and Construction Workers' Union (ROGWU). The chairs of its regions and branches met in Moscow on 19 August and issued an appeal to the union's members throughout Russia. "The oil and gas sectors," they wrote, "which have been guaranteeing an uninterrupted delivery of oil, gas and refined products to the national economy during all the years of transition, and in doing so have in fact been extending credit to the state, are letting their workers starve." Amongst other things, the union calls on oil, gas and construction workers to back the protest action on 7 October. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:136] Russia: World Bourgeoisie & Primakov
Dear pen-l'rs, The below news-sketch parallels the situation immediately following the abdication of the Czar and the assumption of power by (what proved to be) the feeble provisional government headed by Kerenskii. Then, as now, the Western bourgeoisie hailed him as an "authoritative leader" who would have been able to restore the "much needed order and stability" to what appeared to be (in the face of strikes, protests, anarchist 'direct action', desertion from the front and mass mutiny) a disintegrating Russian monarchy. Then, as now, the imperialist Western states needed the conservative regime in Russia to act as a point of reference; as a symbol of 'no alternatives' (the role of the Russian CP, as I tried to show in my earlier posts, being more the conservative than the progressive factor). All the best, Greg. RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 2, No. 176 Part I, 11 September 1998 WORLD LEADERS HAIL PRIMAKOV. World leaders heaped praise on Yeltsin's nomination of Primakov, suggesting that the diplomat-turned-prime minister will be able to restore some stability to Russia. German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel said that Primakov enjoys the trust of Western countries, while French Premier Hubert Vedrine said Primakov has the very qualities needed to restore the public's confidence in authority. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott called Primakov an "extremely able, skillful advocate of what he sees as Russia's national interest" and said that he "clearly recognizes the extraordinary importance of U.S.-Russian relations." Closer to Russia, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, who has locked horns with Primakov in the past, said that "Yevgenii Primakov is a nominee acceptable for the majority of Russia's political forces." He continued that "being an experienced and well-educated politician, [Primakov] will be able to do much to achieve stability in Russia, in which Georgia is largely interested." JAC PRIMAKOV EARNS PRAISE FROM REGIONS... Russia's regional leaders appeared to have a uniformly positive reaction to Yeltsin's nomination of Primakov. Krasnoyarsk Governor Aleksandr Lebed, who himself was considered a potential candidate, told reporters 10 September, "It's a victory and the result of a compromise between differently biased political forces." Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev also praised Yeltsin's choice, calling Primakov "an authoritative politician." Aman Tuleev, governor of Kemerovo, noted Primakov's "wisdom and considerable professional experience." And the governors of Perm and Primorskii Krai also added their voices to the chorus of commendations. JAC AND OLIGARCHS, GORBACHEV. Financial magnate Boris Berezovskii called Primakov's nomination "a decision with a plus sign in today's extremely complex situation." Most Bank head Vladimir Gusinskii described Primakov's nomination as "the best choice Russia can make today." Former President of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev said Primakov will "shape a government that will express national interests, not those of 10 percent or 20 percent of the population." JAC YELTSIN RELEGATED TO BACK SEAT? "Izvestiya" on 11 September predicted that Yeltsin, "having made one concession to his opponents, will inevitably be forced to make others and in this way will gradually withdraw from power." The newspaper added, "It is quite likely that before the year 2000, Yevgenii Primakov will have to carry out the duties of head of state as well as premier." In an interview with Russian Public Television, Yabloko leader Grigorii Yavlinskii made similar comments. He said, "The first political figure in the country is the president, but now we have a 'political' prime minister, who in every situation will be able to discuss a whole range of political issues. He cannot take decisions on all of them, but he is a responsible figure for discussing and preparing the most important decisions." JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:8] Re: taboo2: of wolves and waves and sour grapes
He said it would be the *objective*, not an inevitability. The crisis was/is approaching, not the revolution, and with it (as he judged by events of his day) "the movement of the international working-class". It is/was up to the working class to continue the struggle and its ability to do so was/is circumscribed by its ability to develop strong (hegemonic, if you will) institutions (cultural as well as political) of the working class. To a great extent, the working class has failed to do so. In solidarity, Greg. On Tue, 8 Sep 1998, Tom Walker wrote: > "The final abolition of capitalist relations of production will be the > central objective of the mass revolutionary movement of the international > working-class that is now approaching." > >[snip] > > Perhaps. But not necessarily. It's important to distinguish between the end > of capitalist development, the collapse of capitalism and the revolutionary > overthrow of capitalism. There is a strong temptation to infer the collapse > and overthrow of capitalism from the termination of capitalist development. > After all, a static (or permanently stagnating) capitalism seems like a > contradiction in terms. > >[snip] > > In retrospect, Late Capitalism was prophetic in having announced, in > 1970-72, the "critical turning point in post-war economic development." It > was also off the mark in foreseeing a continuing upsurge of insurrectionary > activity. It may be said that Mandel miscalculated the *drama* of the > turning point. Perhaps the source of this miscalculation is best summed up > in five words at the end of Mandel's chapter on 'Long Waves in Capitalism': > "-- the ebb after the flow." Those five words suggest to me the precise > moment in which the *metaphor* of the long wave suddenly became over-extended.
[PEN-L:12] Re: Re: The Return to Fiefdoms in Russia?
True, But under Brezhnev they were re-centralised. This was in fact why Khrushchev got sacked (i.e. for trying to decentralise too much). Of course, there was an impetus for the sovnarkhozy to stay in the union, because of the centrally allocated investments. Until that was exchanged for khozrashchet (literally, self financing) under Gorbachev, there was little impetus for the fiefdoms, as they were, to stay, especially in the face of the continuing crisis associated with the Soviet system of production. Today there is nothing tying some (particularly the unsubsidised) republics to the centre. valis wrote: > Quoth Gregory Schwartz: > > > As I mentioned in a previous post ([PEN-L:1] Re: Mark Jones's comments > > on Russian crisis), the reaction might mean economic decentralisation > > (into myriad fiefdoms or corporate-clan structures based on the regional > > basis). I was surprised to find out - just minutes after I finished > > writing the last message - the following post (from RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. > > 2, No. 171 Part I, 4 September 1998). > > [Kommersant article more or less confirms this speculation] > > Did not the "sovnarkhozy" reform of Khrushchev in the late '50s already > lay the groundwork for such a development? Before this measure was taken > each head of a federal production ministry ran a self-contained economic > empire stretching from the Baltic to Bering Strait. Khrushchev tried > to break up these all-union (fsyesoyooznoye) laminae into a series of > vertically integrated structures based on the then 16 republics. > I don't know how well this reform succeeded, or whether a partial or total > restoration of the old system occurred later. Grisha would know. > > valis -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:3] The Return to Fiefdoms in Russia?
As I mentioned in a previous post ([PEN-L:1] Re: Mark Jones's comments on Russian crisis), the reaction might mean economic decentralisation (into myriad fiefdoms or corporate-clan structures based on the regional basis). I was surprised to find out - just minutes after I finished writing the last message - the following post (from RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 2, No. 171 Part I, 4 September 1998). REGIONS CONSIDER ECONOMIC SEPARATISM... "Kommersant- Daily" on 3 September suggests that the ongoing political and economic crisis in Russia may prompt the handful of federation subjects (including Moscow, Tatarstan, and Krasnoyarsk Krai) that are not dependent on subsidies from the federal budget to embark on the path of economic separatism. The newspaper notes that the governors of Sakha and Kemerovo, Mikhail Nikolaev and Aman Tuleev, have already begun forming their own gold and hard-currency reserves in violation of federal law. At the same time, those regions dependent on subsidies from Moscow are experiencing budget deficits, which in some cases are equal to the entire annual budget. The newspaper also notes that such policies risk increasing the rift not only between the regions and the federal center but also between the individual regions. Saratov governor Dmitrii Ayatskov has warned that the present economic crisis could result in the disintegration of Russia as a federation and its rebirth as a confederation. LF -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:2] Russia: Duma Cancels Vote on Chernomyrdin
Duma Cancels Vote on Chernomyrdin By Barry Renfrew September 4, 1998 MOSCOW (AP) -- Russian lawmakers today postponed a vote on approving the acting prime minister, avoiding a confrontation with President Boris Yeltsin as pressure mounted on the opposition parliament to compromise. Lawmakers voted 294-54 to hold the vote Monday after parliament leaders said Yeltsin had called for more talks. The Duma, parliament's lower house, had been expected to reject acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin for a second time. The decision indicated the Communists and their hard-line allies were no longer confident of winning their confrontation with Yeltsin and were looking for a way out. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov insisted his faction would never approve Chernomyrdin and would not agree to a compromise with Yeltsin. But the Communists abstained from the vote, indicating their position might be crumbling. ``We are not going to vote for Viktor Stepanovich (Chernmyrdin). We believe he won't be able to handle this job,'' Zyuganov said. The dramatic turnabout came after Chernomyrdin's hopes of being approved received a boost today when the Federation Council, the upper chamber of Parliament, passed a non-binding motion 91-17 expressing confidence in the acting premier. Yeltsin received news of the postponement calmly, ``understanding that a longer pause for contemplation is better than haste,'' presidential spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky said. The Duma's agreement to more talks with Yeltsin boosted Chernomyrdin's hopes of approval. Yeltsin still retains enormous power and had appeared to regain the political initiative in the past few days. Russia has been plunged into an economic and political crisis by the collapse of the currency, the ruble, and a power struggle between the Duma and Yeltsin. Russians have been deeply worried, but there has been no sign of panic or unrest. After today's postponement, a weekend of hectic closed-door talks was likely as the two sides looked for a compromise. The Duma rejected Chernomyrdin last Monday in a first vote. His approval could ease the political instability in Russia, though it would not end the nation's economic distress. The opposition says it will never approve Chernomyrdin, accusing him of creating many of the current problems during his previous five years in the job. Yeltsin has said he will accept no one else. Earlier, Chernomyrdin outlined measures to stem the economic crisis. He said the government would allow the ruble to float freely, letting market forces determine its value, and would press ahead with market reforms as soon as the situation was stabilized. The Federation Council vote to back Chernomyrdin was only symbolic, but it may have increased pressure on the Duma to find a compromise. The governors who make up the Council have huge power in their regions and the vote signaled they would back Yeltsin in a showdown. Just last month, the ruble was trading at 6.2 to the dollar, or about 16 cents. Today, two days after the government said it was powerless to control the crashing currency, the U.S. dollar was close to 18 rubles in street trading. Chernomyrdin warned a quick solution to the political crisis must be found. ``It may be our last chance to build a normal economy in Russia. Yes, our actions will be unpopular. Everyone will assail us. But don't tie the government's hands, give us time to step back from the precipice,'' he said. Chernomyrdin said his economic rescue package would concentrate on meeting unpaid wages and pensions, closing down bankrupt and inefficient businesses, getting rid of dishonest managers and officials, and lowering taxes. If the Duma again rejects Chernomyrdin, Yeltsin has the option of proposing him a third time, or choosing a new candidate. If the Duma votes no for a third time, Yeltsin can call new Duma elections. Russia has been operating with an interim government since Yeltsin fired the previous prime minister Aug. 23. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1] Re: Mark Jones's comments on Russian crisis
pe (in some voluntarism fashion) that may be this time round Stalinism will be more humane than in the past. Stalinism is not an empty political programme but is an ideology appropriate to the material requirements of the Stalinist economic regime which, lest we forget, is nothing to cheer about. In sol, Greg. P.S. I shall send the article dealing with the current kow-towing of the Communists to Yeltsin in the next post. Louis Proyect wrote: > James Farmelant wrote: > > Mark Jones wrote... > . > . > . > Mark > -- > http://www.geocities.com/~comparty > > Louis Proyect > > (http://www.panix.com/~lnp3/marxism.html) -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1496] Re: Re: Russia: China to the Rescue?
Certainly $540 is 'peanuts' (well, peanuts in comparison with the social costs currently and, maybe, eventually to be borne) I was commenting on the irony of it all. Whilst most developed capitalist states are (like Japan) in dire straits or (like the EU countries) have pledged to abstain from further lending to Russia and the IMF is supposedly out of money, it is China which has, as it appears, 'come to the rescue'. This despite the fact that only 15 years ago China was relatively 'backward' on the 'development' scale in comparison even to the (itself stagnating) USSR. Greg. James Devine wrote: > At 02:31 PM 9/3/98 -0500, you wrote: > >What's this world coming to? > > > >*** > >CHINA TO THE RESCUE? While President Clinton linked > >additional economic assistance to concrete reform > >measures, China is willing to provide $540 million in > >aid to Russia, according to Britain's "The Guardian." On > > $540 million?? that's peanuts compared to the problems faced. > > Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & > http://clawww.lmu.edu/Departments/ECON/jdevine.html -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1475] Russia: In Need of Free Competition?
tical arrangement with the Duma that will include Mr. Yeltsin's orderly departure, a yielding of significant presidential powers to the Duma, and simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in the near future. Those are all necessary steps before Western financial aid can resume and a new generation of politicians, economists and entrepreneurs can emerge to tackle Russia's enormous problems. But this time outside help must be more focused on entrenching the rule of law and an authentic free market system in Russia. The country's only chance to generate sufficient revenues to ease the painful economic transition ahead lies in its oil and natural gas industries, which need significant foreign investment to become a global force. Mr. Yeltsin's government has always refused to open the oil and gas sector on commercially viable terms to foreign firms. That was the telling, and vital, flinch in Moscow's refusal to come to terms with global markets. Balancing on the brink of disaster, Moscow must now accept substantial foreign ownership in this sensitive area and show the world that it finally gets capitalism. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1474] Russia: Plot Thickens
Electronic Telegraph (UK) 3 September 1998 [for personal use only[ Plot thickens in the struggle for power By Alan Philps in Moscow THE crisis in Russia has all the elements of a Hollywood scare movie: an ageing and obstinate president, a ruined economy, a disaffected army controlling a vast nuclear arsenal, and a parliament dominated by Communists eager to seize what may be their last chance at power. Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin face reporters' questions The battle is currently being fought according to the Russian constitution, but there are many predictions that the confrontation between President Boris Yeltsin and his parliament could spill on to the streets. The normally sober business paper Kommersant was refusing to rule out civil war yesterday. The crisis stems from Mr Yeltsin's attempt to make the lower house of parliament, the State Duma, accept his candidate for premier, Viktor Chernomyrdin. Under the 1993 constitution, the President has the right to nominate his candidate three times. If the Duma continues to vote "No", he must dissolve the assembly and call elections. In past crises, the Communists - who control almost half the Duma votes - have always shied away from the ultimate challenge to the Kremlin. But this time, they sense Mr Yeltsin's weakness following the collapse of his economic reforms. The Duma rejected Mr Chernomyrdin on Monday, and is set to do the same tomorrow. If Mr Yeltsin insists on nominating him for a third time, the stage is set for confrontation. Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist leader, said: "The nomination of Chernomyrdin is a recipe for dictatorship." Party officials do not believe that Mr Yeltsin would call new polls. They predict that he would rule by decree, using some pretext, such as the economic crisis. This would mark the end of Russia's experiment in parliamentary democracy. The big question is whether Mr Yeltsin will push for a third vote. He could propose a compromise candidate, but this would be to admit that he had finally lost the initiative. The Communists are preparing a defence tactic in case Mr Yeltsin does push Mr Chernomyrdin all the way. The constitution says the Duma cannot be dissolved once it has initiated impeachment proceedings against the president for "treason or other grave crimes". The Communists are now seeking the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority to begin impeachment of Mr Yeltsin. If they can obtain 300 out of 450 votes, the stage would be set for a stalemate - the Duma would refuse to approve a prime minister, yet could not be dissolved. Mr Yeltsin might consider sending troops into parliament, as he did in 1993. But here, he would encounter a big problem: there are practically no army units which would go into battle for him. The retired paratroop general, Alexander Lebed, says that the army is in a revolutionary mood. Officers have not been paid for months, and their career prospects are shattered by drastic cutbacks. The army, however, has never shown much taste for entering politics, and the last attempted military coup in Russia, in 1991, ended in farce. There was speculation last week that the President was on the point of quitting and going to the German Alps where his daughter Tatyana is reported to have bought property. If he did resign, the Prime Minister would take over for three months while presidential polls were held. But nothing in Mr Yeltsin's conduct this week suggests he is ready to give in. He has always relished a fight with the Communists. To judge by his comments at yesterday's press conference with President Clinton, he still hopes to turn the economy around within two years, and be in a position to "bequeath" a successor to the nation. Many observers believe that the President is too weakened politically to carry on for more than a few months. But past experience suggests that he may use all means - constitutional or otherwise - to hang on to his power. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1473] Russia: China to the Rescue?
