There are a few ways to set a betting line. The two most common in this case are "over/under" where you disagree about the likelihood of some value - a typical example would be the value of bitcoin on some date. One of you picks a value they think is 50/50, and the other can bet that the value will either be "over" or "under" that value. The bet would be at even money. The second would be to give odds for the occurence of an event. So an example would be someone who says "Nikki Haley has no chance! She should just drop out!" and I would offer them odds of, say, 10000:1 that Nikki Haley is elected president in 2024. In both cases I'd also say the maximum I'd be willing to wager. (10000:1 is not fair odds, I believe the current betting line is closer to 300:1 against.)
— Charles On Sat, 27 Jan 2024 at 16:58, Yeddanapudi Radhika <[email protected]> wrote: > I'm definitely influenced by the endowment effect when it comes to > hoarding books on my shelf and there is definitely loss aversion in this > context. I'm wondering if the sunk cost fallacy explains why I cling on to > my place even though it's costing me an arm and a leg to retain it although > there are other variables acting on me like having built a whole life > around the location of said place (smells like a justification and it > probably is). I'm not sure I completely understand "setting a betting > line". > > On Fri, Jan 26, 2024 at 3:45 PM Charles Haynes via Silklist < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> One other way that economics (and specifically behavioural economics) >> has changed my way of looking at the world is that I'm now more aware of >> my own paradoxical behaviours. Like the endowment effect and the sunk cost >> fallacy. I have also found one tool to be particularly valuable and that's >> the notion of "setting a betting line." Which is a way of measuring my >> confidence in something. One thing I've noticed though is that people who >> do this are not always completely honest with themselves. In theory you >> should be willing to take "either side" of such a bet, but when I set a >> line like that, I'm often reluctant to take one side of the bet - which >> means I've set the line wrong and I'm lying to myself about how likely I >> really think something is. >> >> I'm not sure I explained that well, but in practice it works out to me >> asking people "how much are you willing to bet" if they say something I >> disagree with - and sometimes ending up actually making wagers with people. >> If you see me say something you think is outrageous I encourage you to ask >> me to put my money where my mouth is. :) >> >> — Charles >> >> On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 23:01, Jeremy Bornstein <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I would definitely do this for USD $500/day. For one, I am convinced >>> that it's in the realm of things that I (and most people) would get used to >>> quickly enough for the unpleasant aspects to fade to tolerability or even >>> pleasure. Also, I may have some minor masochistic tendencies... but not >>> enough of them to do this for $100/day. >>> >>> I don't believe absolutes such as "no amount of money" for things like >>> this. Imagine a million dollars, or more. Even for people who have >>> sufficient access to funds for their own direct use, that would represent a >>> huge amount of leverage for helping other people, which I think most folks >>> would eventually decide made the agony worth it. >>> >>> Of course, this potentially opens up the thought experiment to other >>> things even less universally appealing than cold showers, but I'm not sure >>> that actually discussing those possibilities would be sufficiently edifying >>> or amusing for us. >>> >>> Jeremy >>> >>> P.S. Apologies for the previous empty mails... it looks like my mail >>> client had been in a running broken state. >>> >>> >>> Clearly I cannot afford this but I still want to test the >>> longevity/sustainability of this decision - that USD 500 is enough. >>> >>> Can you convince yourself that you receive 500 dollars worth of health, >>> motivation and resilience benefits to withstand 180 seconds of 12-15 >>> centigrade water every. Single. Day. for a week? >>> >>> My assumption is that you’ll decide it isn’t worth it, even for USD 500. >>> >>> My motivation for cold showers (6 months of pure agony, I’ll add) is >>> twofold and deeply personal -watching my father die -cancer- and be >>> miserable about being cold, and my own mental health benefits enormously >>> from it (it is the hardest thing I can do in a day, everything else is a >>> piece of cake). But no amount of money would incentivise me to do this. >>> >>> Huda Masood >>> +91 9886796967 >>> >>> >>> On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 02:37, Charles Haynes <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> I would do the shower thing for somewhere between USD$100 and USD$500 >>> per day. ($100 is probably not enough, $500 definitely is.) >>> >>> One learning about money is that looking at investments daily makes me >>> unhappy and that for me the "asymmetry of happiness" is real - that losing >>> $100 makes me more unhappy than winning $100 would (and it's not just about >>> the non-linearity of the value of money, but it may be an endowment >>> effect). So in circumstances where good and bad things are both likely to >>> happen relatively frequently I try to "smooth out" the frequency by >>> checking less often. >>> >>> On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 07:52, Huda Masood via Silklist < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> Tell me then, in what other areas of your life have you applied the new >>> learnings with money? >>> >>> I find the human relationship with money extraordinarily interesting. My >>> current social experiment is asking how much could I pay them to take a 3 >>> minute cold shower every day, for a whole year. No hot water before or >>> after. >>> >>> I’ve had no takers so far. Everyone wriggles out with some condition or >>> the other. No amount of money is incentive enough. >>> >>> But they’d happily do it if family was in danger or they could work half >>> time for the same pay. >>> >>> I find that very telling. >>> >>> Huda Masood >>> +91 9886796967 >>> >>> >>> On Thu, 25 Jan 2024 at 18:27, Christopher A Kantarjiev via Silklist < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> On 1/24/24 10:16 PM, Udhay Shankar N via Silklist wrote: >>> >>> > Very interesting thought. The most thought-provoking part is "changing >>> > your mental model" which resonated with me, because the mental model >>> > which causes this to be an issue in the first place is "Am I being >>> taken >>> > advantage of?" (which is completely different from "Can I afford >>> this?" >>> > which requires a separate thread, I think.) >>> >>> Yes ... I grew up in a household where my father tracked every penny of >>> expenses and basically invented a double-entry bookkeeping system so he >>> could resolve his cash accounts Sunday night. I guess it was "fun" for >>> him, but hell for everyone else when he wandered the house saying "where >>> did I spent twelve cents?". >>> >>> It came both from a history of not having enough (he lived through WWII >>> in Germany) and a fear of being taken advantage of ... which I, somewhat >>> unfortunately, inherited. >>> >>> Those two things were very intertwined in my attitude towards money, and >>> this experience was a big step in learning to let go of them. >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Silklist mailing list >>> [email protected] >>> https://mailman.panix.com/listinfo.cgi/silklist >>> >>> >>> -- >> Silklist mailing list >> [email protected] >> https://mailman.panix.com/listinfo.cgi/silklist >> > > > -- > *Translator/Owner* > *AzulIndica Translations* > *North Vancouver BC, Canada* > > > > > >
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