Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 02:06:23PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> 
> On Sunday, January 7, 2018 at 3:03:11 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
> >
> > On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 01:52:00PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
> >  wrote: 
> > > 
> > > Can't you appreciate the humor? AG 
> >
> > No - it came across as obtuse. If it was meant to be humour, it backfired. 
> >
> 
> Be honest. Even if you understood my comment as humor, you still would have
> objected, presumably because it offends conventional wisdom concerning what 
> can
> and cannot be said. Let's face it; the First Amendment is dead. AG

Not at all. I appreciate sarcasm and satire as well as the rest.

BTW, from Brent's last comment, it appears he didn't get the "joke" either.


-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, January 7, 2018 at 3:03:11 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 01:52:00PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > Can't you appreciate the humor? AG 
>
> No - it came across as obtuse. If it was meant to be humour, it backfired. 
>

Be honest. Even if you understood my comment as humor, you still would have
objected, presumably because it offends conventional wisdom concerning what 
can
and cannot be said. Let's face it; the First Amendment is dead. AG

>
>
>
> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/7/2018 1:16 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:


When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my
desk.  It read:  THERE IS NO "THEY".


The meaning being "no alien visitations"?  And you know that how? 
Woman's intuition?  AG


Meaning that whatever "they" you had come to my office to complain about 
as causing a problem, it was OUR responsibility to fix it...not to point 
fingers.


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 01:52:00PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> Can't you appreciate the humor? AG

No - it came across as obtuse. If it was meant to be humour, it backfired.



-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, January 7, 2018 at 2:44:05 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 01:16:29PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > 
> > On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 9:02:32 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote: 
> > > When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my desk. 
>  It 
> > > read:  THERE IS NO "THEY". 
> > > 
> > 
> > The meaning being "no alien visitations"?  And you know that how? 
> Woman's 
> > intuition?  AG 
> > 
>
> C'mon Alan, surely you would recognise this as an exhortion to own 
> your problems and to be responsible for what you do. 
>

Can't you appreciate the humor? AG

>
> There's a big difference between "they should do bla" and "we should 
> do bla". The former might refer to (say) your local government council 
> - and the latter might refer to society in general. 
>

??? 

>
> Contrast: "They should do something about climate change" vs "We 
> should do something about climate change". 
>
> Cheers 
> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Jan 07, 2018 at 01:16:29PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> 
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 9:02:32 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
> > When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my desk.  It 
> > read:  THERE IS NO "THEY".
> >
> 
> The meaning being "no alien visitations"?  And you know that how? Woman's 
> intuition?  AG
> 

C'mon Alan, surely you would recognise this as an exhortion to own
your problems and to be responsible for what you do.

There's a big difference between "they should do bla" and "we should
do bla". The former might refer to (say) your local government council
- and the latter might refer to society in general.

Contrast: "They should do something about climate change" vs "We
should do something about climate change".

Cheers
-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 9:02:32 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 7:49 PM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:34:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote: 
>>
>>
>>
>> On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote: 
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>
>>> That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator 
 from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
 inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
 interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
 program was not started because of some serious military concern.

 LC

>>>
>>> I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean 
>>> it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to 
>>> visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
>>>
>>>
>>> What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend 
>>> on this.
>>>
>>
>> And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG
>>
>>
>> I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> If they have such a dim view of what they do, that is, what motivates 
> them, why did you continue to work for them
>
>
> When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my desk.  It 
> read:  THERE IS NO "THEY".
>

The meaning being "no alien visitations"?  And you know that how? Woman's 
intuition?  AG

>
> Brent
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:49:20 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com 
wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:34:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote: 
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>
>>> That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator 
 from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
 inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
 interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
 program was not started because of some serious military concern.

 LC

>>>
>>> I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean 
>>> it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to 
>>> visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
>>>
>>>
>>> What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend 
>>> on this.
>>>
>>
>> And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG
>>
>>
>> I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> If they have such a dim view of what they do, that is, what motivates 
> them, why did you continue to work for them -- to line your pocket? AG 
>

I suppose I owe you an apology. I don't think you worked for the military 
for purely financial reasons. I assume that like most others in the 
military or work for it, that patriotic motives prevail. 
I therefore don't believe that the study of possible alien visitations was 
solely motivated by the fact that funding was provided. I think you would 
agree that what you earlier stated in rebuttal, 
was an excessively cynical view -- at the service of denial of what's 
possibly a hidden reality. The fact is that flying vehicles with very 
unusual characteristics, apparently well in excess of 
our present technology, are sighted on a fairly regular basis, visually by 
lay and professional observers, and often simultaneously on radar. AG

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[David Nyman]

On 4 Jan 2018 20:16, "Lawrence Crowell" 
wrote:

On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 1:44:26 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:11:28 AM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:26:33 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> Insofar as you proceed from ignorance by refusing to view a short video,
>>> you have the mistaken impression that those witnesses find some religious
>>> solace in their belief of an alien visitation. Anyway, who cares what some
>>> religious zealots think about UFO's. I am merely laying out a case for the
>>> existence of alien visitations. AG
>>>
>>
>> I had sometime back a person call me ignorant for not wanting to watch a
>> video on ancient alien astronauts --- Eric von Daniken rubbish. I more
>> recently had somebody call me foolish for wishing to remain ignorant of the
>> good news of Jesus etc. So maybe ignorance is a relative term. I am
>> ignorant of what it is like to experience heroin, and I prefer to keep it
>> that way. I am sorry, but I do not have a great interest in eye witness
>> testimony over obscure events 70 years ago.
>>
>> LC
>>
>
> Imagination challenged. If the crash occurred, it's the tip of the
> iceberg; not to say numerous crashes but an on-going presence, which is
> what the project manager  essentially concluded in his comments. Forget it.
> Enjoy your calculations of low densities. And Brent and Clark can enjoy
> their erroneous statements about eye-witness reports. They must know that
> context is important in assessing the value of eye witness reports, but
> refuse to acknowledge same. AG
>

This  is a pretty imaginative
take on the subject.


Blimey! I turned into a Scotsman myself almost 70 years ago. I always
wondered why.

David


LC

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVbb6pZLfzU

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 1:44:26 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:11:28 AM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:26:33 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>> Insofar as you proceed from ignorance by refusing to view a short video, 
>>> you have the mistaken impression that those witnesses find some religious 
>>> solace in their belief of an alien visitation. Anyway, who cares what some 
>>> religious zealots think about UFO's. I am merely laying out a case for the 
>>> existence of alien visitations. AG 
>>>
>>
>> I had sometime back a person call me ignorant for not wanting to watch a 
>> video on ancient alien astronauts --- Eric von Daniken rubbish. I more 
>> recently had somebody call me foolish for wishing to remain ignorant of the 
>> good news of Jesus etc. So maybe ignorance is a relative term. I am 
>> ignorant of what it is like to experience heroin, and I prefer to keep it 
>> that way. I am sorry, but I do not have a great interest in eye witness 
>> testimony over obscure events 70 years ago.
>>
>> LC 
>>
>
> Imagination challenged. If the crash occurred, it's the tip of the 
> iceberg; not to say numerous crashes but an on-going presence, which is 
> what the project manager  essentially concluded in his comments. Forget it. 
> Enjoy your calculations of low densities. And Brent and Clark can enjoy 
> their erroneous statements about eye-witness reports. They must know that 
> context is important in assessing the value of eye witness reports, but 
> refuse to acknowledge same. AG 
>

This  is a pretty imaginative 
take on the subject.

LC

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVbb6pZLfzU

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:11:28 AM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:26:33 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Insofar as you proceed from ignorance by refusing to view a short video, 
>> you have the mistaken impression that those witnesses find some religious 
>> solace in their belief of an alien visitation. Anyway, who cares what some 
>> religious zealots think about UFO's. I am merely laying out a case for the 
>> existence of alien visitations. AG 
>>
>
> I had sometime back a person call me ignorant for not wanting to watch a 
> video on ancient alien astronauts --- Eric von Daniken rubbish. I more 
> recently had somebody call me foolish for wishing to remain ignorant of the 
> good news of Jesus etc. So maybe ignorance is a relative term. I am 
> ignorant of what it is like to experience heroin, and I prefer to keep it 
> that way. I am sorry, but I do not have a great interest in eye witness 
> testimony over obscure events 70 years ago.
>
> LC 
>

Imagination challenged. If the crash occurred, it's the tip of the iceberg; 
not to say numerous crashes but an on-going presence, which is what the 
project manager  essentially concluded in his comments. Forget it. Enjoy 
your calculations of low densities. And Brent and Clark can enjoy their 
erroneous statements about eye-witness reports. They must know that context 
is important in assessing the value of eye witness reports, but refuse to 
acknowledge same. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 8:26:33 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
> Insofar as you proceed from ignorance by refusing to view a short video, 
> you have the mistaken impression that those witnesses find some religious 
> solace in their belief of an alien visitation. Anyway, who cares what some 
> religious zealots think about UFO's. I am merely laying out a case for the 
> existence of alien visitations. AG 
>

I had sometime back a person call me ignorant for not wanting to watch a 
video on ancient alien astronauts --- Eric von Daniken rubbish. I more 
recently had somebody call me foolish for wishing to remain ignorant of the 
good news of Jesus etc. So maybe ignorance is a relative term. I am 
ignorant of what it is like to experience heroin, and I prefer to keep it 
that way. I am sorry, but I do not have a great interest in eye witness 
testimony over obscure events 70 years ago.

LC 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Thursday, January 4, 2018 at 5:20:32 AM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:06:05 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:02:25 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>>
>>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 11:33:04 AM UTC-6, John Clark wrote:

 On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell <
 goldenfield...@gmail.com> wrote:
  

> ​> ​
> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely 
> improbable fluke .
>

 ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
  

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 

 ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible 
 Scenario for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes 
 in, that's when it gets good.