What's this world coming to? *** CHINA TO THE RESCUE? While President Clinton linked additional economic assistance to concrete reform measures, China is willing to provide $540 million in aid to Russia, according to Britain's "The Guardian." On 3 September, the newspaper quoted Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan as saying China will provide aid through the IMF. According to the Dutch newspaper "Groot-Bijgaarden De Standaard," the EU will take up the issue of the Russian economic crisis on 3 September. The possibility of adjusting credits that Russia receives under TACIS will be discussed, but a EU spokesman said that the crisis in Moscow cannot be resolved by increasing credits. JAC (c) RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 2, No. 170 Part I, 3 September 1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1472] Russia: Potatos to fuel political fire
the village of Savelovo, about 140 kilometers from Moscow, and his wife Vera, 58."Here is my social security," Pelevin said, stretching his hands over tidy piles of red-headed mushrooms he was selling for 4 rubles a bunch. The Pelevins usually collect about 500 kilograms of potatoes from their small patch of land -- enough to feed nearly four people year round -- but this year they said they feared their crop might be spoiled. "I bring home my pension, 378 rubles [about $29.50 at Wednesday's Central Bank exchange rate of 12.82 rubles to the dollar], and it's barely enough for bread. Everything else comes from the vegetable garden or the forest," Vera said. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1423] Russia: latest from Weir
From: Fred Weir in Moscow Date: Wed, 02 Sep 1998 13:06:12 (MSK) For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT Sept 2) -- Russia's political crisis sharpened Wednesday as the opposition-led parliament scheduled an early second vote on President Boris Yeltsin's prime minister -- a vote most analysts say is likely to result in another defeat for the candidate, Viktor Chernomyrdin. "It seems certain that Chernomyrdin will be rejected again," says Viktor Kuvaldin, a political expert with the Gorbachev Foundation in Moscow. "There is a strong possibility that this crisis can spin out of control and engulf the country in chaos." The State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, announced Wednesday that it will review Mr. Chernomyrdin's candidacy again on Friday, just five days after decisively rejecting him in the first round of voting. Mr. Yeltsin immediately re-submitted Mr. Chernomyrdin's name to the Duma. "This is my nomination and I will insist on it," he said. According to Russia's Constitution, if the Duma rejects the President's choice three times, the Kremlin may dissolve parliament, declare new elections, and appoint a prime minister by decree. But unlike past confrontations, when lawmakers backed down under stern pressure from Mr. Yeltsin, there are indications that this time the Duma may be willing to reject Mr. Chernomyrdin three times and face the consequences. "Chernomyrdin is the wrong man for Russia, he cannot be given the reins of power," said Marina Mitkina, spokesperson for the liberal Yabloko party, which joined Communists in voting Mr. Chernomyrdin down last Monday. "It is a matter of principle. And we believe this time the majority of Duma deputies feel the same way. Chernomyrdin will never be confirmed as prime minister." Some analysts say Mr. Yeltsin could blink before the third round and suggest a candidate who would be more palatable to the Duma than Mr. Chernomyrdin, who was prime minister for five years and who is blamed for creating the country's present mess. "Someone like Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov, or the Speaker of the upper house of parliament, Yegor Stroyev, would bring the Communists around," says Mr. Kuvaldin. "But we must remember, it is not in Yeltsin's character to compromise. We could be headed for the worst scenario." Mr. Yeltsin has urged parliament to quickly approve Mr. Chernomyrdin, lest Russia be left without a legitimate government in the midst of its deepest economic crisis of the post-Soviet period. "Every day lost is many, many millions in losses," Mr. Yeltsin said. "It is a day lost to the country, a day lost to the people. It is important to know this." In a similar drama last Spring Mr. Yeltsin compelled parliamentarians to endorse former Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko on the third round, but only after a long and bruising political battle. The Communists, who control almost half the Duma votes, say they will only accept Mr. Chernomyrdin if the President surrenders key constitutional powers to parliament -- something Mr. Yeltsin has refused to do. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov has been talking tougher than ever before, a possible sign that his party is ready for the final confrontation with the Kremlin. "Yeltsin has taken to drink and fallen apart. He is mocking the country, common sense, and all of us," by insisting on Mr. Chernomyrdin's candidacy, Mr. Zyuganov said Tuesday. Some Communist deputies say they do not fear Duma dissolution and new elections -- because the opposition is almost certain to be returned with an even bigger majority. But Mr. Zyuganov warned that Russia's fragile parliamentary system could crumble if the present crisis gets out of hand. "The President is pushing the country toward civil war," he said. "It isn't a question of Duma dissolution, but of this bankrupt government embarking on the dissolution of the Russian Federation. They cannot run Russia without the Duma." Mr. Yeltsin was hosting U.S. President Bill Clinton for the second of a two-day summit Wednesday. The Kremlin press office said the two leaders had discussed economic issues, but ruled out the possibility of any new American loans to help rescue Russia's floundering public finances. Acting Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, who was busy putting together a new cabinet and trying to formulate anti-crisis policies, said Russia's economic condition is dire and a long struggle with the Duma could push the country into chaos. "We have used up our allowance for mistakes," Mr. Chernomyrdin said. "We are walking along a narrow plank. A step to the right, a step to the left -- and it's all over." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1413] Russia: Government without Duma aproval
ision sets to furniture. But now, increasingly, the spending spree has moved on to foodstuffs, as Russians, fearing the worst, flock to wholesale markets and large supermarkets for the few bargains that remain. New stocks of imported goods have been held up in the wake of the economic crisis, as importers halt shipments on orders that have not been paid for. Russia, and Moscow in particular, has become heavily dependent on imports for both food and consumer goods, a situation which many see as fraught with danger given the country's current shortage of money. At the regular weekend wholesale market in Zhukovsky, a town 20 miles outside Moscow, shoppers on Sunday were carting away boxes of sunflower oil, macaroni, long-life milk and sugar, said Lida Botcharova, a 48-year-old local resident. "They were buying everything that will last," she said, noting that prices had already jumped, from 10 rubles to 14 for a bottle of sunflower oil, and from 10 to 19 rubles for a package of detergent. Some goods had run out after a half day of frantic sales, she said, "Who knows what will be there next week." In the absence of any concerted action by the government or the Central Bank, experts Tuesday were predicting that the ruble will only continue to slide, pushing prices up in a self-fulfilling inflationary spiral made worse by merchants' speculating on popular fears. "What the Central Bank has been doing in the past few days defies description," said Dmitri Vasilyev, chairman of Russia's Federal Securities Commission, at a press conference Tuesday. "Shops are closed, there are no goods and no bank payments are made. This should not happen." At his government meeting Tuesday, Chernomyrdin said he was preparing a series of "tough and credible actions" to restore faith in the ruble, and the economy. "We've had enough talk," he said. Among his priorities he said were protecting savings accounts, restoring the currency market, and preserving the banking system. He also said he would move to simplify the Russian tax system, and lower profit taxes in an attempt to stimulate local production. "We have no more margin for mistakes," he said. "In this situation, the government does not have a right not to work." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1412] Russia: Hyperinflation spectre looms
Hyperinflation spectre looms as prices leap By James Meek in Moscow The Guardian Food imports into Russia are dropping sharply, traders have stopped trading, and the price of a ride on the Moscow metro jumped by 50 per cent yesterday as the dread spectre of hyperinflation returned to a country that thought it had banished it. After a shopping spree lasting several days in which Muscovites cleared the shelves of imported goods at old prices, there were few takers yesterday at the restocked, repriced stores. An Interfax survey yesterday showed that domestically produced food had gone up 20 per cent on average in Moscow, and imports by 80 per cent. Foreign cigarettes doubled in price. The manager of a big new supermarket that has just opened on Tishinskaya Square was asked if he thought Russia could adapt, as Latin America had, to a sustained period of high inflation. "Now you're comparing us to the Third World!" he said angrily, and turned away. The value of the rouble against hard currencies has been unclear since the central bank suspended currency trading on the main Moscow exchange last week. Yesterday the bank fixed the rate, somewhat arbitrarily, at 9.33 to the dollar - a drop of about 50 per cent since the crisis began. Other economic players put it at anywhere from 10 to 13. Punters in the fringe risk world of the Chicago futures exchange were betting that by the middle of next year the rouble would be worth about a quarter of its value before devaluation began on August 17. The most shocking development for Muscovites was the increase in the price of a plastic metro token. It jumped from two to three roubles, the first increase in 14 months. The withdrawal of subsidies, bouts of inflation and currency reforms have increased the price of a metro journey 60,000-fold since April 1991. The effects of the devaluation, debt default and political crisis are still feeding through to customers and businesses. But the entire economy revolved around the relationship between the dollar and the rouble. Without a reliable exchange rate there can be no commerce, and without a government there can be no reliable exchange rate. "There are no transactions or payments really happening," said Steven Snaith, a British partner in the Moscow office of Coopers & Lybrand. "The amount of imports and exports has been massively reduced. "I work in the financial services sector and all the deals I was working on have been put on hold. Capital markets no longer exist and the equity market is a trickle. Until we get a government and it comes out with a strategy, everything will stay on hold and stagnate and things will get worse." Despite the official insistence that reform would stay on track, few doubt that the next government will be forced to stoke inflation by feeding the demand for cash with the only resource at its disposal, the printing presses. Al Breach, a Moscow-based British economist, said that even under Sergei Kiriyenko's government, sacked last week, soft rouble loans worth about £3.3 billion had been pumped into the economy. "They're printing," he said. "It's just a question of how fast." A delegation from the International Monetary Fund is due in Moscow today to assess Russia's eligibility for a £2.6 billion slice of the fund's rolling loan programme. Mr Breach said there was no chance Russia would get the money: "Nil would be pushing it. They're way off the map on all the monetary criteria." Half Russia's consumables are imported, and although many of these are luxury items there was fear yesterday about the degree to which the country - particularly its big cities - has become dependent on imported food. The fact that Moscow's city hall felt it necessary to soothe citizens with news that retailers and wholesalers had several months' supply of staple goods was a throwback to the shortage-ridden past. Many Russians seemed to be comforting themselves yesterday with the idea that they had survived hard times before and would do so again. But the economy has altered radically since the early 1990s and one of the biggest imponderables is how the new class of private employers will respond to the crisis. Russian workers have been docile in the face of unpaid wages, but if the backlog is not indexed and wages do not increase they may be pushed too far. ¿ Copyright Guardian Media Group plc.1998
[PEN-L:1411] Dis Capitalism
they earned would have been the height of rudeness. Now, telling virtual strangers intimate details of your financial life is prime get-to-know-you talk. But the notion that capitalism -- the system that's swallowed and regurgitated the whole of Western civilization into marketable units -- might have its limits has developed the taint of the unspeakable. Which would make you more uncomfortable, your date explaining over martinis the benefits of his stock-option plan or suggesting that drinking $8 cocktails was a questionable habit so long as hunger still exists? In the rare moments when the media isn't pontificating about Lewinsky, they're talking about money too -- how to earn it, how to grow it, how to hide it from the long fingers of the government. There's no longer even a veneer of restraint paneling our national lust for wealth. You're a fool or worse to suggest there's value in working for anything other than personal profit and comfort. When was the last time you saw an article in Smart Money, Fortune or Forbes on how to share the fruits of your bull-market millions? (Articles on charities as tax write-offs don't count.) And while State of the Union addresses invariably serve up syrupy stories about "common" people moving from reliance on social programs (welfare, affirmative action, take your pick) to liberating entrepreneurial success, such stories are almost exclusively heralded as the triumph of free enterprise rather than evidence for the value of compassionate government. When President Clinton gestures, teary-eyed, toward the inner-city teacher who returned to the ghetto after her scholarship years at Harvard instead of taking a high-paying job on Wall Street, we applaud, thankful she's made the sacrifice so we don't have to. Together We Can Defeat Capitalism spent $798 on an ad that did nothing more than question capitalism and immediately it caused a minor news sensation. (I'd like to meet the ad man who's gotten as much value for his buck.) Of course there was the commotion over those Calvin Klein ads, which people complained smacked a little too much of kiddy porn. Klein eventually killed the campaign and issued an apology; the man doesn't want to be associated with pedophilia, after all. At least pedophiles get air time. Journalists love child-abuse stories. But when are we going to see the socialist, the anarchist and the Wall Street broker trading blows -- or at least getting makeovers -- on Jerry, Jenny, Sally or Ricki? Believe it or not, there was a time when socialism, anarchy and communism were important parts of the national debate, each ideology sustaining viable movements and counting significant numbers as members. In 1912 Socialist candidate Eugene Debbs ran for president and received 6 percent of the vote; in 1924, Progressive Socialist candidate Robert LaFollette ran for president and received 16.5 percent of the vote, actually carrying Wisconsin. Anarchy was also a serious movement in the earlier part of the century, not just a big letter "A" on punkers' jeans. But the end of the Cold War and the much-heralded victory of the stock market seem to have caused many Americans to merge the principals of capitalism and democracy into one neat package. Question one and you question the other. And who wants to get branded as an anti-democratic pinko commie? SALON | Aug. 28, 1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1376] Russia: Latest from Weir
Date: Mon, 31 Aug 1998 From: Fred Weir in Moscow For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT Sept 1) -- Russia's warring politicians are accusing each other of inciting chaos and popular revolt following parliament's rejection of Viktor Chernomyrdin as prime minister. But a street survey of average Russians in downtown Moscow Monday found them furious with their leaders but disinclined to take to the streets. ``It's sickening to watch this happening. Schoolchildren are generally smarter and better behaved than these politicians,'' said Galina Polischuk, a 50-year old primary school principal. ``The country is in a terrible state. Children are going hungry and teachers aren't being paid, and all they have for us is conflict and bombast. I wish they would all go to hell.'' Russia's fragile economy has been unravelling for weeks, and ordinary Russians have begun to feel the pain. After the rouble was devalued, peoples' savings evaporated and prices jumped. A wave of bank failures has added to the general sense of collapse. But the crisis became a full-blown political one Monday when the Communist-led State Duma rejected President Boris Yeltsin's appointment of Mr. Chernomyrdin as prime minister. That is not the last word -- the Duma must vote three times on the issue -- but it means the country is left without a legitimate government while politicians battle and the economy nosedives. ``If this chaos lasts for several more weeks, it may happen that there will be neither Communists nor us,'' Mr. Yeltsin's parliamentary representative Alexander Kotenkov said Monday, urging the Duma to vote for Mr. Chernomyrdin. ``I mean popular uprising, merciless and senseless.'' Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov also invoked the spectre of mass revolt if Yeltsin refuses to give parliament the additional constitutional powers it wants to deal with the crisis. ``If we fail to reach an agreement here, everything will spill out onto the streets,'' Mr. Zyuganov said. But Ms. Polischuk says that's nonesense. ``I don't know what it's like in other parts of Russia, but no one here wants to turn a terrible situation into catastrophe,'' she said. ``Revolution won't solve anything. A little bit of sensible cooperation and hard work by politicians just might.'' Moscow has fared better in post-Soviet years than much of the country, because it is the seat of power and has received the lion's share of foreign investment. But the new middle class, which has suffered disproportionately in the financial meltdown, is heavily concentrated in Moscow. If their mood were to turn ugly the consequences could be far worse than any isolated revolt in Russia's far-flung provinces. ``Stability in a few big cities, like Moscow, is crucial to the survival of the Yeltsin government,'' says Alexander Konovalov, an expert at the independent Institute of Strategic Assessments. ``If this crisis brings financial ruin to the majority in those cities, it could bring people into the streets. It would be very close to a revolutionary situation.'' But only one of ten Muscovites questioned Monday said the hour to rise up has already struck. ``We have been humiliated for years by this gang of thieves,'' said Serafima Nikolayeva, a 70-year old pensioner who said she's been a Communist all her life. ``Let Zyuganov give the call, and I'm ready to fight at any time.'' Nikolai Bordovoi, a 34-year old bank worker, agreed that something radical should be done to end the country's tailspin, but said that mass action is not the way. ``I believe a strong man is needed to straighten things out,'' he said. ``That's the Russian way. And if a strong man seizes power and starts to do what's needed here, I will support him.'' Most others said they were too disgusted with politics in general, too exhausted by years of turmoil or too absorbed in the daily struggle for survival to think about taking to the streets. Analysts say the absence of any opposition force with mass support, and a perceived lack of credible alternatives to integrating Russia with the capitalist world market, are major reasons today's situation -- though it is dire -- is not yet verging on social explosion. ``I hate Yeltsin and I hate Chernomyrdin, but I hate the Communists more,'' said Yevgeny Kramer, a 26-year old music student. ``They are all stupid, but revolution is more stupid. ``I feel sorry for Russia, that it has no leaders who can rise to meet this crisis. I really fear a disaster is coming. But when it does I'll be home with my family, not in the streets shouting.'' -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1375] Russia: Wall Street Sent Reeling
This is the latest from The Times (of London) Greg. Wall St. sent reeling by Russian crisis FROM BRONWEN MADDOX IN WASHINGTON AND RICHARD BEESTON IN MOSCOW WALL STREET shares suffered their second-biggest points fall last night after Russia's economic crisis deepened with the parliament's rejection of President Yeltsin's choice of Prime Minister. As President Clinton boarded Air Force One for a three-day visit to Moscow, brokers were looking aghast at the neon displays confirming that yesterday's sell-off had wiped out the market's entire rise for this year. At the close, the Dow Jones index had fallen by 512.61 points - 6.3 per cent - to 7539, taking it below the 8,000 mark for the first time since January. The Dow had nearly quadrupled from 1990 to its peak on July 17, but it has fallen by nearly 20 per cent since then. London share prices are also expected to open sharply lower today. The market was already in decline and the FTSE 100 index dropped by more than a hundred points on each of the last three days of trading. The latest alarms came in response to the growing crisis in Russia and the deepening economic turmoil in the Far East. In Moscow yesterday, deputies in the Duma voted by 251 to 94 not to endorse Viktor Chernomyrdin as Prime Minister, leaving the country rudderless at a time when crucial decisions are needed to save the near-bankrupt economy. Aleksandr Kotenkov, Mr Yeltsin's representative in parliament, said that if the politicians could not put their differences aside quickly, Russia could lurch into even greater economic chaos and trigger civil strife. "If this chaos lasts for several more weeks, it may happen that there will be neither Communists nor us," he said. "I mean a popular uprising, merciless and senseless." In the Duma - the lower house of parliament - speaker after speaker from across the political spectrum had attacked Mr Chernomyrdin's record in government. But he emerged impassive from the chamber to make clear that he had no intention of backing down and that he would again seek confirmation next week. Indeed Mr Yeltsin had resubmitted his name within hours of the vote. "This country cannot continue without a Government," Mr Chernomyrdin said. "No matter what, I must make decisions because life goes on. I will deal with this." A candidate for Prime Minister can go before the Duma three times to seek confirmation. If he is rejected on the final vote, parliament is dissolved and fresh elections held. The country endured a similar spectacle five months ago when Sergei Kiriyenko won confirmation on the last vote, mainly because deputies wanted to avoid elections. The same reasoning may apply again, except that Russia can ill afford to be without an effective Government while its economy falls apart. In particular, Russia desperately needs the next tranche of IMF loans worth $4.3 billion due in mid-September. But no money will be forthcoming until a functioning Government with a clear financial policy is in place, and although there are behind-the-scenes efforts to revive the power-sharing compromise worked out at the weekend, the rouble began to slide again as soon as word of the latest stalemate filtered out. The Duma's failure to endorse Mr Chernomyrdin also means that President Clinton arrives today empty-handed, since his repeated offers of help have been conditional on economic reform. With the Dow Jones diving as he left Washington, he described the trip as an example of one of the most important lessons every child had to learn: "We are living in a smaller and smaller world. This global society, this global economy, is real. Our economies are increasingly interconnected." Wall Street's extraordinary eight-year rise has been driven by the apparently unstoppable growth of the American economy, and the turmoil gripping more than a third of the global economy has actually helped by pushing down the cost of oil, gas and other commodities. But the markets now fear that America will not be able to insulate itself much longer. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1373] Russia: Chernomyrdin pushed off
The Guardian Tuesday September 1, 1998 MPs PUSH YELTSIN TO THE EDGE By James Meek in Moscow Russia's political foes, President Boris Yeltsin and parliament, were last night locked in their potentially most dangerous confrontation after angry MPs dealt a humiliating defeat to Viktor Chernomyrdin, the acting prime minister supposed to rescue the country from the economic abyss. After a contemptuous 251 to 94 vote in the state Duma against his becoming prime minister, Mr Chernomyrdin declared he would begin forming a government anyway. He was immediately renominated for the post by Mr Yeltsin. With the Duma seemingly set on rejecting his choice again, and Mr Yeltsin equally stubborn in nominating no other candidate, parliament could be dissolved within a fortnight, setting the country on an unknown political path. With all large business transactions frozen for the second week running, and shops running out of the stocks they bought before the rouble plunged, ordinary Russians will start to feel the pinch within days. President Bill Clinton, who arrives in Moscow today for a three-day visit, risks becoming a participant in the conflict between Mr Yeltsin, Mr Chernomyrdin and parliament. President Yeltsin, who has lost much of what remained of his authority, is likely to swagger with "friend Bill" as a badge of his weight in the world. The lack of a confirmed government will delay plans by Tony Blair to call an emergency meeting of Group of Seven ministers to discuss the Russian crisis. Mr Blair held a 20-minute telephone call with Mr Yeltsin last night. As chairman of G7, the Prime Minister told Mr Yeltsin the group was ready to help, but that it must be linked to Russia continuing a programme of economic reform, a Downing Street spokesman said. As concern grew about the impact of the Russian crisis and global market queasiness on the launch of the euro, the European Union finance commissioner, Yves-Thibault de Silguy, said the 11 countries due to launch the common currency next year should hold talks. The EU is Russia's largest trading partner. "Forty per cent of Russia's foreign trade is with Europe, and only 5 per cent is with the United States," Mr Silguy said. "But it's Clinton who's going to Russia on Tuesday. We have the means to act." There is still no clear sign of which way Moscow will move fiscally to head off the emergency, although the former Argentinian economics minister Domingo Cavallo, who stopped inflation with a currency squeeze and tough privatisation, arrived in Moscow to offer his advice. Few expected Mr Chernomyrdin to be backed by the Duma yesterday, but even he was taken aback by the attacks. Most speakers blamed his time as prime minister in 1992-98 for bringing Russia to its simultaneous debt default and devaluation two weeks ago. They demanded that Mr Yeltsin agree to a government formed by the parliamentary majority. "You would not be able to cope, and there would be a collapse still deeper than that which has already taken place," Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist leader and head of the dominant left-patriot coalition, told Mr Chernomyrdin. "The criminal-oligarchic authorities would be bloodier in future. A dictatorship would be guaranteed." He claimed he could call on the support of two-thirds of MPs and the upper house to have an effective coalition government in place before the end of the week. Earlier one of the most powerful Russian businessman, the close Chernomyrdin ally and backroom kingmaker Boris Berezovsky, said Mr Chernomyrdin's government should start working whatever the Duma decided. "President Boris Yeltsin wants Viktor Chernomyrdin to become the prime minister, and I do not recall a case such as this where he changed his mind," he said. Mr Chernomyrdin said after the vote yesterday that he would set up an acting government to begin work today. "A state cannot live without a government," he said. "Steps must be taken to pay arrears to the military, students and coal miners. I will deal with this." It was not clear where the money would come from, although Moscow is rife with rumours that the rouble-printing presses have already begun to turn. Most miners are owed back wages by semi-private coal companies rather than by the government. In yesterday's parliamentary debate the leader of the liberal Yabloko movement, Grigory Yavlinsky, reminded Mr Chernomyrdin that it was during his government that barter and IOUs became the dominant means of exchange in the economy that business became criminalised. "It was under this very prime minister that Russia became a world leader in corruption," he said. Mr Yavlinsky, who on Sunday said Yabloko was ready to form a government, called on Mr Yeltsin to resign. If parliament rejects his choice twice more, the president can dissolve it. ¿ Copyright Guardian Media Group plc.1998
[PEN-L:1374] Russia: Weir on the political deal
Dear pen-l'rs,
Here is Weir's Sunday night article.
Bes regards,
Greg
*
From: Fred Weir in Moscow
Date: Sun, 30 Aug 1998
For the Hindustan Times
MOSCOW (HT Aug 30) -- In the wake of an unprecedented
pact with Government for re-dividing power in Russia, the
parliament is expected to meet in special session Monday and
should quickly approve Viktor Chernomyrdin as the crisis-wracked
country's new Prime Minister.
"This is the first time in six years that we are coming
to agreement on the definition of the problems in which Russia
finds herself," the independent Interfax agency quoted Mr.
Chernomyrdin as saying Sunday.
The deal, worked out after rumour-filled days of
negotiations between the opposition-led State Duma and the
interim government of Mr. Chernomyrdin, would halt conflict
between Russia's quarrelsome branches of power for a year and a
half while they work together to overcome the nation's financial
collapse.
Gennady Seleznyov, the Communist Speaker of the Duma, told
journalists that parliament would likely meet Monday to endorse
Mr. Chernomyrdin, and that the new Prime Minister would
subsequently consult with the Duma over further cabinet
appointments. Only the four so-called "power ministers" --
defence, security, internal affairs and foreign affairs -- will
still be directly named by the President, he said.
Russia's Independent Television Network said the deal
included the formation, within a month, of a special commission
on revising the country's authoritarian Constitution, which was
authored by President Boris Yeltsin after he physically
eliminated his parliamentary opposition in 1993. Though no details
were immediately available, the powerful Communist Party has
urged that more powers be devolved to Parliament, including the
right to approve cabinet appointments.
At the heart of the accord is a non-aggression pact between
the key branches of power, in which Parliament promises not to
vote no-confidence in the Government and President Yeltsin
pledges not to dissolve the Duma. Both sides agree to let Mr.
Chernomyrdin's new government work for a year and a half without
the kind of sweeping personnel changes that Mr. Yeltsin has
repeatedly effected lately, and which are now seen as a prime
cause of the current political volatility.
