This triggered an interesting memory, which I never really considered "betting behavior" but is similar: someone long ago would challenge strongly voiced opinions with "huh, would you bet your car on that?"
And I used to have some friends with whom I kept a running tally of nickel bets. Neither quite the same as what you describe - certainly never an effort to determine a line - but pointing at perhaps a similar idea, that we value "free" things less than those that have a value, however small. On January 26, 2024 9:16:05 PM PST, Jeremy Bornstein via Silklist <[email protected]> wrote: >Hearing this makes me want to take more extreme opinions around you. > > >On Sat, 2024-01-27 at 12:44 +1300, Charles Haynes wrote: >> One other way that economics (and specifically behavioural economics) >> has changed my way of looking at the world is that I'm now more >> aware of my own paradoxical behaviours. Like the endowment effect and >> the sunk cost fallacy. I have also found one tool to be particularly >> valuable and that's the notion of "setting a betting line." Which is >> a way of measuring my confidence in something. One thing I've noticed >> though is that people who do this are not always completely honest >> with themselves. In theory you should be willing to take "either >> side" of such a bet, but when I set a line like that, I'm often >> reluctant to take one side of the bet - which means I've set the line >> wrong and I'm lying to myself about how likely I really think >> something is. >> >> I'm not sure I explained that well, but in practice it works out to >> me asking people "how much are you willing to bet" if they say >> something I disagree with - and sometimes ending up actually making >> wagers with people. If you see me say something you think is >> outrageous I encourage you to ask me to put my money where my mouth >> is. :) >> >> — Charles >> >> On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 23:01, Jeremy Bornstein <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> > I would definitely do this for USD $500/day. For one, I am >> > convinced that it's in the realm of things that I (and most people) >> > would get used to quickly enough for the unpleasant aspects to fade >> > to tolerability or even pleasure. Also, I may have some minor >> > masochistic tendencies... but not enough of them to do this for >> > $100/day. >> > >> > I don't believe absolutes such as "no amount of money" for things >> > like this. Imagine a million dollars, or more. Even for people who >> > have sufficient access to funds for their own direct use, that >> > would represent a huge amount of leverage for helping other people, >> > which I think most folks would eventually decide made the agony >> > worth it. >> > >> > Of course, this potentially opens up the thought experiment to >> > other things even less universally appealing than cold showers, but >> > I'm not sure that actually discussing those possibilities would be >> > sufficiently edifying or amusing for us. >> > >> > Jeremy >> > >> > P.S. Apologies for the previous empty mails... it looks like my >> > mail client had been in a running broken state. >> > >> > >> > > Clearly I cannot afford this but I still want to test the >> > > longevity/sustainability of this decision - that USD 500 is >> > > enough. >> > > >> > > Can you convince yourself that you receive 500 dollars worth of >> > > health, motivation and resilience benefits to withstand 180 >> > > seconds of 12-15 centigrade water every. Single. Day. for a week? >> > > >> > > My assumption is that you’ll decide it isn’t worth it, even for >> > > USD 500. >> > > >> > > My motivation for cold showers (6 months of pure agony, I’ll add) >> > > is twofold and deeply personal -watching my father die -cancer- >> > > and be miserable about being cold, and my own mental health >> > > benefits enormously from it (it is the hardest thing I can do in >> > > a day, everything else is a piece of cake). But no amount of >> > > money would incentivise me to do this. >> > > >> > > Huda Masood >> > > +91 9886796967 >> > > >> > > >> > > On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 02:37, Charles Haynes >> > > <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > > I would do the shower thing for somewhere between USD$100 and >> > > > USD$500 per day. ($100 is probably not enough, $500 definitely >> > > > is.) >> > > > >> > > > One learning about money is that looking at investments daily >> > > > makes me unhappy and that for me the "asymmetry of happiness" >> > > > is real - that losing $100 makes me more unhappy than winning >> > > > $100 would (and it's not just about the non-linearity of the >> > > > value of money, but it may be an endowment effect). So in >> > > > circumstances where good and bad things are both likely to >> > > > happen relatively frequently I try to "smooth out" the >> > > > frequency by checking less often. >> > > > >> > > > On Fri, 26 Jan 2024 at 07:52, Huda Masood via Silklist >> > > > <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > > > Tell me then, in what other areas of your life have you >> > > > > applied the new learnings with money? >> > > > > >> > > > > I find the human relationship with money extraordinarily >> > > > > interesting. My current social experiment is asking how much >> > > > > could I pay them to take a 3 minute cold shower every day, >> > > > > for a whole year. No hot water before or after. >> > > > > >> > > > > I’ve had no takers so far. Everyone wriggles out with some >> > > > > condition or the other. No amount of money is incentive >> > > > > enough. >> > > > > >> > > > > But they’d happily do it if family was in danger or they >> > > > > could work half time for the same pay. >> > > > > >> > > > > I find that very telling. >> > > > > >> > > > > Huda Masood >> > > > > +91 9886796967 >> > > > > >> > > > > >> > > > > On Thu, 25 Jan 2024 at 18:27, Christopher A Kantarjiev via >> > > > > Silklist <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > > > > On 1/24/24 10:16 PM, Udhay Shankar N via Silklist wrote: >> > > > > > >> > > > > > > Very interesting thought. The most thought-provoking part >> > > > > > is "changing >> > > > > > > your mental model" which resonated with me, because the >> > > > > > mental model >> > > > > > > which causes this to be an issue in the first place is >> > > > > > "Am I being taken >> > > > > > > advantage of?" (which is completely different from "Can I >> > > > > > afford this?" >> > > > > > > which requires a separate thread, I think.) >> > > > > > >> > > > > > Yes ... I grew up in a household where my father tracked >> > > > > > every penny of >> > > > > > expenses and basically invented a double-entry bookkeeping >> > > > > > system so he >> > > > > > could resolve his cash accounts Sunday night. I guess it >> > > > > > was "fun" for >> > > > > > him, but hell for everyone else when he wandered the house >> > > > > > saying "where >> > > > > > did I spent twelve cents?". >> > > > > > >> > > > > > It came both from a history of not having enough (he lived >> > > > > > through WWII >> > > > > > in Germany) and a fear of being taken advantage of ... >> > > > > > which I, somewhat >> > > > > > unfortunately, inherited. >> > > > > > >> > > > > > Those two things were very intertwined in my attitude >> > > > > > towards money, and >> > > > > > this experience was a big step in learning to let go of >> > > > > > them. >> > > > > > >> > > > > > >
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