>>>
>>> I have seen Ed Turner talk at conferences. The talk is interesting and 
>>> it does illustrate one of two things. The first is the spatial extent of 
>>> the universe is infinite 
>>>
>>
>> The finite age of the universe implies otherwise; as does the fact that 
>> the CMB comes in from all directions. IMO, it's a closed, finite 
>> hyperspace; not infinite. AG
>>
>
> Inflationary cosmology addresses this problem. The rapid expansion of the 
> universe during a high energy vacuum transition is what results in 
> antipodal regions of the universe having the same causal origins. I wrote a 
> paper on how inflation as a quantum critical phase transition could do this 
> for an infinitely large spatial region in an FLRW/AdS spacetime. 
>  
>
>>
>> so that even the most improbable event or set of configurations must 
>>> occur. The second is this illustrates the need for some additional 
>>> mechanism for the development of pre-biotic chemistry that leads to 
>>> biology. The first of these is in the affirmative of the implausibility of 
>>> life. It is interesting this might serve as evidence for an infinite 
>>> universe. Of course there will be a need for continued research to find a 
>>> mechanism that bridges this gap. For that matter we really do not 
>>> understand how nucleic acids can form outside a biological context. I have 
>>> thought there might be some sort of quantum transition in shape from 
>>> related molecules. 
>>>
>>> It is plausible that prebiotic chemistry exists on Mars or in the ocean 
>>> interior of Jovian and Cronian moons. Maybe a spacecraft with an aerogel 
>>> might fly through these geyser plumes and return samples. We might find 
>>> prebiotic chemistry or even biology elsewhere in the solar system. Evidence 
>>> for life on distant extrasolar planets could be sought be looking for 
>>> planets containing oxygen and methane.  Success in finding prebiotic 
>>> chemistry or understanding abiogenesis means we have lost some evidence or 
>>> argument for an infinite cosmos. Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in 
>>> the universe might in some ways be useful and interesting in itself. It 
>>> will certainly be interesting to see how this works out.
>>>
>>> The great filter could also mean we happen to be the first intelligent 
>>> life form in this galaxy. However, given behavior on Earth (think of Trump 
>>> arguing he has a bigger nuclear button than Kim Jong Un of N Korea) it 
>>> could point to the strong prospect for self-extermination of ETIs. Global 
>>> warming and other issues compound that prospect. 
>>>
>>> I suppose what I find depressing about the UFO stuff, along with ancient 
>>> alien astronauts etc, is it is an idea that we can appeal to some higher 
>>> beings to answer our questions. It is similar to religion in that way. 
>>> Religion promises ultimate knowledge in the next life or with the coming 
>>> great day of God. We can find ultimate enlightenment when the space beings 
>>> out there finally come down to reveal themselves. 
>>>
>>
>> No evidence that's the plan of the aliens. They seem too ugly to be the 
>> basis for super natural beings who some are waiting for. AG
>>
>
> Uhmm disconnect --- this is not a plan of aliens but rather ideas people 
> have about UFOs. The subject borders on religion, and L Ron Hubbard even 
> started the religion of Scientology.
>
> LC
>

Insofar as you proceed from ignorance by refusing to view a short video, 
you have the mistaken impression that those witnesses find some religious 
solace in their belief of an alien visitation. Anyway, who cares what some 
religious zealots think about UFO's. I am merely laying out a case for the 
existence of alien visitations. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:06:05 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:02:25 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 11:33:04 AM UTC-6, John Clark wrote:
>>>
>>> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell <
>>> goldenfield...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>  
>>>
 ​> ​
 We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable 
 fluke .

>>>
>>> ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
>>>  
>>>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 
>>>
>>> ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario 
>>> for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's 
>>> when it gets good.
>>>
>>
>> I have seen Ed Turner talk at conferences. The talk is interesting and it 
>> does illustrate one of two things. The first is the spatial extent of the 
>> universe is infinite 
>>
>
> The finite age of the universe implies otherwise; as does the fact that 
> the CMB comes in from all directions. IMO, it's a closed, finite 
> hyperspace; not infinite. AG
>

Inflationary cosmology addresses this problem. The rapid expansion of the 
universe during a high energy vacuum transition is what results in 
antipodal regions of the universe having the same causal origins. I wrote a 
paper on how inflation as a quantum critical phase transition could do this 
for an infinitely large spatial region in an FLRW/AdS spacetime. 
 

>
> so that even the most improbable event or set of configurations must 
>> occur. The second is this illustrates the need for some additional 
>> mechanism for the development of pre-biotic chemistry that leads to 
>> biology. The first of these is in the affirmative of the implausibility of 
>> life. It is interesting this might serve as evidence for an infinite 
>> universe. Of course there will be a need for continued research to find a 
>> mechanism that bridges this gap. For that matter we really do not 
>> understand how nucleic acids can form outside a biological context. I have 
>> thought there might be some sort of quantum transition in shape from 
>> related molecules. 
>>
>> It is plausible that prebiotic chemistry exists on Mars or in the ocean 
>> interior of Jovian and Cronian moons. Maybe a spacecraft with an aerogel 
>> might fly through these geyser plumes and return samples. We might find 
>> prebiotic chemistry or even biology elsewhere in the solar system. Evidence 
>> for life on distant extrasolar planets could be sought be looking for 
>> planets containing oxygen and methane.  Success in finding prebiotic 
>> chemistry or understanding abiogenesis means we have lost some evidence or 
>> argument for an infinite cosmos. Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in 
>> the universe might in some ways be useful and interesting in itself. It 
>> will certainly be interesting to see how this works out.
>>
>> The great filter could also mean we happen to be the first intelligent 
>> life form in this galaxy. However, given behavior on Earth (think of Trump 
>> arguing he has a bigger nuclear button than Kim Jong Un of N Korea) it 
>> could point to the strong prospect for self-extermination of ETIs. Global 
>> warming and other issues compound that prospect. 
>>
>> I suppose what I find depressing about the UFO stuff, along with ancient 
>> alien astronauts etc, is it is an idea that we can appeal to some higher 
>> beings to answer our questions. It is similar to religion in that way. 
>> Religion promises ultimate knowledge in the next life or with the coming 
>> great day of God. We can find ultimate enlightenment when the space beings 
>> out there finally come down to reveal themselves. 
>>
>
> No evidence that's the plan of the aliens. They seem too ugly to be the 
> basis for super natural beings who some are waiting for. AG
>

Uhmm disconnect --- this is not a plan of aliens but rather ideas people 
have about UFOs. The subject borders on religion, and L Ron Hubbard even 
started the religion of Scientology.

LC

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Telmo Menezes]

On Thu, Jan 4, 2018 at 5:02 AM, Brent Meeker  wrote:
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 7:49 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:34:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:

 That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator
 from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big
 inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is
 interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This
 program was not started because of some serious military concern.

 LC
>>>
>>>
>>> I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean
>>> it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to
>>> visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
>>>
>>>
>>> What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend
>>> on this.
>>
>>
>> And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG
>>
>>
>> I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.
>>
>> Brent
>
>
> If they have such a dim view of what they do, that is, what motivates them,
> why did you continue to work for them
>
>
> When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my desk.  It
> read:  THERE IS NO "THEY".

That is what THEY want you to think!

Telmo.

> Brent
>
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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 7:49 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:



On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:34:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:



On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:



On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:



On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:


That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry
Reid, Senator from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow,
who is advancing the idea of big inflated habitable
modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is
interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to
investigate this. This program was not started because
of some serious military concern.

LC


I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which
doesn't mean it's considered a national security threat.
Anyway, we can't be subject to visitations since your
calculations are dispositive. AG


What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have
funding to spend on this.


And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG


I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.

Brent


If they have such a dim view of what they do, that is, what motivates 
them, why did you continue to work for them


When I was a Branch Head there was a sign on the wall above my desk.  It 
read:  THERE IS NO "THEY".


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:34:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote: 
>>
>>
>>
>> On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>> That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator 
>>> from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
>>> inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
>>> interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
>>> program was not started because of some serious military concern.
>>>
>>> LC
>>>
>>
>> I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean 
>> it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to 
>> visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
>>
>>
>> What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend 
>> on this.
>>
>
> And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG
>
>
> I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.
>
> Brent
>

If they have such a dim view of what they do, that is, what motivates them, 
why did you continue to work for them -- to line your pocket? AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 6:00 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:



On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:



On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:


That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid,
Senator from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is
advancing the idea of big inflated habitable modules in
space, this program germinated. Bigelow is interested in UFO
stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This program
was not started because of some serious military concern.

LC


I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't
mean it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't
be subject to visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG


What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to
spend on this.


And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG


I worked for the Pentagon for 52yrs.  I know how they think.

Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 4:45:21 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 10:00 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
>
> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 9:21 PM,  wrote:
>
> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>>
>>
>>> ​>> ​
>>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE 
>>> IS.  
>>>
>>
>> ​> ​
>> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 
>>
>
> ​I agree it is brilliant and accurate, eyewitness evanesce is indeed the 
> least scientific evidence there is, and this is not just true for flying 
> saucer studies, its true for everything. 
>
>
> The only testimony worse than eyewitness, is eyewitness long after the 
> fact.  SKEPTIC had an article on this point today: 
>
>
> https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/trial-by-therapy-jerry-sandusky-case-revisited/
>

Again, you fail to take context into account. Generally, I find you to be a 
careful thinker, but here you're failing badly. Presumably, you recall the 
days your children were born, and that was long after the facts. AG 

>
>
> Brent
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:02:25 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 11:33:04 AM UTC-6, John Clark wrote:
>>
>> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell <
>> goldenfield...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>  
>>
>>> ​> ​
>>> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable 
>>> fluke .
>>>
>>
>> ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
>>  
>>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 
>>
>> ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario 
>> for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's 
>> when it gets good.
>>
>
> I have seen Ed Turner talk at conferences. The talk is interesting and it 
> does illustrate one of two things. The first is the spatial extent of the 
> universe is infinite 
>

The finite age of the universe implies otherwise; as does the fact that the 
CMB comes in from all directions. IMO, it's a closed, finite hyperspace; 
not infinite. AG

so that even the most improbable event or set of configurations must occur. 
> The second is this illustrates the need for some additional mechanism for 
> the development of pre-biotic chemistry that leads to biology. The first of 
> these is in the affirmative of the implausibility of life. It is 
> interesting this might serve as evidence for an infinite universe. Of 
> course there will be a need for continued research to find a mechanism that 
> bridges this gap. For that matter we really do not understand how nucleic 
> acids can form outside a biological context. I have thought there might be 
> some sort of quantum transition in shape from related molecules. 
>
> It is plausible that prebiotic chemistry exists on Mars or in the ocean 
> interior of Jovian and Cronian moons. Maybe a spacecraft with an aerogel 
> might fly through these geyser plumes and return samples. We might find 
> prebiotic chemistry or even biology elsewhere in the solar system. Evidence 
> for life on distant extrasolar planets could be sought be looking for 
> planets containing oxygen and methane.  Success in finding prebiotic 
> chemistry or understanding abiogenesis means we have lost some evidence or 
> argument for an infinite cosmos. Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in 
> the universe might in some ways be useful and interesting in itself. It 
> will certainly be interesting to see how this works out.
>
> The great filter could also mean we happen to be the first intelligent 
> life form in this galaxy. However, given behavior on Earth (think of Trump 
> arguing he has a bigger nuclear button than Kim Jong Un of N Korea) it 
> could point to the strong prospect for self-extermination of ETIs. Global 
> warming and other issues compound that prospect. 
>
> I suppose what I find depressing about the UFO stuff, along with ancient 
> alien astronauts etc, is it is an idea that we can appeal to some higher 
> beings to answer our questions. It is similar to religion in that way. 
> Religion promises ultimate knowledge in the next life or with the coming 
> great day of God. We can find ultimate enlightenment when the space beings 
> out there finally come down to reveal themselves. 
>

No evidence that's the plan of the aliens. They seem too ugly to be the 
basis for super natural beings who some are waiting for. AG

> It is a bit like this song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XR2oct3zeTM 
> --- it starts out alright but it actually gets kind of dull.
>
> LC
>
>  
>
>>
>> ​> ​
>>> Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere 
>>> powered mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not say these 
>>> things are impossible, but they seem very implausible.
>>>
>>
>> I would say its very
>> ​ ​
>> implausible
>> ​ ​
>> that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen one 
>> by now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it extremely 
>> unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point 
>> ​where ​
>> they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is if 
>> that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it through the 
>> obstacle, or 
>> ​if the roadblock is​
>>  in ou
>> ​r​
>> future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson
>> ​ ​
>> calls this "The Great Filter".
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter 
>> 
>>
>> ​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to a 
>> first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same level 
>> of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson Spheres and 
>> lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent life must be 
>> common in the universe but soon after a civilization reaches the point 
>> we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it comes to a dead halt.  
>>
>>  John K 

Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 3:43:14 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
> That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator from 
>> Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
>> inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
>> interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
>> program was not started because of some serious military concern.
>>
>> LC
>>
>
> I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean 
> it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to 
> visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
>
>
> What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend 
> on this.
>

And you know that how? Woman's intuition? AG

>
> Brent
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 6:50:39 PM UTC-6, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 2:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in the universe might in some ways be 
> useful and interesting in itself.
>
>
> Proving a negative over an infinite field sounds like a fools errand.
>
> Brent
>

We of course have the black swan problem, and this is compounded with life 
in the universe because of scale. Suppose in time we make a survey of every 
possible observable planet in this galaxy (probably up to 100 billion) and 
find no signature of life in their atmospheres, such as oxygen plus 
methane. We also find after considerable effort no life or even prebiotic 
chemistry in the solar system. We might not be able to prove there is none 
anywhere, but this looks suspiciously like a black swan. 