Under the deal, the Duma agrees to swiftly begin work on a
comprehensive anti-crisis program to arrest Russia's dire
financial plunge, protect the living standards of the population
and draw investment to the depressed industrial sector.
The arrangement must still be approved by Mr. Yeltsin, who
has recovered some of his characteristic defiance after a week in
which many Moscow observers wrote him off as a spent force.
"I want to say that I'm not going anywhere," Mr. Yeltsin
told Russian TV on Friday. "I'm not going to resign. I will work
as I'm supposed to for my Constitutional term. In 2000 there will
be an election for a new President and I will not run."
Nevertheless, the pact reached Sunday carries the
implication that Mr. Yeltsin's sweeping presidential powers will
be sharply reduced in coming months. There appears to be a broad
consensus among Russia's political elite that Mr. Yeltsin's
course of economic reform has been a failure, and his erratic
decisions -- such as changing Prime Ministers twice in five
months -- are a major source of political instability.
"Not only in the West, but also many people here in Russia
underestimated the peculiarity of Russia, as well as the
mentality of Russians," Mr. Chernomyrdin told the German weekly
Welt am Sonntag in answer to a question about the free-market
advice Russia has received over the past six years. "We were
offered standard economic schemes. But measures that are good for
a small country like Latvia, for example, do not work in Russia,
or even bring the opposite results."
Over the past two weeks the rouble has plunged almost 40 per
cent in value, prices on groceries and other commodities have
begun to shoot up and many of Russia's troubled banks have
refused to pay depositors their money.
The new government's first task will be to calm this
situation before real panic and social upheaval begin.
But Mr. Chernomyrdin scotched rumours that Russia is about
to enact drastic Soviet-style economic policies, such as price
controls, a ban on rouble convertibility and re-nationalization
of strategic industries.
"We have already joined the world economy, and there
will be no return to the past." he said.
``The main thing is to make sure people don't suffer. For
this we should use our power, and we will use it as much as
necessary."
--
Gregory Schwartz
Dept. of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada
Tel: (416) 736-5265
Fax: (416) 736-5686
Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1338] Russia: World's exposure to Russia exceeds $200 bln
Russia's debt to the world (play on words)! Greg. *** LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The outside world's debt and equity exposure to crisis-ridden Russia exceeds $200 billion, the Financial Times said on Friday, quoting a research body owned by leading banks. It said the figures produced by the Washington-based Institute of International Finance included $194 billion in all external debt and an estimated $11 billion for accumulated foreign investment in Russian equities at the end of 1997. But the institute pointed out that exposure did not necessarily mean loss. It quoted Dutch bank ING Barings as saying $118 billion in wealth had been "destroyed" in Russia since the start of the year, which included money lost by Russians. The bank said the figure was broken down as follows: a $57 billion fall in stock market value, a $31 billion fall in the value of outside debt and a $30 billion loss in value on GKOs, rouble-denominated treasury bills. The newspaper quoted economists and bankers as saying Russia's exposure to foreign creditors in various types of hard currency-denominated bonds was $54.5 billion. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1335] Re: Nestor's reply to Gregory Schwartz
iving in the country's regions are faced with stagnant enterprises and a collapsing social infrastructure, and with wages not being paid on order of 3-8 (in some cases 12) months at a time in the demonitised economy that has been created by the decline in production and in the reserve of roubles. The only mechanism that has prevented an insurgent uprising of the Russian workers in the face of this apparently disastrous condition have been the official unions which, in a paternalistic union with the directors of the enterprises, offer the workers social benefits and consumer goods; the workers swapping the goods on local street markets in order simply to reproduce themselves. Moreover, if dependency was something that was consciously achieved by the Yeltsin regime, we would not see the current financial crisis reverberate in the metropolitan centres with such intensity. Is not the 'purpose' of fascist regimes in the 'Third World' to resolve crises in the 'First World'? For, if there was the kind of fascist regime Nestor refers to, we would see 1). the strong state take charge of the economy and 2). drive the workers to engage in some form of value producing activity in order that goods from the metropolitan centres could be purchased locally at their relative price (that is, even if they are sold in Russia at a lower price than in the metropolitan centres, they would still generate a higher return to metropolitan capitals, who would be able to benefit from the relatively cheaper production costs associated with employing workers in captive colonial/post-colonial labour markets) 3). thereby creating Russia into a dependency and 4). stabilizing the major branches of production of global capital. Instead, what we have is the complete opposite of this: the continuous struggles between factions of the ruling class and between the ruling class the the workers, with the unions (and the aligned with them enterprise directors who wish to reap the benefits from the delivery of state subsidies to their enterprises) constantly forcing the state to meet their marginal demands and, consequently, to continue borrowing money from the IMF (not only for the enterprise subsidies but also to pay back wages and to defend the faltering rouble in the absence of production). > I insist once again: things in the Third World use to be the negative > image of things in the First World. To say this is more or less the > same as saying that the First World and the Third World constitute a > _dialectical_ unity. So that Gregory has still to explain why does he > think that calling Yeltsin "fascist _in this sense_" is wrong. As I have tried to show above, this is entirely logical but is not the case in Russia. The country certainly is a sui generis system, which must be addressed by proceeding from the production relations at the level of the enterprise. > There are some other points where I would argue with > Gregory, namely the Mandelian conception according to which > > > ... it is in fact much less precarious > > for the local ruling classes to pursue accumulation by > > remaining parasitic on the existing methods of production > > and relations of production while becoming component to > > metropolitan accumulation process, and only thus the > > component to the expanded reproduction of capital on a > > global scale. > Just to clarify: I was not saying this is the decided upon policy of the Russian state, although we are certainly witnessing some of this in Russia, primarily among merchant capitals. > This is clearly true, but the way Gregory (and Mandel) pose > it seems to forget that when a local ruling class chooses to > remain parasitic and become component to metropolitan > accumulation processes (a good way to depict the behaviour > of the ruling classes in the Third World countries), > accumulation _within_ the frontier of the country is > obstructed (and even forbidden, if need be, by political > means), a "national question" immediately arises. A > "national question" where other classes must develop the > tasks that "normal history" reserved to the bourgeoisie and > carry them to victory. If we recall Isaac Deutscher's (and > better still, Carr's) mention of the dual character of the > October revolution, socialist and colonial, the scenario I > depicted after the fall of the Soviet regime may be > "logically" possible, though I agree with Gregory that the > chances that such a ruling group carries on these tasks are > almost nil. Though it may seem screwed (I am using the word > this time myself), a Russian "national question" might, > although most probably won't, imply a progressive struggle. This is certainly true of Russia. The national question (particularly the myth of 'great power', tradition and static 'Russian culture' currently most fervently advanced by the Communists) is regularly invoked. Nestor is also right that though such invocations might imply a progressive struggle, in Russia they are of very reactionary nature. Though, to be frank, the 'national question' has always seemed to me to be populist in form. In solidarity, Greg. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1321] Re: Nestor's reply to Gregory Schwartz
I shall respond more fully to Nestor's letter in another post. For now I would like to clarify something which, it appears to me, has contributed to at least a part of this disagreement between Nestor and myself. The word which I used to describe what seemed to me to be Nestor's implication re fascism in Russia was *scewed* not *screwed*, with the original intention of it being *skewed* -- i.e. somewhat misconstrued. My appologies for not checking my spelling ;-) In sol, Greg. Louis Proyect wrote: > I found the response of Gregory Schwartz very instructive > and interesting, though I protest the adjective "screwed" > as he used it. > > As I said on the mail I sent and Gregory > criticized, if something depicts my vision of Russian > facts is that all my opinions are both "worried and uninformed". > These conditions may, we shall all agree, bring about > "screwed" conclusions. I am not _that_ sure, however, that > the particular line that Gregory has thus qualified > deserves the criticism. > > After recalling one of the basic features of fascism > (the one which, IMO, gives it its social content though _of > course_ says nothing on its actual appearence), its > indisoluble link with a (menaced) ruling imperialist > bourgeoisie, I say: > > > > I doubt that there can be a regime more "fascist" in > > > this sense than that of Yeltsin, I have a feeling that > > > his is a Platonic Republic of the true Fascists, the > > > great imperialist bourgeoisies: so perfect that any > > > change will have to be for worse. > > > > I carefully wrote "_in this sense_", in the sense that the > regime served the interests of the imperialist bourgeoisies > -in this case, by melting down, or ensuring the meltdown > of, the Soviet Union and the Soviet state. The > puntualization was meant to stress that the phrase was > written in the understanding that this was an essential but > not sufficient condition to define a regime as Fascist. > > But IMO regimes in the Third World that can look > "democratic" are -or can be- nearer to Fascism if they > serve the imperialist powers than regimes that confront > them albeit many times under "fascist" robes. I recall > now the Argentine regime that overthrew Peron, the so-called > "Revolucion Libertadora" of 1955 and the cohort of > "democrats" who -from right to left- launched a massive > attack on Argentine workers in the name of the struggle > against our local "fascism". This "democratic" regime was > the first "gorilla" regime in Latin America, and you would > be astonished to realize how many Left wing gorillas there > were (and still are). BTW, it was in the Buenos Aires of > 1955 that the political usage of the word began (I hope > gorillas will some day forgive us humans for such an usage > of their name). > > In the Third World the dictatorship of the > imperialist bourgeoisies may sometimes be exerted through > formally and even actually quasi-democratic regimes. If > these regimes cannot be discerned as what they are, because > of their respect for some individual rights (or should we > say for the rights of some individuals?), then much the > better. But _in the structural_ (as opposed to formal) > sense, they are fascist, or if you prefer corporate > regimes. > > When I say that the Yeltsin regime is a Russian form of > fascism I do not > > > ...lose sight of what is the central element of fascism > > (i.e. increased labour discipline and greater productivity > > to affect sucessful valorisation and to sustain the the > > expanded reproduction of capital in the face of crisis). > > What I am saying is that this is an important element, a > central element of fascism _in imperialist countries_. > > Fascism in a colony may well combine superexploitation of a > section of the working class with widespread devaluation of > industrial capital, in order to "sustain the expanded > reproduction of capital" in the metropolis "in face of > crisis", through _thwarting the expanded reproduction of > capital in the colony_. I do not diminish the differences > between regimes that are politically fascist and regimes > that are not. In this sense, the Yeltsin regime may not > qualify to Fascist (I do not know; however, there are some > members of this list, V. Bilenkin for example, who > think that the Yeltsin government has, at least, fascist > tendencies). But _in the sense I used the word_, I feel > that the usage is not "screwed". > > Gregory himself explains that Yeltsin's regime > > > has brough further
[PEN-L:1314] Re: A progressive coup?
Hers is a response typical of the spineless Russian intelligentsia. A good film illustrating this spinelessness is Mikhalkov's "Burnt by the Sun." Though he himself is no friend of socialism, the film offers what would be an apt socialist-humanist critique of both Stalinism and the persistence of the Russian intelligentsia. New Left Review #221 has an article by Ludmila Bulavka on this very issue. In sol, Greg. valis wrote: > She and her husband, characterized as a businessman, > are pulling "a Solzhenitsyn." If they're going back, they must expect > that their kind of Russia in the offing. She emphasized that they are > Christians, and that she wants to offer her mind to her country. > > Well, I call that a high-stakes crapshoot, anyway. > > valis -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1313] Re: Re: re-three articles on Russia
Potiomkin!
valis wrote:
> >From Frank Durgin:
> > 1)The Baltic Fleet Is on the Brink of a Riot (Summary of an article in
> > Komsomolskaya Pravda taken from Russia Today
> > ({www.russiatoday.com)}Friday, August 28, 1998
> >
> > Officers and ensigns of the Baltic Fleet on Wednesday sent a letter to the
> > president, who is also commander-in-chief, in which they called the program
> > of state house certificates for officers "burst soap bubbles."
>
> Well, Papa Karl says that history is farce the second time around.
> Can anyone here spell Potempkin?
> valis
--
Gregory Schwartz
Dept. of Political Science
York University
4700 Keele St.
Toronto, Ontario
M3J 1P3
Canada
Tel: (416) 736-5265
Fax: (416) 736-5686
Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1312] Russia: Todays News Highlights
Here are some highlights of today's news from Russia. In Sol, Greg. RUSSIA KREMLIN PREPARING FOR YELTSIN'S DEPARTURE? "Kommersant- Daily" on 27 August argued that the presidential staff no longer pretends that "everything is fine." They expect acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin "not only to overcome the financial crisis but also to secure guarantees from the [State] Duma if President [Boris Yeltsin] wants to resign." A "high-ranking" source told the newspaper that the Kremlin is seeking a special law that would provide for the president's financial and physical well-being in retirement. The newspaper adds that now "Yeltsin will share any powers with Chernomyrdin." In March, one of the reasons Yeltsin reportedly dismissed Chernomyrdin was because he conducted talks with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma as an equal. However, on 26 August, Chernomyrdin flew to Crimea with Yeltsin's full approval to meet with the Belarusian and Ukrainian heads of state. JAC RUMORS ABOUT YELTSIN SPREAD. Presidential spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembskii on 27 August insisted that there is no truth to a CBS news report that President Yeltsin has written but not yet signed his resignation. Yastrzhembskii said "I would like to calm the Russian public and the Russian and foreign media: There is no talk of, nor can there be any talk of, any resignation by the president." The same day, "Nezavisimaya gazeta" quoted a "high-ranking staffer close to presidential circles" who said that sometime in October or November the Kremlin will create "a fitting excuse for Yeltsin's departure from political life." The newspaper suggests that Yeltsin will resign only after his chosen successor, Chernomyrdin, has been confirmed as prime minister. JAC DUMA ATTEMPTS POWER GRAB... The first draft of the political agreement crafted by the Duma commission and to be approved by a tripartite commission composed of members of both legislative chambers and the administration envisions a significant transfer of power from the executive to the legislature. According to "Russkii telegraf" on 27 August, the Duma wins the right to approve the appointment not only of the prime minister but also of his deputies and key ministers. And it would be able to hold a no-confidence vote on individual ministers and not just on the government as a whole. In exchange for these broader powers, the Duma promises to freeze the impeachment process, to refrain from holding a no confidence vote in the government for at least three months, and to review and pass legislation in a speedy manner. JAC AND CONSTITUTION-TINKERING. Enacting the Duma's version of the political agreement would require revising the Russian Constitution because the agreement significantly enhances the powers of the legislature. And at least some Duma factions apparently do not mind having their enhanced powers enshrined in the constitution. On 27 August, Aleksandr Shokhin, head of the Our Home is Russia faction, told reporters that it is "necessary to start the process of making amendments to the Russian Constitution by convening a constitutional conference." JAC ADMINISTRATION BALKS AT DUMA PROPOSALS. The administration's initial reaction to the Duma's version of the political agreement was extremely negative. According to ITAR-TASS on 27 August, presidential spokesman Yastrzhembskii said that diluting the president's powers in favor of the Duma and Federation Council is "clearly asking too much." Communist Party chief Gennadii Zyuganov declared that his faction does not like the document either, but for a very different reason. In his opinion, the agreement should not preclude impeachment. It also should include some kind of law on the media, requiring "councils of observers" at all major publications that would encourage the dissemination of honest and correct information. Similarly, Nikolai Ryzhkov, leader of the Power to the People faction, thinks the agreement is flawed since it has no guarantee that the Duma would confirm eight ministers and heads of central departments, according to Russian Public Television. JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1293] Russia: The day capitalism died
ly should have known better in the first place. For the rest of the world, the long-term effects of this crisis should logically be small. The present contagion is mostly psychological, the impact on world markets out of all proportion to the size of Russia's economy and its marginal role in global trade. Only for its immediate neighbours is the risk of infection founded in the realities of trade and financial flows. Those most at risk are the countries still economically yoked to Russia, like the Ukraine and Belarus, and other former Soviet Republics and some former members of the Warsaw Pact perceived, rightly or wrongly, as somehow "linked" economically with Moscow. Take Lithuania for instance, enjoying 7 per cent growth and whose currency, the litas, is pegged to the dollar and 100 per cent backed by foreign currency reserves. None the less it conducts 25 per cent of its trade with Russia. And that may be a dangerous percentage, at a moment when Russia is proving the global capitalism Mr Clinton represents does not have all the answers. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --C69BADB7BC7D55CD20533521 The day capitalism died in Russia Rouble crisis: As analysts predict Russia will turn away from market forces, an army veteran offers survival tips. The Independent August 28, 1998 By Rupert Cornwell ENFEEBLED he may be, but Bill Clinton none the less arrives in Moscow next week as the embodiment of global capitalism. He will find a Russia whose bastard version of capitalism, implanted at Western urging and largely on the basis of Western money, may be in its death throes. Whatever the outcome of the present turmoil, analysts believe it will shift Russia, perhaps decisively, away from the global economic mainstream. After the virtual default on $40bn of foreign loans and the freefall devaluation of the currency, foreign investment is likely to dry up. Yesterday, for the second successive day and as markets tumbled around the world, the central bank cancelled foreign currency trading and refused to fix an exchange rate for the rouble. Barring renewed international credits, this step is likely to be precursor of a formal decision to end the convertibility of the rouble. This will mean a step back towards late Soviet times - of a fixed rate for trade and other official transactions and a black market rate, more or less tolerated, for the rest. In this way Russia would insulate itself from market storms. But by making its currency inconvertible, Russia would be in breach of a basic rule of the International Monetary Fund, and become ineligible for loans. The IMF therefore faces a dilemma. It and the Western community believe no more money should be lent until Moscow puts its house in order. But unless it makes more resources available, the Fund will bring about precisely what it was set up to prevent - and perhaps watch the world crash into recession. The crisis is not entirely of Russia's making. Its misfortune is to be a supplier of commodities when commodity prices are plunging. The flip side of the record low petrol prices in the US of which President Clinton is so proud - down to barely 80 cents (50p) a gallon in some places - is a steep drop in the price of oil, Russia's main source of foreign exchange. The West is sympathetic, but insists it will not help until the introduction of economic reforms, including an end to vast state subsidies of various sectors and the efficient collection of taxes to reduce a budget deficit that in practical terms is out of control. But this sort of change requires huge political will. Thus Russia's plight is as much political as economic. So what will happen ? To rule out the most apocalyptic vision, military takeover is out of the question, given the present organisational disarray and dismal morale of the armed forces, and their long tradition of non-interference in politics. But some kind of political realignment seems inevitable. Conceivably this could involve the departure of President Boris Yeltsin, precarious in health, and who has long since forfeited all confidence, at home and abroad alike, that he could impose effective government. His spokesmen yesterday again insisted he would not resign. "He is at his dacha but will be back at his desk at 9am tomorrow," an aide said last night. But the clamour could become overwhelming. His weapon is rule by decrees. But these days, their writ mostly does not run beyond the Kremlin walls. For it to do so, a Russian President must have a Parliament which basically supports him. A first sign of an emerging coalition emerging was the declared agreement yesterday between Alexander Lebed, former general and aspiring President, and the re-appointed Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin on a way out of the cr
[PEN-L:1292] Russia: The post-Yeltsin era begins
parliament and government, the rouble will go on falling and inflation will rocket. And it is not enough to tackle Russia's fundamental problems. It does not address corruption. It does not address the federal government's inability to enforce policy in the regions. It does not deal with the mess of ethnically based fiefdoms violating civil rights and sucking in subsidies. It does nothing to help the millions of Russians who are stuck in Arctic communities. There is no parliamentary majority: even the Communists themselves are deeply divided. And if parliament decides where to channel the newly minted flood of roubles, we can look forward to pork-barrelling on a grand scale, with the cash being poured into military factories and inefficient collective farms for directors to line their pockets, workers to pilfer and little of use to be produced. Watching Russia's crisis unfold, there is a sense of a Western audience impatient for a dramatic upheaval, a social explosion - now, soon, tomorrow. But this isn't Godzilla. It isn't even Jakarta. A longer sense of time is required, a sense, perhaps, of the time-scale of Germany from Versailles to the Reichstag fire. A weak, indecisive Russian coalition government could limp on under hyperinflation for months or years until some force - the neo-Gaullist Alexander Lebed, or a genuine grassroots liberal movement, or a genuine grassroots fascist movement - put it out of its misery. In 1995, Professor Alexander Yanov, author of After Yeltsin: A Weimar Russia, wrote: ''The history of the Weimar Republic was brief - just 15 years long. But it will forever remain a striking illustration of an implacable historical law: any attempt to reduce the giant task of democratic transformation of an imperial leviathan to the trivial problem of money and credits ends without fail in a world disaster." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --64551A35A4E3CC61912DB82D The post-Yeltsin era begins (Russia-watchers should not expect blood on the streets of Moscow, but the country's political elite is facing up to the agony of real change) The Guardian 28 August 1998 By James Meek in Moscow Well before the August financial crisis exploded in Russia, warning bells should have been ringing in the White House about the advisability of President Bill Clinton hobnobbing with Boris Yeltsin in Moscow. Now that the Russian debt bomb has gone off, any benefits of next week's trip - political, human or economic - are void. This is not one of those periodic crises that Mr Yeltsin can muddle through, or hide from and emerge unscathed. This crisis is open-ended, and Mr Clinton flies into Russia like an ill-prepared tourist, with an out-of-date guidebook, a map that no longer makes sense, and no bulging bumbag of dollars to smooth his way with the locals. The world has grown accustomed to the cynical argument underlying Mr Clinton's warm support for Mr Yeltsin. Their presidencies have kept in step over the years, beginning with so much hope and now faltering together. All Mr Yeltsin's moral failings - his illegal dissolution of parliament in 1993, his constant lying about the bloody war in Chechenia which he began, his plunder of state funds during the 1996 presidential election - were written off by the West against the gain of having an ally in charge of the world's second-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Bad as Mr Yeltsin was, the argument ran - and still seems to run in Washington - he was better than the inevitably nationalist, inevitably anti-US alternative. Yet even in terms of that dubious argument, Mr Yeltsin has been a growing threat to US and European national security for years. If there is one thing more dangerous than a nuclear-armed, neutral state, it is a nuclear-armed, friendly state where the people operating the weapons don't get paid for months on end. It was Mr Yeltsin's failure to negotiate a settlement with the Chechens and their neighbours which threatens to make the region a new centre of Islamic fundamentalism. Most pertinently in the present crisis, it was Mr Yeltsin who consistently sabotaged the liberal economic reforms, backed by Western governments, which pro-Western Russians such as Yegor Gaidar and Sergei Kiriyenko tried to carry out. To be fair to Mr Clinton and other Yeltsin buddies such as Helmut Kohl, it is not easy to stop supporting the elected leader of a reasonably friendly country. But what has always been offensive and is now proved unwise was the superfluous warmth towards him, the effort to yield to his desire for praise from world leaders rather than to force him into serious discussion, the missed opportunities to politely criticise him. The Yeltsin era is over, and with it Russian reliance on f
[PEN-L:1291] Russia: Duma rejects IMF
--5FB481B02706F0DDCFE67C2B Duma leader urges monetary emission and rejects IMF "diktat" Fri 28 Aug 98 - 04:27 GMT MOSCOW, Aug 28 (AFP) - The president of the Russian parliament, the communist Gennady Seleznev, called in an interview Friday for the government to print more money and ignore what he called the "diktat" of the International Monetary Fund. Seleznev said a "moderate and controlled" emission of between 30 and 50 billion rubles was indispensable to stimulate Russian enterprises. Half of the new notes would stay in state coffers anyway in the form of taxes, he said. The Duma speaker, interviewed by Interfax said the monetary mass in rubles represented only 4.0 percent of gross national product, whereas this proportion was far greater in all developed countries. "And the government of (Viktor) Chernomyrdin and that of (Sergei) Kiriyenko followed the harmful monetarist policy (initiated by former prime minister) of Yegor Gaidar during which Russian firms received no help from the state," Seleznev charged. "There has been no industrial policy," he said. Loans granted to Russia by international financial institutions, were "in part invested in loss-making sectors and in part embezzled," said Seleznev, an influential member of the Communist Party. He said he supported collaboration with the IMF and other international financial bodies to resolve Russia's unprecedented financial crisis, but "for us it is unacceptable that they should dictate their conditions to us". Seleznev also took a jibe at President Boris Yeltsin's special envoy to international financial institutions, Anatoly Chubais - the man most Russian legislators love to hate. Chubais "is one of the most dishonest people in Russia. The West still trusts him but he is a wheeler-dealer who has no right to be looking for money for Russia," Seleznev said. Chubais, who enjoys the confidence of international financial circles, negotiated in July a special stabilisation package for Russia with the IMF and other financial institutions. Seleznev said the Duma would only ratify Yeltsin's choice of Viktor Chernomyrdin as new prime minister if Yeltsin accepted proposals from a joint government-parliamentary commission to curb the sweeping powers of the president and agreed to a list of economic and social priorities drawn up by the Duma. If Yeltsin refused, Chernomyrdin would not receive parliamentary endorsement "even under threat of a dissolution of the Duma", Seleznev said. On Thursday, the Kremlin described as "excessive" the commission's proposals to limit presidential powers, though it did not reject them outright. The economic measures advocated by the commission; emitting more money, nationalisations, support for Russian productors and protection for monopolies, are in complete contradiction to the programme which the previous government put together with the IMF. Chernomyrdin himself said Thursday that his first tast would be stop the headlong fall of the ruble. He appeared to have ruled out a monetary emisssion for the time being. Seleznev, told Interfax that he "did not doubt" that when it met in the autumn the Duma would rally the majority needed to oust Yeltsin "at least on one of the charges - starting the war in Chechnya". The Duma has failed several times to secure the majority required by the constitution to unseat the president. The Kremlin on Thursday issued a statement denying a report by the US television channel CBS that Yeltsin was preparing to resign. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --5FB481B02706F0DDCFE67C2B Duma leader urges monetary emission and rejects IMF "diktat" Fri 28 Aug 98 - 04:27 GMT MOSCOW, Aug 28 (AFP) - The president of the Russian parliament, the communist Gennady Seleznev, called in an interview Friday for the government to print more money and ignore what he called the "diktat" of the International Monetary Fund. Seleznev said a "moderate and controlled" emission of between 30 and 50 billion rubles was indispensable to stimulate Russian enterprises. Half of the new notes would stay in state coffers anyway in the form of taxes, he said. The Duma speaker, interviewed by Interfax said the monetary mass in rubles represented only 4.0 percent of gross national product, whereas this proportion was far greater in all developed countries. "And the government of (Viktor) Chernomyrdin and that of (Sergei) Kiriyenko followed the harmful monetarist policy (initiated by former prime minister) of Yegor Gaidar during which Russian firms received no help from the state," Seleznev charged. "There has been no industrial policy," he said.
[PEN-L:1290] Russia: Russian crisis hits world markets
--2BF6A59EB1AAB98005094027 Russian crisis hits world markets By Simon Davies in London, William Lewis and John Labate in New York and Chrystia Freeland in Moscow Russia's worsening financial crisis sent shockwaves around the world's markets yesterday as fears for the country's political stability deepened. Japanese stocks hit a six-year low and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 357.36 points, or 4.2 per cent, at 8,165.99. The FTSE fell 3.2 per cent. Bank shares suffered as investors responded to fears over trading losses and loan provision to the developing world. German banks particularly are thought to have heavy exposure to Russia. Deutsche Bank shares continued to plummet, falling DM6.80, or 5.5 per cent, to DM115.80 (£39.38). In New York, Chase Manhattan closed down $6 1/8 at $58 1/8, while Citicorp fell $10½ to $122½. "We are seeing a global liquidity crunch, and the only solution is for the developing world to reduce interest rates if we are to avoid another 1987-style crash," said Ian Harnett at BT Alex Brown. He predicted that pan-European stock markets would fall another 10 per cent. The FTSE 100 fell 176.9 points to 5,368.5 in its second-largest points fall in five years. Continental markets were also down over 3 per cent, with Switzerland and Spain falling more than 5 per cent. David Bowers, European equity strategist at Merrill Lynch, said: "Every man and his dog was overweight in European equities, as it was perceived to be the great haven. But it is not, so they are now getting out of equities and into bonds." German government bonds hit another post-war record low yield of below 4.2 per cent for the 10-year benchmark bond, while UK gilts also performed strongly. On Wall Street the benchmark 30-Year Treasury bond rallied almost a full point to 101, sending the yield to a new record low of 5.377 per cent. In Latin America, shares on the S?o Paulo exchange fell 9.95 per cent, bringing the drop since the start of the month to 38.2 per cent. Argentina's Merval share index plunged 10.6 per cent. In Russia, the central bank suspended all foreign currency trade on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange for the second day in an effort to stem the rouble's fall. The exchange will be closed again today. The central bank's move failed to halt the rouble's fall on the streets, however, where exchange offices were selling dollars for Rb 13. Even at that price dollars were scarce in the capital and almost impossible to buy in the provinces. The stock market, where trading has nearly ground to a halt due to a shortage of buyers, fell by nearly 20 per cent to its lowest recorded level since the Russian trading system opened in September 1995. The Communist-dominated parliament demanded that President Boris Yeltsin surrender much of his constitutional authority to the legislature. In yesterday's volatile conditions it was enough to spark rumours that Mr Yeltsin was on the verge of resigning. The parliament, whose approval is required to confirm Victor Chernomyrdin as prime minister, is also calling for a softening of monetary policy and tough controls on financial markets. Mr Chernomyrdin, canvassing support, met Communist leaders and former general Alexander Lebed. Mr Chernomyrdin insisted last night that Russia's crisis. was under control. "Now I finally have a clear picture of the situation, and can say it is indeed difficult but absolutely manageable," he said. UK companies with Russian manufacturing activities expressed long-term commitment to their investments. Meanwhile Michel Camdessus, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, will today brief the fund's board on his discussion on Wednesday in the Crimea with Mr Chernomyrdin, and with President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine, a spokesman said. Separately, the IMF has invited finance ministers from Latin America to a meeting in Washington next week to discuss policy responses if the crisis continues to spread. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --2BF6A59EB1AAB98005094027 Russian crisis hits world markets By Simon Davies in London, William Lewis and John Labate in New York and Chrystia Freeland in Moscow Russia's worsening financial crisis sent shockwaves around the world's markets yesterday as fears for the country's political stability deepened. Japanese stocks hit a six-year low and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down by 357.36 points, or 4.2 per cent, at 8,165.99. The FTSE fell 3.2 per cent. Bank shares suffered as investors responded to fears over trading losses and loan provision to the developing world. German banks particularly are thought to have heavy exposure to Russia. Deutsche Bank shares continued to plummet,
[PEN-L:1289] Russia: faith in capitalism is crushed
--98192D791E1A8E9D20D194B5 Muscovites' faith in capitalism is crushed By Chrystia Freeland and Charles Clover in Moscow "The state stole our money," said Roman, a 32-year-old Moscow marketing director, who has helplessly watched $30,000 drain out of his savings account as the rouble has more than halved in value over the past 10 days. Roman, who held a 10-hour vigil yesterday outside a branch of SBS-Agro, the second most popular savings bank, in a futile effort to retrieve his money, said his faith in Russian capitalism had been crushed. "We believed in market reforms. We trusted the promises of our government and our central bank when they said, 'Go to the commercial banks, they will give you higher returns than the state'," Roman said. "But this is a lesson - I will never again put my money in a Russian bank." But Roman and the 50 other aggrieved depositors patiently waiting for their money are the lucky ones. According to poll data, only one in four Russians claims to have savings at all. The sum of all household deposits is roughly 130bn roubles, or 4 per cent of gross domestic product, meaning the average depositor holds only 3,500 roubles ($350). Most Russians are too poor - or too suspicious - to have been affected by the crisis in the banking system. The best-off are those who hold some of the $35bn in hard currency. The millions of workers whose wages have been unpaid for months, or even years, have been scratching out a diet in garden plots and living on their parents' pensions. As the rouble dissolves, the prospect of a pay-off of accumulated wages is vanishing. "All my workers have been treating the company as a sort of bank, and seeing their unpaid wages like a kind of savings," said Joseph Piradashvili, director of Zapolarneftegaz, a gas exploration company north of the Artic circle. "Now, in dollar terms, their savings have halved and soon the price of food, which must all be imported, will rise." Echoing the shortage-stricken Soviet days, those Russians who have cash are finding that there is less to buy. Some shops, and even traders in city bazaars, yesterday locked their doors to Moscow customers. The merchants are waiting for the currency to hit bottom before they resume trade. "We lost $1,800 on Tuesday alone because the rouble fell, so now we just sell for a few hours and then go home," said Lena Burmistrova, who sells Austrian shoes at a stand in Luzhniki, one of Moscow's most popular markets. "Probably Luzhniki will just close down for a week or 10 days. Everyone is in horror. No one knows what to do." Ironically, only the people who had already been reduced to penury by the market reforms are finding something to cheer about. Liuda, a 47-year-old bureaucrat in Vladivostok, Russia's far eastern outpost where water is rationed and black-outs are routine, lives on her mother's meagre pension. She thought she would never see a pay cheque again, but now she has some hope. "Maybe now they will print some roubles and I will get my salary. You can't live without money and now maybe I will get a little bit." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --98192D791E1A8E9D20D194B5 --377B9B85520F954C365F19EF Muscovites' faith in capitalism is crushed By Chrystia Freeland and Charles Clover in Moscow cid:[EMAIL PROTECTED]" ALT="Russia" BORDER=0 HEIGHT=130 WIDTH=130 ALIGN=LEFT>"The state stole our money," said Roman, a 32-year-old Moscow marketing director, who has helplessly watched $30,000 drain out of his savings account as the rouble has more than halved in value over the past 10 days. Roman, who held a 10-hour vigil yesterday outside a branch of SBS-Agro, the second most popular savings bank, in a futile effort to retrieve his money, said his faith in Russian capitalism had been crushed. "We believed in market reforms. We trusted the promises of our government and our central bank when they said, 'Go to the commercial banks, they will give you higher returns than the state'," Roman said. "But this is a lesson - I will never again put my money in a Russian bank." But Roman and the 50 other aggrieved depositors patiently waiting for their money are the lucky ones. According to poll data, only one in four Russians claims to have savings at all. The sum of all household deposits is roughly 130bn roubles, or 4 per cent of gross domestic product, meaning the average depositor holds only 3,500 roubles ($350). Most Russians are too poor - or too suspicious - to have been affected by the crisis in the banking system. The best-off are those who hold some of the $35bn in hard currency. The millions
[PEN-L:1288] Russia: Yeltsin lies low as panic grips markets
e country's "oligarchs", the financier Alexander Smolensky, who owns SBS-Agro. MPs said yesterday that they had drafted two documents, which if accepted would amount to the sharpest constitutional and economic turn taken by the country's rulers since the collapse of the Soviet Union. ¿ Copyright Guardian Media Group plc.1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --B60F4DD656CFDE5EDD127237 Friday August 28, 1998 The Guardian Yeltsin lies low as panic grips markets BY:Larry Elliott, Mark Atkinson and James Meek in Moscow Hundreds of billions of pounds were wiped off the value of share prices around the world yesterday as the shock waves from Russia's descent into financial anarchy and economic chaos reached the West. Stock markets in every continent were gripped with panic after Moscow's decision to stop defending the ailing rouble led to fears about the future of President Boris Yeltsin and the entire reform process. With Latin American markets also in a turmoil, dealers expressed mounting concern that global economic activity could grind to a halt in a re-run of the Depression of the early 1930s. The Russia crisis "gets the medal" for the worst emerging market meltdown, Martin Quintin-Archard, head of London- based Emerging Markets Bond & Asset Trading Co, told the Bloomberg news agency. "This is the biggest, the most, the quickest so far. Look out the window for a plummeting of bankers." London's FTSE 100 Index closed 176.9 points down on the day, while the Japanese stock market fell by more than 500 points to its lowest in six years. Wall Street, hitherto largely unruffled by the deepening global financial crisis, suffered a hefty fall as some of the big American banks owned up to huge losses in the former Soviet Union. In New York, the Dow Jones Index closed down a massive 357.36 points. Brazil's stock market lost 10 per cent of its value and has dropped by a third this year. Mexico's bourse suffered a 5 per cent fall yesterday, while among the leading European exchanges, Frankfurt and Madrid were the worst affected, seeing share prices shaved by around 5 per cent. In Moscow, the run on share prices continued with a vengeance, with the stock market down by 84 per cent and now worth less than the valuation of the supermarket chain Sainsbury's on the London stock exchange. With no floor in sight for the rouble, the central bank cancelled trade on the country's main foreign currency exchange until further notice. The Russian currency hit 11 to 12 roubles against the US dollar in electronic trading but without an official central bank rate, the economy cannot function. The new premier, Victor Chernomyrdin, moved to nationalise the country's third-largest bank yesterday as parliament and the government neared agreement on a shift away from the economics of the Yeltsin years. The world buzzed with rumours that the Yeltsin era had already come to an end with a letter of resignation from the president, but the Russian leader's press spokesman, Sergei Yastrzhembsky, said Mr Yeltsin would be in the Kremlin today. Amid a torrent of speculation that Mr Yeltsin is gravely ill or on the brink of quitting, one Russian newspaper carried a picture of the president looking out of a car window with the banner headline: "He's Alive". Yesterday's turmoil was fuelled by the first indications of the scale of the losses suffered by Western investors in Russia. Billionaire financier George Soros, who precipitated the crisis two weeks ago by calling for a devaluation of the rouble, has seen his Quantum fund lose $2 billion, while Republic New York bank said losses from investments in Russia would wipe out its third-quarter profits. America's 18th-largest bank said it will take a third-quarter charge against profits of $110 million to cover losses in Russia and take an additional $45 million from earnings to put aside for potential defaults of Russia loans. Meanwhile, the Credit Suisse Group confirmed that the Russian meltdown had cut its profits so far this year by a third to $500 million; Germany's Deutsche Bank admitted that it had $750 million of uninsured credit tied up in the country; and UBS AG, the Swiss-based banking giant, said it had lost $120 million in Russia during August alone. In Britain, the crisis has even been felt in the Welsh hill farms, where the once strong demand from Moscow for sheepskin coats has dried up. "Russia's demand for sheepskin coats has given a much needed boost to the sheep industry - now Russia's devaluation and its serious economic problems could add to pressure on prices at Welsh sheep markets," said the Farmers Union of Wales. With few signs that the Group of
[PEN-L:1287] Re: Argentina and Russia
. increased labour discipline and greater productivity to affect sucessful valorisation and to sustain the the expanded reproduction of capital in the face of crisis). Yeltsin has done nothing of the sort, not only because his regime has brough further disintegration of stability, a slackening of labour discipline (through the reinforcement of workers' negative control over the production process by the workers, see Burawoy, 1993, NLR), a collapse in manufacturing and agriculture, and greater reliance on imports and foreign debt, but also because 'value' (understood as a process involving the extraction of surplus labour under the conditions of socially necessary labour time) is not produced and capital (which "manifests itself as capital through valorisation -- Verwertung" /Marx/) does not exist at the systemic level. The reason: the 'drek' of history and the reproduction of administrative command elements into the post-Soviet regime. Second, the nationalists (including the Communist Zyuganov) are the same bureaucrats (in scope and in scale) that were during the 'yesteryears', and they attend the Davos meetings together with the so-called 'highwaymen' (in 1996 & 1997). They are an indigenous ruling class in aspiration; trying to make the necessary connections betwee themselves and the Western bourgeoisie. For, as E. Mandel has aply shown, it is in fact much less precarious for the local ruling classes to pursue accumulation by remaining parasitic on the existing methods of production and relations of production while becoming component to metropolitan accumulation process, and only thus the component to the expanded reproduction of capital on a global scale. This is only my understanding of what's going on/what awaits Russia, though I am not much interested in forcasting. I would be happy to leave this to the bourgeois economists.In solidarity, Greg. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1243] Russia: No sympathy from miners
--25A3B2A6CF2582BCDC362757 No Sympathy From Miners for Kiriyenko, Nemtsov August 25, 1998 Komsomolskaya Pravda (Translation for Personal Use) Report by Aleksandr Bukreyev and Yelena Ionova: "While Kiriyenko and Nemtsov Went to the Miners With a Half Liter..." On Sunday evening, having just learned of their dismissal, Kiriyenko and Nemtsov decided finally to have a man-to-man talk with the people. The ex-premier and the ex-vice premier went out onto Gorbatyy Bridge -- to the miners. Nemtsov took with him a bottle of our vodka, as a true admirer of everything Russian. On learning of this, we too decided to pay a call on the miners Monday morning. The miners readily shared their impressions of the visit by their celebrated guests: "At about 11 o'clock last night we were getting ready for bed when we saw Nemtsov and Kiriyenko come out of the White House and head toward us. There was a guard with them, and the local police. We thought: They are coming to repent and to seek sympathy. How naive! You see, they simply wanted to drown their sorrows with us guys." Boris Nemtsov was so upset that, according to the miners, he assured them that he himself was prepared to sit alongside them and bang a helmet. He would never again go near the government. He bowed his curly head: I have one way to go now, he said -- to my homeland, to Nizhniy [Novgorod], to run once again for governor. Kiriyenko cursed the oligarchs. He tried to explain to the miners that all the bad things in our economy stem from the magnates. He himself, Sergey Vladilenovich, is to blame neither for crises nor for devaluation. After all, first they set him up, and then they knocked him down But the "retirees" did not obtain the miners' support or even sympathy. The miners did not feel sorry for them: "Our paths are different. When it comes right down to it, they were never concerned about our problems. Admittedly, Nemtsov did once come to us in the summer. He tried to persuade us not to demand the president's resignation. But this was the first time we had ever seen Kiriyenko 'in the flesh'." The bottle of vodka that Nemtsov brought was never opened. The miners did not drink with them. It is said that the miners later threw that unhappy bottle into a trash can. Pathetic or not?! -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --25A3B2A6CF2582BCDC362757 No Sympathy From Miners for Kiriyenko, Nemtsov August 25, 1998 Komsomolskaya Pravda (Translation for Personal Use) Report by Aleksandr Bukreyev and Yelena Ionova: "While Kiriyenko and Nemtsov Went to the Miners With a Half Liter..." On Sunday evening, having just learned of their dismissal, Kiriyenko and Nemtsov decided finally to have a man-to-man talk with the people. The ex-premier and the ex-vice premier went out onto Gorbatyy Bridge -- to the miners. Nemtsov took with him a bottle of our vodka, as a true admirer of everything Russian. On learning of this, we too decided to pay a call on the miners Monday morning. The miners readily shared their impressions of the visit by their celebrated guests: "At about 11 o'clock last night we were getting ready for bed when we saw Nemtsov and Kiriyenko come out of the White House and head toward us. There was a guard with them, and the local police. We thought: They are coming to repent and to seek sympathy. How naive! You see, they simply wanted to drown their sorrows with us guys." Boris Nemtsov was so upset that, according to the miners, he assured them that he himself was prepared to sit alongside them and bang a helmet. He would never again go near the government. He bowed his curly head: I have one way to go now, he said -- to my homeland, to Nizhniy [Novgorod], to run once again for governor. Kiriyenko cursed the oligarchs. He tried to explain to the miners that all the bad things in our economy stem from the magnates. He himself, Sergey Vladilenovich, is to blame neither for crises nor for devaluation. After all, first they set him up, and then they knocked him down But the "retirees" did not obtain the miners' support or even sympathy. The miners did not feel sorry for them: "Our paths are different. When it comes right down to it, they were never concerned about our problems. Admittedly, Nemtsov did once come to us in the summer. He tried to persuade us not to demand the president's resignation. But this was the first time we had ever seen Kiriyenko 'in the flesh'." The bottle of vodka that Nemtsov brought was never opened. The miners did not drink with them. It is said that the miners later threw that unhappy bottle into a trash can. Pathetic or not?! -- Gregory Schw
[PEN-L:1242] Re: random thoughts on russia
To add to M. Perelman's point: > If I were one of the oligarchs of Russia, I would try to install a > "communist government," which would find out, if they do not know > already, that their moderate social democracy or whatever they espouse > today just will not work. > > They will end up doing the dirty work, enforcing more austerity and > discrediting the left. It seems the oligarchs would probably prefer dealing with the Communists more readily than with Yeltsin (at least at this point). But to give power directly to the former would be too bold a step, so they succeeded in installing Chernomyrdin in hopes of creating a coalition gov-t, where the Communists (and other conservative forces) would play the dominant role. Lest we forget Zyuganov espouses rapid re-industrialisation of the economy by means not entirely different from Stalin's, we might overlook that his (party's) vision of Russia's future coincides with both Lebed and Zhirinovsky (and to a lesser degree Chernomyrdin). The 'red directors', the 'New Russians', the military-industrial complex and 'the oligarchs' would be joined by Chernomyrdin in this unholy alliance. Essentially, if these up-to-now skirmishing clans within the Russian state can form a unified body based on consensual rule between the de jure propertied classes (which would allow for the fulfilment of either the IMF austerity policies or the domestically devised economic policies), this might mean the development of capitalism in Russia in the long run. Of course, such consolidation of the local ruling class has well-known consequences for the working class. Yet in Russia - if this coalition gov-t succeeds in paying the workers' back wages - this might mean the support of the majority of the working class. In the final analysis, however, given the particularity of Russia's production relations I, personally, cannot see the current coalition gov-t being able to fulfil certain obligations that would buy the support of the working class. What, with $7-9 billion (?) per week in debt servicing charges and the currently near stagnant industry and ravaged agriculture, such manoeuvres are unlikely to be successful, unless draconian labour discipline is de facto imposed. It seems that nothing short of a revolution and the cancellation of Western loans (a la Lenin in 1918) would give the Russian workers a new lease on life (given, of course, they have been successful in forming their own party based in the trade unions and the soviets). In solidarity, Greg. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1241] Russia: the chauvinist coalition