LC
 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 2:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in the universe might in some 
ways be useful and interesting in itself.


Proving a negative over an infinite field sounds like a fools errand.

Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[John Clark]

On Wed, Jan 3, 2018 at 6:31 PM, Brent Meeker  wrote:

​> ​
> It doesn't have to be a disaster.  It might just be that the lesson of
> relativity becomes widely appreciated, that the universe is large and the
> speed limit is low.
>

To a super civilization one von
​
Neumann probe
​
would be dirt cheap, if
​we ​
make the ultra conservative assumption that ET can't send space
​
vehicles any faster than we can
​
then there
​could still
be a
​
a von
​
Neumann probe
​
around
​
every star in the Galaxy
​
in less than 50 million years,
​
just a blink of an eye in a universe 13.8 billion years old,
​and ​
after that it would be a simple step to reshape the
​entire ​
galaxy beyond recognition. If ET exists he wouldn't be just a few decades
ahead of us like the silly flying saucier people,
​ET would​
 be geological ages ahead of us and you wouldn't need Roswell to figure out
alien intelligence exists and you wouldn't need huge telescopes either, all
you'd need to do is glance at the night sky.


> ​> ​
> Jason imagines superintelligence retreating into exploration by simulation
>

​They'd still need matter to make computers and they'd still need energy to
run them.

John K Clark  ​

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 5:31:41 PM UTC-6, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/3/2018 9:33 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell  > wrote:
>  
>
>> ​> ​
>> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable 
>> fluke .
>>
>
> ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
>  
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 
>
> ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario 
> for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's 
> when it gets good.
>
> ​> ​
>> Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere powered 
>> mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not say these things 
>> are impossible, but they seem very implausible.
>>
>
> I would say its very 
> ​ ​
> implausible 
> ​ ​
> that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen one 
> by now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it extremely 
> unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point 
> ​where ​
> they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is if 
> that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it through the 
> obstacle, or 
> ​if the roadblock is​
>  in ou 
> ​r​
> future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson 
> ​ ​
> calls this "The Great Filter".
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
>
> ​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to a 
> first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same level 
> of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson Spheres and 
> lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent life must be 
> common in the universe but soon after a civilization reaches the point 
> we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it comes to a dead halt.  
>
>
> It doesn't have to be a disaster.  It might just be that the lesson of 
> relativity becomes widely appreciated, that the universe is large and the 
> speed limit is low.  Jason imagines superintelligence retreating into 
> exploration by simulation (which implies that we are a simulation...and 
> they are too) but may intelligence doesn't become that 'super' and just has 
> to hang around Earth doing what it can with some computer aid and some 
> solar system exploration and terra forming.
>
> Brent
>

The prospects for ETI or IGUS may just be far more limited. Even a computer 
the size of Jupiter could not simulate a cosmology. To simulate a cosmology 
or universe you need a universe worth of quantum information, or just a 
universe to start with. ETs might colonize their solar system, just as we 
may convert asteroids into inverted pseudo-planets or O'Neil colonies. Yet 
the speed of light is most probably a fundamental barrier and we will not 
have the Star Trek or Star Wars sort of reality of warp driving around. 

LC

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 10:00 AM, John Clark wrote:


On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 9:21 PM, > wrote:


On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:


​>> ​
**EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE
EVIDENCE THERE IS.


​> ​
Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG


​I agree it is brilliant and accurate, eyewitness evanesce is indeed 
the least scientific evidence there is, and this is not just true for 
flying saucer studies, its true for everything.


The only testimony worse than eyewitness, is eyewitness long after the 
fact.  SKEPTIC had an article on this point today:


https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/trial-by-therapy-jerry-sandusky-case-revisited/

Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 9:33 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell 
>wrote:


​> ​
We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely
improbable fluke .


​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg

​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible 
Scenario for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes 
in, that's when it gets good.


​> ​
Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere
powered mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not
say these things are impossible, but they seem very implausible.


I would say its very
​ ​
implausible
​ ​
that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen 
one by now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it 
extremely unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point

​where ​
they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is 
if that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it 
through the obstacle, or

​if the roadblock is​
 in ou
​r​
future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson
​ ​
calls this "The Great Filter".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to 
a first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same 
level of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson 
Spheres and lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent 
life must be common in the universe but soon after a civilization 
reaches the point we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it 
comes to a dead halt.


It doesn't have to be a disaster.  It might just be that the lesson of 
relativity becomes widely appreciated, that the universe is large and 
the speed limit is low.  Jason imagines superintelligence retreating 
into exploration by simulation (which implies that we are a 
simulation...and they are too) but may intelligence doesn't become that 
'super' and just has to hang around Earth doing what it can with some 
computer aid and some solar system exploration and terra forming.


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/3/2018 8:44 AM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:


That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid,
Senator from Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing
the idea of big inflated habitable modules in space, this program
germinated. Bigelow is interested in UFO stuff and wanted a
program to investigate this. This program was not started because
of some serious military concern.

LC


I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean 
it's considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be 
subject to visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG


What the Pentagon is taking seriously is that they have funding to spend 
on this.


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 11:33:04 AM UTC-6, John Clark wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell  > wrote:
>  
>
>> ​> ​
>> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable 
>> fluke .
>>
>
> ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
>  
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 
>
> ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario 
> for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's 
> when it gets good.
>

I have seen Ed Turner talk at conferences. The talk is interesting and it 
does illustrate one of two things. The first is the spatial extent of the 
universe is infinite so that even the most improbable event or set of 
configurations must occur. The second is this illustrates the need for some 
additional mechanism for the development of pre-biotic chemistry that leads 
to biology. The first of these is in the affirmative of the implausibility 
of life. It is interesting this might serve as evidence for an infinite 
universe. Of course there will be a need for continued research to find a 
mechanism that bridges this gap. For that matter we really do not 
understand how nucleic acids can form outside a biological context. I have 
thought there might be some sort of quantum transition in shape from 
related molecules. 

It is plausible that prebiotic chemistry exists on Mars or in the ocean 
interior of Jovian and Cronian moons. Maybe a spacecraft with an aerogel 
might fly through these geyser plumes and return samples. We might find 
prebiotic chemistry or even biology elsewhere in the solar system. Evidence 
for life on distant extrasolar planets could be sought be looking for 
planets containing oxygen and methane.  Success in finding prebiotic 
chemistry or understanding abiogenesis means we have lost some evidence or 
argument for an infinite cosmos. Finding absolutely no life elsewhere in 
the universe might in some ways be useful and interesting in itself. It 
will certainly be interesting to see how this works out.

The great filter could also mean we happen to be the first intelligent life 
form in this galaxy. However, given behavior on Earth (think of Trump 
arguing he has a bigger nuclear button than Kim Jong Un of N Korea) it 
could point to the strong prospect for self-extermination of ETIs. Global 
warming and other issues compound that prospect. 

I suppose what I find depressing about the UFO stuff, along with ancient 
alien astronauts etc, is it is an idea that we can appeal to some higher 
beings to answer our questions. It is similar to religion in that way. 
Religion promises ultimate knowledge in the next life or with the coming 
great day of God. We can find ultimate enlightenment when the space beings 
out there finally come down to reveal themselves. It is a bit like this 
song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XR2oct3zeTM --- it starts out alright 
but it actually gets kind of dull.

LC

 

>
> ​> ​
>> Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere powered 
>> mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not say these things 
>> are impossible, but they seem very implausible.
>>
>
> I would say its very
> ​ ​
> implausible
> ​ ​
> that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen one 
> by now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it extremely 
> unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point 
> ​where ​
> they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is if 
> that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it through the 
> obstacle, or 
> ​if the roadblock is​
>  in ou
> ​r​
> future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson
> ​ ​
> calls this "The Great Filter".
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter 
> 
>
> ​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to a 
> first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same level 
> of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson Spheres and 
> lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent life must be 
> common in the universe but soon after a civilization reaches the point 
> we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it comes to a dead halt.  
>
>  John K Clark
>
>
>
>
> ​
>
>>
>>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 10:33:04 AM UTC-7, John Clark wrote:
>
> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell  > wrote:
>  
>
>> ​> ​
>> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable 
>> fluke .
>>
>
> ​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​
>  
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg 
>
> ​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario 
> for Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's 
> when it gets good.
>
> ​> ​
>> Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere powered 
>> mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not say these things 
>> are impossible, but they seem very implausible.
>>
>
> I would say its very
> ​ ​
> implausible
> ​ ​
> that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen one 
> by now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it extremely 
> unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point 
> ​where ​
> they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is if 
> that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it through the 
> obstacle, or 
> ​if the roadblock is​
>  in ou
> ​r​
> future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson
> ​ ​
> calls this "The Great Filter".
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
>
> ​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to a 
> first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same level 
> of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson Spheres and 
> lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent life must be 
> common in the universe but soon after a civilization reaches the point 
> we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it comes to a dead halt.  
>

*You are schizoid when it comes to what is reasonable, believable. On the 
one hand, you think it's totally plausible for Joe the Plumber to create 
possibly uncountable universes, each with a copy of himself, inclusive of 
his memories, simply by going into **a lab and doing a single outcome 
double slit experiment, whereas on the other hand, the idea that aliens 
might be real close you summarily dismiss, They could come from a planet 
orbiting a brown dwarf closer than Alpha Centauri, which we have yet to 
detect; or maybe from a local star system. I have offered credible, albeit 
arguable, witnesses about the Roswell event. On the other hand, there are 
no witnesses, and never will be, of your many worlds. AG *

*JOHN K CLARK*

>
>
>
>
> ​
>
>>
>>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 11:00:51 AM UTC-7, John Clark wrote:
>
>
> On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 9:21 PM,  wrote:
>
> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>>
>>
>>> ​>> ​
>>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE 
>>> IS.  
>>>
>>
>> ​> ​
>> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 
>>
>
> ​I agree it is brilliant and accurate, eyewitness evanesce is indeed the 
> least scientific evidence there is, and this is not just true for flying 
> saucer studies, its true for everything. 
>
> John K Clark  ​
>  
>

You are obtuse to context. If you witness a woman giving birth, would your 
testimony be considered unreliable, or "unscientific"? AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[John Clark]

On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 9:21 PM,  wrote:

On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>
>
>> ​>> ​
>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE
>> IS.
>>
>
> ​> ​
> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG
>

​I agree it is brilliant and accurate, eyewitness evanesce is indeed the
least scientific evidence there is, and this is not just true for flying
saucer studies, its true for everything.