crisis which saw the rouble in free-fall. Economic turmoil continued apace yesterday causing the Russian Central Bank to suspend trading on the rouble, and to declare the day's results "null and void", after the currency shed 10 per cent in the first few hours of the morning's business. The IMF said that the purpose of Mr Chernomyrdin's meeting with the IMF's managing director Michel Camdessus, due to be held in the Crimea, was "to discuss recent developments in Russia and their impact on the region, particularly Ukraine". -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --86CF36B554D792AB8092DC25 Zhirinovsky, Lebed and communists join coalition talks August 27, 1998 The Independent By Phil Reeves in Moscow Cock-fighting pit, hot-air factory, drinking den and knocking shop. The popular image of the Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, and the glossy-jowled men in grey suits who sit in it, could scarcely have been worse. Until now. Now the tectonic plates beneath Russia's political system are shifting, weakening the ground beneath the broken figure of President Boris Yeltsin. And suddenly, the honourable gentlemen have caught the whiff of power. Since his abrupt restoration to office on Sunday, Viktor Chernomyrdin, the acting prime minister, has been in intense talks with parliamentary leaders. He is wooing their support because he wants them to confirm him in his post. But he may also feel that, if he is to rule for long in a crisis-hit country, he will have to share some of his power. Or, at least, pretend to. Thus, he has referred to creating a broad-based government of "accord". Thus, to the approval of the left, he has disparaged monetary economics as not the only answer to Russia's woes. And thus, too, the wily premier-designate has shuffled from pillar to post, absorbing one demand after another. The loudest of these have come from the Duma's generally cautious Communist speaker, Gennady Seleznyov, who wants Mr Yeltsin's resignation, a constitution that gives more power to parliament, and a coalition government. Mr Chernomyrdin appears to be listening. Last night, before heading for Crimea, he was to meet Vladimir Zhirinovsky, mad-cap leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democrats, the second largest party, and Gennady Zyuganov, head of the dominant Communist faction. Intriguingly, he is also talking to Alexander Lebed, the popular ex-paratroop general. A commission, with representatives from both houses of parliament and the government, is drawing up proposals on policy. For now, consensus politics is all the rage; Tsars and radical reformers are out. "The Government used to treat the Duma as if it was only a mob of chatterboxes," said Yuri Krasnov, head of the Duma's scientific research department. "But now its role has drastically changed. The President and government knows there could be a social collapse here.That's forced them to turn their face to parliament." This may be a fleeting taste for the legislature, but it is an important moment in its short history. The Duma was created after Mr Yeltsin's violent stand-off with parliament in 1993, using its pre-Revolutionary name. But it was restricted by the constitution which the President had secured by a rigged referendum in the same year, and which concentrated power on the Kremlin. It can pressure the government by, for instance, holding up the annual budget or the land code, or by refusing to verify the Start-2 arms agreement or, most recently, by rejecting parts of a package of economic austerity measures introduced by government, under pressure from the International Monetary Fund. But it is fundamentally weak, especially when compared with the United States Congress. Its overall lack of clout was compounded by a lack of respect, born of lurid accounts of the wild behaviour of its some of its members and the staggeringly numerous - 10,000 by one estimate - aides and guards in their retinues. There have been stories of wild parties behind its sombre stone walls in downtown Moscow. Violence has never been far away. One member blew up his own office when a bomb went off by mistake; four were killed on the 1996 campaign trail. A Communist aide was gunned down in Moscow this week. Worse, many Russians have no political faith in the Duma. The link between the voter and the elected is tenuous. The former regards the latter as no different from the Soviet party fat cats, who care more about access to the trough than ideology. Once in office, they sweep off to Moscow to a faraway land of free apartments, $60,000 relocation allowances, chauffeured cars, medical services in elite clinics, spa holidays and air tickets. Its reputation reached its nadir in Septembe
[PEN-L:1239] Russia: Izvestiia on Wages and Protests
--8BFBB8FC390657D869251A91 This is a summary (in translation) from August 26 Izvestiia, "Zarplata -- Lyuboi tsenoi". Wages -- at any Price August 26, 1998 Izvestiia Summary (Translation for Personal Use) Although the new government has not yet begun its activities, people must have something to eat everyday, the daily noted. The daily wrote about various protests against the nonpayment of wages. The most terrible case was near Krasnoyarsk in Chastye, where a 45-year-old farm machine operator attempted to immolate himself after representatives refused to pay his wage arrears. He needed money very badly for the upcoming wedding of his daughter. In several places in the Far East, people started shooting and demanding payment of salary debts. And in the Kemerovo region, several dozen women with children began a hunger strike, protesting nonpayment of children's benefits. Other mothers in the region went to block the Trans-Siberian railroad but were stopped by police. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --8BFBB8FC390657D869251A91 This is a summary (in translation) from August 26 Izvestiia, "Zarplata -- Lyuboi tsenoi". Wages -- at any Price August 26, 1998 Izvestiia Summary (Translation for Personal Use) Although the new government has not yet begun its activities, people must have something to eat everyday, the daily noted. The daily wrote about various protests against the nonpayment of wages. The most terrible case was near Krasnoyarsk in Chastye, where a 45-year-old farm machine operator attempted to immolate himself after representatives refused to pay his wage arrears. He needed money very badly for the upcoming wedding of his daughter. In several places in the Far East, people started shooting and demanding payment of salary debts. And in the Kemerovo region, several dozen women with children began a hunger strike, protesting nonpayment of children's benefits. Other mothers in the region went to block the Trans-Siberian railroad but were stopped by police. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci">http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --8BFBB8FC390657D869251A91--
[PEN-L:1238] Russia: Chernomyrdin attacks the central bank
--B6A7557899BB377D726AB4C3 Moscow angered by plunge of rouble August 27 1998 The Times ROBIN LODGE RUSSIA'S acting Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, attacked the central bank yesterday as the rouble plummeted on currency exchanges for the second day running. Trading was suspended on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange within minutes of it opening after the rouble dropped 5 per cent to 8.26 to the dollar. This followed a fall of more than 10 per cent on Tuesday from 7.14 to 7.88 - the biggest drop in a day for nearly four years. Mr Chernomyrdin, who flew to Ukraine yesterday for talks with the head of the IMF, was quoted by Tass as saying that he was giving his attention "minute by minute" to financial and economic policy and would be holding talks with Sergei Dubinin, Chairman of the central bank. "I am extremely dissatisfied with the work of the central bank over the last two days," he said. After the announcement last week that the Government would no longer defend the rouble, the bank said it would intervene through interest rates and currency reserves to prevent any sharp falls and thus guard against currency speculators. Clearly its intervention has been ineffectual so far. Before last Monday's announcement, the rouble was trading at about 6.2 to the dollar and has since lost nearly one third of its value. Most analysts believe that it will drop below 9.5 within the next few days. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --B6A7557899BB377D726AB4C3 Moscow angered by plunge of rouble August 27 1998 The Times ROBIN LODGE RUSSIA'S acting Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, attacked the central bank yesterday as the rouble plummeted on currency exchanges for the second day running. Trading was suspended on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange within minutes of it opening after the rouble dropped 5 per cent to 8.26 to the dollar. This followed a fall of more than 10 per cent on Tuesday from 7.14 to 7.88 - the biggest drop in a day for nearly four years. Mr Chernomyrdin, who flew to Ukraine yesterday for talks with the head of the IMF, was quoted by Tass as saying that he was giving his attention "minute by minute" to financial and economic policy and would be holding talks with Sergei Dubinin, Chairman of the central bank. "I am extremely dissatisfied with the work of the central bank over the last two days," he said. After the announcement last week that the Government would no longer defend the rouble, the bank said it would intervene through interest rates and currency reserves to prevent any sharp falls and thus guard against currency speculators. Clearly its intervention has been ineffectual so far. Before last Monday's announcement, the rouble was trading at about 6.2 to the dollar and has since lost nearly one third of its value. Most analysts believe that it will drop below 9.5 within the next few days. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci">http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --B6A7557899BB377D726AB4C3--
[PEN-L:1237] Russia: Oligarchs urged sackings, says Nemtsov
--BCDB1E2CD72E1DFF4C98D807 RUSSIA: Oligarchs urged sackings, says Nemtsov Financial Times By Chrystia Freeland and John Thornhill in Moscow A cabal of Russian corporate magnates provoked the change of the Russian government at the weekend to prevent it from pushing ahead with radical structural reforms, Boris Nemtsov, the former deputy prime minister, claimed yesterday. Mr Nemtsov, a progressive young provincial governor brought into the cabinet last year to speed the reform process, said a tough reform package was to have been implemented on Monday. The programme included measures western leaders have been urging Moscow to impose, including bankrupting some politically powerful but economically weak banks and oil companies. Stronger companies, including western creditors, would have been invited to take over the ailing institutions. But Mr Nemtsov alleged that Russia's leading businessmen, known as the "oligarchs," learned of the cabinet's plans. Led by Boris Berezovsky, an influential financier-turned-politician, the oligarchs acted swiftly to stop the restructuring programme - which could have led to the bankrupting of their corporate empires - by persuading the president to sack the government. "The point is that this week we had planned to put a number of banks under government administration . . . and to begin bankruptcy procedures against major companies, including oil companies," Mr Nemtsov, who resigned on Monday, said in an interview with the FT yesterday. "They [the oligarchs] understood that the end was near, that there might be serious changes in ownership and that the current oligarchate might come to an end. "Moreover, this fresh wind of bankruptcy . . . could lead to a displacement of the current elite. Naturally, no acting elite wants to be replaced and so they decided to replace the government." Mr Nemtsov said the move to dismiss the government was spearheaded by Mr Berezovsky, a businessman serving as secretary of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the loose association of former Soviet republics. "Of course, a significant role in the decision to sack the cabinet and nominate a new one was played by the well-known oligarch Berezovsky," said Mr Nemtsov. Having been instrumental in sacking the Kiriyenko government, Mr Nemtsov predicted that Mr Berezovsky and his corporate colleagues would now expect Victor Chernomyrdin, the new prime minister, to govern with their interests in mind. However, he warned that that expectation might be difficult for Mr Chernomyrdin to fulfil, because of the many other interest groups he will need to satisfy if he is to stay in the prime minister's chair for long. "They will try to do that [set the government's agenda], as always, but Victor Stepanovich [Chernomyrdin] will have to take into account other interests, first of all the interests of the political factions in the Duma," Mr Nemtsov said. "But, of course, Berezovsky has a certain moral right to dictate to Chernomyrdin. He [Berezovsky] no doubt believes that he did it all." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --BCDB1E2CD72E1DFF4C98D807 RUSSIA: Oligarchs urged sackings, says Nemtsov Financial Times By Chrystia Freeland and John Thornhill in Moscow A cabal of Russian corporate magnates provoked the change of the Russian government at the weekend to prevent it from pushing ahead with radical structural reforms, Boris Nemtsov, the former deputy prime minister, claimed yesterday. Mr Nemtsov, a progressive young provincial governor brought into the cabinet last year to speed the reform process, said a tough reform package was to have been implemented on Monday. The programme included measures western leaders have been urging Moscow to impose, including bankrupting some politically powerful but economically weak banks and oil companies. Stronger companies, including western creditors, would have been invited to take over the ailing institutions. But Mr Nemtsov alleged that Russia's leading businessmen, known as the "oligarchs," learned of the cabinet's plans. Led by Boris Berezovsky, an influential financier-turned-politician, the oligarchs acted swiftly to stop the restructuring programme - which could have led to the bankrupting of their corporate empires - by persuading the president to sack the government. "The point is that this week we had planned to put a number of banks under government administration . .. . and to begin bankruptcy procedures against major companies, including oil companies," Mr Nemtsov, who resigned on Monday, said in an interview with the FT yesterday. "They [the oligarchs] understood that the end was near, that there might be serious changes in ownership
[PEN-L:1236] Russia in emergency talks with IMF
--4AED7C9B62F150D2070C1E11 Thursday August 27, 1998 The Guardian Russia in emergency talks with IMF Chernomyrdin appeals for aid as West decries Moscow debt plan and leading bank collapses By James Meek and Tom Whitehouse in Moscow, and Larry Elliott The Russian prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, flew to Crimea in Ukraine last night for emergency talks with the head of the International Monetary Fund as the crashing rouble and the collapse of a leading bank pushed Russia further into chaos. With Western bankers rounding on Moscow over its plans to reschedule some $40 billion (?24 billion) of debt, and the stock market in free fall, Mr Chernomyrdin last night desperately sought more aid from the IMF and leading industrial countries. The recalled prime minister is due to make a televised appeal to the nation within days, amid mounting speculation that President Boris Yeltsin's time is running out. The trip by the IMF head, Michel Camdessus, to meet Mr Chernomyrdin and the leaders of the former Soviet republics Ukraine and Belarus - which have been sucked into the Russian economic crisis - was kept secret until the last minute. As the rouble plumbed new lows against the dollar yesterday, the central bank declared the trade null and void and said it would no longer spend its dwindling reserves to support the currency. The first big banking collapse since rouble devaluation was announced yesterday when Bank Imperial, the 13th biggest bank, had its licence withdrawn. Deutschmark trade yesterday suggested the rouble would have fallen to almost 14 against the dollar, a loss of more than 100 per cent in 10 days and a clear signpost on the road to hyperinflation. Trading in the Ukrainian currency, the hrynva, was halted on the Kiev exchange yesterday as bankers scrambled for dollars. In neo-Soviet Belarus the local currency has fallen about 600 per cent in recent months. In Russia price rises accelerated yesterday, many banks and exchange booths were closed and depositors queued at branches still open to withdraw cash - usually without success. One Russian advertising executive said: "I've lost a huge contract. No one is doing business. How can they? What price should they trade at? What currency should they use? You can't use the dollar because it's officially illegal. And the rouble?" A Moscow-based British economist, Al Breach, said Russia could not now rule out general default on its foreign debts. "If you default on one set of debts, why not default on all of them?" he said. Calls for Mr Yeltsin to quit grew more insistent yesterday. Gennady Seleznyov, chairman of the lower house of parliament, the state Duma, said deputies had drafted a law guaranteeing any retiring president 10-year membership of the upper house. This would make him immune from prosecution - though not his family or associates. Mr Chernomyrdin's options were narrowing to radical alternatives yesterday - essentially whether to govern with or without parliament. The Communist-led alliance, without whose support Mr Chernomyrdin cannot legally be confirmed as head of government, firmed up its demands: Mr Yeltsin's resignation; a sharp change of economic course involving tariff barriers, closer economic integration with ex-Soviet republics and increased rouble investment in industry; and constitutional changes to turn Russia into a parliamentary republic. Asked yesterday whether changing the constitution would not take up too much time, the Communist leader, Gennady Zyuganov, said: "An emergency situation demands emergency measures. They can be taken in three days by the houses of parliament." He said his alliance would support only a government that "clearly and definitely renounced so-called monetarist reforms". If Mr Yeltsin were to step down or give his backing, and the security forces were behind him, Mr Chernomyrdin could dissolve the Duma and impose draconian measures to restore order. The arrival in Moscow yesterday of the former general Alexander Lebed, who governs Krasnoyarsk in Siberia, spawned rumours of a Chernomyrdin-Lebed junta in the making. © Copyright Guardian Media Group plc.1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --4AED7C9B62F150D2070C1E11 Thursday August 27, 1998 The Guardian Russia in emergency talks with IMF Chernomyrdin appeals for aid as West decries Moscow debt plan and leading bank collapses By James Meek and Tom Whitehouse in Moscow, and Larry Elliott The Russian prime minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, flew to Crimea in Ukraine last night for emergency talks with the head of the International Monetary Fund as the crashing rouble and the collapse of a leading bank pushed Russia further into chaos. With Western bankers
[PEN-L:1235] Russia: de-facto 'no president'
le change of economic direction, changes to the constitution and a dominant role in the cabinet It was at the White House that the sharpest moments of recent Russian history took place. The Yeltsin legend was born here in 1991, when he mounted a tank and denounced the August coup. On both sides of the barricades, that was the crucible in which a thousand patriotic and liberal hopes were forged. It was at the White House in 1993 that the notion of Mr Yeltsin as a democrat died, as tank crews bombarded the building and special forces stormed in to flush out the remnants of an attempt to resist the president's illegal dissolution of parliament. Now, seven years after Mr Yeltsin's triumphant defeat of Soviet reactionaries and five years after his attempt to impose liberal economic reform down the barrel of a T-72 tank, it is here that his rule is winding to a confused, inglorious end. There are no tanks this time, just increasing seclusion from the mad economy he has helped create. A lone security guard kept watch on the office of the man to whom Mr Yeltsin desperately turned to save Russia from a bottomless financial crash: Mr Chernomyrdin, who was sacked in March. The brief air of optimism over his re-appointment generated by the media yesterday morning - all three main television channels are now in effect controlled by the government and its business backers - was blown away by a disastrous day on the currency markets. As MPs in the Duma savoured their new-found leverage over a prime minister designate who has promised a coalition government, staff in the parliament building near the Kremlin were in panic. Last night an anxious Mr Chernomyrdin signed an instruction agreeing the new terms on which foreign loans would be repaid and warned the Duma there were days, rather than weeks, in which to take decisions. "It may happen that the authorities are obliged to take the harshest possible measures," he said, without elaborating. Boris Nemtsov, a minister in the previous government who resigned in anger, said yesterday that it would be impossible to say in which direction Mr Chernomyrdin plans to move until he unveils his cabinet, and he refuses to do so until he is confirmed by parliament. It sounds like a recipe for political paralysis - which is exactly what Russia does not need in the midst of a financial crisis. Mr Nemtsov said a Communist-dominated government would be worse than the existing oligarchic economy. "I once asked Tony Blair which was better, communism or oligarchic capitalism," Mr Nemtsov said. "He didn't say anything for a long time. After about five minutes he said: 'They're both shit, but at least under oligarchic capitalism there is some freedom." Yet what seems in prospect is a bizarre coalition between the Communists and the oligarchic New Russian capitalists led by Mr Chernomyrdin, in the name of saving Russia. This would be a terrible wound to Mr Yeltsin. For it is exactly what was proposed by the president's disgraced former bodyguard, Alexander Korzhakov, and the tycoon Boris Berezovsky when they attempted to have the 1996 presidential elections cancelled. It might seem a blow to Russia's liberal minority but they, too, are divided. Olga Beklamishcheva, an MP from the same liberal breeding ground of Nizhny Novgorod as Mr Nemtsov and Sergei Kiriyenko, the prime minister sacked on Sunday, said: "Maybe a popular-oligarchic alliance would be the best thing. Our Communists are also businessmen - those in the Duma, at least. "Doesn't it seem like this is paying the West back for 10 years of telling us that we needed to have a completely free market in this country? When you have a free market, you get a free crisis." © Copyright Guardian Media Group plc.1998 -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --986F924B4181027CFC14BBDB Wednesday August 26, 1998 The Guardian Russia: a nation drifting into chaos Boris Yeltsin is widely believed to have surrendered power as the rouble plummets, reports James Meek in Moscow Outside the government building on the Moscow river that is mockingly named the White House the rain and the rouble were falling hard yesterday in a country that is, in effect, leaderless. All over the city Russian commentators were writing President Boris Yeltsin's political obituary. So when President Bill Clinton flies into town for a singularly ill-timed visit early next week he will have no certainty about who to talk to and no notion of the direction Russia is about to take. Nor, this time, will he have any emergency loans to offer. "Boris Yeltsin still writes decrees, reads out appeals to the people, even takes part in military manoeuvres," wrote Natalya Timakova in the Commersant Daily newspape
[PEN-L:1234] Russia: Kohl (Germany) and Obuchi (Japan) Back Yeltsin
--F95A780CF0001E124D5117C4 Kohl and Obuchi Back Yeltsin TOKYO -- (Reuters) German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi agreed on Tuesday to back Russian President Boris Yeltsin's efforts to stabilize his country's tattered economy, a Japanese spokesman said. "Russia needs continued economic reform efforts, and we must support such reform efforts (by Yeltsin)," the Japanese prime minister's spokesman quoted Kohl as telling Obuchi in a 15-minute telephone conversation. Obuchi told Kohl: "I agree. Let us continue to exchange views on Russia." The spokesman said Kohl set up the call with Obuchi two weeks ago. He said the conversation was not connected with a warning by Russia's top debt negotiator, Anatoly Chubais, that government indecision following the sacking of Sergei Kiriyenko as prime minister on Sunday could lead to grave new economic dangers for the country. Yeltsin replaced Kiriyenko with acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin who is rushing to put together a new government. Chernomyrdin, resurrected from a brief spell in the political wilderness, on Tuesday promised to refocus economic reforms as he sought to win parliamentary approval and form a government. "It's unlikely that we need to remodel completely," he said in an newspaper interview published on Tuesday as he returned to the job he held from 1992 until March this year. "However, we must deal with a lot of things." On Tuesday the Russian ruble suffered its worst fall in nearly four years, dropping 10 percent. Kohl and Obuchi also discussed the financial crisis in Asia, particularly involving Indonesia, and the effect of floods on China. The spokesman said when Kohl asked for Obuchi's assessment of the devastating Chinese floods, the Japanese prime minister replied: "I am worried about the negative impact of the floods on the Chinese economy." Voicing concern over Indonesia, Obuchi said Japan would continue to help Jakarta pull out of its financial crisis. "The Indonesian economy is in a severe condition with rising inflation," Obuch said. Obuchi urged Kohl to extend help to Indonesia. Obuchi, struggling to pull Japan out of its worst recession since World War II, said he accepted that Japan's recovery was necessary to ensure the reconstruction of the Asian economy. Earlier on Tuesday, Obuchi told parliament Japan's basic policies on Russia would not be affected by political uncertainty following Yeltsin's shock dismissal of Kiriyenko. "Japan has no intention of changing the current course of Japanese-Russian relations," Obuchi told the lower house. He did not expect changes in Russian policies toward Japan. Russian political uncertainty stems from "internal causes reflecting the confusion of Russia's economic and financial situations," said Obuchi, who visits Russia in November. But a senior Foreign Ministry official was quoted by Kyodo News Service as saying: "The instability in Russia's domestic political situation is not favorable for negotiations for concluding a peace treaty between Japan and Russia." Tokyo and Moscow are working to solve a World War II territorial dispute over ownership of Russian-held islands off Hokkaido as a way toward concluding a peace treaty by 2000. The disputed islands -- Etorofu, Kunashiri, Shikotan islands and the Habomai group of islets -- were seized by Soviet troops at the end of World War II but are claimed by Japan. Japan and Russia have yet to conclude a peace treaty because of the dispute. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --F95A780CF0001E124D5117C4 Kohl and Obuchi Back Yeltsin TOKYO -- (Reuters) German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi agreed on Tuesday to back Russian President Boris Yeltsin's efforts to stabilize his country's tattered economy, a Japanese spokesman said. "Russia needs continued economic reform efforts, and we must support such reform efforts (by Yeltsin)," the Japanese prime minister's spokesman quoted Kohl as telling Obuchi in a 15-minute telephone conversation. Obuchi told Kohl: "I agree. Let us continue to exchange views on Russia." The spokesman said Kohl set up the call with Obuchi two weeks ago. He said the conversation was not connected with a warning by Russia's top debt negotiator, Anatoly Chubais, that government indecision following the sacking of Sergei Kiriyenko as prime minister on Sunday could lead to grave new economic dangers for the country. Yeltsin replaced Kiriyenko with acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin who is rushing to put together a new government. Chernomyrdin, resurrected from a brief spe
[PEN-L:1233] Russia: Crisis Opens Door for Communists
inister. Even if the Communists secured an agreement from Chernomyrdin to play a major role in his Cabinet, he would be under no legal obligation to carry out the agreement. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --B1E2E4AC243B93B1AFD657D4 Crisis Opens Door for Communists MOSCOW -- (Reuters) The political shakeup in Russia has raised the prospect of the Communist Party joining a coalition government and taking its biggest slice of power since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But many obstacles remain to the Communists returning en masse to the government, and the price they are setting acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin for approving him in office is so tough that it is almost unacceptable. "We will only support a policy and a leadership that would clearly and straightforwardly reject the so-called monetarist reforms and agree to take a different course," Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said on Wednesday. Even if they did come back into the government, the Communists' chances of having a major say in policy-making or gaining control of important ministries are limited. Above all, doubts remain that the Communists are genuinely interested in assuming power and responsibility for a deep financial crisis which is unlikely to end quickly. "They want either to have all power or to continue playing in the opposition. They do not really want to go into a government under Chernomyrdin," said Alexei Kara-Murza, a political analyst who watches the Communist Party closely. "I think they still follow the Bolshevik diktat that the worse it gets (in Russia), the better it is for them. They want to strike a blow against Chernomyrdin, but want to do it in a way that the country does not realize it." Political analysts have long questioned whether the Communists want power and, despite the party's denials, have suggested they did not go flat out for power in the presidential election in 1996 because of Russia's daunting economic problems. President Boris Yeltsin rehabilitated Chernomyrdin, his veteran ally, on Sunday after sacking the four-month-old government of reformer Segrei Kiriyenko. He had sacked Chernomyrdin, 60, five months earlier. Chernomyrdin responded by saying he wanted to form a coalition government, or a government of consensus, to tackle Russia's financial crisis. He is now holding negotiations with leading political parties. Although details of the negotiations are not known, the Communists have set out their demands in a series of statements and interviews. They boil down to a change of economic course, Yeltsin's dismissal and denunciations of a multi-billion-dollar reform package agreed with the International Monetary Fund. The Communists also want a greater focus on reviving industrial and agricultural production, more social spending, support for science, culture and healthcare and a strengthening of Russia's defense potential. In short, that means a complete change of course. Victor Ilyukhin, a leading communist, told reporters the Communists want 10 places in the government, including the foreign ministry and one of the three "power" ministries -- the defense or interior portfolios or the Federal Security Service. These would be major concessions and it is hard to see the Kremlin bowing to them, even in such difficult circumstances. Yeltsin has the right to name the three "power" ministers and although some media reports say he has agreed to let Chernomyrdin fill them as he wants, letting Communists take them over would be a deep humiliation. Chernomyrdin has ruled out abandoning market reforms, even though he has promised changes in the way they are carried out. A complete reversal of the policy of the last seven years would mean acknowledging he and Yeltsin were wrong all those years. The Communists may believe they are negotiating from a position of strength, but they could be posturing and setting an impossibly hard bargain to escape having to take any responsibility for the crisis, analysts say. Their bargaining position is relatively strong. Chernomyrdin needs the support of the Duma, the lower house of parliament, to take office. The Communist Party and its allies dominate the chamber and can block his appointment if they vote in unison. Yeltsin would have to dissolve the Duma if it rejected Chernomyrdin three times, a climax deputies backed down from last April when they approved Kiriyenko after a fierce battle. This time, they might be ready to call Yeltsin's bluff. "Communist deputies have spent the summer out in their regions mustering support and finances. The party believes it could win a majority in the Duma if an early election were held now," Kara-Murza said. That could be more
[PEN-L:1232] Russia: Communist Boss Slams Reforms, West
--642FFDBF274AD2D905BC9C1D Communist Boss Slams Reforms, West MOSCOW -- (Reuters) Russian Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov (pictured) demanded on Wednesday that acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, who is forming a new Russian Cabinet, abandon the tough monetary course which he said was dictated by the West. "We will only support a policy and a leadership that would clearly and straightforwardly reject the so-called monetarist reforms and agree to take a different course," Zyuganov, whose party is dominant in parliament, told a news conference. "(Russian President Boris) Yeltsin, Chernomyrdin and their governments which, being dictated by the West, guided a policy deadly for Russia, share the main responsibility for the tragedy which occurred to Russia," Zyuganov said. Russia, whose economy suffered a serious blow from the world financial crisis earlier this year, is now trying to cope with an acute political and economic crisis of its own which has already paralyzed most of its financial markets. Earlier this week Yeltsin sacked Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and his entire government and put loyal ally Chernomyrdin back at the helm. Yeltsin had fired Chernomyrdin from the same job in March. The Duma (lower house of parliament) where Zyuganov sits is due to consider Chernomyrdin's nomination for premier at a session tentatively scheduled for next week. Communist sources told Reuters Zyuganov wanted Chernomyrdin publicly to denounce the tough monetary policy and multi-billion-dollar reform package agreed with the International Monetary Fund as a condition for Duma confirmation. Zyuganov said he saw no reason to negotiate with Chernomyrdin unless he committed himself to a change of course. The Communists want greater focus on reviving industrial and agricultural production, more social spending, support for science, culture and healthcare and a strengthening of Russia's defense potential. Zyuganov also repeated last week's Duma appeal to Yeltsin, recommending that he resign voluntarily over what Zyuganov called a "collapse of the economy and banking sphere." "A course aimed at revitalization of the country can only take place if the present head of state steps down. That is the root of everything," he said, appealing to Yeltsin's "elementary sense of responsibility and political will." "Yeltsin is not taking part in the life of the country. He is not interested, he is only interested in saving his clan." Communist Duma speaker Gennady Seleznyov also said it was time for Yeltsin to quit as his "credit of trust has expired." Seleznyov, quoted by Itar-Tass news agency, said a bid to impeach Yeltsin, which has been sitting in the Duma for months, was now more likely to win the necessary two-thirds support in the 450-seat chamber. At the end of his speech Zyuganov called for a massive nationwide protest under the slogans: "Sack Yeltsin!", "For an immediate change in course!" and "Up with the government of national trust!". Trade unions and opposition parties have scheduled a day of action for Oct. 9. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --642FFDBF274AD2D905BC9C1D Communist Boss Slams Reforms, West MOSCOW -- (Reuters) Russian Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov (pictured) demanded on Wednesday that acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, who is forming a new Russian Cabinet, abandon the tough monetary course which he said was dictated by the West. "We will only support a policy and a leadership that would clearly and straightforwardly reject the so-called monetarist reforms and agree to take a different course," Zyuganov, whose party is dominant in parliament, told a news conference. "(Russian President Boris) Yeltsin, Chernomyrdin and their governments which, being dictated by the West, guided a policy deadly for Russia, share the main responsibility for the tragedy which occurred to Russia," Zyuganov said. Russia, whose economy suffered a serious blow from the world financial crisis earlier this year, is now trying to cope with an acute political and economic crisis of its own which has already paralyzed most of its financial markets. Earlier this week Yeltsin sacked Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and his entire government and put loyal ally Chernomyrdin back at the helm. Yeltsin had fired Chernomyrdin from the same job in March. The Duma (lower house of parliament) where Zyuganov sits is due to consider Chernomyrdin's nomination for premier at a session tentatively scheduled for next week. Communist sources told Reuters Zyuganov wanted Chernomyrdin publicly to denounce the tough monetary policy and multi-billion-dollar reform package agreed wi
[PEN-L:1220] Russia: Weir on Cabinet Reshuffle/Weir on the Rouble/Yeltsin Decline?/Chernomyrdin Rise?/Clarke on Agriculture/Workers' Call to Arms
oot of Problem"? The notion that Russian agriculture would prosper if only land could be used as collateral for loans may seem appealing, but I don't think it holds up. Even Russian farms that are relatively well capitalised still tend to have great difficulty turning a profit, and I can think of a variety of reasons for this that have nothing to do with the system of land tenure. The key problem of Russian agriculture, I suspect, is the 1990s version of the "scissors crisis". A range of studies have shown that the prices agriculture has to pay for its inputs - machinery, fuel, fertilizer - have risen far more rapidly than the prices that the farms receive for their products. This is a predictable consequence of removing price controls in sectors of industry that are characterised by structural monopolies; rarely facing much competition, the industrialists can raise their prices to the very limit of what they think the farms can pay. The farms, on the other hand, face intense competition, not merely from one another but also from heavily subsidised producers in the European Union. If the price structures of Russian agriculture are such that making a profit is barely a possibility, then agricultural land is worth very little, and no bank would give you a meaningful loan on the basis of it. In my view, the collapse of Russian agriculture (and of light consumer industry, whose price structures are similar) has been an inescapable consequence of "reform" as practised by Gaidar and his successors. If anyone wants to know why things are miserable down on the farm, the first place they should look is in the Kremlin. ** #7 CALL TO ARMS IN RYBINSK. "Izvestiya" reported on 25 August that an unknown organization distributed leaflets urging the population of Rybinsk, a large industrial city in the Yaroslavl region, to take up arms. The newspaper quotes Asfira Pushkarnaya, an adviser to the governor of Yaroslavl Oblast, who said that although no one took the call literally, the situation in the region remains tense. Employees of state-run enterprises are owed back wages totaling 52 million rubles ($7.2 million). JAC -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1214] Re: Re: intl sign-on against the IMF quota increase
Apologies for this post. This was intended for the addressant of the below letter. Best, Greg. Gregory Schwartz wrote: > Please add my signature to the list. > > Thanks. > > Gregory Schwartz > Doctorate Student > Dept. of Political Science > York University > Toronto, Canada > > Robert Naiman wrote: > > > --- On Tue, 25 Aug 1998 07:19:21 -0400 (EDT) Robert Weissman > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Essential Action is joining with Walden Bello of Focus on the Global South > > and a number of other groups throughout the world to circulate the > > following letter to the U.S. Congress. It urges no increase in the size, > > power or funding of the IMF. > > > > The letter is open to signatures from groups or individuals, in the United > > States and especially outside of the USA. If you would like to sign, > > please send an e-mail message to Robert Naiman of the Preamble Center for > > Public Policy <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>. > > > > Also, please circulate this note and the letter to other appropriate > > organizations and lists. > > > > We have a good chance of defeating the proposed quota increase in the U.S. > > Congress. It is important that Members of Congress understand this > > letter's message that the IMF hurts not helps the world's poor people. > > > > Robert Weissman > > Essential Information | Internet: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > - > > > > To: Members of the United States Congress > > > > Re: Why we Oppose the IMF Quota Increase > > > > The undersigned organizations and individuals from around the world are > > opposed to any increase in the size, power, or funding of the International > > Monetary Fund [IMF], and in particular are opposed to any increase in the > > quota of member countries. The disastrous impact of IMF-imposed policies on > > workers rights, environmental protection, and economic growth and > > development; the crushing debt repayment burden of poor countries as a > > result of IMF policies; and the continuing secrecy of IMF operations > > provide ample justification for denying increased funding to the IMF. > > > > Economic Growth and Development: The IMFs overwhelming preference for high > > interest rates and fiscal austerity, even in the absence of any economic > > justification, has caused unnecessary recessions, reduced growth, hindered > > economic development, and increased poverty throughout the world. There is > > now a consensus among economists that the IMFs recent intervention in the > > Asian financial crisis actually worsened its impact. Many believe that the > > Fund bears the primary responsibility for turning the financial crisis into > > a major regional depression, with tens of millions of people being thrown > > into poverty and no end in sight. > > > > Labor: IMF policies undermine the livelihood of working families. IMF > > policies have mandated mass layoffs by companies and changes in labor law > > to facilitate or encourage mass layoffs, as happened recently in South > > Korea. IMF policies regularly force countries to lower wages, or often > > undermine efforts by governments to raise wages-- as, for example, in Haiti > > in recent years. > > > > Environment: IMF policies encourage and frequently require the lowering of > > environmental standards and the reckless exploitation of natural resources > > in debtor countries. The export of natural resources to earn hard currency > > to pay foreign debts under IMF mandates damages the environment while > > providing no benefit to poor and working people in debtor countries. > > > > Debt: IMF and World Bank policies have forced poor countries to make > > foreign debt service a higher priority than basic human needs. The World > > Bank claims that it is "sustainable" for countries like Mozambique to pay a > > quarter of their export earnings on debt service. Yet after World War II, > > Germany was not required to pay more than 3.5% of its export earnings on > > debt service. Poor countries today need a ceiling on debt service similar > > to the one Germany had. According to UN statistics, if Mozambique were > > allowed to spend half of the money on health care and education which it is > > now spending on debt service, it would save the lives of 100,000 children > > per year. > > > > Openness of IMF operations: IMF policies which affect the lives of a > > billion people are negotiated in secret, with key conditions not released > > to the public. The people who bear the burden of
[PEN-L:1160] Russia: Yet another Article
The Subject says it all. Greg! * Financial Times (UK) August 24, 1998 [for personal use only] RUSSIA: Yeltsin acts to save his presidency By John Thornhill in Moscow President Boris Yeltsin is famed for his erratic behaviour, whether it is failing to get off his aeroplane on a visit to Ireland or playing the spoons on the head of the visiting president of Kyrgyzstan. But Mr Yeltsin wrote a new chapter in his history of unpredictability yesterday by firing Sergei Kiriyenko as his prime minister and reinstating Victor Chernomyrdin, just five months after his abrupt dismissal. As if Russia's financial crisis was not enough, Mr Yeltsin has now instigated a political one. Unless Mr Chernomyrdin can quickly form a government commanding cross- party support, his confirmation as prime minister could be bogged down in parliament for weeks. Just as Russia's financial markets threaten to spiral out of control, the country's acting government will be paralysed for days. There is no doubt that Mr Yeltsin had been under enormous political pressure over the past few months and was growing increasingly isolated. In Moscow, once-loyal coal miners are camped outside the government's headquarters and have been chanting for Mr Yeltsin's resignation for weeks. The Communist-dominated parliament has launched impeachment proceedings against him, alleging his behaviour threatens Russia's national security. Even his allies have begun shifting their support to future presidential contenders, such as Yury Luzhkov, the populist mayor of Moscow, and Alexander Lebed, the general-turned-governor of the Siberian region of Krasnoyarsk. In such circumstances, it seems, Mr Yeltsin calculated he could ill afford to carry the inexperienced and politically lightweight Mr Kiriyenko. Instead, he has summoned back the trusty warhorse, Mr Chernomyrdin, to carry his regime a little further. But the burning question now must be for how long? Russia's newspapers have been speculating that Mr Chernomyrdin would return to the prime minister's seat before assuming the presidency at some point later this year. Under the terms of Russia's constitution, the prime minister temporarily takes over from the president should he be incapacitated while in office. The acting president must then organise presidential elections within three months. "This appears to be a form of political coup," said one observer last night. During his five-year tenure as prime minister, Mr Chernomyrdin became deeply unpopular with the electorate for his halting reforms. But he succeeded in forging an effective "clan" of interests, including Gazprom, the gas monopoly, and powerful commercial banks. He also heads the Our Home is Russia party. This power base would provide Mr Chernomyrdin with a solid launch pad for any presidential campaign. "Tsar" Boris may enjoy toying with the careers of his courtiers. But the biggest question to arise from his latest reshuffle is whether he himself is about to be eclipsed. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1159] Russia: Chernomyrdin and his autonomy
Just received this while I was writing the last message. Chernomyrdin, apparently, wants unimpeded decision-making power and choice over cabinet members in the Russian government. This would hopefully allow him to conduct the policy of 'restructuring'. Best regards, Greg. * Chernomyrdin took premiership on condition of free reign MOSCOW, Aug 23 (AFP) - Russia's new acting premier Viktor Chernomyrdin only accepted the job on condition President Boris Yeltsin does not meddle in his choice of cabinet or his government's programme, Moscow Echo radio reported Sunday. Citing sources close to Chernomyrdin, the radio said the interim prime minister had agreed to return to the post from which he was unceremoniously dumped in March on condition he was given a free hand. Chernomyrdin demanded "total personal control over the nomination of all members of the government, and no interference by the president in the work of the government," the unnamed source told the radio. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1158] Russia: Chernomyrdin back in Cabinet
27;s value in October 1994 which forced out several cabinet colleagues. Chernomyrdin's time seemed to be running out in March 1997 when Yeltsin named young reformers Boris Nemtsov and Anatoly Chubais as first deputy prime ministers to oversee reforms. But Chernomyrdin bore the humiliation calmy and waited. By early 1998, Chernomyrdin was again as powerful as ever. When Russia's economy started to wobble in late 1997 under the pressure of a global crisis sparked by turmoil in Asian financial markets, Chernomyrdin again rode the storm. But his traditional unsinkability seemed to have failed him a few months later. On March 23 Yeltsin sacked him without explanation, replacing him with Kiriyenko. Yeltsin later said the sacking was due to Chernomyrdin's lack of reformist stamina. But some Kremlin sources said the growing political weight of the premier was the real reason. Yeltsin, they said, feared Chernomyrdin had become too powerful. Chernomyrdin, abandoned by the Kremlin chief, announced plans to run for president in 2000, revealing an ambition he had long denied he harboured. Many commentators predicted that Chernomyrdin, who has little charisma and often mumbles when speaking in public, had almost no chance of winnming an election without the support of the Kremlin. Some sentenced him to political oblivion. Chernomyrdin announced plans to run for a place in the lower house of parliament to occupy him until 2000, representing the centrist party Our Home is Russia movement which he heads. It has about 10 percent of seats in the lower house. By calling back Chernomyrdin, Yeltsin has acknowledged the usefulness of his veteran ally, who is widely expected to remain as permanent prime minister and is likely to seek more independence than Kiriyenko had. Ekho Moskvy radio station quoted sources in Chernomyrdin's entourage as saying the condition for his comeback was full control over hiring and firing ministers. It said he also wanted Yeltsin to have no involvement in day-to-day management of the government. The report could not immediately be confirmed. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1141] Russia: Latest from Fred Weir