John K Clark  ​

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[John Clark]

On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 4:02 PM, Lawrence Crowell <
goldenfieldquaterni...@gmail.com> wrote:


> ​> ​
> We may in fact be little more than a vast almost infinitely improbable
> fluke .
>

​There is a excellent talk on that very subject at :​


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt6n6Tu1beg

​It's called "*Improbable Life:* *An Unappealing But Plausible Scenario for
Life's Origin on Earth*". Start looking about 3 minutes in, that's when it
gets good.

​> ​
> Extreme intelligent systems in the universe, such as Dyson sphere powered
> mega brain/computers, are very speculative. I would not say these things
> are impossible, but they seem very implausible.
>

I would say its very
​ ​
implausible
​ ​
that Dyson Spheres actually exist because it they did we'd have seen one by
now and we don't. There must be some roadblock that makes it extremely
unlikely for intelligence to ever reach the point
​where ​
they can engage in engineering on a cosmic scale; the only unknown is if
that roadblock is in our past and we are the first to make it through the
obstacle, or
​if the roadblock is​
 in ou
​r​
future and doom awaits.  Robin Hanson
​ ​
calls this "The Great Filter".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

​That's why it would be so depressing if the Roswell crap was real; to a
first approximation the mundane flying saucer people are at the same level
of technologic development that we are in now (hence no Dyson Spheres and
lousy spaceships that are prone to crash) so intelligent life must be
common in the universe but soon after a civilization reaches the point
we're in now a disaster of some sort happens and it comes to a dead halt.

 John K Clark




​

>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:28:18 AM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
>
>
> On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:54:53 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 7:21:40 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com 
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:



 On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
 wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish 
> wrote:
>>
>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>> > 
>> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire 
>> from 
>> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>>
>> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
>> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
>> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a 
>> video, the 
>> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something 
>> new, 
>> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>>
>> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me 
>> in 
>> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
>> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
>> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
>> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
>> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the 
>> remainder. 
>>
>> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
>> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>>
>> Cheers 
>>
>
> Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of 
> visitation issue will
> radically change. AG 
>
>>
>>
 **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE 
 IS.  

>>>
>>> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 
>>>
>>
>> *What you fail to grasp is that eyewitness testimony can be absolutely 
>> accurate or completely worthless, depending on the circumstance or context. 
>> Those who unthinkingly endorse your pov are just showing their foolish 
>> bias, in effect asserting that aliens haven't visited because of their 
>> reliance on ignorance. That a secret black budget existed at least until 
>> 2012 to further investigate this issue, shows that the Pentagon has taken 
>> it seriously. In recent public statements, the director of that program 
>> claims it continues. AG*
>>
>
> That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator from 
> Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
> inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
> interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
> program was not started because of some serious military concern.
>
> LC
>

I wrote the Pentagon is taking the issue seriously, which doesn't mean it's 
considered a national security threat. Anyway, we can't be subject to 
visitations since your calculations are dispositive. AG
 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 at 8:54:53 AM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
wrote:
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 7:21:40 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>>> wrote:



 On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish 
 wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
> > 
> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire 
> from 
> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>
> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a 
> video, the 
> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>
> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me 
> in 
> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the 
> remainder. 
>
> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>
> Cheers 
>

 Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation 
 issue will
 radically change. AG 

>
>
>>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE 
>>> IS.  
>>>
>>
>> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 
>>
>
> *What you fail to grasp is that eyewitness testimony can be absolutely 
> accurate or completely worthless, depending on the circumstance or context. 
> Those who unthinkingly endorse your pov are just showing their foolish 
> bias, in effect asserting that aliens haven't visited because of their 
> reliance on ignorance. That a secret black budget existed at least until 
> 2012 to further investigate this issue, shows that the Pentagon has taken 
> it seriously. In recent public statements, the director of that program 
> claims it continues. AG*
>

That program has been revealed to be the child of Harry Reid, Senator from 
Nevada. At the request of Bigelow, who is advancing the idea of big 
inflated habitable modules in space, this program germinated. Bigelow is 
interested in UFO stuff and wanted a program to investigate this. This 
program was not started because of some serious military concern.

LC

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Telmo Menezes]

https://xkcd.com/1235/

On Wed, Jan 3, 2018 at 3:54 PM,   wrote:
>
>
> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 7:21:40 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com
>>> wrote:



 On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish
 wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
> >
> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire
> > from
> > your quest for knowledge. AG
>
> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of
> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not
> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video,
> the
> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new,
> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all.
>
> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me
> in
> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn
> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core
> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the
> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read
> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the
> remainder.
>
> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos
> are mostly a waste of time in my experience.
>
> Cheers


 Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation
 issue will
 radically change. AG
>
>
>>>
>>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE IS.
>>
>>
>> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG
>
>
> What you fail to grasp is that eyewitness testimony can be absolutely
> accurate or completely worthless, depending on the circumstance or context.
> Those who unthinkingly endorse your pov are just showing their foolish bias,
> in effect asserting that aliens haven't visited because of their reliance on
> ignorance. That a secret black budget existed at least until 2012 to further
> investigate this issue, shows that the Pentagon has taken it seriously. In
> recent public statements, the director of that program claims it continues.
> AG
>
> --
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
> "Everything List" group.
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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 7:21:40 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:

 On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
 > 
 > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire 
 from 
 > your quest for knowledge. AG 

 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
 video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
 exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, 
 the 
 contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
 I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 

 I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me 
 in 
 the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
 something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
 details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
 pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
 articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the 
 remainder. 

 You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
 are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 

 Cheers 

>>>
>>> Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation 
>>> issue will
>>> radically change. AG 
>>>


>> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE 
>> IS.  
>>
>
> Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 
>

*What you fail to grasp is that eyewitness testimony can be absolutely 
accurate or completely worthless, depending on the circumstance or context. 
Those who unthinkingly endorse your pov are just showing their foolish 
bias, in effect asserting that aliens haven't visited because of their 
reliance on ignorance. That a secret black budget existed at least until 
2012 to further investigate this issue, shows that the Pentagon has taken 
it seriously. In recent public statements, the director of that program 
claims it continues. AG*

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 6:36:56 PM UTC-7, Zachary Smith wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>>>
>>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>>> > 
>>> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire 
>>> from 
>>> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>>>
>>> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
>>> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
>>> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, 
>>> the 
>>> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
>>> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>>>
>>> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me in 
>>> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
>>> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
>>> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
>>> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
>>> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the 
>>> remainder. 
>>>
>>> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
>>> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>>>
>>> Cheers 
>>>
>>
>> Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation 
>> issue will
>> radically change. AG 
>>
>>>
>>>
> **EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE IS.  
>

Brilliant. Incredibly brilliant. Thank you. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Zachary Smith]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:12:51 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>>
>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>> > 
>> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
>> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>>
>> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
>> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
>> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, 
>> the 
>> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
>> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>>
>> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me in 
>> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
>> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
>> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
>> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
>> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the 
>> remainder. 
>>
>> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
>> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>>
>> Cheers 
>>
>
> Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation 
> issue will
> radically change. AG 
>
>>
>>
**EYEWITNESS EVIDENCE IS THE LEAST SCIENTIFIC/CREDIBLE EVIDENCE THERE IS.  

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/2/2018 3:11 PM, Jason Resch wrote:


I think you are assuming the simulation can be
deterministic...which it can't.


I make no assumptions on this.  Watching life on any random planet 
evolve should be as illuminating as wandering the cosmos to happen 
upon a random planet with life on it to watch it evolve.  The problem 
is one of these activities takes billions of years to do.


But watching one randomized evolution will mostly produce lifeless 
planets.  So one would want to do Monte Carlo simulations to get a 
statistically significant range of interesting planets.  Thus increasing 
the size of the problem by a factor of M^N where M is the size of the 
statistical sample you want and N is the number of variables to define a 
"world".






Further, there are no limits to what it could explore. It could,
for example, explore possible planets in universes with different
laws of physics. There is no physical way for the intelligence to
ever visit these places, but they are not out of sight from an
intelligence so vast. And if mathematical realism is true, these
discovered places represent genuine discoveries, rather than
imaginings. There are unlimited riches available in the universe
of possibilities of mathematics. An ultraintelligence could no
doubt spend many eons searching through this space, finding new
connections between things, in its effort to learn everything.


But why is it motivated to learn anything at all?  Are we
supposing that humans programmed this in and the Supeintelligence
can't change it?


Whatever its goals may be, they are not harmed and likely helped by 
increased knowledge, creativity, intelligence, efficiency and 
computational power.


A super intelligence that doesn't have the goal of maximizing it 
knowledge is likely be displaced by the superintelligences which do.


How so?  According to your theory they are just interested in 
mathematical knowledge.  Are you supposing they would compete for 
energy/entropy?  and hence enter into warfare?


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Jason Resch]

On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 5:16 PM, Brent Meeker  wrote:

>
>
> On 1/2/2018 9:01 AM, Jason Resch wrote:
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 6:53 PM, Brent Meeker  wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On 1/1/2018 3:30 PM, Jason Resch wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell <
>> goldenfieldquaterni...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:

 On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
 >
 > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the
 > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video
 > convinced me otherwise. AG

 What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused
 by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals
 should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently
 discovered to be of a mummified child.

 The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable
 of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy
 into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me
 sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be
 damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July.

>>>
>>> I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were
>>> abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very apparent.
>>> The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not widely abundant
>>> in the universe, they may not last very long (we may be headed down that
>>> path) and if they do exist they are separated by distances far too large
>>> for travel and maybe too distant for even radio communication.
>>>
>>
>> I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the Fermi
>> Paradox: https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html
>>
>>
>> But wouldn't they explore this universe first?
>>
>
>
> To a Jupiter brain, our most complex physical theories would be as trivial
> as Tic-Tac-Toe. It stands to reason then, that whatever the particularities
> of the starting conditions for the ultraintelligence, they soon become a
> small fraction of what will occupies that mind. Most of what will fill such
> a mind will be information extracted from mathematics, which is equally
> accessible and common to all such minds regardless of the universe they
> start in.
>
> What kinds of things might preoccupy a mind the size of a star? There are
> certainly many things it could do, but what might it choose to do?
> Obviously to get to its point it had to do much learning, discovery and
> exploration, the continuation of such is one possibility. Bordom is another
> great concern for an entity that can think so fast and exist for so long.
>
>
> "Any eternal God would be so bored after one eternity that It would do Its
> best to commit suicide by creating an equally adept Opponent.  Half of the
> time the Opponent would succeed and the process would repeat.   It is
> impossible to know whether the current "God" is an even or odd term in the
> series."
> --- Roahn Wynar
>
> Against boredom even the gods themselves struggle in vain.
>   --- Nietzsche, The Antichrist
>

Hence Maya .  The
intentional forgetting that one is immortal and omniscient.