Folks, Here is the latest from (comrade in keypad) Weir in Moscow. I shall abstain from any synthesis and allow the lines of his article reveal the shaky situation in Russia. Only one thought has occupied my mind in the past few day: this so called 'financial crisis' in Russia was anticipated by Yeltsin long ago - around February. Anyone with half a brain (i.e. Yeltsin or somebody like him) could see this crisis in the making, and it is surprising its culmination took as long to materialise as it in fact did. It would seem, therefore, that as opposed to the reports of Yeltsin's dismissing of the cabinet, the impending crisis led him to concede to the demands of some important people in the cabinet for their resignation, in order that they could escape the brunt of responsibility in the coming months. This would allow them, primarily people like the GazProm tycoon, former Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, to stand innocent while furnishing (him) with the opportunity to re-evaluate more carefully the situation in order to draw-up a strategy for a sucessful presidential bid. Kirienko, for his part, is the real loser in the whole situation. But, since he did not precipitate the crisis and knowing how appointments are dealt in the Russian government, he will probably be demoted to something like the Energy Minister (not bad considering this might be Russia's future economic base), a post he held until his current appointment as a Prime Minister. This might be speculative and, in any event, not very substantial at this point, but - if true - it could shed some additional light on the impotence of the Russian state, as well as on some political forces that might emerge in the (near) future. In solidarity, Greg. * From: Fred Weir in Moscow Date: Sat, 22 Aug 1998 14:43:24 (MSK) For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT Aug 23) -- Russian politics are spiralling into confrontation as the opposition-led parliament continues an emergency session, requested by the Kremlin to pass urgent anti- crisis legislation, that has instead moved to censure the government and urge President Boris Yeltsin to resign. "Russia has entered a period of very serious financial crisis," Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko told the special assembly of the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, on Friday. "It's very unpleasant to take responsibility for the unpopular actions, but there is no pleasant and popular way out of the crisis." But the Duma appears in no mood to pass the 17 draft laws the government says are needed to raise taxes, slash spending and halt the collapse of Russia's public finances. Instead, deputies seized the opportunity Friday to pass a resolution, by 245 votes to 32, calling on Mr. Yeltsin to quit. The usually pro-government Our Home is Russia party and the liberal Yabloko party joined Communists in voting for the measure. "The country is in a deep crisis and the president is not taking measures to protect the constitutional rights of citizens. This has created a realistic threat to Russia's territorial integrity, independence and security," the resolution said. "The State Duma recommends that President B. N. Yeltsin stop fulfilling his presidential powers before the end of his term." The resolution, which is not legally binding under Russia's president-centred Constitution, was greeted with derision in the Kremlin. "People seem to forget that Russia already has a president," the official ITAR-Tass quoted Mr. Yeltsin as saying. But analysts say the situation is dire. Russia's worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union grows harsher by the day while parliament appears to have abandoned any semblance of cooperation with the government. The Duma is slated to continue its emergency session on Tuesday. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, whose party controls half the seats in parliament, said he has collected the necessary 90 signatures of deputies to place a motion of no-confidence in the government before the session. And he said the Duma must accelerate a process launched two months ago to impeach Mr. Yeltsin. "We are now in a new situation that has brought Russia to the edge of an abyss," Mr. Zyuganov said. "Russia has devalued itself to the point where a single multibillionaire can buy it. This is the full collapse of the course carried out in the past seven years," he said. Despite a $4.8-billion cash injection from the International Monetary Fund barely a month ago, the Russian government was forced to stop defending the battered rouble last week and declare a moratorium on repaying domestic and some foreign debt. Experts say the plunging rouble threatens a wave of bank failures and a new round of heavy price inflation for long suffering consumers. Russia's main stock market index ha
[PEN-L:1055] Russia to protect private investors, not workers
Dear pen-l'rs, The conclusion of this article is most telling. In solidarity, Greg. * Russia ready to protect private investors if some banks collapse By John Thornhill in Moscow Financial Times 21/08/98 Russia's central bank promised yesterday to guarantee household bank deposits while allowing some troubled banks to collapse, as it clarified its strategy for tackling the country's domestic financial crisis. Appealing to depositors not to panic, Sergei Dubinin, the central bank governor, said the bank intended to provide a 100 per cent state guarantee for all private depositors. "We ask the citizens of Russia to walk calmly through the difficult trials of the financial crisis. We call on Russian depositors not to hurry to transfer deposits or withdraw their money," he said. The bank has also set up a telephone hotline to answer depositors' concerns. The central bank fears a run on the banks could destroy the financial system, turning the controlled devaluation of the rouble into a rout. The official rate fell only marginally yesterday to 6.995 to the US dollar. Sergei Aleksashenko, first deputy bank chairman, said he envisaged that some of Russia's biggest banks could fail in the near future and would not be supported by the central bank. "It is absolutely clear that even some of the biggest Russian banks, including those in the top 20, can become bankrupt," he told Reuters Television. Some of Russia's politically well-connected commercial banks have been lobbying the central bank hard to bail them out after they incurred huge losses in the dollar forwards market when the government decided to let the rouble float. But some western bankers suggested that the central bank would have to play a far more aggressive role in bankrupting failed banks if the system were to be cleansed. Mr Dubinin did not spell out the mechanism for guaranteeing deposits but suggested big commercial banks would first be encouraged to set up a deposit insurance scheme. The bank's critics said the guarantee scheme came too late and would not be credible to many Russians. In a meeting with foreign investors, senior government ministers promised they would not discriminate against foreigners in the forthcoming restructuring of the government debt (GKO) market. Details of the controversial restructuring plan are to be announced on Monday. But some foreign banks fear they are likely to lose out when the Micex exchange, Russia's biggest currency and commodity exchange, decides today whether to honour forward trades made on Monday after the government imposed a debt moratorium on Russian commercial banks. The political temperature in Moscow rose ahead of today's parliamentary debate about the financial crisis as Victor Chernomyrdin, former prime minister, lambasted the government's record. "We have no government today. Measures that should be taken are not being taken or even proposed. All that is being proposed is all muddled. Nothing is being done," he said. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1040] Russia -Fred Weir
Latest from Fred Weir. * Date: Tue, 18 Aug 1998 From: Fred Weir in Moscow For the Hindustan Times MOSCOW (HT Aug 19) -- Russians have endured several bouts of currency chaos in the past decade, but this week's abrupt rouble devaluation has left many saying they are angry, bitter and thoroughly fed up with the government of Boris Yeltsin. ``That man has successfully lied to me for the last time,'' says Maya Sinkayevicha, a 74-year old professor of Russian literature at a Moscow technical university. Ms. Sinkayevicha says she voted for Mr. Yeltsin in 1991 and again in 1996, despite having lost her life savings of 10,000 roubles in the financial turmoil that struck immediately following the collapse of the USSR. Her Soviet-era savings were worth about $12,000 a decade ago but after the raging hyperinflation of 1992, the first year of Mr. Yeltsin's reforms, it was barely enough to buy a Big Mac and coffee at Moscow's new McDonald's restaurant. ``We took all that with patience because we hoped that things would normalize after a period of transition,'' she says. ``But now I don't believe they ever will.'' Last week, as Russia's financial crisis worsened, Ms. Sinkayevicha says she thought about converting the 8,000 new roubles she has accumulated in recent years into a safe currency. It would have been worth about $1,300. But she says she felt reassured when Mr. Yeltsin went on TV last Friday, from a government vacation spa in western Russia, and insisted there was no cause for alarm. ``There will be no devaluation of the rouble, this is a firm and clear decision,'' Mr. Yeltsin said. ``The situation is under control''. Then on Monday the government announced it would let the rouble sink from 6.3 to 9.5 to the dollar, an effective devaluation of more than one-third. Amid the turmoil Ms. Sinkayevicha's bank, like many of Russia's troubled financial institutions, has frozen all accounts and won't say when depositors can get their money. ``I'm old and I will die soon, but I'll never forgive Yeltsin for this,'' she says. Experts say the most vulnerable are middle class people like Ms. Sinkayevicha, who have decent jobs and incomes but cannot protect themselves from the impact of rouble devaluation the way Russia's handful of new rich, with their offshore bank accounts and solid property, are able to do. ``The middle class was our hope to become a normal society,'' says Igor Bunin, an analyst at the independent Centre for Political Technologies. ``But it's exactly these people, the professionals, the small businessmen, and skilled workers who will suffer the most from rouble devaluation''. The rouble's plunge will bring rapid increases in the price of goods which must be purchased in hard currency, such as imported cars, computers, appliances and foreign vacations. In Moscow, where Russia's new middle class is heavily concentrated, an estimated 60 per cent of all consumer goods on the market are imported. ``Russian industry doesn't produce much worth having, so people dream of all the Western goods they see advertised on TV. As of today, they're going to have to dream at least 30 per cent harder just to keep their hopes alive,'' says Mr. Bunin. Pyotr Grishenko, 31, who operates a small shop selling pirated computer software in downtown Moscow, says he is facing bankruptcy. ``I have to pay for my stock, which comes mostly from Bulgaria, in hard currency. But the market is so tight these days that I simply cannot afford to raise prices to compensate for the devaluation,'' he says. ``So I think I'm finished. ``Thank god I have no savings to lose.'' But many poorer people, who have been living on the subsistence line for years, say they couldn't care less about the fate of the currency. ``I have no roubles anyway, and there is no way to make life worse for me,'' says Igor Vartazanov, a 29-year old day labourer. ``If the rich geese are getting plucked and are squawking about it, that just makes me laugh.'' -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1039] The Russian crisis: S. Cohen - The Nation
Here is an article due to appear in the Nation on September 1. A distinguished professor of history, political science and russian studies, and the author of "Bukharin and the Bolshevik Revolution", Stephen Cohen in this article seems to confirm much of what has been my understanding of the situation in post-Soviet Russia in general and the roots of the present financial crisis in particular. Best regards, Greg *** The Nation September 1, 1998 Why Call It Reform? By Stephen F. Cohen Stephen F. Cohen is a professor of Russian studies and history at New York University. His most recent book, Rethinking Russia, will be published next year by Oxford. As Russias economic collapse spirals out of control, rarely if ever has American discourse about that country been so uncaringly and dangerously in conflict with reality. With its endless ideological mantra of a purported transition from Communism to free-market capitalism, almost all US government, media and academic commentary on Russias current troubles is premised on two profoundly wrong assumptions: that the problem is essentially a financial crisis and that the remedy is faster and more resolute application of the reform policies pursued by President Boris Yeltsin since 1991. Treating Russias agony as a case of the Asian fluas merely a matter of bolstering a faltering stock market, banking system and currency with more budgetary austerity and tax collection, ruble devaluation and Western financial bailoutsis like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Russias underlying problem is an unprecedented, all-encompassing economic catastrophea peacetime economy that has been in a process of relentless destruction for nearly seven years. GDP has fallen by at least 50 percent and according to one report by as much as 83 percent, capital investment by 90 percent and, equally telling, meat and dairy livestock herds by 75 percent. Except for energy, the country now produces very little; most consumer goods, especially in large cities, are imported. So great is Russias economic and thus social catastrophe that we must now speak of another unprecedented development: the literal demodernization of a twentieth-century country. When the infrastructures of production, technology, science, transportation, heating and sewage disposal disintegrate; when tens of millions of people do not receive earned salaries, some 75 percent of society lives below or barely above the subsistence level and at least 15 million of them are actually starving; when male life expectancy has plunged to 57 years, malnutrition has become the norm among schoolchildren, once-eradicated diseases are again becoming epidemics and basic welfare provisions are disappearing; when even highly educated professionals must grow their own food in order to survive and well over half the nations economic transactions are barterall this, and more, is indisputable evidence of a tragic transition backward to a premodern era. Even if economic growth were miraculously to resume tomorrow, Russia would need decades to regain what it has lost in the nineties, and nothing can retrieve the millions of lives already cut short by the transition. Indeed, as a careful statistical study by Professor Stephen Shenfield of Brown University shows, an even greater and possibly inescapable economic and social disaster is rapidly approaching. Why call this reform, as does virtually every US commentator? Certainly, very few Russians any longer do, except to curse Yeltsin and his policies, especially those long and zealously promoted by the Clinton Administration. Russian economists and politicians across the spectrum are now desperately trying to formulate alternative economic policies that might save their nationones more akin to Franklin Roosevelts New Deal than to the neoliberal monetarist orthodoxies of the State and Treasury departments, the IMF, World Bank and legions of Western advisers, which have done so much to abet Russias calamity. But when President Clinton goes to Moscow in early September, he will no doubt tell Yeltsin publicly, as he often has done in the past and Vice President Gore did when he visited in July, Stay the course! For many Russians, it will mean that America welcomes what has happened to their country and does not care about their ruined lives. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1012] Re: Re: Re: 3 Articles on Russia - Fred Weir, Reuters
boddhisatva wrote: > C. Schwartz, > If policies favor the welfare state, the clans can use that as a weapon and > if policies undermine the welfare state the people are that much more > dependent on the wages that the clans dole out with an eye-dropper. > This is precisely the case. These are the paternalistic structures that have remained since the USSR's "labour collective" ideology, whereby unions, workers, and management all work for the good of the enterprise. Today many unions, including FNPR (Federation if Independent Trade Unions), continue to play this conciliationist role. (I touched on this in one of my previous posts.) They allow the enterprise directors (who belong to these 'clans') to exercise control over workers by simply buying them off. In fact, the blame for the non-payment of wages is not against the managers (many of them often protest with the workers; talk about paternalism!) but against the government in Moscow who either supposedly taxes the enterprises heavily or has failed to deliver some subsidy. This serves two purposes: 1). it reinforces the paternalistic hold of management over the workers and 2). strengthens the position of a given clan vis-a-vis the centre, through the support they garner from the workers. Effectively, this also severs workers' attempts to organise democratic economic and political structures. Lately, however, there have been signs that the workers have lost faith in this strategy, and have in some cases renounced any allegiance to parties that effectively represent these clans (like Zhyrinovsky's proto-fascist LDPR, General Lebed's power bloc, Zyuganov's Communist Party, to name a few). In one of my previous posts I attached an article that attested to this. > is there any move on the Communuist party's part to try and get the workers > to organize and use their formal ownership rights or is the party simply > trying to reinstate the welfare state? > I think I illustrated elsewhere that the Communist Party's real base is among such industrial-financial 'clans'. There is little that's communist about these Communists. As far as the welfare state is concerned, the CPRF is rhetorically committed to it and is most likely to offer it if it comes to power, for it is an effective element of control and because the workers themselves will not allow these provisions to disappear. Regards, Greg. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1010] Buzgalin/Kolganov: IMF & Russia
--F5A0386E9F5606C796639A14 As promissed, Here is the Buzgalin&Kolganov article that clarifies some of the roots of the ongoing crisis in Russia! Regards, Greg. Just a note for those concerned with copyright: this article appeared in the Winter 1998 edition of (Socialist)"Alternatives". * Alexandr Buzgalin, Andrei Kolganov THE INFLUENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AND THE INTERNAL CAUSES OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC CRISIS IN RUSSIA The implementation of the so-called radical economic reforms in Russia in the first half of the nineties makes it hard to provide any rational explanation for the policy of obviously deliberate destruction of the industrial, human and other potentials of Russia other than what seems an obvious simple law: gradual radicalization of economic policy to create an economy meeting the "standards" set by our Western "colleagues". It was formulated in a number of theoretical and publicistic publications of right-wing Sovietologists and other experts in the late eighties. Early in 1990, a manifesto of this policy was made public under the title "500 Days" (originally "400 Days"); it had been prepared by Grigory Yavlinsky, an economist little known at the time. That document amazed one by its market radicalism and reckless adventurism by promising absolutely unrealistic deadlines for reform. Nevertheless, the well-orchestrated choir of eulogizers of this adventure sounded more and more loudly. 1. The IMF: What They "Advised" Us Early in 1991, the voice of radical "marketeers" was given a ponderous reinforcement in official documents of the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Experts of these organizations on a commission from the governments of the "Big Seven" compliled a three-volume report entitled "A Study of the Soviet Economy. Volumes 1-3. Paris: OECD Publications Service. February 1991). The greater part of this monumental work contained an analysis of the situation in the Soviet economy; recommendations for its reformation, however, also occupied much space. What did representatives of these prestigious organizations recommend us to do? "...The desired transition to a market economy would be best facilitated by an early, faster and more comprehensive liberalization of prices" (idem, vol. 2, p. 9). That recommendation was obeyed. The recomendations to exlcude the prices of municipal services (including municipal transport), housing rent and electric power from the general price liberalization process were also obeyed. At the initial stage of reform, the government was recommended to import large quantities of staple foods to limit the rise of free prices. That recommendation was also obeyed, without much success in limiting price rises, it is true, thogh food imports ousted much of domestic foodstuffs from the market. The government was recommended to carry out quick privatization of the state sector following price liberalization. At the same time, it was recommended that state-owned enterprises should not be sold at high prices on the plea that a high price paid by a new owner would limit the latter's possibilities for subsequent investments. That recommendation was also obeyed: one half of industry was privatized within two years, and enterprises were sold at give-away prices. In the process of privatization, it was recommended not to place enterprises under collective management by their workers but only to award to them stocks or shares on an individual basis. At the same time, contrary to the world experience of enterprises in full and partial ownership of their workers, it was recommended not to discourage them from free sale of their stocks. That recommendation was fully obeyed, too. It was pointed out in the recommendations that the USSR should increase the share of the manufacturing industries in its exports. However, it was specified there and then that in the short term "it would be more effective to concentrate efforts on expanding exports of energy sources and raw materials, where quicker results are probable" (ibid., vol. 2, p. 61). The Yeltsin government did just that. But petroleum production had started to fall as far as the late eighties. Where was one to take resources for expanding exports? The answer was very simple: domestic prices should be brought close to world prices, the price rise would reduce domestic consumption, and resources for export would become available. The same should be done to the prices of iron and steel and nonferrous metals. Of course, part of the plants would have to be closed down. That recommendation was dutifully obeyed. It was also recommended "to set up a ceiling to wage raises to prevent a wage-price spiral and maintain the minimum wage in order to protect those economically weak in the face of inflation" (idem., vol. 2, p.182). The government successfully coped with
[PEN-L:1009] Re: 3 Articles on Russia - Fred Weir, Reuters
Good question! With things the way they have been since the collapse of the USSR, it's hard to tell who is really in charge if, indeed, there is anyone in charge. For the most part the state has been reduced to a number of skirmishing clans, each trying to to wrestle as much power from the centre as possible. These struggles of the Russian "rulling?" classes have not been without sucess. For instance the coal sector and its concerns have been sucessful in preventing the World Bank-ordered reduction in the level of subsidy from the Federal government. At the regional level, the clans and their socio-political structure truly resembles that of medieval fiefdoms. I'll try to find an article by Aleksandr Buzgalin on this topic. boddhisatva wrote: > C. Schwartz, > > Thanks for the info. You have to admit the old "He's not dead, > he's just vacationing in the dacha" routine is a Russian classic, though. > Who is thought to be running things if Yeltsin is actually as > incapacitated as he appears? Is it Chubaiis? > > > > peace > -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1007] Buzgalin: RUSSIA: CAPITALISMS JURASSIC PARK
orporate structures themselves are still evolving. Their borders are amorphous and mobile. Firms, banks, bureaucrats, and even entire agencies (and sometimes, even the top people in the government) change their orientation, sympathies and antipathies, move from one clan to another, or try to join a number of clan structures. Moreover, most clans are unformed organizationally and un-institutionalized. Gazprom is the exception here; as a rule, it is almost impossible to come up with a definitive definition or a formal description of a clans structure. Second, the clan-corporate structures, in most cases, are characterized by mutual diffusion and flow into one another; this is their distinctive feature, which is specific to transitional societies. Third, clan-corporate structures compete in various ways, non-economic as well as economic. The most important form of struggle between them is informal, non-economic interaction. Forms of the latter may include personal connections, deals, agreements to divide markets and spheres of influence, rules of competition, etc., as well as racketeering, bribery, blackmail and the like. Market competition has only just emerged. It is not simply imperfect (in the sense of the word used in economics textbooks); it is deformed, mutant from birth. It is not so much an interplay of elemental forces, where the one who has lower costs, higher quality, etc., prevails, but a battle between forces which are trying to regulate the market. Each clan tries to regulate the market in its own favor. These clans clash, and the strongest clannot the most competitive productprevails. Its like a sack race -- where it isnt the fastest runner who wins, but the person who can run best inside a sack. Finally, the modified mechanism of plan deals (where the object is no longer directives on planned output, but tax and credit privileges) also plays a substantial role. Fourth, in a transitional economy, the redistribution of the rights and objects of ownership, and together with that, of economic power, takes place very quickly and on a large scale. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been redistributed in the privatization process, and this redistribution makes up the most important form of interaction of clan-corporate structures in Russia. As a result of this interaction, an economy like the Russian economy is formed, where price liberalization has led to inflation and a decline in production, where this decline in production and institutional chaos creates the most favorable environment for the accelerated concentration of money and property, and therefore, economic power, into the hands of a limited circle of clan-corporations, while most workers have lost one-third of their incomes, and virtually all of their savings, social protection, law and order, and stability. * * * This papers rather pessimistic conclusions should not be seen as evidence that our economy has reached an absolute dead-end. First of all, in a few years, as the redistribution of property and power is completed, the largest clan-corporate structures will still have to modernize production, and will find the money (quite limited by Russian standards, barely US$10 billion) for it. But this money will go, not to modernize the economy as a whole, but only to certain spheres, for the most part (if one proceeds from the clans present structure), in the raw-materials sectors. As for such areas as science, education, high technology, etc., hopes that the clans will pay for their modernization will remain unrealized. Second, one can hope that the power of the clan-corporate groups in Russia will be overcome through a qualitative change in property relations and the political systema transition to a real democracy as a new form of economic and political powerwhich could serve as the prerequisite for implementing a strategy for recovery. But this is already another subject. Translated by Mark Eckert -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1004] Re: korea/russia questions
michael perelman wrote: >Korean workers seem to be far more daring than the Russians, except for >the workers located far from centers of power [miners]. Am I wrong >here? May be I could respond to this post? Michael Perelman is right, but only to some extent and a lot of it has to do with the coverage the Russian strikes or other political (I say 'political' for I consider strikes just that) actions receive in the US and many other Western states. Basically, strikes - in every part of the country and by workers in every sphere, with miners dominating - have become so commonplace in Russia that the West does not deem them worthy of coverage. This is a more or less simple reason. There are more complex reasons the strikes are either not covered or, if they are covered, they receive less prominent attention than strikes in, say, Korea. It seems to me, another reason for the lack of coverage of the Russian strikes is that it is more difficult to demonize the Russian workers, who are not yet producing consumer goods on which many Western workers depend (Hyundai, Daewoo, Goldstar/GL Electronics, etc.). This ideological tool for breaking the working class the world over is also not salient in the case of the Russian workers because labour action is usually viewed with less terror by the leaders of the Russian industry, finance and the state. This is primarily because, as I mentioned in my last post: there is not much of value (particularly of value to the West) produced in Russia these days. There is little foreign direct investment which would be effected by labour unrest. Most foreign activity is in the form of speculation, which is why we have been hearing about the financial crisis day and night and not about the unpaid, financially/physically/morally impoverished Russian workers, who have worked in unsafe, often life-threating conditions for the past six years or so. Moreover, because the Russian unions have retained the central feature of the Soviet Unions - namely, they are of conciliatory rather than adversarial nature and act in concord with the paternalistic management - it seems to me, the strikes are resolved quicker than in the capitalist economies and/or workers usually settle for what might appear to us as 'less'. This is probably less because the Russian workers are not daring. The numerous (still quite unsuccessful) attempts to initiate new, more radical unions by some worker activists is evidence of this. But there are more weighty material reasons why many Russian workers continue to rely on old (paternalistic, conciliatory, class-struggle-displacing) union structures: when workers are not paid for months at a time and when the existing unions can provide generous social benefits and consumer goods which the workers can trade on the market for other goods (probably with workers from other enterprises) they are less likely to reject the old unions. So the strikes are more numerous but less prominent in the media, with the workers (except in some cases, like the miners, who are also more geographically remote from the centre) appearing less daring. As mentioned above, this is more or less at the level of appearances, and the corporate media (as well as some alternative media sources that in many cases rely on the big guys for their international news) is largely to blame for this. The Green Left Weekly (http://www.peg.apc.org/~greenleft/) is an excellent alternative media source which, thanks to Renfrey Clarke and Boris Kagarlitsky, has great coverage of events in Russia. Also worthy of consideration is The Hindustan Times (http://www.hindustantimes.com/) where Fred Weir publishes. All the best, Greg. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:1003] Re: 3 Articles on Russia - Fred Weir, Reuters
To answer the following, Yeltsin IS 'incoherent' in more ways than one. He has not been well since at least 1995. Everyone in Russia knows that and jokes about his health (and his manners of speech, which resembles that of a chronic drunk) have become widespread. Nonetheless, he has been seen quite often on Russia's national television; his image makers, it seems, have been working overtime to make him appear youthful, resolute and OFTEN during the past month. He smiles on TV and in newspaper photos as though nothing (with him and the country's economy) was rotten. This idea of psychopathological treatment of the masses through televised mental hygiene sessions by a smiling President makes politics into just another soap opera. I guess, as predicted by modernization theorists, Russia has become just like the U.S.? The bit about not interrupting his vacation was just such a PR stunt; to make it appear as though the economy was under control. In reality, on the day following his announcement that he will not interrupt his holiday he (as well as Chubais and the head of the Central Bank - Dubining) interrupted his(their) vacation(s), returning to Moscow for an important meeting with the IMF officials, including their head honcho in Russia, Odling-Smee. All the best, Greg. boddhisatva wrote: > [snip] > By the way, has anyone actually seen Yeltsin alive and upright > lately? This business of his not wanting to interrupt his vacation is > something I remember from the old Soviet days. From what I've read there > is talk in Russia that Yeltsin is incoherent. I think the guy may have > had a stroke on top of the heart attack. Who knows, while he sits > comatose in the dacha, his crew may be busy setting up Swiss accounts and > safe passage out. Something about the Russian situation makes me want to > be in a mountain cabin with a large, lead-lined basement. > > peace -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:984] Russia: Response of the Working Class
Dear pen-l'rs, Here are the voices of the Russian workers and their position on the CPRF. Greg. * Russian Unions, Communists Disagree Over Strike Demands Moscow, Aug 13 (Interfax) -- Trade Unions will put forward their own slogans, differing from the demands of the Communist Party of Russia (CPRF), during the protest action in the fall, said the secretary of the Russian Federation of Independent Trade Unions Andrey Isayev. Isayev criticized leader of the Communist Party Gennadiy Zyuganov's remarks that "formation of a popular trust government" should become the chief demand of the protest. "Communists think that such a government would be formed under the leadership of the [Communist dominated] State Duma. However, the trade unions have their own attitude to the lower parliamentary house," he said. "Deputies failed to adopt a single socially significant law in the interests of workers. They set up a shamefully low minimum wage level, ignore the demands for enforcing legal responsibility of the employer for overdue wages. At the same time, they push through the anti-trade union law on labor and dutifully vote on all the budgets proposed by the government," he said. "The legislative branch is no less to blame than the executive one for the current situation in the country. It is shameless to expect hungry people to play as extras in the officials' game under the cover of creating a popular trust government," he said. "A complete and unequivocal settlement of wage arrears, changes in the social and economic policy and simultaneous early presidential and Duma elections will become the chief demands of the All-Russian strike which trade unions alone have the right to declare, not political parties," he said. The federation's general council will make a final decision on the issue on August 27.
[PEN-L:983] Russia: Interview with Zyuganov
Dear pen-l'rs, As promissed, here is a transcript of the interview with Gandy Zyuganov, the leader of CPRF. Greg * Radiostantsiya Ekho Moskvy 12 August 1998 [translation for personal use only] Interview with Gennadiy Zyuganov, leader of the Russian Communist Party, by Aleksandr Andreyev -- live [Andreyev] Good afternoon, Gennadiy Andreyevich. [Zyuganov] Good afternoon. [Andreyev] The first question will be about the government and the economic situation. The government is now trying hard to collect taxes and improve the country's economic situation in order to obtain another IMF tranche and further improve the economy. Many laws have to be adopted for this. In your view, will the Duma gather in August to help Kiriyenko's government in this matter? [Zyuganov] There is no denying that the situation is parlous, a very bad one. And this is true not only about financial markets but also about crime that has paralyzed whole streets. Yeltsin has driven everyone up the wall, not only the miners but also the oilmen, not only tramps and unemployed but also businessmen. As regards the government, unfortunately it continues its old policy of squeezing money from a population that has already been robbed four times and from enterprises that have been robbed three times. If only they were concerned about how to support and organize production, that would be one thing. But the money they asked for has been given on the condition that not a kopeck will be paid to the real economy. [passage omitted on possibility of Duma extraordinary meeting to discuss austerity laws; Zyuganov's attitude to Communist Maslyukov joining the government] I asked the government to reveal the conditions on which the IMF is giving us a big loan. You know that I have not received any reply. The Duma asked the same question and got no reply either. Finally we found this document on the Internet in English and translated it into Russian. In it our government pledges to scrap all the social achievements and guarantees that the country has. In fact, Russia has gone over to outside management. It is being run by the IMF, from Washington or anywhere. [passage omitted on arguments against working with the current government; Maslyukov is likely to be sacked from the Communist Part central committee for disobedience; the Semago-Klimentyev election bid in Nizhniy Novgorod] [Andreyev] Let us speak about the events in Afghanistan. The Taleban is approaching CIS borders. They are already on the border with Uzbekistan and, in all likelihood, after they capture yet another pass, they will be at the Tajik border, which is being protected by Russian border guards. In your view, could Russia do anything so that these people suffer no harm and that the CIS remains as it is, without new problems emerging? [Zyuganov] Thank you for this question but I would formulate it somewhat differently. An impeachment commission to remove Yeltsin from power is working now. It is within constitutional norms. The commission has held its first meeting on the Belovezhye conspiracy. And it was proved there that a small number of people -- Yeltsin, [Sergey] Shakhray, [Gennadiy] Burbulis -- did their utmost to destroy a single country, a single security expanse, and a single border for the sake of gratifying their personal ambitions and getting seats in the Kremlin or in other offices and so on. They committed an unprecedented crime of destroying a defense system that was four centuries old and extended from Larva to Kasha. [passage omitted on Zyuganov expanding this theme] It is clear today that all out troubles, including in Central Asia, stem from Belovezhye. Now, let us look at the specific situation. I have just returned from the North Caucasus where I visited several republics. The situation is ominous there. Almost everyone is armed. If this region catches fire, it will be difficult to put it out. Meanwhile, everything is being done to upset the situation in Dagestan, Chechnya, and so on. At the same time, the Taleban is getting right up to Central Asia. The Taleban movement is made up of those who, paid by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, were specifically trained for field fighting in Afghanistan. They are approaching the border. They are Islamic militants and the very fact of their cynical execution of Najibullah confirms this. The world community kept silent whilst our leadership, which at one time saw Najibullah as an ally, made no serious protest. And now they are reaping the whirlwind at their own borders. And this gives out a signal to all Central Asian leaders. If this crosses the river and catches fire there too -- oh! I have been everywhere in that region, including Tajikistan, and know the situation well. A concerted joint reaction by all the leaders should have been voiced some six months ago. The CIS was based on a single defense space, a single border, a single army, and a single secur
[PEN-L:982] Russia is a Peculiar Article, indeed!
the Soviet era (both pre-Gorbachev and Gorbachev) and of the Yeltsin regime. Basically the platform can be summed up as follows: we shall increase (labour) productivity at home (not through Yeltsin/IMF monetary constraint but through a more thorough plan, which includes grater centralisation and "Stalinisation" or production discipline; I was amazed when I read in their programme praises of Stalin for his ability to industialise the country with such stealth in the 1930's); thereby increasing the EXPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS - PRIMARILY OIL AND GAS; thereby acquiring new technology and equipment for the re-equipping of the Russian industrial sector; thereby increasing wholesale domestic productivity and relegating the reliance on the world market to the last instance. Sounds like the Brezhnev/Gorbachev/Yeltsin plan to me! And, as were the previous plans, this one will probably (though not definitely, if the party will not renage on its authoritarian promises) fail. The party's chauvinistic platform, based on references to the Tsar, God, Stalin and the motherland, stressed its undemocratic nature. But, having seen the fruits of was sold to them as "democracy" the workers might be disillusioned with the democratic idea entirely and would rather settle for "great power" politics the CPRF feeds them. Let's hope that the majority of them are not disillusioned by democracy as some of us on this list understand the term. Finally, to give you an example of what the CPRF (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) is all about, I will include in the next two messages 1). an interview with Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the CPRF and 2). the views of the Russian workers on the increasing efforts of the Communists to use the victories of the working class for the party's own political advantage. In solidarity, Greg S. Frances Bolton (PHI) wrote: > On Wed, 19 Aug 1998, Rob Schaap wrote: > > > > But there's something else with which markets may have to reckon in this. > > Unsurprisingly, the fact, as I understand it, that the Commies took 47% of > > the vote in the last Russian elections, and that *with no access to mass > > media channels throughout the election campaign*, got little emphasis in > > Western media at the time. > > > Someone who works on Russia told me that the last election was actually > stolen by Yeltsin. Seems that the percentages at the beginning were > exactly the same as the percentages at the end, which never happens. > > Frances -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:931] 3 Articles on Russia - Fred Weir, Reuters
inin had refused. The central bank declined comment. Yeltsin later named tax service chief Boris Fyodorov as a deputy prime minister responsible for macroeconomics and management of state debt, a Kremlin spokesman said. The government forged its new economic policy during a series of weekend meetings. Kiriyenko huddled with Chubais, Dubinin and Finance Minister Mikhail Zadornov on Saturday, and then won approval on Sunday from Yeltsin, who has been on holiday for the past month. The president, who during a brief public appearance on Friday appeared confused at times and briefly had trouble recognising a top aide, met Kiriyenko again on Monday. The Communist-dominated State Duma lower house of parliament said it would interrupt its summer recess to meet in emergency session on Friday. The government wants the Duma to approve more austerity measures to improve tax collection and boost the ailing economy, which by official statistics is in a decade-long depression. "It is total bankruptcy," said Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov. "We think that it (devaluation) is first of all a blow for the poorest. Prices will jump high, most banks except the biggest will collapse." In separate statements, both the finance minister and the central bank chief said the moves were intended to protect citizens and domestic producers from a market gone haywire. Analysts said the actions amounted to an acknowledgement that the Russian government could no longer defend the rouble. "It's tantamount to devaluation," said Charles Blitzer, chief emerging markets economist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrettein London. "We'll have to see whether the authorities can keep the devaluation controlled or not." "This is a devaluation in progress and is not the end of the story," said Claudio Demolli, emerging markets economist at ABN Amro in London. "The risk is still very much to the downside for the rouble." Russia announced it was halting payments of some foreign debts, by banks and companies, for 90 days and banning foreigners from investing in short-term treasury bills. But a senior Finance Ministry source told Reuters the moratorium did not affect the government's foreign debt. The moratorium nevertheless undermined confidence in Russia's ability to service its debt, triggering a slide in the price of its Eurobonds, traders said. "There are limits to how many times Russia can come to the market and say everything is okay," said one trader. "If it can default once and refuse to admit that it is defaulting, it can do it again." -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:848] More on the Russian Financial Crisis
aign. Burson-Marsteller, which has confirmed its involvement in the project, is one of the biggest public relations companies in the world and has wide experience of working for foreign clients. Discussions are at an early stage but it is envisaged the council will act as a clearing house for information about Russia's financial markets and liaise with the government about how it can communicate its economic message more effectively. The council is also looking to recruit a prominent spokesman who would devise a communications strategy with Burson-Marsteller for "selling" Russia to foreign investors. Charlie Ryan, chief executive of United Financial Group, one of the council members, said the firms had met several times over the past two months to discuss ways of encouraging the development of Russia's financial markets. "All of us have been so competitive with each other that we have not been very good at co-operating. "But there is now a sense that we need an industry association which can represent our views and correct some of the misconceptions out there," he said. The financial council, which includes leading local brokers such as Troika Dialog and MFK Renaissance, as well as international investment banks such as Credit Suisse First Boston, also intends to lobby the government to improve the corporate governance environment within Russia. Abuses of minority shareholder rights have deterred many foreign fund managers from venturing into the Russian market, which has plunged more than two-thirds this year. The Russian government is encouraging the stockbrokers' initiative, although it has not given it any direct support. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
[PEN-L:823] Russian Miners and the Collapsing State
ek rail blockade near the Ural city of Chelyabinsk, a regional official told AFP Wednesday. The suspension of the blockade on a stretch of the vital Trans-Siberian rail artery runs until Saturday, as the miners wait for the government to pay 25 million rubles ($4 million) in unpaid wages. "If the money is not paid, the blockade will go back up," said the spokesman for the regional administration, Pavel Bolchakov. Some 2,000 police continued to lay siege to 100 miners who were poised to block a new section of the Trans-Siberian, said Bolchakov. On Tuesday, a leader of a Russian coal workers' union was taken in for questioning by police in connection with the miners' blockades, a spokesman for the Independent Union of Mineworkers (NPG) said. Aleksander Sergeyev refused to answer questions, saying he would do so only once his union's members and other workers had been paid in full their long-overdue wages and once criminal investigations were launched into the arrears, the spokesman said. The union claims 80,000 members, making it much smaller than the Rosugleprof union which claims the loyalties of most of the industry's 670,000 workers. Sergeyev was escorted by police from his union's Moscow headquarters for questioning as a witness in a criminal investigation launched into the blockade of the Trans-Siberian railway near Chelyabinsk. He was later released. The government, notably Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov who oversees the energy sector, has taken an increasing hard line against the rail blockades, which some officials have described as "terrorism." Nemtsov warned last week that miners who blocked rail lines would find their regional coal industries starved of federal funds. Parts of the line in the Chelyabinsk region remained blocked on Tuesday despite efforts by local officials to reach an accord with the miners and promises to pay long overdue wages. Miners in the region have been blocking parts of the railway since July in protest over wages unpaid for over nine months. Around 200 million rubles ($32.2 million) are owed in unpaid wages. Similar protests have been underway in other parts of Russia for around six months. * #3 Unpaid Worker Kills Accountant, Wounds Boss MOSCOW -- (Reuters) A Russian worker who had not been paid for months shot dead his company's accountant and wounded its director, an official said on Tuesday. A spokesman at the regional governor's office in Volgograd in southern Russia said by telephone that the man, who worked at a local firm that supplies fertilizers, had been told by his boss last Thursday that he was unable to pay him. The employee, who had a criminal record, returned to the director's office later on Thursday with a sawed-off shotgun and shot and wounded him. A woman accountant, who happened to be in the office at the time, was killed accidentally. "He was not drunk. When the police came and took him away, he was asked why he did it. He said: 'Because I had not been paid'," the spokesman said. Many Russians have not been paid for months. The government says low tax revenues have left it short of money to pay workers in the public sector, which includes doctors and teachers. Wage arrears have also piled up at many other companies, including private firms, in a circle of debt in which companies are short of money because the firms they supply cannot pay for their deliveries. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --E46B981C007EC245D9DE4C3E Fellow pen-l'rs, Here are some news regarding the situation with the Russian workers, led by the miners, and their ongoing struggle against the 'reform' agenda of global capital. Of course, the very fact that there is tremendous resistance to these IMF/World Bank-engineered 'austerity measures' (which, it must be noted, have been attempted in Russia for the past 6 years) illustrates boldface the contradictions of global capital, while the fact that they are resisted not only by the workers but also by the indigenous elite, whose economic interests are quite at odds with the interests of the global producers of value and, paradoxically, the all too illegitimate Russian state, exposes the contradictions of imposing 'capitalism from above', in the absence of capitalist production relations. In solidarity, Greg. * #1 Miners Challenge Yeltsin in Campsite Protest MOSCOW -- (Agence France Presse) Several hundred striking miners have been camped for two months outside Russian government headquarters in a protest over pay arrears, which opposition politicians say is a clear warning that ordinary Russians' patience is running out. "I fear a social explosion," said the renowned Russian sociologist Leonid