>
> Entertainment is a second possibility activity for such
> ultraintelligences. A third possibility is doing good for other beings.
>
> Humans are far behind the hypothetical intelligence of a planet-sized
> brain, and yet we have largely figured out the laws of physics in our own
> universe. Physics, and chemistry, as a source of new discovery and insight
> might soon dry up under the anylsis of an ultraintelligence. Biology too,
> once the ultraintelligence scanned and analyzed the DNA of every speices on
> Earth and reverse engineered the course of evolution and adapdation going
> back billions of years. Observation of far away planets may be possible
> through the engineering of truly colossal telescopes, but it would likely
> prove frustrating.
>
> An optical telescope with an apeture equal to the diameter of the moon
> could only resolve objects larger than a mile at the distance of one light
> year. To keep the same resolution while looking at something 1,000 light
> years away and the diameter of the telescope's aperture has to increase
> another thousand times. At this point, the telescope would be over 2
> million miles in diameter. Using such a telescope to view an Earth-sized
> planet 1,000 light years away would yield an imagine a few thousand pixels
> by a few thousand pixels. It would be enough to tell whether or not there
> was life on the planet, and perhaps pick out the existence of cities, but
> all told it is still a small amount of information returned for such a
> massive investment of material and 

Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/2/2018 9:01 AM, Jason Resch wrote:



On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 6:53 PM, Brent Meeker > wrote:




On 1/1/2018 3:30 PM, Jason Resch wrote:



On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell
> wrote:

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell
Standish wrote:

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800,
agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was
convinced that the
> incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul.
But the video
> convinced me otherwise. AG

What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is
immediately aroused
by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent
animals
should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that
was recently
discovered to be of a mummified child.

The point Fermi makes is that any technological
civilisation capable
of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the
entire galaxy
into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This
makes me
sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists,
they should be
damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in
Rome in July.


I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if
ETs were abundant in the universe and if they persisted they
would be very apparent. The lack of such clear evidence
suggests that ETs are not widely abundant in the universe,
they may not last very long (we may be headed down that path)
and if they do exist they are separated by distances far too
large for travel and maybe too distant for even radio
communication.


I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the
Fermi Paradox:
https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html



But wouldn't they explore this universe first?



To a Jupiter brain, our most complex physical theories would be as 
trivial as Tic-Tac-Toe. It stands to reason then, that whatever the 
particularities of the starting conditions for the ultraintelligence, 
they soon become a small fraction of what will occupies that mind. 
Most of what will fill such a mind will be information extracted from 
mathematics, which is equally accessible and common to all such minds 
regardless of the universe they start in.


What kinds of things might preoccupy a mind the size of a star? There 
are certainly many things it could do, but what might it choose to do? 
Obviously to get to its point it had to do much learning, discovery 
and exploration, the continuation of such is one possibility. Bordom 
is another great concern for an entity that can think so fast and 
exist for so long.




"Any eternal God would be so bored after one eternity that It would do 
Its best to commit suicide by creating an equally adept Opponent.  Half 
of the time the Opponent would succeed and the process would repeat.   
It is impossible to know whether the current "God" is an even or odd 
term in the series."

    --- Roahn Wynar

Against boredom even the gods themselves struggle in vain.
  --- Nietzsche, The Antichrist


Entertainment is a second possibility activity for such 
ultraintelligences. A third possibility is doing good for other beings.


Humans are far behind the hypothetical intelligence of a planet-sized 
brain, and yet we have largely figured out the laws of physics in our 
own universe. Physics, and chemistry, as a source of new discovery and 
insight might soon dry up under the anylsis of an ultraintelligence. 
Biology too, once the ultraintelligence scanned and analyzed the DNA 
of every speices on Earth and reverse engineered the course of 
evolution and adapdation going back billions of years. Observation of 
far away planets may be possible through the engineering of truly 
colossal telescopes, but it would likely prove frustrating.


An optical telescope with an apeture equal to the diameter of the moon 
could only resolve objects larger than a mile at the distance of one 
light year. To keep the same resolution while looking at something 
1,000 light years away and the diameter of the telescope's 
aperture has to increase another thousand times. At this point, the 
telescope would be over 2 million miles in diameter. Using such a 
telescope to view an Earth-sized planet 1,000 light years away would 
yield an imagine a few thousand pixels by a few thousand pixels. It 
would be enough to tell whether or not there was life on the planet, 
and perhaps pick out the existence 

Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Jason Resch]

On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 6:53 PM, Brent Meeker  wrote:

>
>
> On 1/1/2018 3:30 PM, Jason Resch wrote:
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell <
> goldenfieldquaterni...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:
>>>
>>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> >
>>> > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the
>>> > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video
>>> > convinced me otherwise. AG
>>>
>>> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused
>>> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals
>>> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently
>>> discovered to be of a mummified child.
>>>
>>> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable
>>> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy
>>> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me
>>> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be
>>> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July.
>>>
>>
>> I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were
>> abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very apparent.
>> The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not widely abundant
>> in the universe, they may not last very long (we may be headed down that
>> path) and if they do exist they are separated by distances far too large
>> for travel and maybe too distant for even radio communication.
>>
>
> I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the Fermi
> Paradox: https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html
>
>
> But wouldn't they explore this universe first?
>


To a Jupiter brain, our most complex physical theories would be as trivial
as Tic-Tac-Toe. It stands to reason then, that whatever the particularities
of the starting conditions for the ultraintelligence, they soon become a
small fraction of what will occupies that mind. Most of what will fill such
a mind will be information extracted from mathematics, which is equally
accessible and common to all such minds regardless of the universe they
start in.

What kinds of things might preoccupy a mind the size of a star? There are
certainly many things it could do, but what might it choose to do?
Obviously to get to its point it had to do much learning, discovery and
exploration, the continuation of such is one possibility. Bordom is another
great concern for an entity that can think so fast and exist for so long.
Entertainment is a second possibility activity for such ultraintelligences.
A third possibility is doing good for other beings.

Humans are far behind the hypothetical intelligence of a planet-sized
brain, and yet we have largely figured out the laws of physics in our own
universe. Physics, and chemistry, as a source of new discovery and insight
might soon dry up under the anylsis of an ultraintelligence. Biology too,
once the ultraintelligence scanned and analyzed the DNA of every speices on
Earth and reverse engineered the course of evolution and adapdation going
back billions of years. Observation of far away planets may be possible
through the engineering of truly colossal telescopes, but it would likely
prove frustrating.

An optical telescope with an apeture equal to the diameter of the moon
could only resolve objects larger than a mile at the distance of one light
year. To keep the same resolution while looking at something 1,000 light
years away and the diameter of the telescope's aperture has to increase
another thousand times. At this point, the telescope would be over 2
million miles in diameter. Using such a telescope to view an Earth-sized
planet 1,000 light years away would yield an imagine a few thousand pixels
by a few thousand pixels. It would be enough to tell whether or not there
was life on the planet, and perhaps pick out the existence of cities, but
all told it is still a small amount of information returned for such a
massive investment of material and energy.

This is a problem for ultraintelligences. Even with massive investment in
instruments to collect information from the physical realm, such
information comes in only as a slow drip compared to the
ultraintelligence's capacity to process that information. Fortunately,
there exist alternatives for such a mind to meet its thirst for knowledge.
By using just a fraction of its available computing power, it could
simulate the entire history of life on an Earth-like planet and in the
process learn everything there is to know about it.

All movement and associated computation that occurs on our planet is driven
by energy. Nearly all (99.97%) of the available energy on earth comes from
the sun, with the rest coming from radioactivity and tidal energy. This
amount of energy is almost inconceivable. When quantified, it 

Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Tuesday, January 2, 2018 at 9:03:39 AM UTC-6, smitra wrote:
>
> On 02-01-2018 01:20, Lawrence Crowell wrote: 
> > On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 5:30:27 PM UTC-6, Jason wrote: 
> > 
> >> On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell 
> >>  wrote: 
> >> 
> >> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish 
> >> wrote:On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
> >> wrote: 
> >>> 
> >>> In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that 
> >> the 
> >>> incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the 
> >> video 
> >>> convinced me otherwise. AG 
> >> 
> >> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately 
> >> aroused 
> >> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals 
> >> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was 
> >> recently 
> >> discovered to be of a mummified child. 
> >> 
> >> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable 
> >> 
> >> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy 
> >> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me 
> >> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be 
> >> 
> >> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July. 
> >> 
> >> 
> >> I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were 
> >> abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very 
> >> apparent. The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not 
> >> widely abundant in the universe, they may not last very long (we may 
> >> be headed down that path) and if they do exist they are separated by 
> >> distances far too large for travel and maybe too distant for even 
> >> radio communication. 
> > 
> > I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the Fermi 
> > Paradox: https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html 
> > [1] 
> > 
> > This fictionalized version is a great read: 
> > http://frombob.to/you/index.html [2] 
> > 
> > Jason 
> > 
> > I think Brent has a point. It is similar to saying that we humans are 
> > more likely to colonize Mars before we colonize any extra-solar system 
> > of planets. I think the idea of transcension projects this issue into 
> > far more extreme territory. So I tend to think if alien spacecraft 
> > really did appear here that it would be in some ways fairly ordinary. 
> > Highly extraordinary accounts are less probable. 
> > 
> > Wormholing to other cosmologies or trying to use rotating black holes 
> > to pass into another cosmology or region is fraught with troubles. 
> > Violation of chronology protection and censorship by horizons is 
> > equivalent to violating theorem results in quantum mechanics. These 
> > things may not be physically possible. 
> > 
> > LC 
> > 
> There can also be problems with building structures that can repair 
> themselves and grow faster than the rate at which they degrade. Biology 
> shows that it is possible for such structures to exist, but it's not so 
> easy to get to such structures. 
>
> The more critical parts a system has that all must be copied perfectly 
> for the copy to function, the smaller the error rate per part can be. On 
> average, you need to have more than one working system per doubling for 
> there to be exponential growth. This means that the required fidelity 
> for copying critical parts should be better than 1/N where N is the 
> number of critical parts. 
>
> Saibal 
>

This is in part why biological systems are massively redundant. 

Large megastructures have other problems. Remember Gauss' law that if you 
integrate over a gravitating mass you get that mass or 4πGM. As a result 
integrating a Gaussian surface inside a shell of matter returns zero and 
the net force on any mass inside is zero. Hence the gravitational potential 
of a Dyson sphere interior is constant, which means it is not bound to the 
star. This means the two will drift apart. The same holds for a ring world; 
it can drift relative to the star within the plane of the ring.

We see no evidence of large complex structures, Tabby's star aside I 
suppose. Though that is likely due to something natural and not a Dyson 
sphere. It also is the case these things would be enormously complex.

LC

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[smitra]

On 02-01-2018 01:20, Lawrence Crowell wrote:

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 5:30:27 PM UTC-6, Jason wrote:


On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell
 wrote:

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish
wrote:On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com
wrote:


In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that

the

incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the

video

convinced me otherwise. AG


What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately
aroused
by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals
should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was
recently
discovered to be of a mummified child.

The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable

of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy
into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me
sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be

damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July.


I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were
abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very
apparent. The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not
widely abundant in the universe, they may not last very long (we may
be headed down that path) and if they do exist they are separated by
distances far too large for travel and maybe too distant for even
radio communication.


I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the Fermi
Paradox: https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html
[1]

This fictionalized version is a great read:
http://frombob.to/you/index.html [2]

Jason

I think Brent has a point. It is similar to saying that we humans are
more likely to colonize Mars before we colonize any extra-solar system
of planets. I think the idea of transcension projects this issue into
far more extreme territory. So I tend to think if alien spacecraft
really did appear here that it would be in some ways fairly ordinary.
Highly extraordinary accounts are less probable.

Wormholing to other cosmologies or trying to use rotating black holes
to pass into another cosmology or region is fraught with troubles.
Violation of chronology protection and censorship by horizons is
equivalent to violating theorem results in quantum mechanics. These
things may not be physically possible.

LC

There can also be problems with building structures that can repair 
themselves and grow faster than the rate at which they degrade. Biology 
shows that it is possible for such structures to exist, but it's not so 
easy to get to such structures.


The more critical parts a system has that all must be copied perfectly 
for the copy to function, the smaller the error rate per part can be. On 
average, you need to have more than one working system per doubling for 
there to be exponential growth. This means that the required fidelity 
for copying critical parts should be better than 1/N where N is the 
number of critical parts.


Saibal

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 6:46:07 PM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> Lying is not the only explanation for these witness statements. What 
> these witnesses saw may well have explanations other than ET. One of 
> my favourites, though obviously rather implausible, is that they are 
> time travellers of some future type of human checking us out. More 
> likely it is some form of collective hallucination, though. 
>

The time traveler interpretation is extremely implausible. Time travel 
would force us to revise much of our foundational understanding of physics. 
Again I can't prove this, though I will say I think quantum gravitation 
will remove solutions to the Einstein field equation that involve closed 
timelike curves. Such solutions that permit time travel and travel faster 
than light violate the Hawking-Penrose energy conditions that the stress 
energy tensor obeys T^{00} ≥ 0.How this happens is similar to Dirac's 
relativistic QM solution that filled the negative energy momentum like cone 
with vacuum states. These as occupied states were not directly accessible 
as real particle states. Of course we can't completely rule out some deeper 
foundation of physics that circumvents this. However, if so any applied 
physics or technology that employs this would be enormously more advanced 
than anything we can remotely even imagine. I would argue that makes this 
far more unlikely.

Carl Jung wrote a book on the issue of UFOs. He cited this as an instance 
of how our symbolic representations are shifting. We have symbols that are 
more based on science, and correspondingly this he argues is working it way 
into our mythic narratives. We seem to be seeing something of this sort 
with quasi-religious ideas of ancient alien astronauts, UFO cults and even 
the huge interest in superheros. Superheros are serving a rule similar to 
the pantheon in polytheistic religions of the past. This has a lot to do 
with what is occurring in the inner space of human consciousness far more 
than anything with outerspace.

LC
 

>
> But you haven't really pointed to any particular aspect of the 
> testimonies that convinced you these were the missing ETIs that Fermi 
> was talking about. 
>
> On Mon, Jan 01, 2018 at 04:16:50PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses 
> > lying is hugely improbable. But to think about that, to really think 
> about 
> > it, is dangerous to some emotional status quo. I've tried this 
> experiment 
> > before, always with the same result, except for my friend who works for 
> US 
> > military intelligence. AG 
> > 
>
>
> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Telmo Menezes]

On Tue, Jan 2, 2018 at 1:16 AM,   wrote:
>
>
> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:29:56 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:58:07 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:


 I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's tendency
 to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside.  If I did my 
 bank
 account would be full of Nigerian money.

 Brent
>>>
>>>
>>> I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for an
>>> open-minded assessment of their credibility, but I see that's too much to
>>> expect. AG
>>
>>
>> I only watched the first few minutes of the video. It became apparent to
>> me where it was going and frankly it seemed like a waste of time. I have no
>> idea why the witnesses, or claimed witnesses?, made these statements. I
>> can't comment on that. All I can say is the evidence for this seems
>> circumstantial, incomplete and not controlled. Oh yeah, I have been to the
>> UFO museum in Roswell; it is a bit of a hoot.
>>
>> LC
>
>
> Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses lying
> is hugely improbable. But to think about that, to really think about it, is
> dangerous to some emotional status quo. I've tried this experiment before,
> always with the same result, except for my friend who works for US military
> intelligence. AG

In 13 October 1917, in Fatima, Portugal, 3 to 4 people claim
to have witnessed the sun dancing in the sky, following the reported
apparition of Virgin Mary to three children.
The probability of all these people lying is astronomically low. Does
that lead you to conclude that the sun danced in the sky on that day?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miracle_of_the_Sun

Telmo.

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 5:48:54 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/1/2018 4:16 PM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
>
>
> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:29:56 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote: 
>>
>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:58:07 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>> wrote: 
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>>

 I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's 
 tendency to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside.  If I 
 did my bank account would be full of Nigerian money.

 Brent

>>>
>>> I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for an 
>>> open-minded assessment of their credibility, but I see that's too much to 
>>> expect. AG 
>>>
>>
>> I only watched the first few minutes of the video. It became apparent to 
>> me where it was going and frankly it seemed like a waste of time. I have no 
>> idea why the witnesses, or claimed witnesses?, made these statements. I 
>> can't comment on that. All I can say is the evidence for this seems 
>> circumstantial, incomplete and not controlled. Oh yeah, I have been to the 
>> UFO museum in Roswell; it is a bit of a hoot. 
>>
>> LC
>>
>
> Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses 
> lying is hugely improbable. 
>
>
> If they were selected at random.  But in fact they were selected to make 
> this video.
>

OK, but why are you so intent on defending the conventional wisdom? There 
is nothing inherently extraordinary for Earth to have been visited by 
extraterrestrials. Perhaps they live nearby. AG 

>
> But to think about that, to really think about it, is dangerous to some 
> emotional status quo. I've tried this experiment before, always with the 
> same result, except for my friend who works for US military intelligence. 
> AG 
>
>
> Of course one who works in military intelligence is inclined to secret 
> plots and conspiracy theories.
>

Not one of his failings. I know him well. In fact, he claims to have a 
generally skeptical pov. And most in military intelligence are pretty 
sober; not inclined to wild speculations, except when it comes to Russia 
and China, and who can blame them for this? AG 

>
> Brent
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/1/2018 4:16 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:



On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:29:56 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:58:07 PM UTC-6,
agrays...@gmail.com wrote:



On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:


I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about
people's tendency to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set
any of that aside.  If I did my bank account would be full
of Nigerian money.

Brent


I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for
an open-minded assessment of their credibility, but I see
that's too much to expect. AG


I only watched the first few minutes of the video. It became
apparent to me where it was going and frankly it seemed like a
waste of time. I have no idea why the witnesses, or claimed
witnesses?, made these statements. I can't comment on that. All I
can say is the evidence for this seems circumstantial, incomplete
and not controlled. Oh yeah, I have been to the UFO museum in
Roswell; it is a bit of a hoot.

LC


Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses 
lying is hugely improbable.


If they were selected at random.  But in fact they were selected to make 
this video.


But to think about that, to really think about it, is dangerous to 
some emotional status quo. I've tried this experiment before, always 
with the same result, except for my friend who works for US military 
intelligence. AG


Of course one who works in military intelligence is inclined to secret 
plots and conspiracy theories.


Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

Lying is not the only explanation for these witness statements. What
these witnesses saw may well have explanations other than ET. One of
my favourites, though obviously rather implausible, is that they are
time travellers of some future type of human checking us out. More
likely it is some form of collective hallucination, though.

But you haven't really pointed to any particular aspect of the
testimonies that convinced you these were the missing ETIs that Fermi
was talking about.

On Mon, Jan 01, 2018 at 04:16:50PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses 
> lying is hugely improbable. But to think about that, to really think about 
> it, is dangerous to some emotional status quo. I've tried this experiment 
> before, always with the same result, except for my friend who works for US 
> military intelligence. AG 
> 


-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 5:30:27 PM UTC-6, Jason wrote:
>
>
>
> On Mon, Jan 1, 2018 at 8:56 AM, Lawrence Crowell  > wrote:
>
>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:
>>>
>>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>>> > 
>>> > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
>>> > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
>>> > convinced me otherwise. AG 
>>>
>>> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused 
>>> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals 
>>> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently 
>>> discovered to be of a mummified child. 
>>>
>>> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable 
>>> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy 
>>> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me 
>>> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be 
>>> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July. 
>>>
>>
>> I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were 
>> abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very apparent. 
>> The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not widely abundant 
>> in the universe, they may not last very long (we may be headed down that 
>> path) and if they do exist they are separated by distances far too large 
>> for travel and maybe too distant for even radio communication. 
>>
>
> I am partial to the Transcension Hypothesis as an answer to the Fermi 
> Paradox: https://accelerating.org/articles/transcensionhypothesis.html
>
> This fictionalized version is a great read: 
> http://frombob.to/you/index.html
>
> Jason
>

I think Brent has a point. It is similar to saying that we humans are more 
likely to colonize Mars before we colonize any extra-solar system of 
planets. I think the idea of transcension projects this issue into far more 
extreme territory. So I tend to think if alien spacecraft really did appear 
here that it would be in some ways fairly ordinary. Highly extraordinary 
accounts are less probable. 

Wormholing to other cosmologies or trying to use rotating black holes to 
pass into another cosmology or region is fraught with troubles. Violation 
of chronology protection and censorship by horizons is equivalent to 
violating theorem results in quantum mechanics. These things may not be 
physically possible.

LC 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:29:56 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:58:07 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's tendency 
>>> to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside.  If I did my 
>>> bank account would be full of Nigerian money.
>>>
>>> Brent
>>>
>>
>> I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for an 
>> open-minded assessment of their credibility, but I see that's too much to 
>> expect. AG 
>>
>
> I only watched the first few minutes of the video. It became apparent to 
> me where it was going and frankly it seemed like a waste of time. I have no 
> idea why the witnesses, or claimed witnesses?, made these statements. I 
> can't comment on that. All I can say is the evidence for this seems 
> circumstantial, incomplete and not controlled. Oh yeah, I have been to the 
> UFO museum in Roswell; it is a bit of a hoot. 
>
> LC
>

Lying by human beings is the exception, not the rule. So six witnesses 
lying is hugely improbable. But to think about that, to really think about 
it, is dangerous to some emotional status quo. I've tried this experiment 
before, always with the same result, except for my friend who works for US 
military intelligence. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 3:58:07 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>>
>> I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's tendency 
>> to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside.  If I did my 
>> bank account would be full of Nigerian money.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for an 
> open-minded assessment of their credibility, but I see that's too much to 
> expect. AG 
>

I only watched the first few minutes of the video. It became apparent to me 
where it was going and frankly it seemed like a waste of time. I have no 
idea why the witnesses, or claimed witnesses?, made these statements. I 
can't comment on that. All I can say is the evidence for this seems 
circumstantial, incomplete and not controlled. Oh yeah, I have been to the 
UFO museum in Roswell; it is a bit of a hoot. 

LC

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:47:40 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 1/1/2018 6:36 AM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
>
>
> On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 1:14:35 AM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote: 
>>
>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>> > 
>> > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
>> > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
>> > convinced me otherwise. AG 
>>
>> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused 
>> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals 
>> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently 
>> discovered to be of a mummified child. 
>>
>> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable 
>> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy 
>> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me 
>> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be 
>> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July. 
>>
>  
> In this situation you have to put aside what you think you know on this 
> topic, recognizing that
> in fact you know next to nothing, and decide if the witnesses in the video 
> are credible.
>
>
> I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's tendency 
> to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside.  If I did my 
> bank account would be full of Nigerian money.
>
> Brent
>

I don't expect you to set anything aside. All I asked is for an open-minded 
assessment of their credibility, but I see that's too much to expect. AG 

>
> In my opinion they are.  I showed the video to a friend, one star retired 
> army general 
> who is regularly called for high level security consulting work with the 
> US intelligence 
> community, whose expertise is in asymmetric warfare, and he agrees with my 
> assessment. AG 
>
>>
>>
>> -- 
>>
>>  
>>
>> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
>> Principal, High Performance Coders 
>> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>>  
>>
>>
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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 1/1/2018 6:36 AM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:



On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 1:14:35 AM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com
 wrote:
>
> In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that
the
> incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video
> convinced me otherwise. AG

What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused
by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals
should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently
discovered to be of a mummified child.

The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable
of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy
into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me
sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be
damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July.

In this situation you have to put aside what you think you know on 
this topic, recognizing that
in fact you know next to nothing, and decide if the witnesses in the 
video are credible.


I know a good deal about physics and a good deal about people's tendency 
to prevaricate.  I see no reason to set any of that aside. If I did my 
bank account would be full of Nigerian money.


Brent

In my opinion they are.  I showed the video to a friend, one star 
retired army general
who is regularly called for high level security consulting work with 
the US intelligence
community, whose expertise is in asymmetric warfare, and he agrees 
with my assessment. AG




-- 




Dr Russell Standish                    Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellow hpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au



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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 11:13:06 AM UTC-7, John Clark wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 7:08 PM, Russell Standish  > wrote:
>
>  
>> ​> ​
>> What the hell does this have to do with the Fermi paradox?
>>
>
> ​That is a excellent question! I don't need the Everything List to read 
> about flying saucers, I can pick up a tabloid newspaper at the supermarket 
> and read all about them, and as a bonus get an astrology column and diet 
> tips from the movie stars. I hope this list isn't turning into a haven for 
> crackpots. 
>
>  John K Clark  
>

The existence of extraterrestrial visitations would show that Fermi's 
assumption of high density of intelligent life in the universe is woefully 
wrong; OR, that by chance we have near neighbors. I personally agree with 
LC that the density is very low, but the witnesses have credibility for 
those with the intellectual honesty to hear them out, instead of indulging 
robotic denial responses. AG 

 

>  ​
>
>  
>
>  
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 11:13:06 AM UTC-7, John Clark wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 7:08 PM, Russell Standish  > wrote:
>
>  
>> ​> ​
>> What the hell does this have to do with the Fermi paradox?
>>
>
> ​That is a excellent question! 
>

Obvious to a thinking person.  AG
 

> I don't need the Everything List to read about flying saucers, I can pick 
> up a tabloid newspaper at the supermarket and read all about them, and as a 
> bonus get an astrology column and diet tips from the movie stars. I hope 
> this list isn't turning into a haven for crackpots. 
>
>  John K Clark
>

But you're ALREADY a crackpot with your interpretation of Joe the Plumber. 
Sad and funny at the same time. BTW, what is your academic and professional 
background? Just curious. AG

>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[John Clark]

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 7:08 PM, Russell Standish 
wrote:


> ​> ​
> What the hell does this have to do with the Fermi paradox?
>

​That is a excellent question! I don't need the Everything List to read
about flying saucers, I can pick up a tabloid newspaper at the supermarket
and read all about them, and as a bonus get an astrology column and diet
tips from the movie stars. I hope this list isn't turning into a haven for
crackpots.

 John K Clark​

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 1:14:35 AM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
> > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
> > convinced me otherwise. AG 
>
> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused 
> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals 
> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently 
> discovered to be of a mummified child. 
>
> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable 
> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy 
> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me 
> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be 
> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July. 
>
 
In this situation you have to put aside what you think you know on this 
topic, recognizing that
in fact you know next to nothing, and decide if the witnesses in the video 
are credible.
In my opinion they are.  I showed the video to a friend, one star retired 
army general 
who is regularly called for high level security consulting work with the US 
intelligence 
community, whose expertise is in asymmetric warfare, and he agrees with my 
assessment. AG 

>
>
> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, January 1, 2018 at 2:14:35 AM UTC-6, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
> > incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
> > convinced me otherwise. AG 
>
> What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused 
> by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals 
> should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently 
> discovered to be of a mummified child. 
>
> The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable 
> of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy 
> into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me 
> sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be 
> damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July. 
>

I would second this. Fermi's argument would suggest that if ETs were 
abundant in the universe and if they persisted they would be very apparent. 
The lack of such clear evidence suggests that ETs are not widely abundant 
in the universe, they may not last very long (we may be headed down that 
path) and if they do exist they are separated by distances far too large 
for travel and maybe too distant for even radio communication. I wrote a 
short book on the physics involved with mostly sending a probe to another 
star. I think stars within about 25 light years are in principle within 
reach by our potential future abilities. This means with probes, not by 
astronauts. Hawking has signed off on a program for a type of star probe 
similar to what I outline. It is more problematic the further out one tries 
to reach. If we could wait long enough a probe might be sent to a star a 
thousand light years out, where at say half light speed, we are willing to 
wait three thousand years for a return message. 

Travel by living beings to another star is extremely difficult. I have to 
stress that faster than light travel is very unlikely. If it were possible 
to travel faster than light it would be possible to time travel as well. 
This is particularly the case seen with wormholes where an opening of a 
wormhole can be Lorentz boosted to put the opening in a time separation. 
That would mean it is possible to send a quantum state into past so that in 
the past you receive an exact copy of this quantum state. This would then 
be a form of quantum cloning. Violations of chronology and censorship by 
horizons appears equivalent to violations of quantum theorems such as no 
cloning, no signalling, Bell inequality violation, and the Kochen-Specker 
theorems. Of course science can't empirically prove a negative, such as the 
infamous black swan problem, but we can though dismiss these possibilities 
until such time there is strong evidence for them.

This means that if living beings travel between stars they do so slower 
than light speed. In my book I argue for probes that have low gamma γ < 2, 
or largely v ~ .5c to .8c. Half light speed means travel to a star 10 light 
years away is time dilated by .87 or it would take about 17.5 years. If are 
at γ = 2 this is v = .87c and a time dilation of a half. One has to 
remember this means the kinetic energy of the spacecraft is equal to its 
mass energy. This is an enormous amount of energy even for a small mass 
probe, and for a large spacecraft is really huge. If this craft has beings 
on board it must provide for them over this time, which means it will be 
very large. Even if these beings put themselves in some hibernation. The 
scale of this sort of enterprise would be rather striking. It also means 
that if aliens visit Earth they do not do so in small flying saucers, but 
there would be some behemoth spacecraft. A small craft might be some form 
of landing vehicle, but aliens are not going to live in a small craft the 
size of an average aircraft.

Maybe UFOs are then simply probes. If so it is likely they come from a 
relatively nearby star. We can then observe the stars in a neighborhood of 
100 light years. There are about 10,000 stars there and a census is 
certainly possible. If we find a star that bears signatures of biology, say 
a planet with oxygen atmosphere with traces of methane, then we might be 
able to focus in on something. So far no extrasolar planet fits this bill. 
Further, the evidence for alien spacecraft is shaky. It is not strong as 
with evidence for other objects in the universe, say pulsars or even now 
gravitational radiation from coalescing black holes. UFO data, if we call 
it that, is circumstantial and highly irregular. So there is not much here 
to really go with.

Anyway I wrote far more on this than I was planning. Matters of UFOs and 
related things such as ancient alien astronauts and the like really fail to 
live up to being credible science. Again science can't prove a negative, 
but we can judge 

Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 09:41:33PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
> incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
> convinced me otherwise. AG 

What did you find so convincing? My scepticism is immediately aroused
by humanoid ETIs. There's no good reason why intelligent animals
should be humanoid. Plus there was that photo of ET that was recently
discovered to be of a mummified child.

The point Fermi makes is that any technological civilisation capable
of interstellar travel will quite rapidly convert the entire galaxy
into artifical structures, such as dyson spheres. This makes me
sceptical about ET conspiracy theories. If ET exists, they should be
damn obvious by rights, just like American tourists in Rome in July.


-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 10:02:22 PM UTC-7, agrays...@gmail.com 
wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:19:38 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On 12/31/2017 5:07 PM, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 5:47:31 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote: 
>>>
>>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 04:39:08PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>>> > TL; DW? 
>>> > Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so many 
>>> presumed 
>>> > intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no 
>>> visitations. 
>>> > But we have! 
>>> > Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG 
>>> > 
>>>
>>> I know what the Fermi paradox is. I was asking why a video about the 
>>> Roswell "incident" sheds any light on it? 
>>>
>>> TL; DW (too long, didn't watch - by analogy with TL; DR). 
>>>
>>> Cheers 
>>>
>>
>> If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
>> your quest for knowledge. AG 
>>
>>
>> I didn't watch it either.  My knowledge allowed me to consider the source.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> You have no such knowledge. What you have is bias, supposition, based on 
> incomplete evidence. Did you know of the black budgeted project which was 
> allegedly terminated in 2012, and what the project director had to say 
> about the issue? It was in the news about a week ago. AG 
>

In fact, prior to viewing the video posted, I was convinced that the 
incident at Roswell was a balloon from Project Mogul. But the video 
convinced me otherwise. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:19:38 PM UTC-7, Brent wrote:
>
>
>
> On 12/31/2017 5:07 PM, agrays...@gmail.com  wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 5:47:31 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote: 
>>
>> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 04:39:08PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com wrote: 
>> > TL; DW? 
>> > Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so many 
>> presumed 
>> > intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no 
>> visitations. 
>> > But we have! 
>> > Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG 
>> > 
>>
>> I know what the Fermi paradox is. I was asking why a video about the 
>> Roswell "incident" sheds any light on it? 
>>
>> TL; DW (too long, didn't watch - by analogy with TL; DR). 
>>
>> Cheers 
>>
>
> If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
> your quest for knowledge. AG 
>
>
> I didn't watch it either.  My knowledge allowed me to consider the source.
>
> Brent
>

You have no such knowledge. What you have is bias, supposition, based on 
incomplete evidence. Did you know of the black budgeted project which was 
allegedly terminated in 2012, and what the project director had to say 
about the issue? It was in the news about a week ago. AG 

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 8:18:35 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> It was a test to loft equipment up into the atmosphere to conduct INTEL on 
> Russia. It was not an alien spacecraft. Please get real.
>
> LC
>

We have a difference of opinion. I find the witnesses completely credible. 
It wasn't Project Mogul. Did you Google the most recent black project, the 
one that allegedly ended in 2012? AG 

>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 7:56:26 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:11:17 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>>
>>> The fact these people were assigned to intelligence indicates something. 
>>> This was a balloon crash. The balloon though carried a payload that was 
>>> highly classified. It contained detectors and instruments that might detect 
>>> whether the USSR detonated an atomic bomb. They had not done so up to that 
>>> point, the year 1947, but the concern was that they might at any time. The 
>>> interest was in figuring out how a Russian test could be detected so if 
>>> they kept it secret it would be known by American INTEL and if they 
>>> announced a nuclear test that we could then have some verification of that. 
>>> Something went awry and it fell out of the atmosphere. The story about this 
>>> being a UFO crash provided a convenient distraction away from the actual 
>>> events. The USAAF and other military/INTEL agencies kept very quiet about 
>>> this and did not deny the UFO account. 
>>>
>>
>> I know about Project Mogul. It wasn't a balloon at Roswell, which is what 
>> the witnesses testify to. Also, US INTEL did in fact, deny the UFO account 
>> a few days after the incident. AG 
>>
>> Call it plausible deniability.
>>>
>>> The lack of radio signals from stars in the 1000 light year vicinity of 
>>> this galaxy probably suggests that intelligent life communicating with 
>>> radio do not exist. If they do exist they are communicating with encrypted 
>>> formats much like we do and have no interest in trying to "reach out and 
>>> touch someone," if you recall the old AT advert. I did an estimate that 
>>> indicated a galaxy like the Milky Way may have at most a few thousand 
>>> planets with complex life as seen on Earth. The probabilities any of them 
>>> have intelligent life coincident with us is pretty small. Intelligent life 
>>> in the universe may be very sparse and rare.
>>>
>>> UFO accounts and the rest fail to rise above what might be called a 
>>> credible signal to noise ratio. Real hard evidence of UFO accounts as being 
>>> due to alien artifacts and beings is crummy; there is very little there to 
>>> really hold onto.
>>>
>>
>> Did you know about the recently declassified UFO study conducted with 
>> black money? It was officially terminated in 2012, but the former head said 
>> it continues and says he believes that intelligent extra terrestrials have 
>> visited and continue to visit. Google about it. AG 
>>
>>>
>>> LC
>>>
>>> On Thursday, December 28, 2017 at 11:06:44 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>>> wrote:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU



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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Brent Meeker]

On 12/31/2017 5:07 PM, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:



On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 5:47:31 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 04:39:08PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com
 wrote:
> TL; DW?
> Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so
many presumed
> intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no
visitations.
> But we have!
> Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG
>

I know what the Fermi paradox is. I was asking why a video about the
Roswell "incident" sheds any light on it?

TL; DW (too long, didn't watch - by analogy with TL; DR).

Cheers


If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire 
from your quest for knowledge. AG


I didn't watch it either.  My knowledge allowed me to consider the source.

Brent

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

It was a test to loft equipment up into the atmosphere to conduct INTEL on 
Russia. It was not an alien spacecraft. Please get real.

LC

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 7:56:26 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>
>
> On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:11:17 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> The fact these people were assigned to intelligence indicates something. 
>> This was a balloon crash. The balloon though carried a payload that was 
>> highly classified. It contained detectors and instruments that might detect 
>> whether the USSR detonated an atomic bomb. They had not done so up to that 
>> point, the year 1947, but the concern was that they might at any time. The 
>> interest was in figuring out how a Russian test could be detected so if 
>> they kept it secret it would be known by American INTEL and if they 
>> announced a nuclear test that we could then have some verification of that. 
>> Something went awry and it fell out of the atmosphere. The story about this 
>> being a UFO crash provided a convenient distraction away from the actual 
>> events. The USAAF and other military/INTEL agencies kept very quiet about 
>> this and did not deny the UFO account. 
>>
>
> I know about Project Mogul. It wasn't a balloon at Roswell, which is what 
> the witnesses testify to. Also, US INTEL did in fact, deny the UFO account 
> a few days after the incident. AG 
>
> Call it plausible deniability.
>>
>> The lack of radio signals from stars in the 1000 light year vicinity of 
>> this galaxy probably suggests that intelligent life communicating with 
>> radio do not exist. If they do exist they are communicating with encrypted 
>> formats much like we do and have no interest in trying to "reach out and 
>> touch someone," if you recall the old AT advert. I did an estimate that 
>> indicated a galaxy like the Milky Way may have at most a few thousand 
>> planets with complex life as seen on Earth. The probabilities any of them 
>> have intelligent life coincident with us is pretty small. Intelligent life 
>> in the universe may be very sparse and rare.
>>
>> UFO accounts and the rest fail to rise above what might be called a 
>> credible signal to noise ratio. Real hard evidence of UFO accounts as being 
>> due to alien artifacts and beings is crummy; there is very little there to 
>> really hold onto.
>>
>
> Did you know about the recently declassified UFO study conducted with 
> black money? It was officially terminated in 2012, but the former head said 
> it continues and says he believes that intelligent extra terrestrials have 
> visited and continue to visit. Google about it. AG 
>
>>
>> LC
>>
>> On Thursday, December 28, 2017 at 11:06:44 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
>>>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU
>>>
>>>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>
> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, 
> the 
> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>
> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me in 
> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the remainder. 
>
> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>
> Cheers 
>

Once you admit that the witnesses are credible, your view of visitation 
issue will
radically change. AG 

> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:38:55 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > 
> > If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
> > your quest for knowledge. AG 
>
> 15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of 
> video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not 
> exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, 
> the 
> contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new, 
> I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all. 
>
> I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me in 
> the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn 
> something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core 
> details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the 
> pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read 
> articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the remainder. 
>
> You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos 
> are mostly a waste of time in my experience. 
>
> Cheers 
>

There are six witness testimonies, only 6 in 15 minutes, and IMO highly 
credible. That's why I posted it.
If you don't have the will and time to assess their credibility, I can't do 
anything to stimulate your curiosity. AG

> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 6:11:17 PM UTC-7, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> The fact these people were assigned to intelligence indicates something. 
> This was a balloon crash. The balloon though carried a payload that was 
> highly classified. It contained detectors and instruments that might detect 
> whether the USSR detonated an atomic bomb. They had not done so up to that 
> point, the year 1947, but the concern was that they might at any time. The 
> interest was in figuring out how a Russian test could be detected so if 
> they kept it secret it would be known by American INTEL and if they 
> announced a nuclear test that we could then have some verification of that. 
> Something went awry and it fell out of the atmosphere. The story about this 
> being a UFO crash provided a convenient distraction away from the actual 
> events. The USAAF and other military/INTEL agencies kept very quiet about 
> this and did not deny the UFO account. 
>

I know about Project Mogul. It wasn't a balloon at Roswell, which is what 
the witnesses testify to. Also, US INTEL did in fact, deny the UFO account 
a few days after the incident. AG 

Call it plausible deniability.
>
> The lack of radio signals from stars in the 1000 light year vicinity of 
> this galaxy probably suggests that intelligent life communicating with 
> radio do not exist. If they do exist they are communicating with encrypted 
> formats much like we do and have no interest in trying to "reach out and 
> touch someone," if you recall the old AT advert. I did an estimate that 
> indicated a galaxy like the Milky Way may have at most a few thousand 
> planets with complex life as seen on Earth. The probabilities any of them 
> have intelligent life coincident with us is pretty small. Intelligent life 
> in the universe may be very sparse and rare.
>
> UFO accounts and the rest fail to rise above what might be called a 
> credible signal to noise ratio. Real hard evidence of UFO accounts as being 
> due to alien artifacts and beings is crummy; there is very little there to 
> really hold onto.
>

Did you know about the recently declassified UFO study conducted with black 
money? It was officially terminated in 2012, but the former head said it 
continues and says he believes that intelligent extra terrestrials have 
visited and continue to visit. Google about it. AG 

>
> LC
>
> On Thursday, December 28, 2017 at 11:06:44 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
> wrote:
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
>>
>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU
>>
>>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 05:07:54PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
> your quest for knowledge. AG 

15 minutes of undirected "there is something in this 15 minutes of
video that I *think* will change your mind about..." is not
exactly encouraging enough for me to spend 15 minutes watching a video, the
contents of which I've mostly seen before. If there was something new,
I'd probably miss it anyway in the boredom of it all.

I _will_ spend 15 minutes thinking about something if you convince me in
the first 30 seconds that there is some likelihood I'll learn
something new in the process. That means abstracting out the core
details in the covering email, and supplying a time code of the
pertinent bits. There is a reason why most academics read
articles abstract first, then the conclusion before reading the remainder.

You have to convince someone it is worth their while. Youtube videos
are mostly a waste of time in my experience.

Cheers
-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Lawrence Crowell]

The fact these people were assigned to intelligence indicates something. 
This was a balloon crash. The balloon though carried a payload that was 
highly classified. It contained detectors and instruments that might detect 
whether the USSR detonated an atomic bomb. They had not done so up to that 
point, the year 1947, but the concern was that they might at any time. The 
interest was in figuring out how a Russian test could be detected so if 
they kept it secret it would be known by American INTEL and if they 
announced a nuclear test that we could then have some verification of that. 
Something went awry and it fell out of the atmosphere. The story about this 
being a UFO crash provided a convenient distraction away from the actual 
events. The USAAF and other military/INTEL agencies kept very quiet about 
this and did not deny the UFO account. Call it plausible deniability.

The lack of radio signals from stars in the 1000 light year vicinity of 
this galaxy probably suggests that intelligent life communicating with 
radio do not exist. If they do exist they are communicating with encrypted 
formats much like we do and have no interest in trying to "reach out and 
touch someone," if you recall the old AT advert. I did an estimate that 
indicated a galaxy like the Milky Way may have at most a few thousand 
planets with complex life as seen on Earth. The probabilities any of them 
have intelligent life coincident with us is pretty small. Intelligent life 
in the universe may be very sparse and rare.

UFO accounts and the rest fail to rise above what might be called a 
credible signal to noise ratio. Real hard evidence of UFO accounts as being 
due to alien artifacts and beings is crummy; there is very little there to 
really hold onto.

LC

On Thursday, December 28, 2017 at 11:06:44 PM UTC-6, agrays...@gmail.com 
wrote:
>
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 5:47:31 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 04:39:08PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > TL; DW? 
> > Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so many 
> presumed 
> > intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no 
> visitations. 
> > But we have! 
> > Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG 
> > 
>
> I know what the Fermi paradox is. I was asking why a video about the 
> Roswell "incident" sheds any light on it? 
>
> TL; DW (too long, didn't watch - by analogy with TL; DR). 
>
> Cheers 
>

If 15 minutes exceeds your attention span, maybe you should retire from 
your quest for knowledge. AG 

> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

On Sun, Dec 31, 2017 at 04:39:08PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> TL; DW?
> Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so many presumed
> intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no visitations. 
> But we have!
> Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG
> 

I know what the Fermi paradox is. I was asking why a video about the
Roswell "incident" sheds any light on it?

TL; DW (too long, didn't watch - by analogy with TL; DR).

Cheers
-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[agrayson2000]

TL; DW?
Read the Wiki link. Fermi found it contradictory that with so many presumed
intelligent civilizations in our galaxy, we have received no visitations. 
But we have!
Why do you have trouble connecting simple dots? AG

On Sunday, December 31, 2017 at 5:08:28 PM UTC-7, Russell Standish wrote:
>
> TL; DW. What the hell does this have to do with the Fermi paradox? 
>
> On Thu, Dec 28, 2017 at 09:06:44PM -0800, agrays...@gmail.com 
>  wrote: 
> > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox 
> > 
> > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU 
> > 
>
> -- 
>
>  
>
> Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile) 
> Principal, High Performance Coders 
> Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpc...@hpcoders.com.au 
>  
> Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au 
>  
>
>

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Re: Fermi Paradox defined and solved (in 15 minutes)

[Russell Standish]

TL; DW. What the hell does this have to do with the Fermi paradox?

On Thu, Dec 28, 2017 at 09:06:44PM -0800, agrayson2...@gmail.com wrote:
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qflfM4DITeU
> 

-- 


Dr Russell StandishPhone 0425 253119 (mobile)
Principal, High Performance Coders
Visiting Senior Research Fellowhpco...@hpcoders.com.au
Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au


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